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Pats Posits

PatsPosits: Spikes is back

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I know Brandon Spikes is somewhat of a polarizing figure in Patriots Nation, mostly because of his “four years a slave” tweet after leaving New England last year. Personally I never really held it against him. New England is certainly not an easy place to play and isn’t for everyone. Spikes always struck me as a guy who would say what was on his mind, but also with a slightly off-center twist and I filed those comments as such.

What I’ve always been consistent on is that Spikes is a superlative run-stopping linebacker. I wanted to retain him last year because simply put, Spikes is better at one thing that just about anyone else on the defense.

Now I know the knocks on Spikes and he’s never going to be a third down linebacker, running with tight ends and running backs across the flat. But there are ways around that, especially if Collins and Mayo are healthy. Might he get exposed by some early down play action? Sure, but I’ll take the tradeoff for the attitude and heavy downhill play against the run that he does bring.

The Patriots defense want to be able to play any kind of game, to morph into whatever defense is necessary, and the one defense they didn’t quite have without Spikes is one that can make consistent plays in the run game behind the line of scrimmage.

I feel like I hit on these stats every week, but once again they were the worst team in the league on third or fourth down with two or less yards to go. 81 percent of the time they gave up a first down. That is a huge weakness when you realize those are blown chances to get a stop and get off the field.

Spikes instantly helps in that area and the impact will be significant.

Add in the attitude and the on-field presence Spikes bring and I can’t help but look forward to that edge returning. Ninkovich had this to say about Spikes’ trash talk:

“Clever, cruel, all of the above,” Ninkovich said. “It’s entertaining for me. I always enjoy it.”

Here’s the updated depth chart on defense as Chimdi Chekwa was released to make room for Spikes. Roster currently is at 90.

PatsPosits: Fonzie (Dennard) has jumped the roster

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The short and somewhat tumultuous Patriots career of Alfonzo Dennard came to an end today as the team released him. It’s somewhat of a surprise given Dennard had started his fair share of games as an outside corner in 2012 and 2013 and the Pats don’t really have any other proven outside starting corner on the roster, at least that has experience in the system.

Dennard’s first two years were marred with legal trouble but even though those were cleared up this season he ended up buried on the depth chart and unable to transition to the slot, a place he might picked up some more playing time.

It seems impossible to know where the line between performance, attitude and injuries was for Dennard, but some details are now coming to light.

Reportedly Dennard didn’t always have the commitment necessary in Foxboro, so it would seem the writing was on the wall for a while now. With multiple rookie free agents being signed, cutting Dennard not only opened up a roster spot but also freed up nearly $1 million in cap space.

Not much changes as far as the cornerbacks go, it’s going to be an open competition and the best three guys will win the starting roles out of camp. While Dennard had some good man coverage abilities and was a feisty corner, he was undersized and useless in the 2013 AFC Championship when forced to cover Demaryius Thomas. 

PatsPosits: The Patriots 2015 Draft Picks Are In!

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It’s now my favorite time of the draft season – the Pats have made their selections, there’s no more speculation and now we can dive in on figuring out how it’s all going to come together.

First, a quick look at my own performance in predicting the Pats’ picks. I was just 3 of 11 on the big board but did hit two of the picks in my mock draft (Tre Jackson and AJ Derby). Not bad, not great, about the average of my draft prognostications so the quest to hit 50 percent of the picks continues.

Generally, it’s hard not to immediately notice the focus on defense in this draft. Three of the first four picks went to the front seven, and overall they added at least two players at every level of the defense.

The common theme is athleticism and versatility, hence why this draft felt like Belichick was like a kid in the defensive player toy store.

Elsewhere, they were far more strategic. Everyone knew they should double-dip on guard and they not only did that but also added Georgia center David Andrews as a free agent. That’s three good interior lineman additions and they were all much-needed.

Then there’s long snapper Joe Cardona out of Navy, a pick so Belichick it hurt. Cardona is a perfect storm of everything the Pats love – superlative talent coming out of Navy. If the Navy gives him the okay, Cardona will be the Patriots long snapper for a long time.

Let’s dive in on the specifics!

I’ve left the starting left guard spot open because I think Dan Connolly will now re-sign and take that spot. If not I still have MAJOR questions because Tre Jackson is likely only playing right guard. Can Shaq Mason work at left? He’s undersized but super athletic.

I am not surprised as some are that running back and wide receiver were not addressed significantly. There’s some unproven talent but it is talent. I want to see what Dobson/Gibson and Gaffney/Gray/Cadet show up to camp with. All are big candidates to step into a role this year.

So really on offense not a whole lot has changed. They reinforced the guard spot, which was an absolute necessity but even still some questions remain there. Once again it will be interesting to watch the competition in camp, with some rotation likely to still be going on in the early part of the season.

How many of these new rookies can legitimately contribute to the defense this year? Brown is a slam dunk but after him it gets murky. That’s why special teams might have the most interesting of all the positional battles this sumeer. That’s what happens when just about every guy you select is a special teams demon.

Grissom is probably the most intriguing guy to me outside of Brown. He’s kind of like the Jamie Collins of this class, an athlete who never quite found his position. Belichick knows how to use those guys. Is Grissom a defensive end or a stand up linebacker? That’s the first question that needs to be answered, but he has the athleticism to do just about anything.

Flowers enters an interesting edge group where young players like Buchanan, Moore and Bequette will be trying to take a step forward this year. Jabaal Sheard took some pressure off of Chandler and Ninkovich, but if they can find a legitimate 4th edge option it will be a very good thing.

Wells has incredible athleticism, but I am not sure we’ll see him playing linebacker any time this season. Still, he could be an intriguing cover guy at some point, perhaps sooner if injuries hit.

Finally, we end in the secondary where it will be a thunderdome at every spot except Devin McCourty at free safety. It’s hard to even pencil anyone anywhere because injuries will surely play a part.

Ultimately, I’m not that concerned about the secondary if the front seven lives up to the talent and athleticism they’re dropping with.  Once again it should be a great training camp filled with great competition.

PatsPosits: Draft Day 2 – Return of the Who Dat picks?

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I’ve been laser-focused on just the Patriots’ draft strategy for a while now, and as yesterday once again proved, I (and everyone else) have no idea what they’re doing. Everyone has their opinions about who’s going to go where and how they’d fit in the system, but at the end of the day we’re all clueless compared to the son of the guy who literally wrote the book on football scouting.

I don’t want to disparage the two newest Patriots – safety Jordan Richards and DE/OLB Geneo Grissom, upon further review both have a lot of very Patriots-y traits. But both positions seem far below guard and cornerback in the needs department. 

Both players were completely off my radar, but I’m finding myself certainly intrigued by Grissom. He seems like the defensive end version of Jamie Collins. An exciting athlete who just never had a base position in college. The hope is that the Patriots will find a role for him and once he’s able to fully focus on that, he’ll blossom.

Richards is a little more of a head scratcher. Yes, he seems like a Matthew Slater-level leadership guy so I get that part of it. But can we expect he’ll beat out Tavon Wilson, much less Duron Harmon or Patrick Chung? Nate Ebner might be the most realistic competition for him. And for a second-round pick, that feels wrong.

I gave up trying to rationalize or defend the Patriots drafts a long time ago. It would not be much of a surprise if both these day two picks bust – but that doesn’t mean I’m rooting for them to do so.

I do think it’s a bit interesting that the first three picks have all gone toward the defense, with two of them having a distinct “pass rusher-y” feel to them. The athleticism of the defense should be through the roof this year.

The Patriots have seven picks today, that’s a ton of players who, despite being day three picks, could legitimately play starting roles this year. It happens every year, and that includes the undrafted free agents they’ll pick up the rest of the weekend as well.

The important thing to remember is we cheer for our team not so they can get draft praise from Mel Kiper and other pundits. We want them to win and at this point how can we really get that upset? Only time will tell if RIchards and Grissom become the next Tavon Wilson and Jermaine Cunningham or the next Devin McCourty and Rob Ninkovich.

PatsPosits: I heart defensive linemen picks

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As anyone who’s read this blog for a while now knows, I am always down to take a defensive tackle in the first round so I was excited when Malcom Brown was the pick.

In my mock I had them taking Eddie Goldman. Really it was almost a coin flip for me between Brown and Goldman, and the reason I went to Goldman instead was he was a little bigger and (I thought) a little more likely to still be around at 32.

So this is doubly good. Why? Because Brown was a lot better than the 32nd best player in this draft and the Pats added another player who can disrupt things up front.

Since 2010 I’ve almost worn out the interior pass rush drum from beating it so much. In today’s NFL, with so many good quarterbacks, you simply must have defensive tackles who can cause problems immediately off the snap and either get in the QB’s face or push one of his offensive linemen back into his lap. 

Now the Pats have Easley, Chris Jones and Brown who can all get off the ball. However, Brown’s greater size makes him an even more useful tool because he should be a good run deterrent on passing downs as well. That was a big role of Wilfork’s and while Siliga should see snaps there as well, Brown’s all around game should help him make some pass rush impact.

He won’t have to instantly play 80 percent of the snaps like Wilfork was doing, but I’d bet his playing time just keeps increasing as the season goes along.

Who’s Next?

As I’ve been saying here, this next pick looks like prime guard territory, and with the Jets adding Leonard Williams the need for a big mauling guard upfront has never been bigger.

AJ Cann and Tre Jackson are two names at the top of my list. Pats might have to trade up for Cann, which I think is reasonable. Otherwise a surprise cornerback could make sense as well.

With three picks today (one of which cannot be traded) they have the ammo to move up if they choose to.

PatsPosits: Counting down to more counting down

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The draft is here! Tonight! Probably. If not, tomorrow because you know the Pats are probably going to ditch 32 for a high second rounder.

I can’t let today pass without a brief lament for the old days when the entire draft was on s weekend and I’d just sit around eating and drinking all day enjoying it. I can still remember trying to figure out how to get Wifi hooked up in my old apartment so I could actually post things to the internet DURING the draft. 

Oh, how times have changed. Now I get to watch large chunks of the first two rounds from work, with a drive home sprinkled in in the middle. I might try to recreate the old weekend magic on Saturday but there just isn’t the same excitement for rounds 4-7.

Perhaps you’re like me and you’ve got draft fatigue by this point. The constant speculation of who could go where and whether or not the  team might trade up or down, it just gets tiresome.

Because in three days the Pats will have drafted a handful of guys, be in the process of signing a bunch of other rookie free agents and then we can cease the speculation and dive in on how these new players fit into the puzzle.

Until then we’ll just tough it out and try to enjoy it all. 

What will the Patriots do tonight? Of course, it’s impossible to predict, unless we’re talking about last year when there were quite a few of us who had a bead on Easley. 

This year it seems Eddie Goldman has a lot of Pats pundit support and I am on that train as well. I don’t think they can go wrong with a front seven defender pick tonight, whether it’s a big tackle like Goldman, or even an athletic DE/OLB.

The runner-up in a lot of mocks from guys I trust is Laken Tomlinson. He’s a good fit at an area of need but the question will be if they could get him 5-10 picks later.

All things being equal, it’s hard not to think there’s at least a 50 percent chance the Pats are trading out of today.

The value between 32 and 35-45 is not all that different, and if they can add another pick, maybe for next year, it would fit their past methodology of maximizing value.

Still, I can make a pretty good argument for trading up into the mid-20s. The Pats have nine picks and not a lot of front line holes on their roster. Outside of a guard is there really another position where they wouldn’t be at least solid to open training camp? 

Sure you want to maximize competition and there could easily be rookie starters at running back, cornerback and perhaps linebacker if the right players fall to the right spot.

But it shouldn’t be surprising that the most impactful draft moves of the past few years were the two trade ups to get Chandler and Hightower in 2012. Those two picks were key in this year’s Super Bowl win, and with okay depth almost everywhere on the roster, a trade up for an immediate impact player like those two guys would make a lot of sense.

The thing about the Patriots is they are completely unpredictable, unless you include Easley last year. That’s what makes them so much fun to follow, other than the winning. They’re could be trade ups, trade downs, trades for players, or a surprise pick that could go completely outside the schematic specifications we’ve come to understand.

I fully expect to have at least one shock moment in the next three days, with “who the hell is that guy they just drafted” being the most likely case.

Regardless of draft fatigue it will be a fun three days. Let’s hope the Pats fill some holes and bring in some players we can all be excited about.

Pats Posits: The 2015 Campaign

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Here it is, your 2015 Patriots schedule. So what are the takeaways?

The road to San Francisco isn’t exactly treacherous, but it certainly will provide plenty of challenges, so it might be a little early to start looking for tickets for Super Bowl 50.

Bye Week is Week 3 – Always would prefer it be later rather than just a few short weeks after they break training camp. But having two big road games coming out of the week off should give BB a good chance to plan for Romo and Luck back-to-back. Of course this includes 10 days off after their opener as well, so it will be a slow start to the season before things really kick in in October.

Divisional Games – The road to the playoffs always starts through the division and I like how they’re spread out – one in early September, then two at home back-to-back in late October, then one in November, then finish off the season with two away games. Hopefully those last two are meaningless because if the division is still in question at the end, things could get a little dicey.

Primetime – Two Thursday Night national games including the opener, two Sunday Night national games and one Monday nighter.

General posits:

It’s a forgiving September which is a good thing since the Pats usually have at least a couple where they’re flat and one all-out stinker around then. That at Buffalo Week 2 has always been a close one and with Rex there now I don’t expect anything different.

October might very well define the season with big away games at Dallas and Indy, then hitting the Jets and Dolphins back-to-back. Having those games at home is a big plus.

After a MNF game vs. the Bills they’ll have a short turnaround to get out to Denver to play the Broncos on Sunday Night Football.

The potential gimme games are spread out nicely. Jaguars in September, Redskins in early November, Titans in late December. No game is a true gimme in the NFL, but at least on paper their easier games come at good times.

However their long Thursday Night – Sunday mini-bye week comes leading up the Redskins. But that will be a welcome 10-day break in early November.

Overall it’s not quite the bear than 2014′s schedule was, but there are plenty of challenges just like there always is. The meaningfulness of those last two divisional road games is what will be most interesting to see play out.

Once again, the rest of the AFC East must beat the Patriots in Foxboro if they’re to have any chance at all.