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Pats Posits

Pats Posits on Preseason Schedule

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Today is the day of the most anticlimactic news of the offseason – the release of the preseason opponents. Not the dates or the times, just whose mostly scrubs will play whose mostly scrubs this summer.

Of course this pales in comparison to the real schedule that will be out in a couple weeks and the Pats opening night opponent which could come as soon as next week, but for now we’ll take it.

The things I look for in preseason games are a variety of challenges. Different types of offenses and defenses that will give our team some experience facing schematic departures from what they’ll be seeing when practicing against themselves.

Opening with Green Bay is a nice way to kick things off, especially since they’re a well-coached and established team with an excellent quarterback. That will help as we cycle in the new cornerbacks.

Traveling to New Orleans in Week 2 also provides a top quarterback/coach tandem to go against, but also some experience in a dome. Also Rob Ryan’s defense should provide some good challenges for an offensive line that could very well have some new faces.

Week 3 is usually when we see the most of the starters and going against Carolina on the road will be a great tuneup for Tom Brady and the offense. Cam Newton certainly will present some unique mobile quarterback challenges for the defense as well, something they’ll value after facing two pocket QBs the first two weeks.

Finally, we wrap up with the Giants, per usual. This game is usually a scrub fest so it’s hard to take much out of it other than getting to see Eli Manning’s dumb mug sitting on the sideline in a hat.

Pats Posits: Regrouping on the Free Agency Front

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The initial rush of free agency is over and yet, even more holes remain for the Patriots than when it started. Yes, they signed Jabaal Sheard, a slam dunk fit for them by all accounts. But significant questions remain at guard, running back and cornerback. Here are some thoughts on what the current rumors and what the Pats might do next.

– There were reports on Thursday that Eagles guard Evan Mathis could be available via trade, and then a later report said the Pats were “interested”. Who know what “interested” really means. If it means they made a call to see what the Eagles want for him, it’s one thing. If it means they’re ready to actively pursue him, it’s something else. Still, the fit makes sense and if they could get him and Connolly back, they’d be in good shape headed into the draft, where I’d still expect them to take a guard by the fourth round. Mathis would be similar to Brian Waters in 2011, who gave them one great year at the end of his career.

– The next shoe to drop could be at the running back position where Reggie Bush and CJ Spiller remain available. Even if it’s not one of those two guys, the Patriots will almost certainly make an addition at this spot. I don’t really have a favorite of the two, though Spiller is three years. Both have had their injury issues and would bring an element of risk.

– As for cornerback, I don’t know what the immediate answer is. There are still a couple names out there, but with new free agents getting released every day, maybe the Pats are waiting for something we can’t predict. 

Of course, that’s the optimistic approach, although Chimdi Chekwa, despite doing nothing of note in Oakland was once a pretty highly regarded cornerback taken in the 4th round.  Far from a lock he even makes the team, much less plays cornerback, but this is what the Pats do. Most of us felt the same way about Rob Ninkovich when he was signed.

Still, I know the thought of a Dennard-Arrington-Ryan-Butler starting secondary is scary at the moment. There will be changes.

– Terrence Knighton came off the market late Thursday, not that I really saw him as a target. Instead I think Red Bryant is more intriguing and a lower-risk signing. Of course the could also bring back Alan Branch as well. Still veteran options out there, but the core is likely going to be Chris Jones/Siliga/Easley and possibly a high-round pick. Randy Starks would be another guy who’d fit, or they could just bring back Wilfork.

– Just don’t see the need for any of these big name wide receivers like Dwayne Bowe or Stevie Johnson. Michael Crabtree would probably make the most sense to me.

– Still would love to see Scott Chandler come to New England. He’d be a perfect addition with Gronk and Wright, essentially upgrading Hooman both as a blocker and receiver. Not to mention he’s killed the Pats recently. BB always seems to go after guys like that. Anthony Fasano would be another good choice.

Patriots Free Agency Day 1 Posits

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Let’s dive in on what we know, because by the time I post this there will probably be new news I’m missing.

– First, of course, is the big news of Darrelle Revis going back to the Jets. This was unexpected and I wrote that I thought he should’ve been the Pats top priority, however Revis wanting max money ruined that plan. Revis was everything we hoped for in 2014, shutting down every top receiver in sight and now the Pats are stuck. Brandon Browner also did not have his option picked up so the Pats essentially have to re-build their outside cornerbacks now.

The cupboard is not completely barren. While no one thinks Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan or Malcolm Butler are Revis and Browner, they are all experienced corners who can at the very least provide depth. And who knows just what Butler’s ceiling is, he might be the best of the bunch. And of course, there always Kyle Arrington, one of the best slot corners in hte NFL despite being a popular whipping boy for Pats Nation.

The Pats still have plenty of cap space and while the corner market isn’t super sexy, things are still far from set.

– The Pats signed Brandon Gibson first, a receiver who had some promise under Josh McDaniels in St. Louis before getting hurt against the Pats in 2012 and never getting back on track. He went to Miami for two years and was eventually passed on the depth chart. This is classic Pats, sign a guy a former coach/exec knows and likes and see what he does with Brady. Might not make it out of camp, or injuries could break his way and he could click with Brady. Amendola’s future could be tied to his roster chances as well. Not a sexy signing, but the kind that the Pats have built their dynasty on.

– Jabaal Sheard visited the Pats Tuesday night and I love his potential fit in New England. Specifically he’s a left defensive end who’s tough against the run, but also has the ability to stand up a bit from time to time as the Pats will often as their defensive ends to do. He can also pass rush a bit so he could be a designated rusher at times off the edge as well. Most important he’d be a legit third defensive end to rotate in with Ninkovich and Chandler, something they haven’t really had. I see him as a more gritty option that Akeem Ayers, who skews more toward playing from a two-point stance and in space. Here’s hoping they lock him up.

– Some other names that have popped up that the Pats could be interested include Titans linebacker Colin McCarthy, a mobile middle linebacker from the Titans who missed 2014 with a shoulder injury. Again, a total Pats-type guy – good player who has been devalued due to an injury. He could be good insurance behind Mayo and Hightower depending on their statuses.

– The Pats were tied to just about every free agent running back who can catch on Tuesday – Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller and Roy Helu being the big three. With Shane Vereen walking, there’s no question they need to add one of these guys. And with Helu signing in Oakland, they’re already down an option. Bush or Spiller could be on the docket shortly.

Sunday Non-Pats Posits

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I’m going to try and work in a new weekly post each Sunday here that will feature some commentary about what went down around the rest of the NFL, especially with the Pats biggest rivals. These are always some of my favorite weekend reading, especially during the offseason, so here are mine.

LeSean McCoy Traded for Kiko Alonso – I was somewhat disappointed by this week’s big trade because I was curious to see how Rex used Alonso. As for having to see McCoy twice a season I’m not really all that concerned. The one time the Pats saw McCoy in the 2011 regular season he had just 31 yards on 10 carries, though he did have a 2-yard TD. There’s no question he’s a good weapon, but we’ve dealt with Jackson and Spiller for years and they were never a huge problem. Until the Bills get a QB I’m skeptical of them legitimately threatening the throne.

Speaking of which, the Bills also got Matt Cassell this week. Yawn. We saw him last year with Minnesota. Right or wrong, Brian Hoyer would’ve scared me a lot more. We’ve always known what Cassell can and can’t do. Sounds like he’ll just be mentoring EJ Manuel, who has performed well in spots vs. the Patriots the couple times he’s played us. Still, I think the Chiefs remain a good model on how to beat the Patriots – efficient QB, explosive running back, dominant front seven. Of course, that’s the formula, baking it into a “Beat the Pats” cake requires a 60-minute nearly mistake-free game while also catching the Pats on one of their off days.

Brandon Marshall is back in the AFC East and again, until the Jets find a quarterback who can at least be consistent, I’m not exactly sure how much we should be worried. Marshall had just 3 catches for 35 yards in 2014 vs. the Pats. So yeah, this is another point in why it’s so important to retain Revis.

Lot of rumors swirling that the Dolphins are the favorites to land Ndamukung Suh, which would obviously give make a very good front even better. Suh is just the kind of player that can cause the Pats problems, even moreso than their vaunted edge rusher Cameron Wake. If the Phins get Suh it will put even more emphasis for me on upgrading the guard spots, at least one of them. Clint Boling was a favorite of mine coming out and I think he’d make sense.

Some have asked me what happens if the Pats lose BOTH Revis and McCourty. I don’t really see that as an option. The corner market is already drying up. If the Pats don’t spend on them I don’t know where they spend and they HAVE to spend.

It will be a crazy week and I expect to be surprised by a Pats move at least once.

Pats Posits: There is No Offseason

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I finally started to dive in on the draft this week after taking a nice three week somewhat-hiatus from the grind of the blogging hobby. The draft is a whole subset of NFL fans and it’s pretty much Thunderdome, especially on Twitter. 

Hoodie help anyone who drops a full mock draft because there will be immediate backlash against pretty much every fake pick you make. 

I keep going back to Belichick making fun of meteorologists this season, because draft prognostication isn’t too much different. There are plenty of folks out there who done a ton of great work and research and they deserve credit, and they love this stuff far more than I. But I appreciate their work and I use much of it in putting together my research. 

Put it this way, I love the draft, I hate the social media atmosphere leading up to the draft and prefer to stay out of the fray.

At the end of draft weekend you’re left with 8-10 players, plus a few free agents in the week following, and then I find it much more fun to analyze how those players who are actually now part of the team fit. You know, instead of projecting how 300+ guys could possibly fit. 

But it’s a long offseason so we all need something to keep us busy, so if the draft if your bag, go for it.

The way I do the draft here on the blog is by putting together a 50 prospect big board and trying to hit as many Patriots picks as I can. You can see the last four years of big boards here. 

Then I’ll drop a mock draft the week before the draft. I don’t claim to know much about scouting, but I think I know the Patriots system and the kind of players they look for. In seven years of following the Pats’ drafts I think I’ve learned a lot about the process and how they use the draft.

Here’s how I’ve done:

My goal for this year remains to break 50% on the big board.

Some thoughts as I’ve gotten into the research are that everyone is accurately projecting the Pats to pick a guard (AJ Cann) with their first pick. The Pats mock draft cycle is often in sync for most analysts who know the team and this is no different. Still, a lot can change after free agency, so the biggest rule is to never fall too in love with one prospect.

I don’t think wide receiver or defensive end are huge needs at this point, but there seem to be a lot of players who really fit the Pats’ system. It’s important to think about drafting replacements a year before you need them, and with Chandler Jones entering his final year and Ninkovich on the wrong side of 30, it might smart to snag a big DE now and develop him this year.

Similarly, I think the big nose tackles are extremely intriguing. We’ll see how things play out with Wilfork, but I could see one of the highly-regarded prospects being targeted in the first round there as well.

Another area to look at is linebacker, where the Pats’ depth is razor-thin and that’s before knowing what will happen with Jerod Mayo.

Put it this way, there are quite a few things to play out before March 10th before we can really get a bead on the draft needs. Outside of the long-range needs at DE/DT, interior OL, there’s not a lot we can say definitely at this point.

Still, it’s exciting to have an offseason where I’m not depressed about how it ended. The 2015 Pats will be different, but there’s no doubt, they’ll be very good.

Pats Posits: Development Needed From These Key Patriots

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The most unrecognized form of offseason team building is the development of players currently on the roster. Too often the general mode of thought is that if the team was weak at a position, they must sign a high-priced free agent or use a high-round pick to upgrade it.

But there are players already on the roster that could blossom with healthy offseasons or just the chance to get on the field.

Here are some of those kind of Patriots who will hopefully elevate their play with a good offseason and step into a more significant role next year.

Dominique Easley: Easley showed some flashes in his rookie year but was ultimately shut down and told to get ready for 2015. I still have high hopes for the 2014 first rounder, potentially to surpass Chris Jones as the top interior rusher. Easley surprised me with his ability to play some defensive end  as well against the Colts (see below). He should have all of his excellent burst back in 2015 and I expect he should make a big impact.

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Tim Wright: Wright had 26 catches for 259 yards and six touchdowns after being traded for Logan Mankins. Now, with a full offseason in the playbook and a chance to really be integrated into the offense, we could see Wright take off and help the Pats show some more 2011/2012-esque looks with the two tight end offense.

Aaron Dobson: With the emergence of Brandon LaFell, Dobson has become an afterthought for many in Patriots nation, but he does have a unique skillset and some downfield speed that isn’t present on the rest of the roster. The 2013 second rounder is facing somewhat of a make or break year, and dethroning LaFell as the top X-receiver seems like a tall order given LaFell’s superlative physicality, a trait the Patriots coaches love. Still, there could be a third or fourth receiver role for Dobson. His first task, showing a more well-rounded game than Brian Tyms to secure a roster spot.

Zach Moore/Michael Buchanan: The lack of depth at defensive end continues to be a story for the Patriots headed into this offseason. Can Moore or Buchan develop into a legitimate third defensive end who can rotate with Chandler and Ninkovich? That’s a big question. The Pats overcame the midseason loss of Chandler by acquiring Akeem Ayers, but he seems like a possible better fit at linebacker than defensive end. If Moore and/or Buchanan can develop, it will take a major offseason need off the board.

Sealver Siliga: Vince Wilfork is due a $4 million bonus on March 10th and there’s no guarantee the Pats will pick it up. Perhaps Wilfork can be re-structured, but if not, it will be up to Siliga to take over as the top interior space eater for the defense. Siliga showed some brilliant flashes in 2014, but once again struggled with injuries. He needs a healthy and productive year in 2015 to continue to his development and ascension.

James White: Shane Vereen had a redshirt year in 2011 and James White had a similar one in 2014. With Vereen hitting free agency, there’s on guarantee he’ll return. Is White ready to step into the lead receiving back role? That might be a stretch, but it could certainly be there for the taking if Vereen walks.

Malcolm Butler: The Super Bowl hero doesn’t want to just be remembered for one play, so it will be up to him to take significant strides this offseason. What is his ceiling? He can play man defense, but how is his zone awareness? There are still a lot of questions about Butler, but his knack for making plays on the ball is undeniable. Could he unseat Kyle Arrington in the slot? That might be his most direct route to full time status, assuming Revis and Browner return.

Pats Posits: The Sound and the Fury

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I’m not sure what’s better about winning a Super Bowl – the happy, glowing feeling I’ve had all week, or being able to watch all the extensive Super Bowl coverage after the game.

The last two Super Bowls I went into a football hibernation immediately as the games ended, and have never watched Inside the NFL, Sound FX or Turning Point from either of those debacles. 

All that changed this week, with each of those three programs giving great behind the scenes sites and sounds. Plus all were at least an hour long and just filled with Patriots goodness.

Here are some thing that stuck out to me in getting these revealing looks behind the game.

– Julian Edelman steals the show. We know Edelman has put together two years that have elevated him to being one of the best receivers in the game (note I didn’t give him the dreaded “slot receiver” qualifier), but this game should put Edelman up there as a Patriots’ legend. He went toe to toe with Richard Sherman and was a leader on the field, picking his teammates up throughout the game. His catch on third-and-14 will never be forgotten and was the spark that started the comeback. I was just blown away by how much heart Edelman plays with, something you can see in any game, but it’s even more magnified when you can hear what he’s saying all game long.

– It’s funny how Belichick literally uses “Do Your Job” constantly. Now that it’s been turned into a team slogan and is all over hats and t-shirts (I’d like to think I helped blaze that trail), it remains a main coaching point for BB. Getting a chance to hear him coaching up the team on both side of the ball is always a treat. I especially liked him telling Brady in the fourth quarter how Seattle was reeling on defense and would struggle to put together three good plays. The gist of the message? Just no negative plays.

– Brady’s pregame speech about being honored for winning this game got things a little misty in the Ministry of PatsPropaganda. Brady seemed locked in all game long, but it was good seeing Josh McDaniels telling Brady to let his first interception go.

– I gave Richard Sherman some credit yesterday for going to shake Brady’s hand immediately as the game ended, but Sherman also went to shake Brady’s hand after the first Seattle interception. I don’t like to celebrate a Super Bowl win at anyone’s expense, but it really feels good to shut up Sherman as far as we’re concerned for the foreseeable future.

– The Patriots short passing attack was as deadly as it’s ever been in this one, surgically picking apart the Seahawks defense. Take away Brady’s two interceptions and I’m not sure this one isn’t a Patriots blow out. The entire game plan just illustrates how well-coached and prepared the Patriots were. The Seahawks had no answers on defense. Still, some won’t give the Pats any credit for this kind of attack for whatever reason, but it’s an offense in complete harmony and it’s something special to watch.

– Found it strange how much the Seahawks were telling each other they were “the best” on the sidelines". I guess it’s a confidence thing.

– There were just as many Patriots telling each other that the loved each other. Maybe that is telling.

– The credit goes to Belichick and the Patriots coaches for the final play. This has been lost in the “should they have called timeout” or Pete Carroll’s playcalling debate. The Patriots were prepared for that play and did not flinch, even on their one-yard line. They earned this Super Bowl win and deserve more credit than they’ll probably get.

Now we just have to wait for the fourth installment of Three Games to Glory!