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Pats Posits

Pats Posits: Bring on the Chiefs!

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Still trying to wrap my head around the Bengals meltdown last night. Truth be told my seven-year-old is just starting to get into football and he’s sparked to the Bengals because, well, he likes tigers. I let him stay up last night to watch the end of the game and it was fun to see him get into it, until I had to explain to him what “implosion” means. Welcome to the pain of rooting for a football team, son, and no, you can’t root for the Bengals any more.

As I’ve said many times before the best wins are the ones you’ve accepted you’re probably going to lose, but as last night proved the worst losses are ones where you think you’re going to win. Obviously that kind of meltdown is nothing we’ll ever see in New England, and the result is now the Pats get the Chiefs.

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Other than the Giants game this year, there weren’t many historical context games for the Patriots. No Brady-Peyton game. The division was never really in question. The Colts weren’t good. The season-opener didn’t feel historical, more workman like. Who cares about the Titans and Jaguars and Redskins, etc? Meh. It was a “just get through it” kind of a season.

But now here come the Chiefs, the team who kicked our ass last year and thus dubbed the game that was the major turning point in the 2014 Pats’ season. Everyone wrote Brady and the Pats’ dynasty obituary after that one, only to see them rise from the ashes to get Super Bowl number four.

So yes, the Pats owe this team one, and it’s a team that has given them problems over the years outside of a primetime beatdown in Foxboro in 2011, 34-3. So that makes things a lot more intriguing for one of the only times this season.

Outside of that we have an ugly loss at Arrowhead in 2005, the tragic season opener in 2008 that needs no elaboration, and last year’s pummeling. So yes, the Chiefs have been an underrated thorn in Brady and Belichick’s side and this game will certainly have some historical context – either the Pats will “avenge” their loss last year, or Andy Reid/Alex Smith will cement their spot as being underrated Patriots kryptonite.

If Jeremy Maclin is out it’s a huge blow to the Chiefs and allows the Patriots to focus fully on Travis Kelce, the running game, and Alex Smith’s array of bootlegs and keepers. The Chiefs’ offensive philosophy matches up well with the Patriots’ defense when they play conservatively and that’s why they could still cause problems even without Maclin.

Simply put, if the Pats defense are in full Bend-Don’t-Break mode (and not causing disruption up front or getting turnovers) the Chiefs will move the ball with their quick passes and balance. So on defense, aggression will be key. By manning up their less-than-scary outside threats with our cornerbacks, it should allow our front seven to get after it.

The hard part is going to be for the Patriots’ offensive line dealing with the Chiefs front. The struggles there this season are well-documented and they were a mess the last two games, and there isn’t a better edge combo that Houston and Hali.

Rookie corner Marcus Peters could be on Julia Edelman, a tough assignment for the receiver playing his first game in two months. Getting open quick will be a huge key across the board for the Pats’ offense. That hasn’t been happening in recent weeks and that’s why the Pats’ offense has looked like shit.

The Chiefs will make the Patriots earn this win, and they’ll be every bit the challenge the Ravens were in the divisional round. The Chiefs will come in confident and give the Pats their best shot. What else would you expect from a team that hasn’t lost since mid-October?

I was guilty of hoping the Bengals pulled out last night’s game to give the Pats the easiest road, but the easiest road isn’t always the most entertaining or meaningful. Beating the Chiefs would certainly be more meaningful than putting Cinci out of their misery would’ve been. More frustrating is that the Broncos get a Steelers team with an injured Big Ben and maybe no Antonio Brown, but with Peyton Manning, you never know.

In a season with plenty of unexciting matchups, 2015 suddenly got extremely interesting. Two other potential AFC Championship matchups would loom – at Denver or vs. Pittsburgh and both would bring plenty of historical context and meaning. But getting through Kansas City won’t be the playoff walk in the park recent post season matchups like Indy, Houston and even Denver circa 2011 were.

Layers and history are what make games truly more fun even if this might be the scariest first round opponent the Pats could’ve gotten. It will be a fun week of hype and we’ll finally see who the 2015 Patriots are against a team that can challenge all their weaknesses.

Pats Posits: Just Because Edition

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Per my earlier post of the SB49 Sound FX episode, it’s starting to feel like the playoffs are coming and I’m getting fired up. Probably played “For Those About to Rock” and “Sunday Bloody Sunday” a little too loud on my way into work this morning, and we’re still nine days away from the 2015 Patriots season actually starting.

One of the things getting me fired up was listening to Felger and Mazz for Bedard’s appearance this week. This is the only time I’ll listen to Felger and Mazz for reasons like Mazz pumping the brakes on Malcolm Butler all season long only to name him his number one star for the season on this episode. But what really got me fired up was Felger’s pressing Bedard to choose whether the 2015 Patriots underacheived or just didn’t have as good of depth as the he’s been led to believe. Felger kept hitting “they lost four of their last six” over and over and even Bedard was getting frustrated.

Had I not been listening to it after the fact I might’ve been tempted to call in. In Felger’s black and white sports world it has to be one or the other, but what he leaves out is that this was not the same Patriots team for the last six weeks of the season. Every single one of those games they were missing someone new. Gronk, Hightower, Vollmer, Easley, Blount, McCourty, Chung, the list is long and distinguished. 

How can you just lump those games all together when each one had significant new challenges?

Here’s the bottom line – the Patriots lost more man games that any other team in the NFL and still finished 12-4. Yes, they had 14-point leads in two of those losses and had some bonehead play calls and strategy, but name me another team that would ever call a 12-4 season “underachieving”. 

Or name me another team that would be anywhere close to competitive with their third-string right tackle starting at left tackle. Yeah, let’s just put Brady back to pass 50 times with Cameron Fleming protecting his blind side. What could go wrong?

Felger and Mazz know what their doing so I don’t often take the cheese, but this is one time his dismissiveness really got me fired up. So yeah, whatever. You do you, guys.

Another bit of news this morning that excited me was the announcement that Peyton Manning will be the Broncos starter for the playoffs. I love it. And yet there are plenty of Broncos fans thinking this is the year Manning will take them to the promised land. 

Nevermind his playoff history, nevermind how bad he looked at the start of the season when he should’ve been healthy, nevermind he’s still not fully healthy, nevermind the weather in Denver could severely limit his already limited game, nevermind he doesn’t really fit Gary Kubiak’s offense, nevermind his lack of arm strength basically makes Emmanuel Sanders nothing but a deep decoy, nevermind all of it. This is the year Peyton will get it done!

Gameplanning for Peyton is simple for the Patriots and actually helps their defense. They can stack the box against the run and honestly their running game scares me more than anything. You take away the short throws and force Manning to beat you on deep passes. I don’t know if he can do that anymore in perfect conditions, much less if there’s some kind of bad weather on game day.

I hated losing homefield at the time, but now the Broncos are almost assured to play the Steelers or Chiefs, two teams that will give them major problems. I’ll be shocked if we don’t see Brock Osweiler at some point, whether the Broncos are in a hole or it’s just a terrible weather day.

Pats Posits: Who Are the 2015 Patriots?

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It’s hard to believe we’re about to close the books on another regular season but the strangest part is that I don’t really know who the 2015 Patriots are. Are they the dominant Dion Lewis-at-RB team from the first half of the season? Are they the “Sick Jamie Collins” defense they played a month with? 

Really, the defining characteristic of the 2015 Pats seems to be getting by with what they had on any given Sunday. Players were in and out all season, still they lost just three games, two of which came in overtime, while also having 14-point leads in two of the three as well.

No, the 2015 will truly be defined by how well these injury-riddled Pats can come back together and perform under the pressure of the playoffs. How healthy will Edelman, Hightower, McCourty, Chung, Vollmer (and even Chandler Jones) be in two weeks? Can they step in and play at the highest level necessary to win in the playoffs? Or will they be just enough out of sync to not be able to make the one or two critical plays often needed to win a playoff game?

So in a lot of ways the 2015 season has felt like one long preseason. There are certainly things we know – that this defense is the best they’ve had since 2007, and in my view is the best and most promising for the long term since 2003. Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan and Malcom Brown have emerged as legitimate building blocks, while free agent Jabaal Sheard has taken the pass rush to the next level.

But on offense things are far more murky because of unrelenting injuries. Can Steven Jackson convert a critical third-and-two? Can Edelman step in and make an incredible catch on third down while taking a big hit? Or will he not quite be up to game speed and make a critical drop? What about Amendola in that situation? Can Vollmer take on the kind of dangerous pass rushers with his bum ankle? Will Hightower and Jones be shadows of themselves, or will three weeks off get them back to near-100%?

Most of Pats Nation seems to count on everyone coming back, stepping in at 100% and making all the key plays like they did in last year’s playoff run. I am cautiously optimistic, but the 2015 Pats’ fate will depend entirely on how fast the offense can “re-click” and we just don’t know for sure how close to 100% many of the vital players are.

Usually you know who your team is by this point. You know where the expectations lie for them. This year I’m not so sure, and given how the playoff field is lining up, I don’t see a Colts-esque slam dunk anywhere for this Patriots team.

Obviously the playoffs will define the 2015 Patriots and each game will come down to a small handful of critical plays the Pats will either make or not, but right now we still just don’t know the true impact of all these non-season-ending injuries that have thus far been the only consistent trait of the 2015 Pats next to Tom Brady and Malcolm Butler starting.

Pats Posits: A loss to the Jets is still a loss to the Jets (even when you’re playing your JV offense)

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The Patriots made a noble comeback attempt against the Jets after being down 17-3, only to fall short in overtime, now we’re on to Miami to close the season off. It’s hard to feel that bad about a relatively meaningless loss, but it might’ve been easier to swallow if they hadn’t made a pretty ballsy comeback. 

The playoffs are fast approaching and the Pats still can’t make it through a game without someone getting carted off. Also – Super Bowl 50 is just around to corner so act now if you plan to bet on Super Bowl 2016 online and get in the game.

Belichick’s decision to play defense first in overtime was a strong choice, but given how the offense had been playing, it’s was the better choice if you think it will be a field possession game in overtime. 

Belichick isn’t afraid to make those kinds of calls, nor does he care what anyone thinks after the fact. That’s why you have to love him and right or wrong, he did what he thought was best, just like he did when he forced Seattle’s hand in the closing minute of Super Bowl 49 by not calling a timeout. 

Despite the Pats still being in the same position they were in before the game – needing one win to clinch the top seed in the AFC – there’s still plenty to talk about. 

Here are the Posits…

– Vollmer Injury – We have to start with then biggest “big picture” detail of this game and that’s the ankle injury to Sebastian Vollmer. There was hope Sunday night that it was just an ankle sprain, but any time a guy gets carted off you have to think the worst. He’ll have an MRI Monday and we’ll know what the deal is by Wednesday’s injury report at the latest.

Without Vollmer it only exacerbates the biggest weakness on this Patriots offense right now and that’s protection. Of course it all looks easier when guys like Amendola and Edelman are getting open right off the snap. Brady doesn’t need much time then, but now, without any real weapons outside Gronk, anytime the first read isn’t there, things get dicey with the protection.

– I’m not sure what we can expect from this line and what their ceiling really is. Outside of Solder and Stork, I’m not completely sold on any of the rest of them being long term solutions past this season. Yes, I’d love to think Mason and Jackson will take big strides, but can we really say either of them is as good as Stork was last year?

– When the Pats lose in the playoffs it’s because of two big things – pressure getting to Brady (especially up the middle) and the defense not making the last play. There were examples in this game of both and that’s a little scary.

– Steven Jackson looked good, getting just seven carries but still has a bit of a burst out of the backfield that even Blount lacked. As much as I’d love to say he’ll be the lead back in the playoffs, I think there’s a good chance he just has spot duty unless he really starts to go off. But he could definitely be the third-and-short/goalline hammer and I’m excited for that.

– Still, I’d take just about anything over the Brandon Bolden offense right now. I feel like it’s a personal front to me, the biggest Bolden-at-RB hater there is. The Pats had a 2.9 yards-per-carry average for the game. And while Bolden has been far more slippery than he’s been in the past, he’s still the worst starting running back the Pats have had since 2001. And don’t you dare say you’d rather have him over Laurence Maroney.

– The small silver lining of this all has been Keshawn Martin
, who I think has improved every week and is doing an okay Julian Edelman Z WR impression. Not sure it’s been enough to make Danny Amendola and his contract expendable, but I hope Martin sticks around.

– The Chung/McCourty Dropoff might’ve been the deciding factor in the Jets game, and it was made even worse when Jordan Richards went down and Tavon Wilson came on in overtime and was promptly targeted for a big gain. Obviously they’re a different defense in all aspects with their two veteran captains in there. That’s obviously the most significant difference with this game that makes it an outlier.

As Matt Chatham pointed out on Twitter during the game, so much of the Jets offense specifically targeted the Pats’ inexperience in the secondary, using bunch formations and motion to force communication issues for the Pats. This is a similar tactic to that which Eric Mangini used with the Browns in 2010 to challenge New England’s defense.

– Why is Hightower playing? The guy is super tough. I get it. But do we really need to risk him like this? He’s clearly not 100 percent and I pray he sits against Miami. Rest the beast!

– Got plenty of “calm downs” for tweeting that I thought the Jets were the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFC playoffs, but I believe it. The Steelers didn’t quite live up to “the team that no one wants to play” standards against the Ravens and I know everyone is still gunshy on the Chiefs after last year, but in Foxboro they’d be a different team. Even the Broncos would be a little spooked to play in Foxboro, not to mention the Bengals. But the Jets wouldn’t and in case you haven’t noticed, pretty much every Patriots-Jets game goes down to the wire, if not overtime. 

Also remember the Patriots had Edelman, Amendola, and Easley along with everyone else when it took a dropped Brandon Marshall touchdown to eek out a win at home against the Jets in October. Round Three would be an absolute dog fight and we all should know it.

– I was actually fine with the end-of-the-first-half concession. That’s been a dangerous spot for the Pats this year and the Jets offense was coming off an impressive scoring drive. It was conservative, but giving the ball back to the Jets there might’ve put the game away. Let’s remember they picked up ONE third down conversion the entire game. Same thing goes for kicking off.

– However, they were also 3-3 on 4th down conversions, a testament to the fight that this team continues to possess even when they probably should’ve easily lost by double digits. That’s why no matter who is in or out of the lineup, and at what percentage health, the Pats will be a tough out for anyone in the playoffs.

– The Sheard Strip Sack/Collins Fumble TD was the second week in a row the defense put six on the board. Remember in 2010 when they all seemed like interceptions? Well now it’s the front seven that is producing the game-changing plays. It’s a great sign for a defense that came up just a couple plays short in this one.

– Chandler Jones is one of the most interesting case studies in Belichick history. Jone will enter the fifth and final year of his deal in 2016 and he’s central to the question of how the Pats will handle him, Collins and Hightower. Against the Jets, Jones had just one tackle and one QB hit. Yes, he’s going to the Pro Bowl and has 12.5 sacks, but none of them have come in the Pats’ three losses. I think this playoff run will define Jones and the future with the Patriots. If he is a force for three games, he will write his own ticket. If he disappears in a disappointing playoff loss? Hightower, Collins and Sheard will become the priorities.

– One thing I hated about letting Brandon Browner go was the size he brought to the cornerback position. The Jets were my prime example of the kind of games you’d want to have a guy like him, despite his flaws. Give Logan Ryan credit, he hung in there and some of those plays were just an impossible mismatch. Butler seemed to do a much better job this time around on Decker, but without McCourty, Ryan was hung out to dry.

– This will get lost in the shuffle, but Ryan Allen’s 4th Q punt to pin the Jets on their 6, which was followed by a three-and-out by the Jets and the Pats game-tying touchdown drive. Special Teams had somewhat of a bounceback game and that’s good to see in a competitive game.

Now it all comes down to finishing off the dead Dolphins in Miami for the top playoff seed. The great question of 2015 remains – can the Patriots get healthy and click fast enough to win three playoff games?

Pats Posits: One more win until homefield

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It’s another victory Monday after the Pats dispatched the Titans 33-16, moving to 12-2 and needing just one more win to seal up the top seed in the AFC thanks to the Steelers knocking off the Broncos.

All that really matters now for the 2015 Patriots is getting healthy. We’re going to take the Jets’ best shot and probably have to do it with far less than what we’ll go into the playoffs with. 

The injury headlines were Dont’a Hightower and Danny Amendola tweaking previous injuries and Patrick Chung leaving the game with a hip injury. Hightower returned to the sideline but didn’t re-enter the game. That’s a ray of hope.

All three players are likely done for the regular season. Hightower and Chung are somewhat manageable, but not having Amendola against the Jets will make things tough.

This 2015 season has seemed like an extended preseason, with a constant state of injuries and injury management. Credit to the Patriots though, they’ve had to put second-most players on injured reserve, yet here they sit again atop the AFC.

It’s become to easy to take it for granted.

Here are the Posits…

– James White’s Emergence Continues: The biggest development of recent weeks is James White starting to look more and more comfortable making electric plays that had been missing since Dion Lewis went down. White’s best play, a 70-yard run that called back on a bad call, didn’t even make the stat sheet. He did have seven catches on eight targets for 71 yards and a touchdown. That’s reliability and he’s going to be a big factor in the playoffs.

– Turnovers on Defense! One of the best things to see against the Titans was that the defense got three turnovers, their first multi- turnover game since the Redskins and just the second time they’ve gotten three all year. This is one of the top three defenses Belichick has had but strangely they’re doing it with a pretty low turnover rate. That speaks to how good the pressure and coverage has been, but if they start getting a bit more of a nose for the ball, look out.

– Logan Ryan vs. Green-Beckham: Ryan had some struggles with Green-Beckham, which is not entirely surprising given the size disparity. But it’s something to watch once again with Decker and Marshall this weekend. Still, I love what the secondary is doing and it was nice to see Butler get a pick finally.

– Defensive Front: Hoping to take a look at how the defensive front shaped up in terms of pressure packages this week. It was great to finally see them at almost full power, especially at the linebacker spot. They are a veteran crew and I can’t wait to see what they bring in the playoffs.

– Third and Short, Keeping Chains Moving: The general consensus is that the Pats will be fine no matter who they roll out there at running back and while I generally think that is true, I also think winning playoff games is built on winning critical situations – two minute offense and two minute defense being the most obvious, but the other areas are getting stops or converting on third and shorts. Right now I don’t have a ton of confidence this offense can pick up a third-and-two when they need it most.

– Hightower and Amendola Re-Injuries, Chung (hip) injury: It was a good sign that Hightower came back out of the locker room, I’d still shut him down until the playoffs though. It was clear the moment Amendola tweaked his knee on the punt return, he suddenly just lost all power. Again, I think he’s done till the playoffs too. Then there’s Chung which scares me because he’s become such a critical part of the defense. Yes, they have some depth for his role with Wilson and Richards, but not having him in the playoffs would be a big blow. We wait for word on him.

– Nice to see Chandler Jones get back on the sack stat sheet, but I’m still very curious to see which version of him shows up in the playoffs. It will tell us so much about his future with the team and what kind of contract he might get on the open market after next season (if he makes it that far).

– Belichick 2013 Crew Hoodie: I was perplexed when Belichick showed up wearing a 2013 Blue “Hoodie” without the hood in this one. At first I thought he cut the hood off because he’s never worn a crewneck 2013 sweatshirt, but upon further inspection it was in fact a crewneck. So yeah, he just sat on that for a couple seasons without ever wearing it. Do I overthink this stuff? Yup.

– Grissom Time at RDE: Nice to see Grissom get a little time at defensive end, he was mostly an interior sub rusher early in the season. Him and Trey Flowers will be ones to watch next summer, their development will have big implications on the futures of Chandler Jones and somewhat Jabaal Sheard (as much as I hope they lock up Sheard long term).

– Keshawn Martin continues to develop, making sneaky solid plays, finishing the game with three catches for 26 yards. If Amendola is out again, Martin once again steps into a huge role against as good of a defense as we’ll see from here on out in the Jets.

– Brandon LaFell restored some of my confidence in him with four catches for 88 yards including a 31 yarder. The offense needs his 2014 reliability so much going forward,

This should be a fun game with a lot of hype this week. The Jets are a playoff team and possibly one the Patriots will have to face again. They really need this game too, as only two of the Jets, Steelers, Chiefs trio will make the playoffs.

But the Patriots might be dressing a preseason team, at least at the offensive skill positions outside of Gronk. And if Chung/McCourty/Hightower are out too the Pats could very well be headed for loss number three. 

The good news is a win in Miami in Week 17 looks doable and that would still lock up the top seed.

Pats Posits: Defense Dominates in Houston

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We’re going to the playoffs! After a two-game slide the Pats got back on track against the Texans, led by a suffocating defense that made plays with the pass rush and in coverage.

Houston converted just three of 14 third downs and had a total of 189 yards, 126 of which came on three plays. It was as good as this defense has played all season.

On offense, they made the plays they had to, but against a good defense they still looked out of sync at times. The biggest difference was having Gronk back. We all know he’s a game changer and that was once again proven against the Texans.

Now it’s back to home for a (hopefully) easy one against the Titans. Here are the Posits from the game:

– It’s time to give Logan Ryan
 his due. A lot of us thought Butler would draw Hopkins in coverage, but it was Ryan and aside from one big catch, Ryan erased Hopkins. Ryan was so inconsistent last season and into the preseason this year, but he’s gotten better each week and has developed a calm savvy to his game.

– Malcolm Butler has been just as good. He and Ryan aren’t getting a ton of interceptions but they’re competitive on every ball thrown in their direction. Now we see Leonard Johnson step right into the slot and do a terrific job, breaking up two passes. Johnson is thicker than Coleman and clearly more experienced. If he can keep it up he might be an important addition for the stretch run.

– No one is harder on Brandon Bolden
 than me, but with Blount going down with a hip injury, it was up to Bolden to be the early down back. This was the best game I’ve seen Bolden play as a running back (16 carries, 51 yards). He’s a fantastic special teams player but has lacked the ability to break tackles and make plays. Against the Texans he ran hard. Hopefully Blount isn’t out long, but credit to Bolden for stepping up and playing well.

– Not sure when Freeny got hurt, but Mayo was playing and had his best game of the season. Really looked like he was getting some of his “pop” back. He’s one to focus on in film review this week.

– Just as Keshawn Martin
 was starting to click with Brady he muffs a punt and opens the door to a potential Texans comeback (that failed when the defense got a fourth-down stop. Martin needs to shrug this one off, he’s taken real strides in the offense and looked a lot more comfortable this week. The better he fills the Edelman role the more they can hold back on Amendola (by keeping him as the “slot” receiver), and who knows, with Amendola’s contract Martin could end up replacing him.

– Jabaal Sheard has been a beast coming back off his ankle injury that kept him sidelined far longer than we expected. The combination of him, Ninkovich and Jones finally give us a deep rotation of impressive passive rushers who can all set the edge as well. 

– It seems like Easley dodged a bullett after going down grabbing his knee. He was riding the bike on the sideline and was seen laughing on the broadcast.

– The big injuries to monitor are LeGarrette Blount (hip) and Devin McCourty (ankle). Both looked fairly innocuous, but neither returned from the locker room. The at least have depth at safety to manage without McCourty, but going down to just Bolden and White would hurt.

– Injuries – Blount (hip), McCourty (ankle), Freeny (hand), Easley (knee)

– Nice to see the offense go 3-for-3 in the red zone but six punts and three three-and-outs made things look sluggish. They look nothing like the score-at-will team of September, but I still don’t think we’ve seen this offense’s capabilities post-Lewis. Hopefully we catch a glimpse of it against a floundering Titans team this weekend.

– All things considered I thought the offensive line was better than they’ve been, and that’s a good sign with two rookie guards playing the whole game. We knew they’d employ Michael Williams to help on Watt and they did a good job minimizing Watt’s impact.

Things have shifted quickly in the AFC with the Andy Dalton injury. Now it looks like Pittsburgh might be the biggest threat to the Pats’ AFC title hopes. At the least they’re the closest thing out there to healthy.

Broncos at Steelers will be big this weekend. With three games to go the Steelers are two behind the Bengals. The Bengals have a two-game western swing, first at San Fran then at Denver. The door is still very open on the Steelers getting the second seed.

The Pats game against the Jets in two weeks is shaping up to be a big one, but first the Titans!