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Pats Posits

Pats Posits: Winding Down on 2014

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Maybe it was the excessive (and wonderful) celebration at the parade yesterday, or just the realization that the offseason is now upon us, but I’m starting to feel the football void now.

I still can’t seem to shake the horror that the miracle Kearse catch brought upon me. Not even the elation of Butler’s pick could get that feeling out of my system. I’m sure it will fade in time, but for now it still can’t quite sink in what the Patriots pulled off.

It’s funny how you look back on all the debate surrounding the team since last offseason, about who they did or didn’t sign, about the games they lost early in the season and why, about their strengths or weaknesses and what would be their fatal flaw.

In the end, it comes down to one play, made or missed.

Sometimes the answers are just too simple when we need to write and talk about sports 24/7. If the Patriots make an interception in 2007 or 2011, the script is completely flipped. If Butler misses the interception or Lynch powers it in, the script is completely flipped this year.

But the breaks went the way they went, and this Patriots team can be remembered as “great” while the other two who couldn’t make that last play are just footnotes in NFL history. 

So for all the talk of the Pats shitty offensive line, or lack of a deep threat or great pass rush, none of that really matters today. But of course, it will matter going forward this offseason as weaknesses must be strengthened.

Two stats are most remarkable to me, and speak directly to the kind of football this team played to win the Super Bowl is their red zone offense that went 12-for-14 in three playoff games and their third down defense, which only allowed a first down 23.3%. That’s just a ridiculous level when you consider they’ve been in the 40%-50% range the last four years.

Red Zone defense had come to define this defense in 2014, but they were quite as elite in the playoffs as they had been toward the end of the regular season. However, they were clutch.

Overall they allowed TDs on 8 of 11 opponent red zone possessions. But those three stops, were what allowed them to take the lead and beat the Ravens and Seahawks.

So now the blog will transition to the team-building portion of the season. I love watching football games, but I find putting the 2015 Patriots together pretty enjoyable (and less stressful) as well.

Pats Posits: The Patriots are Super Bowl Champions!

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This one means the most to me. Yes, I grew up a Patriots fan and spent plenty of time watching the old Patsies getting their asses handed to them in the old Foxboro Stadium, so the first Super Bowl win was special.

But it was after the 2005 AFC Divisional loss to the Broncos that I realized that Brady and Belichick had an unknown end date and a finite number of chances to win it all, that my Pats passion truly kicked into another gear.

Then, in 2007, when my real job slowed to a crawl due to a strike, I found an ad on Craigslist saying you could get paid to blog about your favorite sports team. After a trip back to see the ‘07 Pats beat the Steelers, when I saw a banner being flown over Gillette Stadium saying the Pats’ Super Bowl wins deserved asterisks, I decided to start blogging.

Since then I’ve written exclusively about the Patriots, analyzing their team building process and schemes, breaking down all the wins and losses, through thick and thin. It’s been over seven years, thousands of blog posts and millions of page views.

The disappointment of the season endings from 2006-2013 was ever-compounding. Maybe Patriots fans are spoiled, but to miss out on the playoffs is one kind of disappointment. To keep getting so close to the ultimate goal on the biggest stages and continually fall one play short is another kind.

Needless to say my bond to this team has grown exponentially since becoming a Patriots blogger. So to finally win the big one again and to be able to “celebrate” it with my online audience and fanmates, this is a new kind of special.

I want to thank every one of you that have supported this blog with your clicks, questions, conversations and t-shirt purchases. You’re the ones who make this incredibly fun, and why I keep doing it despite it not being even close to a money-making venture.

It’s still sinking in this morning. When it looked like the Patriots were going to lose another Super Bowl on another miracle catch I was beside myself, pacing in another room away from everyone, where I could just see the TV.

I always say you can’t truly appreciate a win unless you’ve accepted at some point there’s a good chance you’re going to lose. Well I don’t think I’ve ever accepted a loss more than I had last night as the Seahawks lined up for their final two plays.

To have Malcolm Butler come through and make a huge play – a play the Patriots defense couldn’t make in 2007 or 2012, well, I am not sure the words that do it justice other than poetic and perfect.

I can’t even look at the Kearse catch this morning without re-feeling the pit that was in my stomach when he came up with it. Truth be told, I didn’t even have my eyes on the screen when he caught it. I had half the TV blocked and only saw Wilson throw it up, then listened for the result.

So today, the Patriots are once again Super Bowl champions and the razor-thin margin of victory is every bit as thin as it was in their two Super Bowl losses.

The win embodied everything the 2014 Patriots were. Clutch red zone stops by the defense and a surgical and diverse passing attack, led by the greatest quarterback of all time.

I’m going to enjoy this one for a while, but inevitably we’ll be back at the bottom of the mountain once again, looking up at Super Bowl 50, one that will take place in Tom Brady’s hometown, with a chance for Brady and Belichick to break every Super Bowl record in the book.

Not that I’m on to 2015 just yet, but still…

Pats Posits: An Epic Game to Spark an Epic Playoff Run?

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Where do I begin? I guess by saying that this was one of the best football games I’ve ever watched and really, it was a lot closer than I thought it was going to be. Tip of the cap to the Ravens, who, despite being a different team than they were in 2009-2012, played the same way – fearless – and had a great gameplan to attack the Pats’ weaknesses.

But the Patriots did what they do, fought for 60 minutes and used every trick in the book to get the victory. There’s so much to break down, let’s get to it.

I never expected the Pats to come out so tight and get so dominated on defense. Thank Hoodie they recovered their two fumbles early in the game or this one would’ve started out even worse than 2009’s playoff game, as if any of us ever thought that would be possible.

Flacco went back to what worked in 2012 – attacking the middle of the field. Even when they stopped those passes, the run defense remained a problem. Most concerning is that even with their heavy front of Wilfork-Siliga-Branch, they were still getting pushed around by a patchwork Ravens offensive line. That is not good and will have to fixed immediately. 

We talked about it all year, the Pats short yardage run defense on third and fourth down was near the bottom of the NFL, as they were stopping runs for a loss or no gain. Those problems continued yesterday and the Ravens knew to attack them there. 

Early in the year when the run defense was struggling it was more about simple fundamentals, this time I’m not so sure. I need to take a better look once the All-22 comes out. But I think overall, without looking back yet, the entire defense was often just out-physicaled across the board and that’s a bit surprising/disheartening when I thought they had a chance to really set the tone.

Chandler Jones was not nearly as dominant as we were all hoping he would (and needed) to be. The pass rush with the bigger nickel front (with SIliga instead of Chris Jones) was non-existent. This is troubling, but it’s also part of what makes the Ravens so tough for the Patriots. The Pats can’t sell out for the pass by putting a DPR like Ayers in there so they get stuck in a middle ground where they had to force coverage sacks. And even with multiple defensive backs on the field, they still weren’t buying enough time for the rush to get there.

But this matchup is done with and the Pats coverage/rush will match up better with their next opponent. Still, the defensive ends have to be better.

Perhaps most interesting with the defense was that they flipped the script on their strengths and weaknesses. Red Zone defense, the hallmark of the defense in the second half of the season made just one stop (albeit a critical one that saved the game), going 4-5 on the day.

Meanwhile, their third down defense, a weakness for them this year, held the Ravens to 1-9. Some of that was mitigated by their 3-3 on fourth downs, but still, these two major statistical areas were anomalies when it comes to what we thought we knew about this Patriots defense.

Despite their up-and-down game, they came through in the clutch, almost with a nod to the shitty Patriots defenses of the past few years by sealing the game with a timely interception. The double 14-0 holes and game-saving turnovers felt like an uncomfortable tribute to 2009-2012.

Let’s turn to the offensive side of the ball, where outside of the awful interception, Brady had maybe his best playoff game against a tough opponent in some time. The fact that the game-winning touchdown came on a 20-plus pass, Brady’s greatest area of criticism, was nice. That was an absolute pinpoint pass.

The trick play and four offensive linemen wrinkle were classic touches from a coaching staff that is always looking for an edge. Great execution on both as Belichick and McDaniels broke out the chess board on the checkers players once again.

This game showed what the Pats lacked in past years to get the job done – multiple weapons. Every receiver – Edelman, Gronk, Amendola, LaFell, Vereen and even Hooman – came through with big catches. In years past, there was never that kind of depth and clutch play. That bodes well going forward.

Those who were calling for the Pats to “spread them out” certainly got their wish and the multiple point deficits certainly reinforced that. I’d have never thought the Pats could win a game where they could not and did not run, but that just shows how good Brady and the passing offense was.

The offensive line wasn’t perfect, but they did enough within the scheme to get the job done. Losing Stork (not expecting to see him again this season based on the reports) is a blow, but the Pats have the pieces to make it work. Now we have to be happy that Josh Kline got some playing time at the end of the regular season. Wendell knows what he’s doing at center, but a potential re-match with Terrence Knighton and the Broncos could be concerning.

This game had so many momentum shifts – it was back and forth all game long and we were all on the edge of our seats the entire time I’m sure. It was the most stressful non-Super Bowl game I can ever recall.

Most of the close playoff games of the Patriots dynasty have had much longer sustained momentum on both sides of the ball, but this one was back-and-forth almost from snap to snap.

While it wasn’t their best game, the playoffs are only about winning and hopefully it will be a wake up call at just the right time. The defense can and will play a lot better, and there is plenty to build off coming out of this one. But also plenty to correct.

When was the last time the Pats had a huge win like this in the divisional round? Indy in 2004. Otherwise, beating the Jaguars, Jets, Broncos, Texans, and Colts have felt more obligatory than tough wins that could be built off of. Certainly none of those had the same effect this game should have on the team.

Confidence, not only in their own resiliency, but in that they can play much better, should be sky high.

Next week will be another stiff test, especially if it’s Peyton and the Broncos, and the Pats are well aware that this kind of performance, especially on defense, will not cut it.

But for the moment we can enjoy the best playoff win in Gillette Stadium playoff history. The crazy epicness of the Bill Belichick’s Patriots lives on for another game.

Pats Posits: Bring On The Ravens

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In Bill Belichick’s episode of A Football Life, which had inside access to the Patriots’ 2009 season, he told his team before their regular season matchup with the Ravens that this was a team that was “in it for the long haul. I know it. You know it. They know it”.

Belichick probably didn’t realize how true his words were. This will be the fourth time the Ravens have come to Foxboro in the last six playoff seasons, and really, they’ve outplayed the Patriots in all of them despite having lost the 2011 AFC Championship.

In 2009, the Ravens hit the Patriots in the mouth on the first play, as Ray Rice went 80-plus yards for a touchdown on a carry right up the middle. 

In 2012, the Patriots simply had no answer for Joe Flacco in the second half as he marched right down the field on them, outscoring the home team 21-0 in the last two quarters.

The Patriots broke up a potential Ravens game-winning touchdown in the end zone in 2011, and got a huge break when the game-tying field goal was missed. That was New England’s only win and it was far from convincing that the Pats were the better team.

This is what has a lot of Patriots fans skittish about the Ravens coming to Gillette this Saturday. The main points of concern are Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs matching up with the Patriots’ tackles – Nate Solder, who has regressed in his fourth season, and Sebastian Vollmer, who recovered after a rough start to have a solid season.

The Patriots’ offensive line is always a huge focus of a playoff run, because let’s face it, every time New England has bowed out of the playoffs, it’s been a leaky line, usually in the middle, that is the culprit.

The way I see it, Solder and Vollmer are going to have to have great games at some point if the Pats are going to win the Super Bowl. Whether it’s this week against the Ravens or next week against the Broncos (hopefully), there will be no free passes.

Otherwise, this playoff matchup really flips the script on what we saw from 2009-2012 when these two teams played. 

The biggest difference for Tom Brady is Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are no longer around. I think a lot of Baltimore’s “fearlessness” we hear being talked about with them coming to Foxboro, was from Reed and Lewis.

Reed was the best free safety in the history of the game in Belichick’s view. A player he and Brady would dedicate entire meetings to. The lack of that kind of player, and the time needed to focus on him, is an immediate bonus for New England.

Baltimore has a good defense, led by their front seven, but it’s not the kind of Hall of Fame defense we saw two years ago that was ready to meet Brady head on. Pats O vs. Ravens D was a push back then, now the advantage is on the Patriots side.

We saw a taste of this in 2013’s Patriots blowout of the Ravens in Baltimore. And that was with Logan Mankins playing left tackle and no Rob Gronkowski, not to mention Brandon LaFell or Tim Wright.

On the other side of the ball, there is no comparison to this Patriots defense now and the patchwork squad they were putting on the field from 2009-2012. This is now a defense with one of the best secondaries in the game and a front seven that is just hitting its prime.

Can anyone really argue that the Ravens’ offense now is better than it was with Ray Rice, Anquan Bolden and even Dennis Pita in their prime?

I love that the Patriots will get a shot at ending the Ravens season and putting an end to the Ravens’ dominance over them of late in the playoffs. There’s something about the Ravens that will immediately get the Patriots attention and that’s a good thing.

Not that the Pats wouldn’t be locked in on another opponent, but with the Ravens there’s just a little something extra.

As much as some might want an easier first playoff game, it’s going to take three great games from the Patriots, regardless of their opponent. They’ve been up for every challenge the last two months and this game will be no different.

It will be a fun week of hype, but remember, this isn’t 2009-2012.

Pats Posits: If Not Now, When?

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I’m not sure how much we really need to talk about yesterday’s game against the Bills. The only thing that really matters is that the Pats got out of it without a catastrophic injury. Yeah, a couple guys limped off but I’d think with the bye week, everyone should be ready to go for January 10th’s playoff opener.

So let’s talk a bit about 2014 with today’s Posits, a season where the Patriots returned to a level of dominance not seen since 2007. As I’ve said before, the Patriots’ teams of 2010-2013 always felt flawed on the defensive side of the ball with a dash of limitations on offense.

2010 was the best example of this – a defense that had to rely on turnovers to preserve wins and an offense that was almost entirely based on the short passing attack.

The 2014 Patriots finally turned the page to a defense that can win simply with their red zone prowess, while their offense can challenge all levels of defense. They still have the deadly “scalpel” (aka dink and dunk) that they can run at a devastating pace, but the health of Gronk, emergence of Brandon LaFell and rotating backfield have given the Pats some new dimensions.

2013 was about overcoming injuries. We knew the Pats were on borrowed time, so when they lost in the AFC Championship in Denver, no one was overly disappointed. The 2013 team took things as far as they could.

But now our expectations are high and it’s hard to to think “if not now, when?”.

The 2014 Pats are not without their weaknesses, but short yardage situations on both sides of the ball are hardly glaring problems. They also appear to be susceptible to tight ends, and can have periods of ineffectiveness on offense, but overall this Patriots team is as strong going into the playoffs as we’ve seen under Bill Belichick.

Some quick hit thoughts on the players and schemes of 2014 before we jump into the playoffs.

The emergence of Hightower and Collins as legitimate NFL stars will be somewhat overshadowed by the Revis and Browner of it all. They came of age against the Broncos where the Pats started really employing double A gap pressure (or at least faking it) with their linebackers. I’m left wondering how the rotations would’ve worked if Mayo hadn’t gotten hurt, because I can’t imagine taking Collins or Hightower off the field. Mayo will be a major storyline this offseason, but I’d be fine to turn the page to Hightower being the full-time defensive leader. He might not be as fast as Mayo but his physical strength makes more of an impact than Mayo’s speed. I also think Hightower just has a better feel in coverage that makes up for that extra step Mayo might have.

Collins is right there with Hightower, and learning to be patient might be the best advancement of his game this year. He has the speed and athleticism that allow him to diagnose in that split second post-snap, then fly to the ball. Collins can do it all and he’ll need to be an impact player this next month for the Pats to make the Super Bowl.

They have to re-sign Revis. Belichick and Brady don’t have forever and when you have a corner like Revis in house, one who can be the center of an entire defensive game plan, you have to keep him.

Sealver Siliga and Chris Jones built on their 2013 seasons and both seem like long-term building blocks on the DL. Siliga especially is a great find and he should be able to ease the inevitable transition from Wilfork.

For Wilfork to come back from an Achilles tear like he did was amazing. And now, with a solid DT rotation around him, he should be fresher for the playoffs than he was from 2010-2012, when the Pats effectively ran him into the ground.

Chandler Jones’ injury was unfortunate, but how the Pats got by with Akeem Ayers without him was pretty amazing too. Ayers has seen his role subside since Chandler’s return, but he’ll be a big part of the playoffs against heavy passing teams. 

The offensive line might be the headline weakness of the 2014 season, led by Nate Solder’s regression Dan Connolly should hopefully be healthy for the playoffs and his presence is much-needed. But after center, I don’t think any OL spot is off the table this offseason.

Between Edelman/Gronk/LaFell/Wright, the major pieces for the Pats offensive weaponry is in good shape, but the running back position will be one to watch this offseason. I really have no clue how that will all play out. Do Ridley/Vereen come back? Is Jonas Gray a building block? How much of a role can Blount play? Great questions,  and maybe the answer lies in the draft.

Upgrading the SS spot will be another area to look at this offseason. Chung started strong and is good against the run, but he was exposed in pass coverage more and more as the season went along. Tavon Wilson seemed to be getting more and more looks as well. Maybe he’s an option. But someone with size who can cover would be ideal, not that those guys grow on trees.

Still, Revis will be the first chip to fall this offseason, followed closely by McCourty. Both are vital in my view.

Heading out of town for an overnight trip, then I’ll be back later this week with the final three GIFs of the season and some early playoff thoughts.

Here’s to a great 2014, with more big wins, especially on the road, than we’ve had in a while around here. Expectations are sky high now, but I know the Pats will bring it.

Pats Posits: I’ll Miss Rex (Kind of, but not really)

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Waking up to another vacation day, with the Pats locking up homefield advantage and the best overall record in the NFL once again, well, it doesn’t get much better than this. In a way, the season is over and it’s been a successful one, on the level with the best seasons of Bill Belichick’s tenure.

 I truly feel the Patriots have as good a shot at the Super Bowl this year as they’ve had. That excites me and scares me.

There will be plenty of time to worry though. For now, let’s wrap up some remaining thoughts from the Jets game. I expected that to be a tough game, but I didn’t think the Pats’ offense would look quite as bad as it did. 

Sure, Rex has almost always given Brady problems and the Jets front four are definitely good and Dan Connolly was out, but still… it’s a little unnerving to see them be so ineffective. Their 231 yards was the lowest output of the season. 

More on that and all the other takeaways in the Posits:

It was a pretty solid day for the defense, at least when it mattered. They seemed to be playing a little more zone as they’ve done the past two weeks, and without much pass rush, Geno was picking us apart for a good deal of the game.

But the Pats’ defense came through in the clutch, with another great performance (0-3) in the red zone. The Pats are 6th overall in opponent red zone TD percentage, and the best team in the league over the last three games.

They’re 16th overall in third down defense, but 5th in the last three games. So yes, it would seem the Pats’ defense is playing its best ball at the right time of year in the critical situations.

As for the offense, it’s understandable that there are some concerns but the offensive line isn’t a bigger problem to me now than it’s been all this season. 

The struggles against the Jets were mostly communication, which is somewhat understandable with the Jets’ complicated blitzes and the inexperience at  left guard and center. Connolly hasn’t been great physically, but he does ensure everyone will be on the same page and that is worth a lot.

This season has been a turning point for me, because I’ve ignored special teams too much. They’ve been one of the Patriots’ biggest strengths but I haven’t written enough about them. You look at the games the Pats have won by a thin margin and almost always it was a big special teams play, or even just consistency in the kicking game, that has made a big difference.

There’s no question – the Patriots are incredibly hard to beat at home, and their excellent road play this year has only helped prepare them to win the only road game they could possibly still play – the Super Bowl in Arizona.

I can’t quite wrap my brain around returning to the site of Super Bowl 42. The memory of that game is still burned in my brain and I can’t see that stadium without flashing to David Tyree. While it would be nice to have a shot to rewrite those memories, it’s a little scary too.

After last night, I sure don’t feel as scared of the Broncos as I once was. I don’t want to jump on the “Manning’s lost it” bandwagon, but I think Denver could struggle to get out of the first round, especially if the weather is bad.

We know the Pats can beat any time in the AFC at Gillette Stadium. As for the NFC, let’s just hope it’s a bloodbath.

Look for the Pats to do some resting of players this week against Buffalo. But I’d like to see the offensive line get their house in order against one of the best DLs in the NFL in the Bills.

Here’s to a great regular season! If you only determine your football satisfaction by how the team does in the playoffs you’re almost never going to be satisfied. But this regular season was incredibly satisfying. There were ups and downs, but as the season progressed we saw some of the best all-around football we’ve ever seen in New England. 

There doesn’t seem to be that one critical flaw this year like in recent years past – the one thing the Pats were able to hide all year that could come back to bite them in January or February. They have their weaknesses in small specific areas, but this is a balanced team that can beat you any number of ways.

As a defense guy, just getting to watch a defense that can win games again was incredibly satisfying. They’ll have to keep it up in the playoffs, but for now we can relish another superlative season.

Pats Posits: Primed Pats Seal Another AFC East

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Maybe we should’ve expected the Pats to come out flat yesterday given the roller coaster of cross-country flights and big games over the last two weeks. Settling back in against the Dolphins should’ve been motivating after the Week 1 loss, but it’s understandable that the team didn’t have that same fire right out of the gate.

Still, they found their game in the locker room at half time and never looked back, turning what looked like a divisional game that would go down to the wire into a hat-and-t-shirt clinching domination.

The 2014 Patriots are AFC East champions and now there are just two games left to stay healthy and maintain the top seed in the AFC. 

Here are my thoughts on yesterday’s win…

Chandler Jones cam back and played a surprising 55 of 78 snaps. As I thought might happen, the Pats used both Chandler and Ayers in a pass rush front, with Chandler shifting inside. I never thought Chandler would be so dominating after an extended injury break, but he showed that while Ayers was a solid fill-in, Chandler is capable of wrecking a game on his own. The rest should put him in position to cause havoc in the playoffs.

Jonas Gray once again sparked the team with his running, showing a burst out of the backfield that neither Blount or Vereen were showing. Still don’t love the run blocking right now, but Gray has an unmistakable ability to get something out of nothing and that’s just what the Pats needed yesterday. Let’s hope we see plenty more of him the next two weeks.

Once again it was the Edelman, Gronk and LaFell show, the best trio of weapons the Pats have had at once since Hernandez/Gronk/Welker in 2011 and 2012. But this group feels even tougher to defense because they challenge a defense on all levels. I continue to hope Wright/Vereen/Amendola can take advantage of the lessened attention, there should be a chance to get those guys a little more involved the next couple weeks.

I don’t know how else to put it – the defense looks primed for a Super Bowl run. The only key is to avoid a major injury in the next two games. Yes, this scares the crap out of me, especially with Rex Ryan facing the Pats for the last time. I don’t want him to give us one last parting “gift” on his way out in the form of an injury. Fingers crossed, but with our luck at the end of the season with injuries the last few years, I’m trying to not think about it.

The defense has given up just 3 points in the second halves of the last three games combined. I think that tells you everything you need to know – that this defense is “elite”. Once they see what is being thrown at them, they adjust and shut it down. This is the best defense since 2004. Period.

The versatility and dynamic use of Hightower/Collins/Ayers/Chandler/Ninkovich has taken the Pats pass rush to the next level. In the old days of the 34, the advantage was you never knew who would blitz. That advantage is back, but now it can come from anywhere, from anyone. The front seven is dripping with a combination of size, strength and athleticism. They will give every offense in the NFL problems.

The Boston Herald reported that Arrington’s injury doesn’t appear to be serious. That’s good. I’m not sure why Malcolm Butler/Logan Ryan/Alfonzo Dennard keep getting sudden starts at the nickel spot, but Arrington is clearly the best and needs to be in there full time for the playoffs.

On to the Jets…