Pats Posits

There hasn’t been a more emotionally draining football game since the Super Bowl, and to find its regular season equivalent we might have to go all the way back to the 4th-and-2 2009 game. Wow. What a ball game.

Early on it looked just like the last three Giants games have looked. Eli and his bottom-of-the-depth-chart receivers making magical plays and moving the ball seemingly at will.

But this time it was Eli and the Giants who left just a little too much time for Tom Brady, and he made them pay the same way the Patriots had to pay the Giants the last three times.

So much to digest from this game, with Julian Edelman’s injury, one that will keep him out at least until the playoffs, if not longer, being at the forefront.

But for now here at the Posits on how the Pats finally beat their Giant mind block.

First, with the Broncos losing again the Pats are sitting in good position for a top two seed and the bye that comes with it. Honestly if this means we’ll have an almost-healthy Edelman for the playoff run it’s not the worst thing in the world. Better this than a Week 17 Welker ACL tear.

They’re paying Amendola plenty of money, he should be okay filling Edelman’s role for six weeks. He’s a much better option than rookie Edelman was filling in for Welker in 2009. I think we all generally trust him a lot more down than we did early in his Patriots career. He’s made a ton of clutch plays since mid-2014 and a big reason why the Pats not only won a Super Bowl, but are currently 9-0.

Big picture for the offense, they just need Vollmer and Cannon back and then we’ll see where we’re at. What this patchwork offensive line did against the Giants deserves a ton of credit. We still must wonder how healthy they can get, and then just how good that group is. We haven’t even seen Cannon at left tackle much at all. Obviously Vollmer’s return will settle things. Hopefully that’s not too bad of a concussion.

Now there’s another chance for Aaron Dobson
, who should find himself on the field more frequently. But I still think LaFell, Gronk and Amendola are a very experienced and tough trio. 

Big picture on the defense, the pass rush was too quiet against the Giants. But overall they didn’t have as bad of a game as some on my twitter feed thought. They didn’t allow a touchdown in the second half. Yes, the long drive at the end was dreadful, but in the end they bent but didn’t break enough for Brady to pull it out.

This is what they do. No one should be surprised.

But overall what a gutty road performance by the 2015 Patriots. We might’ve lost Edelman for a bit but we learned a lot about this team. Every year is unique but this is another edition that will fight down to the last man.

Now, the small stuff:

This is just the kind of game I’ve been talking about with Chandler Jones and he had the nice sack at the start, but a relatively quiet day when the Pats were often only rushing a few guys. Would’ve liked to have seen more out of him, NInkovich and Easley. 

Though Ninkovich did come through with the big sack that set up a punt near the end of the game. That was a game-saving play. 

Easley and Hightower were also quiet on the pass rush front, while Sheard gets a pass in his first game back.

The run defense was once again excellent, one of the most pleasant surprises of the first Post-Wilfork season. Credit to Branch and Brown, Siliga and Hicks.

Malcolm Butler was on the end of a tough play to start the game but he bounced back extremely well. This might’ve been the best full game of his career. Take away Odell Beckham’s 87-yard touchdown and he had just 3 more catches for 17 yards. And that’s with 12 targets! Butler had three passes defensed.

I understand the thought to try to get Blount going with this makeshift line we’re running out there, but I still think he’s the kind of back that needs someone in front of him to soften the defense up before downshifting to Blount.

I wanted to see more of White, but they seemed to put away the Lewis portion of the playbook as far as he was concerned. There were a couple with Brandon Bolden, but the Pats passing down back offense hasn’t been ignored it was in this game very often.

This was a big third down game, neither team did much on first or second down. The Pats finished 7-14, the Giants 7-15. That one third down stop was literally the difference in the game. The pass rush can and will be better, and once that happens they’ll be fine. 

Don’t think McCourty’s had his best season. There was the miscue on first touchdown, but there’s been a couple of those kind of plays from him this year. Not picking up a fumble earlier in the season and getting a “you’re a better player than that” from BB springs to mind as well.

For the second time this year I’ve thought that Matthew Slater
was done for the year only to see him return. Can’t imagine what his body is going through right now.

Rough penalty game with a lot of bad calls in key situations going the wrong way. Eli even Flacco’d us a bit.

Justin Coleman got picked on and eventually replaced by Melvin. I like Melvin’s size and that’s about it. Still think Coleman is the better player. As many catches as they gave up the tackling was pretty solid and there wasn’t much YAC.

The defense is different without Jamie Collins. Obviously. And Hightower has had a couple down weeks. Unfortunately the dropoff to Freeny and Mayo is huge. I don’t know how quickly Dane Fletcher can get up to speed, but they could use a guy like him.

Losing Dion Lewis
hurts man. This is one of the worst breakups I’ve gone through in some time. I’m trying to just not think or post about him, but wow did they miss his multiple first-down-outta-nothing plays against the Giants.

Amendola’s punt return what was really sparked the comeback, but Brady almost gave it away there a couple times. Really, they should’ve put them away much earlier than they did, but overcoming that is still pretty impressive. They know they can’t get away with that in big games against good teams.

I turned my TV off after I thought Landon Collins intercepted Brady on the final drive. Only one last look at twitter saved me from missing the real ending. Could you imagine?

What else is there to say about Tom Brady. This one felt good. It came at a price, but it was a warm feeling to finally give Eli a last second loss, even if it doesn’t mean anything as far as those Super Bowl losses are concerned.

Let’s get Vollmer and Cannon back this week!

The Patriots pretty easily handled the Redskins as expected on Sunday, but once again were dealt more problems in the injury department.

Still, the Pats rolled, the defense played well even without Jamie Collins, and they’re headed to another date with Eli sitting at 8-0.

But 2015 has quickly become a war of attrition since the Pats early bye week, when offensive linemen started dropping like Redskins receivers. We’re down to one healthy tackle and we’re only halfway to the playoffs.

Here are the somber Posits…

Where else to start but Dion Lewis
and Sebastian Vollmer
? 

We’ll all be holding our breath on both early this week, hoping that somehow Lewis only has an MCL sprain and Vollmer is at practice Wednesday. Lewis had an almost “too good to be true” feel to him and unfortunately I think the odds are against us seeing him again this year.

You have to feel for a guy who was finally just coming out of the woods on the injuries that hurt him early in his career. He was electric and putting him into an offense that won the Super Bowl last year was almost unfair.

Regardless of this season, hopefully Lewis can get back to the level he played at. He seems like a truly special playmaker. If there’s just a chance to get him for the playoffs it’d be a win at this point.

As for replacing him, I think James White is next in line despite Bolden’s appearance on Sunday. White isn’t as elusive as Lewis, but he’s shown some flash here and there in limited spots this season.

Some are already speculating Travaris Cadet could make a return and that makes a lot of sense. The Pats aren’t dead in the water without Lewis, but there will be a bit of dropoff that’s for sure.

– Yes, it’s the year of the Tackle Apocalypse with Sebastian Vollmer being the latest victim to go down with what is likely a concussion. But in comes Bryan Stork to save the day, playing tackle for the first time in his career and doing a pretty good job.

I don’t know how things can get much worse at the tackle spot. Praying the Cannon re-appears this week, Vollmer’s okay and then we’ll okay if we can just keep them healthy til the end. I’m definitely not convinced we can.

– Gotta love the balls of the onside kick early in the game. That’s the kind of “take control” performance you want against an inferior team at home and I thought it sent a strong message.

– We were all worried about losing the legend Vince Wilfork, but what a job Alan Branch and Malcom Brown are doing inside. Branch forced a fumble and blew up a couple runs by himself. Brown gets better each week and plays with excellent pad level and strength. Along with solid edge play from Ninkovich (who did lose the edge a couple times on the Redskins only drive) and Chandler Jones, the Pats run defense has been as good as it’s been since 2012, when they were the 6th best run defense by Football Outsider’s DVOA metric.

– I think I’ve finally figured LeGarrette Blount out. If it’s a tough front that likes to stop the run, he’s not very good. But against a run defense that’s middle of the pack or worse, or especially poor tacklers? He gonna eat.

– The Pats put Ryan on Garcon and Butler on Jackson. He was just coming back from injury, but Jackson was eliminated by Butler. Might be an area to examine in A22 Review, but Jackson had six targets, three catches, 15 yards with a long of nine yards. After getting torched in training camp last summer as a rookie, Butler showed some progress against the speedy deeeeeep threat.

– Predictable breakout game for LaFell as he looks to be back in sync with Brady. Nine targets, five catches for 102 yards for the physical receiver. It sucks to probably lose Lewis but it’s nice to have LaFell back to bring his outside presence.

– You the sign of a good pass defense? When they play action then check back down to the running back they didn’t hand off to. Seeing it more and more the last couple years and it’s a nice sign no one is open.

– The defense still really needs Sheard back. Chandler and Ninkovich are going to wear out playing every snap again. Initial reports were Sheard’s ankle was minor, but here we are a month later and he still hasn’t been seen on the field. Off it he looks fine, no limp, cast or otherwise. So the wait continues…

– Duron Harmon went down too but walked off and seemed okay after the game. Losing him would really limit what McCourty could be used for, so hopefully he just took one in the jewels or something. But after Sheard/Cannon’s “minor” injuries who knows.

– I can’t even get through an entire Posits and not mention those we sometimes take for granted like Edelman and Gronk, but both were clutch per usual. Getting to the playoffs with them healthy matters above all else. I’m not sure there’s a tougher receiver in the NFL than Julian Edelman. Fierce, quick, he’s a nightmare to cover and play against no matter what you want to label him.

– And then, there’s Tom Brady who finally threw his first shitty interception of the year. I’m glad that’s out of the way! 

– Always nice to see the Broncos lose, even if it was to the Colts. That’s a good tie breaker, the Pats could be a win in Denver away from a solid two-game lead for homefield advantage.

– Guess what? The Patriots haven’t beat Eli Manning since the 2007 16-0 game! This includes SB42, 2011′s regular season matchup, and SB46, all of which featured Eli making a late drive to pull out the win. I’d love to put a couple demons to rest this Sunday!

Despite getting thrown off my usual schedule by the Patriots’ Thursday night game, I don’t mind a full Sunday of the Red Zone Channel and no stress. Lots of great games yesterday, capped off by the Broncos knocking the Packers off in a game that I think most everyone believed would result in Denver getting smacked.

So now the Pats’ game in Denver certainly looks a bit more intriguing, but I think it’s worth reminding everyone out there thinking about 16-0 and making reservations in San Fran for early February that the season is not even halfway over yet. So many things can still change. Even I’m guilty of imagining what might be possible if the Pats can avoid the injury bug for the next two months. They got off to a great start and then got whacked with the Brown/Solder/Cannon/Sheard hits in weeks 5 and 6.

As I’m sure you’ve heard the trade deadline is tomorrow. I would never rule anything out but I just can’t play the trade speculation game. Everyone has a certain player that makes sense, but when it comes down to it I think the Patriots are a Super Bowl contender as currently constituted. Again, it’s just a matter of staying healthy. But making a trade for a starting corner or tackle seems like a longshot to me at this point.

One thing I noticed this morning was that Brandon Browner is once again leading the league in penalties and I don’t think this is something we can dismiss when considering the Pats letting him walk.

Truth be told, I was more annoyed at letting Browner walk than Revis at the time last spring, because that sparked everyone to say the Pats were going back to a more zone based defense. That was unthinkable to me because quarterbacks are just too good against zone defense now to make that your bread and butter. I was ecstatic when the Pats continued to stick primarily with man defense even if the personnel didn’t totally scream man-to-man. And really I think it’s paid off, in good part because the front seven has been fresher and better for 60 minutes overall than they have been in a long time.

Lot of love out there for Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty and Duron Harmon this week, with Harmon and Chung both begin chosen as PFF’s top safeties this week. Belichick mentioned that in his first stint with the Pats, they used Chung more in Cover-2, whereas now he’s basically playing linebacker 90% of the time. His coverage of tight ends has certainly improved over the last two years, and he certainly had his struggles facing more wide receivers from 2009-2012.

The guy I’m most curious about though is Jordan Richards, who continues to impress me each week as his role continues to grow a bit each time he takes the field. Richards will replace Chung at some point, and my early impression is that his ceiling will be even higher.

Despite Chris Ivory’s injury, the Pats’ run defense has been as good as we’ve seen it the last two weeks against two very tough running teams. The inside defensive tackle rotation is really working well and I wonder if not having Wilfork to rely on has helped the front deliver a more consistent performance.

What I’d like to see most is for the defense to show their full potential against the Broncos. How would the defense look once Sheard and Easley hit their stride alongside Collins, Hightower, Chandler and Nikovich? That’s when things might get scary good and hopefully that’s what we’re building to in Jan/Feb.

Stop me if I get annoying but I can’t get enough of Dion Lewis. The offense was already a bunch of impossible choices when it was mainly Gronk and Edelman leading the way while LaFell and Amendola filled in with timely clutch catches. Now the third dynamic that Lewis brings is what is truly making this new version of the offense unique and potentially as unstoppable as we’ve ever seen. Lewis doesn’t just make something out of nothing, he makes amazing out of nothing. And when there is something there he has yet to fall short. I’m not sure there’s a defense out there that can match up with Gronk/Edelman/Lewis.

After this lackluster Redskins game there are four interesting games in a row – @NYG, BUF, @DEN and PHI. These will be the best, and likely only remaining tests on the schedule, unless the Jets find a way to bounce back after losing to the suddenly dangerous Raiders.

It’s hard not to just think about the playoffs this year with the light schedule and overall dominance so far, but I still believe there will be more adversity to define this team. I just hope it’s not a critical injury because it still looks like that might be the only thing that can stop the Patriots from getting back to the Super Bowl.

The New England Patriots are 5-0 coming off another win over the Indianapolis Colts, but I’m sure if I were to tune into the Boston media this morning there’d be much complaining that the Pats didn’t score 100 points like everyone thought they would because REVENGE!

I never really bought into this being an easy Pats blow out because the Colts needed this game and were at home and their talent level is a lot higher than they’ve been playing. Seemed to me like a perfect time for the Colts to turn in their first solid performance against the Pats during the Andrew Luck era and guess what? They did.

The Colts did pretty much everything you need to do to beat the Patriots, at least in the first quarter. They didn’t turn the ball over. They had long sustained drives. They tried some trick plays. But it still was not enough. The Patriots were still just a little more prepared and made just a few more plays that ended up being the difference.

The win comes as more injuries continue to hit New England hard. It’s crazy to think just a couple weeks ago the Pats had near-perfect health and everyone was considering 16-0. Now I think we can put that talk on the backburner, even if it is still technically possible. 

Maybe yesterday’s win wasn’t as satisfying as we hoped it might, but a win is a win, and the Colts embarrassing themselves with that fake punt will certainly provide enough comical attention at their expense that a 50-points blowout would’ve.

What matters now are the two divisional games in the next 10 days, where really the season will be cemented or put into some uncertainty. The Jets will provide plenty of challenges, but first here are my Posits from the win over the Colts.

Sometimes I feel like the sign of a good opposing gameplan is when Danny Amendola has a bunch of catches like he did yesterday. Amendola is the kind of guy who doesn’t get much credit but just keeps coming through when his number is called. He’s probably gone next season and I think losing him will be harder to overcome than many realize at this point. 

Can’t tell for sure until I take a look at the All-22 but it seems like in the first half there was a lot of mixing coverage going on, and it seemed to skew a little more heavily toward zone. Might’ve been why they gave up a couple long drives. But in the second they seemed to switch to more man and that made a lot of difference. Man defense continues to be a necessity and this week against the Jets will really put that to the test.

But great adjustments all around at halftime for the defense. They forced 4 punts and 2 turnover-on-downs in the second half before the 8-play, 85-yard touchdown drive that made things interesting at the end. Only four drives the entire game lasted longer than 6 plays. All things considered, that’s impressive.

Gostkowski is so reliable – he’s now hit  21 straight field goals. With the new kicking rules throwing a lot of kickers in the league off, it’s nice to know we have one who is the model of consistency.

Dion Lewis fell back to earth a little bit, at least on the stat sheet. Probably should’ve expected that at some point. I’m curious to look what kind of attention the Colts game him, but there was not much space out there for him to work his magic.

Jeff Howe mentioned this morning that Edelman’s finger that NBC kept harping on, has been a thing for a while now. But it was a convenient talking point after Edelman had a couple drops and the bobble that led to an interception. Edelman remains one of those bulletproof guys though. Yeah, he’s had some strange brainfart moments this season, but he still keeps coming through with tough catches in big spots – including that huge 4th down run with the game still in question.

Really thought the defense missed Hightower because he and Collins work so well together. When the Colts saw the Pats in man coverage and Collins on the RB, they’d run him out to the boundary, taking Collins out of the box and minimizing his effect, especially taking away his threat of blitzing. They can’t do that when Hightower is in there because they’re both so good attacking downhill.

The developments on Mayo continue to show that he’s not ready for a major role and I wonder why he didn’t start the year on PUP. Might be one of those rare instances it’s mostly a leadership thing? Because he doesn’t seem to be progressing or making any plays. Freeny is a stopgap at best, making me think Dane Fletcher could be a valuable addition if Hightower has to miss extended time.

Vollmer flipping to LT and Fleming coming in at RT when Cannon went down shows why it’s so important to have experienced depth at the tackle spots.

Speaking of injuries, Ian Rapoport reports neither Cannon nor Sheard’s dings are serious. That’s critically good news, especially for Sheard who also seemed to have a quiet game before going out.

However the early signs are not good for Matthew Slater who had to be helped off. That would be a big blow to the special teams and in the leadership department.

Speaking of special teams, that Colts fake punt thing was obviously a highlight. But it just shows how well-prepared New England was. The fact that the Patriots didn’t panic, didn’t call a timeout, just adjusted and waiting for the Colts to do something, that’s what played a big part in forcing them to snap the ball. Can’t believe they snapped it.

Two onsides kicks and the Pats recovered both. These kind of plays don’t get headlines but if they had gone the other way so could’ve the game.

Why is it that Scott Chandler can’t see to make the plays for us that he always seemed to make against us. He had his moments last night, good and bad, but I’m still waiting for him to really round into the potent threat we all thought he could be in the red zone when paired with Gronk.

The thing about the Patriots’ offense is that it’s just a matter of time. You get that inevitable feeling that even when they have to punt, they’ll be right back the next drive with a strong effort. The only problem was they went to sleep in the second half when they should’ve put one more scoring drive together to ice things. That’s a bit concerning and surprising considering I didn’t think they’d hesitate to step on the Colts’ throat at the end.

Logan Ryan deserves some credit now that he’s everyone’s favorite cornerback to complain about. In the grand history of Belichick’s Patriots corners Ryan is one of the better ones and seems to be really be taking some positive strides now that he’s been elevated on the depth chart. He’s going to get all he can handle this weekend against the Jets.

Dominique Easley had maybe his best pass rushing game of his career in this one. PFF had him for eight pressures in 21 pass rush snaps. Easley’s emergence had a big part to do with the second half turnaround for the defense and it shows why they needed a player like him so badly.

I do think it’s clear that the offense needs LaFell. Keshawn Martin isn’t a threat and when teams key on Edelman and Gronk, they need more than just Amendola to counter. All signs are pointing toward LaFell hopping right into things (no pun intended about his foot injury), and his downfield blocking and physical presence will instantly give the Pats a new dimension.

Chandler Jones is another guy who really stepped up in second half, getting consistent pressure. That was huge without Sheard to spell him and Nink. It was strange to see the ‘13/’14 throwback of Chandler/Nink playing near every snap. 

Finally Jamie Collins’ blocked PAT was just the latest freak play we’ve seen him make and let’s remember how big that could’ve ended up being if the Colts had gotten the onsides kick back. Instead of going for a touchdown to win, they would’ve needed to go for two to win after Collins’ big play.