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Pats Posits: Will there be another shocking move over Labor Day Weekend?

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I remember sitting in a diner getting a late breakfast over Labor Day weekend 2009 when the shocking news of Richard Seymour getting traded to the Raiders broke. The Pats had already lost a bunch of talent that offseason – Harrison/Bruschi retired, Vrabel and Ellis Hobbs were traded – the defensive rebuild was in full effect. Trading Seymour, one of the only elite players still in their prime left was a jaw-dropper.

But that’s just how the Pats do business and we shouldn’t be surprised if a similar move happens this weekend. Here are some thoughts on who it could be and other areas of interest as we start to gear up for the start of another season.

– Chandler Jones makes some sense. First, defensive end depth is very solid. They would still be better than last year with Ninkovich/Sheard/Flowers as the top three. Second, Jones will be due $7.79 million next year and then would require another huge contract. I like Chandler as a player more than most but I don’t think the 2015 Pats would be much worse-off without him. The Pats will need 2nd and 3rd round picks next year to make up for the lack of a first. If someone dangled a 2nd for Chandler they might have to take it.

– But the cap savings on Chandler are minimal this year, that’s why it might be a season too soon to move him.

– I’m not as sold on moving one of the tackles. Vollmer could make sense but I don’t want to move Solder. Given Vollmer’s injury history, would anyone be comfortable with Cannon and Fleming as our starting tackles? That’d be a very real possibility if they traded Solder. Moving Vollmer would save $3.4 million.

– Cannon could be another guy who goes, but that’d only open up $800K of cap space.

– Patrick Chung just got extended but cutting him would open up almost $2 million. With great strong safety depth I wouldn’t totally rule it out.

– Lotta people scrambling to find a fullback to replace James Develin but I don’t really see it. When they find a fullback they like and who fits, they use him but it’s not like the position is absolutely necessary to their offense. Nice piece to have but I believe they can plug Hooman in or honestly Shaq Mason (if he’s not starting at guard) into that kind of blocking role.

– I just don’t see Mike Williams making the team despite trading for him. Still see him as more a tackle than TE.

Pats Posits: Panthers part deux

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 1. After watching the rest of the defensive snaps I have to say I was impressed with Rufus Johnson. Didn’t put him on the 53-man yesterday, but I think he’s in the conversation for the 53rd man. Tough year to be a breakout DE on this team with two drafts picks, one coveted free agent and two entrenched starters. I’d love to be able to keep him but it might have to (hopefully) be on the practice squad. Johnson is good with his hands as a pass rusher, but he had his struggles against the run.

2. Dax Swanson showed up a couple times, but it’s Bradley Fletcher who I think is sneaking on now. He’s been pretty quiet for most of camp and preseason, but against the Panthers he showed up as a starter. The Pats gave him a pretty big contract, and while Tarrell Brown has outplayed him, there still could be plenty of use for him. 

3. I’d love Logan Ryan to find some consistency this year and hopefully on the “good” side. He swings so hot and cold at times – forcing a fumble or breaking up pass, then immediately whiffing on a jam at the line and getting beat for six. 

4. I mentioned it in the last Posits but hooddamn he’s disruptive. It’s going to be very interesting to watch how he affects this defense on the whole. Let’s remember that even with Revis and Browner last year, the pass defense only went from 14th overall to 12th overall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. The minor uptick is because there still hasn’t been a consistent pass rush from the Patriots the last two years while they were running Ninkovich, Chandler and Wilfork into the ground. Now it will be pass rush by committee and it looks very exciting.

5. Jordan Richards really impressed me after a closer look. It’s scary how much he reminds me of Chung. Very physical and fearless taking on a tackle. I think he’s a promising addition and the defensive player who really won me over in this one.

6. I’m all in on Dion Lewis. He’s bounced around the league a bit but he has the savvy of an experienced veteran, making tough yards and something out of nothing a number of times. He was inspiring confidence with his play and with so much uncertainty in the backfield you have to keep a guy who looks that solid.

7. Dobson redeemed himself with a better second half. Still, the negative plays are killers and I feel like the only way we ever see him catching a ball is into his stomach. He certainly doesn’t attack the ball and that’s a problem. 

8. I think Garoppolo would be fine if he has to start the regular season for us. They’d manage what he’s good at and with Gronk and Edelman out there he’ll look pretty good. The question for him will just be avoiding the killer mistakes. If he can do that the Pats would win at least two of the first four, if Brady’s suspension stands. Which it won’t.

9. Scott Chandler is a little quicker than I anticipated and he had a real good first showing. I am curious how they balance him and Gronk, but as everyone is well aware, they’ll make a tough duo to cover.

10. Not much out of Brandon Bolden, but I still think he’s probably the Week 1 starter on early downs, with a combo of Lewis and White on third down. A sprinkling of Jonas Gray to see if he can loosen up the defense at all with his hard-running style.

Pats Posits: 10 things from the Pats-Panthers game

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1. Sucks about Develin. The only thing I truly care about is staying healthy in the preseason and this was the first significant blow. This locks down the Hooman’s roster spot because he can play some fullback as well. Depending on how bad the break is Devlin could be a candidate for the IR with designation to return, though we still have one game to go and they can wait to see if anyone else gets dinged.

2. The Pats offense pretty much always looks flat well into September. Even when it was the trusted Light-Mankins-Koppen-Neal core they still had clunkers early in the season. Clearly having an all-rookie interior offensive line in and mostly unfamiliar weapons around Brady did him no favors. 

3. I do have my concerns about the running game, just a tiny bit, but mostly in short yardage situations where they struggled last year. Losing Develin sure doesn’t help that either. But again, we’ll see how it looks with Stork and Wendell back in there.

4. Bit disappointed in Dobson. Good touchdown, but I still think LaFell is such a better fit for the offense they want to run. Not that I thought Dobson was beating out LaFell, but I at least thought he might’ve learned to use his body a little better. I really wanted to see him fight more for the ball. He just doesn’t look to me like he plays the kind of football the Patriots want to play.

5. I think this will be the most mix-and-match defense you’ve seen in Belichick’s history, and it’s definitely his most diverse. There used to be a formula for base defenses – stopping the run, matching nickel or dime when three or four receivers came on – but now athleticism and specificity are the only requirements. Only one or two defenders on the field will technically be defensive linemen. The rest a versatile cast who can beat you with toughness (50/54), speed (51, 99), athleticism (95) or a combination of all three of those (91).

6. This will also be true in the secondary where I’m starting to believe they will play more man than anyone expected this year, when they think they can match up well. I’m not sure about anyone but Butler and Tarrell Brown at this point.

7. Tavon Wilson was reduced to playing dime linebacker on the second team. I think he’s probably done now.

8. Was bummed not to see Cadet last night, but now with Develin out I think it makes it a little easier to keep him. Again, he has more career receptions than any other RB and as much as Lewis and White have flashed, Cadet is unique.

9. Easley is finally starting to look as incredibly explosive as he did in college. I am very, very excited by this and there will be a few GIFs coming of him just blowing plays up in the backfield. It’s impressive to watch and he’s going to be a beast.

10. Once again it “felt” like the Patriots. Bend-don’t-break defense, offense starts slow but comes through at the end. No matter how things shake out over the next week-and-a-half, this will be a good team that contends right down to the end once again.

Re-watched the first half defensive snaps, will take a closer look at the rest of the game over the next day as I missed plenty having to use the NFL Game Pass feed.

Pats Posits: Catching Up as Pats Head to West Virginia

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It was a slow day here on the blog the last couple of days because I spent all of Sunday frolicking in the waves at the beach and that pretty much put me out of commission on Monday. Yes, I am getting old. But the good news is going to be at 9pm can really recharge the batteries so let’s dive back in on some stuff that I missed the last couple days.

First, let’s get some deflategate nonsense out of the way with the news that Brady will attend settlement hearing tomorrow in New York. Mike Florio mentioned last week that though the judge said Brady and Goodell didn’t have to attend, it’s a good idea to show up and send a message to the judge how important this is. So I think it’s a good idea Brady’s attending. 

The other interesting bit of news is that witnesses can be called tomorrow. Florio thought McNally and Jastremski were outside of the realm of possibility but those attached to the investigation certainly are not, so yes, I’m holding my breath and praying Jeff Pash, Ted Wells or, less likely, Mike Kensil have to testify under oath. If this hearing really is about whether or not the process was fair to Brady then it seems reasonable to think these guys have some explaining to do. 

Now for some football stuff – Pats traded Jordan Devey to San Francisco today for tight end Asante Cleveland. I think this is mostly a depth move to avoid having to play Gronk or overuse Hooman in the preseason games. They’re down Chandler and Bequette right now.

Of the other injured guys I’d most like to see back out there soon, Stork and Cadet top the list, but Flowers and Butler aren’t far behind. Most of all I’m curious how Cadet looks compared to White and Bolden, especially catching the ball.

Lot of defensive backs rotating positions the last couple days as well with the safeties seeing time at corner and the corners playing both inside and outside. Don’t read too much into this. Now is the time to get guys some reps at different spots. Better to do it now than have to throw them into it cold in the middle of the season because of an injury. It also lets the coaching staff look at how versatile the guys are.

Pats also have an open roster spot. Here’s the current depth chart as I see it (guys on PUP are at the bottom, obviously LaFell will be back at the top when he returns).

Looking forward to some quality practice reps against the Saints the next two days.

Pats Posits: 15 Thoughts on Pats-Packers Preseason

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And we’re off! Who cares about the scoreboard, there was a ton of new information to process. Here are my initial reactions to the players and plays of preseason week one.

1. The defense looked pretty good. They played plenty of man defense and generally the coverage was better than we probably expected. Malcolm Butler has picked up right where he left off, being right there to make a play on the ball multiple times.

2. Chandler Jones can’t seem to get the respect Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins get, but Chandler is very very good. He’s long, athletic and really playing the run well. He’s a force and could be in for a monster season.

3. Jabaal Sheard really impressed me with his strength in all facets of the game. He looks like the perfect fit we’ve always thought he would be.

4. Jonathan Freeny played most of the game and had some ups and downs. Still, in a mostly special teams role I think he’s close to a lock to make the roster. 

5. Slot cornerback Robert McClain impressed me with his tenacity and making at least one nice pass breakup (that was unfortunately negated by a Ninkovich offsides penalty). 

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6. Darryl Roberts also had his moments before leaving with a hand or wrist injury. Roberts looks like a good fit to go the route Butler went last year, assuming Tarrell Brown continues his hold on the likely starting right corner spot.

7. Upfront I thought the defensive tackles ran hot and cold. Easley and Brown both had their moments in both directions. Antonio Johnson looked okay and could possibly sneak onto my next roster projection.

8. Down game for Tavon Wilson I thought, just not making the plays when he’s right there. Wilson will need to be better but it appears that a strong camp didn’t translate in this game. Meanwhile Jordan Richards looked like he fit right in.

9. Tre Flowers looks like an exciting addition, let’s hope he’s not injured significantly. What a sack on Rodgers!

10. On offense I have to start with the guards, Mason and Jackson, who I thought did pretty well, especially in the run game. I know the pass protection was ugly overall, but I think these two rookies have real promise.

11. Really wanted to see a big play out of Jonas Gray and he delivered. His long touchdown is a big highlight coming out of this one.

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12. James White was up and down for me as well. But I liked some of his moves in space, getting extra yardage. I’m thinking he will work in tandem with Cadet to replace Vereen.

13. Overall Garoppolo looked about how we expected. A little slow at times, but still making some good throws in the face of porous protection. If he has to play a game or two he’ll be fine with a real OL and Gronk/Edelman.

14. Brandon Gibson shot to the top of the WR competition behind the big three. Dobson and Tyms are hurt and Boyce hasn’t progressed. Gibson is my top X now until LaFell returns or Dobson re-enters the conversation.

15. Where did Rufus Johnson come from? Wow, not a mention about him anywhere from camp. I had him as a linebacker, but he’s a DE and really stood out. The DE position is a log jam right now, we’ll see if he can sneak on but might take an injury.

Pats Posits: Notes on the Early Days of Camp

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We’re fighting the good fight on two fronts this summer. First, and most important, is training camp. And there’s Deflategate, which took a turn on Friday for the Patriots’ good, and seems to be headed for a conclusion as quickly as the judge can make it happen.

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Let’s stick to real football today, with things that are sticking out to me right now.

– Having Jerod Mayo full-go and Dont’a Hightower close to full-go is an amazing development to start camp off. I thought there was a realistic chance both would start on the PUP list and without Spikes or Fletcher, there’s basically be Jamie Collins as the only legitimate starting NFL linebacker in camp. Just having the veteran presence to make all the calls is going to help the defense get up to speed a lot quicker. 

– Speaking of Collins, he continues to look like a superstar in the making. I watched a lot of his film this offseason and I was only more and more impressed with how well-rounded he is. I would love to see what he does when there’s a complimentary cover linebacker like Mayo in the mix with him.

– While I still don’t think we can write Ryan Wendell off right away, it’s good to see the Pats starting and sticking with an interior line featuring two rookie guards – Shaq Mason and Tre Jackson. Last year they had no continuity at any position except right tackle in the early part of the season, even Solder was getting rotated out in camp. At least the rookies are getting their feet wet and from the sounds of it, Stork looks even more impressive this year. Have to say I’m most curious to see Shaq in pass protection, that could determine if he’s ready to start. He should be a wrecking ball in the running game. He’s one to focus on this preseason.

– Here’s how I see the current offensive depth chart after the first four practices, based on various reports. Nothing is set in stone but for the most part this is how it seems like they’re starting off.

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Dobson has made some impressive catches but we’ve seen that before from him. The key will be to staying healthy and building on his good plays. Can he do enough to eat into LaFell’s snaps once he returns? I still have my doubts but a good start is a good start.

– While many of us could see Vollmer getting traded based on his age, salary, injury history and depth behind him, I’m not reading too much into Cannon getting more starter snaps early. Vollmer is coming off surgery and they’ll manage his return. Let’s not write Vollmer off completely, he’s one of the best right tackles in the game and could play left tackle if anything happens to Solder. I have my doubts Cannon or Fleming could slide to the left.

– Seems like James White and Travaris Cadet will be neck and neck all summer for the starting passing down back. Most important will be watching how well they pick up pass rushers when asked to block. White might be undersized but that didn’t stop Danny Woodhead. He still has the inside track as I see it.

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– Defensively things are starting to become a little clearer as well especially at cornerback where it seems like Butler and Brown have made the most plays the first few days. Logan Ryan will get plenty of snaps and Robert McClain has drawn some praise as well. Not much mention of Bradley Fletcher so far, but it’s all very fluid. If Brown excels on the outside it could shift Ryan into more of a slot competition with McClain.

– Jordan Richards has the only interception of camp and has drawn consistent praise for being in the right spots. Another strong safety Belichick was said to have reached on, Richards is showing that he just might be a player worthy of his draft status. Still a long way to go.

– Jeff Howe reported that Flowers was ahead of Grissom on the depth chart so it’s reflected above. The Pats have also been using packages with Nink/Chandler and Sheard. That will be fun to watch.

– Eric Martin is a random name that has popped up a bit as well, even moreso after he won an offseason award. The backup/special team linebacker roles are always the hardest to project but he should be in the mix if White doesn’t get healthy sooner than later. Who knows how Fleming/Freney/Morris plays out. They’ll see plenty of time this preseason, would love for one of them to show potential on defense – a fourth LB would be hugely helpful, there’s not much depth there as is.

PatsPosits: OTA Roundup

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There really has been no offseason this year. Between the off-the-field controversies and OTAs being spread out, the Pats have been in the new constantly since winning the Super Bowl. Some of that is good, some of it obviously is not.

The important thing is not to read too much into OTAs, like who’s playing where, who looks good, etc. This is a teaching phase. Guys are getting reps all over the place, sometimes they’re not even on the field. So I’m not pencilling anything in anywhere just yet.

With that in mind here are some things that I think are significant from the last few weeks of open access to OTAs.

– With Spikes getting cut, Mayo/Hightower and Fletcher all out, and Collins in and out of practice, the linebacking crew has some real issues right now. Getting healthy there, at least with Collins and Fletcher, is a big priority in the next seven weeks until camp opens.

– I was surprised by the release of Tim Wright. Really thought he could blossom with a full offseason in the playbook, but it appears he did not. Despite Chandler’s size, I do think he’s a little more of an “F” tight end and between him, Fred Davis and AJ Derby, the Pats had enough depth there to move on from Wright. I thought Wright’s lack of action in the post season was more due to the game-planning, but I guess it was more of an overall referendum.

– Everyone is so curious about how the running back situation will play out and I wish I had a crystal ball, but it’s going to be all about competition and injuries. For early down carries I think we’ll see a rotation between Blount and Gray with Gaffney being the wild card. Remember there’s no Blount in Week 1, so that could be a good chance to audition both Gaffney and Gray.

– As for the passing down back, James White’s size does concern me a bit, he’ll have to be Kevin Faulk-like with pass blocking and reliability to nail down the job. However Cadet has really good size and that would be an exciting new twist in the backfield. Mike Reiss thinks we shouldn’t dismiss Dion Lewis, but we’ll have to see how the journeyman looks in live action.

– The Brady-Gronk-Chandler trio have been seen working off by themselves plenty of times in OTAs, reminiscent of past private sessions with Brady-Gronk-Revis last year or Brady-Moss a while back. This new tight end duo has incredible size and should be quite the force in the red zone. Teams planning on focusing primarily on Gronk in the red zone are in for a surprise.

– The general sentiment out there seems to be that Brady’s appeal will convince the commissioner to reduce his suspension to two games, then it will be up to Brady whether he wants to take that or drag the fight out into possibly training camp. Let’s face it, Goodell won’t absolve Brady completely. It’s more likely (and certainly possible) he’ll uphold all four games.

So the question is, if Brady never implicitly said, nor implied he wanted the balls deflated to an illegal level, should he accept any punishment? I have a hard time believing he will if he truly never expected and was aware of anything nefarious going on with the balls before games.

Still, the time frame and attention this will continue to draw will go into August at least if Brady continues to fight the NFL on it and I think it’s a safe bet that if it goes to an independent arbitrator he’ll win. So I hope Brady ignores the distraction it may cause and fights down to the wire, because really it will be his lawyers doing the heavy lifting. All Brady and the Pats have to do is not answer the questions they’ll be asked every media session after every practice.