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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 16 at New York Jets

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The Patriots need just one win in their final two games to secure the top seed in the AFC so against a Jets team that currently sits outside the playoffs and badly needs a win and help to get in, you might wonder what Bill Belichick’s mindset is – rest the walking wounded, concede a possible loss and focus on sealing up homefield in Miami against a Dolphins team with nothing to play for?

Or play to win regardless of injuries and playoff seeds? If you’ve been following Bill Belichick long enough, it’s a pretty good guess he’ll play to win, but with Devin McCourty and Danny Amendola expected to sit the Pats will be less than full strength once again in 2015. Really, it’s the season’s defining characteristic.

One interesting development is that we will get a look at Steven Jackson this week, possibly the latest and most recognizable in-season name addition Belichick has ever made. If Jackson has five games of any amount of beast mode left in him (after an extended period off), the Pats will have an entire new dimension in the playoffs.

Here’s the gameplan for the Jets, where all that really matters is getting through it healthy. If they have to seal up the conference in Miami so be it.

Offensive Gameplan

Tom Brady led the Pats in carries with four the first time these teams met in October and that will tell you all you need to know about how they viewed the Jets defense – that they had to throw it 54 times.

Now, the Pats will have just Keshawn Martin and Brandon LaFell (and maybe Chris Harper) dressed as receivers in this one. So replicating last game’s attack would be difficult.

Gronk was largely shut down last game by Calvin Pryor, until Pryor went down with an injury. Gronk finished with 11 catches for 108 yards and a touchdown. This week Pryor is back, and without Edelman or Amendola to worry about, there’s a good chance Revis could see Gronk at times as well.

One big element from the first matchup was Brandon LaFell’s first game of the season where he dropped multiple passes. LaFell has had an up and down season, but he’ll need to catch everything thrown his direction in this one.

The conservative approach for this game would be to give Steven Jackson, Brandon Bolden and James White plenty of action. They don’t have the personnel to go light and fast, so they’ll definitely use plenty of heavy sets with Cameron Fleming and Michael Williams on the field. 

Then they’ll get Jackson some work and hopefully take some of the pass rush pressure off of Brady. Of course it’s all contingent on actually moving the ball with the run and there’s no guarantee this season that they can get the running game going without loosening up the defense with the quick passing game first.

If they can’t move the ball on the ground the game will come down to Keshawn Martin and how many tough third down catches he can make. The Jets have the resources to take away Gronk and LaFell, so Martin (and James White) will have to come up big for the Pats to put up 20+ points.

Defensive Gameplan

The story of the first meeting was the Jets going 8-of-14 on third down, including conversion on three third-and-10′s. Those kind of conversions are killers, especially when you’re winning the battle on first and second down.

Whether it was because of injury or not, they held Chris Ivory and the Jets run game to just 89 yards rushing. That set up plenty of third and longs but the Pats just couldn’t get off the field and thus, the game was really close. 

Last time the Pats double Brandon Marshall and gave Eric Decker to Malcolm Butler. Decker had six catches for 94 yards and five of them came on third down.

Can the Jets get their running game going this time? Malcom Brown and Alan Branch will need their best games as nothing breaks the Patriots defense quicker than when their run defense goes soft.

Then there’s Bilal Powell in the passing game who has emerged as a threat out of the backfield. They might need to put a safety on him, but…

Devin McCourty’s likely absence will impact how well they can double team Brandon Marshall. What if Chung can’t go either? Duron Harmon will be a huge key player and we might see Nate Ebner or Tavon Wilson playing an important in-box role with coverage responsibilities.

Final Analysis

As much as I’d love to put a huge nail in the Jets playoff coffins, I’m really only worried about not sustaining a playoff-run-altering injury. We’re so close, it seems like all the big guns should be ready for January, let’s just get through these last two games and make another run at this thing.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 15 vs. Tennessee Titans

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The New England Patriots have an early home finale this regular season, welcoming the floundering Tennessee Titans in a game that has me less worried about the scoreboard and more worried about injuries. Is there anything worse than losing an important player in a blowout? That’s what I really don’t want to see, and given how this season has gone, each of these last three games will terrify me.

In the last 10 games the Pats have put nine guys on IR. So do the math. Yup, scary.

The Pats should very likely clinch a bye this weekend, assuming the Steelers beat the Broncos, but ensuring the AFC championship is in New England is paramount, so the Pats need to keep riding their horses until that #1 seed is locked up.

And let’s be honest, the offense hasn’t exactly been clicking on all cylinders. Especially since Edelman went out, they’ve been up and down and often un-clutch. So nothing would be better with Edelman waiting in the wings to return, to finally see the offense take a big step forward.

Here’s the gameplan…

Offensive Gameplan

We have to start at the running back position with LeGarrette Blount being the latest injury victim to have his season end on IR. The Pats signed Montee Ball to their practice squad and met with Steven Jackson on Thursday, and I’d be down with putting them both on the active roster for these last three games to see what they can bring in the playoffs.

It’s just not realistic to think the Pats can close out playoff games handing off to Brandon Bolden and James White. Generally I think the running back position is one that is pretty manageable when it comes to plug-and-play, and with three games left the Pats do have enough time to find someone they can lean on for early downs and short yardage situations, but they have to start on it this weekend.

The Pats also signed Leonard Hankerson this week after he was released by the Falcons with an IR settlement. Prior to that he had 26 catches for 327 yards and four touchdowns for Atlanta. Hankerson has good size (6′2″) and should give the Pats another big outside option aside from Brandon LaFell, essentially filling the role Aaron Dobson vacated. For the same reason as the running back position, and the recent average play of LaFell and Scott Chandler, there’s no reason not to throw Hankerson into the mix.

Things are really looking up with Julian Edelman participating in a full pads practice this week. It makes me think he could very well be close to 100% in the playoffs and that is huge news. We know he, Amendola and Gronk will be the straws stirring the drink, but I think the Patriots still need to figure out who will be the reliable options that go with them. 

If Hankerson clicks it will open up the four-receiver portion of the playbook once again, and that’s a great tool to have for the playoffs and one they didn’t have last year.

Against the Titans I think it’s all about putting the ball in the hands of the new and unproven as much as possible. Keshawn Martin showed real strides last week before muffing that punt. I’d love to see him build upon that performance.

The Pats offensive line seems like they’re starting to gel. That’s a great sign. It’s just that there are still a lot of questions at running back and how the lower-level weapons will fit into the attack when it’s all on the line. Those are the things that need to be figured out starting this week, and I’d prefer to do it in a way that reduces the risk to Brady, Gronk and Amendola.

Defensive Gameplan

Outside of Dion Lewis, no player loss this season has bugged me more than Dominique Easley. Most of all I just wanted our pass rush at maximum firepower in the playoffs for once and without Easley it’s not going to be that.

Still, Akiem Hicks should be fine in Easley’s role and though he doesn’t have Easley’s explosion, it’s not like we’re going back to the days of having an ineffective Vince Wilfork trying to get pressure up the gut on third and long.

The developments that make me feel a little better is (hopefully) the return of Dont’a Hightower this weekend and how Jerod Mayo is starting to look like his old self. If the Pats trust Mayo to play a bigger role it will only free Hightower and Jamie Collins up to do more damage. That alone will help offset the loss of Easley.

Then there’s the Devin McCourty injury which, given the depth at safety, is manageable. Duron Harmon slips into the free safety role while Patrick Chung remains the strong safety, but the questions come when we look at the multiple safety packages where McCourty and Harmon were the deep safeties. Does that mean Chung has to play deep safety again (eeeek)? Or how do Wilson/Ebner/Richards fit? It will be interesting and hopefully everyone gets a chance to get some experience.

This directly fits into the big key for this game – taking away Delaney Walker. That should immediately reveal much of how the Patriots plan to replace McCourty and how Chung’s role might change from his usual tight end cover duties.

Otherwise there’s a lot to be excited about with this defense going into the playoffs if they can somehow avoid another major injury which seems impossible at this point given how the season has gone.

One big player I’ll be focusing on is Chandler Jones. In my film review of the Texans game he looked lethargic. He hasn’t had a sack in four games and failed to register a solo tackle against the Texans for just the second time this season. As I said earlier this season, I think the Pats Super Bowl hopes depend on Jones. Now I’ll walk that back a bit if Jabaal Sheard can continue to be as dominant as he’s been the last couple games, but they still really need Chandler to be much better than he was in Houston.

Five Areas of Emphasis

1. Nobody Get Hurt!!!!! – Okay, this is a stupid area of emphasis because it’s really just up to the Football Gods, but I’m so sick of putting someone on IR every week. This has been such a strange season, where it feels like we’re constantly in a state of “just get healthy”, but once one guy comes back someone else goes down. Thus it’s hard to really know the Patriots offensive identity. So please, let’s just be done with the injuries this year.

2. Feed the New Guys – This is as much about protecting Brady, Gronk and Amendola as it is finding who we can trust to come through in the big moments in the playoffs. So continue to put the ball in the hands of Martin, LaFell and whoever they suit up at running back. Who knows, maybe we’ll find a gem ala Jabar Gaffney circa 2006 who can chip in with some key plays in the playoffs.

3. Linebackers Back – Just what does this defense look like with a full strength Jerod Mayo playing alongside experienced veterans Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins? We don’t really know, but it’s certainly exciting to think about and this game could be our first taste of it. The versatility of Collins and Hightower to play on the line of scrimmage with Mayo at MLB taking away the flat all seem like the perfect storm for an unstoppable trio.

4. Special Teams Be Special –  Special Teams have had some critical mistakes the last few games and that’s so uncharacteristic of the Patriots and something that absolutely cannot happen in the playoffs. Right now nothing scares me more than a turnover at a critical moment by the special teams in January. They need to restore everyone’s confidence with not just a safe performance, but one that shows why they were the best special teams unit in the league before things started going south against the Eagles.

5. Win – This is the most slamdunk game of the season and the Pats don’t often miss on those. We all know the playoff scenarios and it’s obviously far preferable to keep our fate in our own hands. This just isn’t a game the Pats can lose at this time of year. Most of all it would be nice to get a total team win, setting up the last major showdown of the season with a hungry and surging Jets team.

Prediction: Patriots 42, Titans 6

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 14 at Houston Texans

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The final quarter of the 2015 season begins with the Patriots needing a win to get back on track against a team filled with their former coaches and players in Houston. We’ve seen former Patriot games in the past – Mangini with the Jets, Romeo Crennel with the Browns, Matt Cassel has popped up a couple times as well, along with Thomas Dimitroff and the Falcons, but this is the most fascinating one yet. 

Obviously so much of what Bill O’Brien is trying to build with the Texans is influenced directly by Bill Belichick and O’Brien’s time in New England. That message is only reinforced by defensive coordinator RAC, linebackers coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator George Godsey. So in many ways, the Patriots are facing a slightly distorted mirror image of themselves with one major difference at the quarterback position.

Of all Brady’s former backups Hoyer has always been my favorite. Not that he’s the best, but I like the way he competes and I’ve been rooting for him to catch a break for a long time. So it sucks that we’re going to have to destroy him this week but that’s how it goes.

Beyond the similarities and connections, both of these teams really need this game. Houston is on the bubble for the playoffs, while the Patriots are on the bubble for a bye. Neither team has much margin for error left, so if you’re a fan of football this game should be interesting to watch on a number of levels.

Here’s the gameplan for the Pats to break their two-game losing streak at the expense of some old friends.

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Offensive Gameplan

When the Giants were looking at how to slow down the Patriots in Super Bowl 42 one game they studied was the Pats 34-17 win over Romeo Crennel’s Browns. Now that score doesn’t look like the Browns had Brady et al figured out, but Moss and Welker combined for just 7 catches for 65 yards. 

Obviously things are much different now, but it shows that Romeo Crennel has a good feel for what the Patriots like to do on offense. Has that changed now? Yes, but Crennel has plenty of pieces to give New England problems.

The biggest one is of course JJ Watt who will be playing despite a broken hand. The thought of Watt one-on-one against Marcus Cannon gives me the spins. But they’ll move Watt around as well, and really, any matchup along our offensive line, outside of maybe Vollmer, isn’t ideal. After seeing Fletcher Cox abuse Josh Kline and Shaq Mason especially last week, I’m not feeling great about taking Watt out of the game.

Then there’s old pal Vince Wilfork who must be looking forward to his own interior matchups against two rookies at guard, though I will say that Brian Stork is playing like a maniac right now and should hold up well against Wilfork.

Add in Jadaveon Clowney and the Pats have plenty to worry about with the Texans’ front. The ideal way to take them out of the game, especially if Gronk is out again, is the quick passing game.

That’s always the bread and butter, but the Pats have gotten away from it in recent weeks because guys like LaFell, Chandler and Martin just can’t get open as quickly as Edelman, Lewis and Gronk could.

Teams with dynamic run games have run well on the Texans this year – Buffalo put up 187 yards last week – but let’s not kid ourselves, we haven’t had a dynamic run game since Lewis went down. Blount showed signs of life last week, but the Pats ignored the run in the early third quarter and abandoned it entirely as the Eagles’ lead grew.

So as I see it, let’s finally commit to the James White spread offense with 11 personnel. Use Michael Williams as an extra blocker. LaFell on the outside, Martin and Amendola on the inside, and let Brady go to work with the quick passing game.

Defensive Gameplan

Two big things to watch in this one – whether Dont’a Hightower is back and whether Malcolm Butler gets DeAndre Hopkins.

If Hightower is back we can finally start building the defense back up for the playoffs. He and Collins are devastating together. They’re both good on their own of course, but having them both out there makes them both so much better. We might have to wait another week on Hightower though.

There’s no question, the Texans offense is Hopkins. He has 10 TDs and twice the targets, catches and yards of any other weapon on their roster. We talk about Belichick making teams play left-handed, well that means taking Hopkins out of the game. 

But my question is can Butler do it alone, or is Hopkins such a big part of the offense it’s worth putting Harmon over the top of him as well? Hoyer isn’t afraid to take shots to Hopkins and whether or not the Texans get any big plays out of them will define how successful they are on offense.

Another interesting matchup is Cecil Shorts in the slot. I’d assume Logan Ryan gets Nate Washington, but can the Pats continue using Patrick Chung in the slot corner role vs. Shorts? Justin Coleman could be back, or new signee Leonard Johnson could get thrown into the mix as well, but Shorts seems like he’d be a mismatch with Chung, who missed Wednesday practice with a foot injury (he was back Thursday).

Otherwise up front the Pats will do what they do. Malcolm Brown gets better each week and forms a solid interior with Alan Branch. Dominique Easley missed last week’s game but should be good to go this week. Would love to see him start making a consistent impact one of these games. He’s flashed at times, but was largely invisible against the Broncos when he was really needed.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Take Away Hopkins – This is probably a two-man job with Butler getting him in man coverage and Harmon going over the top. The drop off to Washington, and Shorts is that extreme, and with the way Logan Ryan is playing it’s really Shorts that could be the problem. We’re well-familiar with this result – the Pats take away the star receiver and then some nobody kills them. I don’t think Hoyer/Shorts have that game in them.

2. Help with Watt – Even with one bum hand, the Pats need to find Watt on every snap and make sure there are two guys to block him, especially when it’s Marcus Cannon on the edge. I’d basically make Michael Williams into Watt’s shadow, whether he has to be on the edges or even in the backfield. Watt cannot destroy this game.

3. Aggressive Defense – The Pats aren’t a very aggressive defense, at least in terms of sending blitzers, but I think this is the week to throw the sink at Hoyer. Of course it’s a lot easier if Hightower and Collins are out there, they’re devastating when it comes to the A-gap blitzes. Hoyer struggles most when he feels the pressure coming so forcing him to make the right read for the quick throws should force him into mistakes.

4. Brady Trust the New Guys – I saw quite a few instances of Brady ignoring Chandler or Martin when they were open last week. He needs to stop trying to force things and return to his old strategy of his favorite receiver being the open one. He has to stop forcing things to LaFell to try and get him on track. Lean on Martin and Amendola, and most especially, James White. This offense is best when the 3rd down back is heavily involved, so the more touches for White, the better.

5. Win – The down period for this season is over. It’s time now to start getting healthy and re-establishing our identity on offense and defense. The Texans are not pushovers and they should come out with a fearless gameplan with some unexpected twists that old Pats coaches always seem to break out. Most of all I just want to see a full 60 minute effort out of the 2015 Pats. It seems like they haven’t put one of those together in forever. Hopefully a two-game losing streak has captured everyone’s attention and with the playoffs approaching, now is the time to kick our best football into gear.

Prediction – Patriots 24, Texans 13

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 13 vs. Philadephia Eagles

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It’s hard to believe it’s already Week 13 and we’re on the verge of the last quarter of the 2016 season! Each week the playoffs get a little bit closer and hopefully the return of some of our key players who have been lost since the Week Four bye week.

This Patriots offense is now a shell of what it was in those first three weeks when they looked unstoppable. The NFL season is one of attrition and more often than not it’s the healthiest teams that make the biggest pushes to the Super Bowl. But the Pats keep grinding regardless of their personnel losses and this week figures to be maybe their biggest test yet without Rob Gronkowski.

The only silver lining is that there really isn’t anyone for defenses to key on anymore, and there’s no longer anyone for Brady to really lock in on either. The current shape of the team reminds me a lot of the 2001-2004 teams where there weren’t really any “elite” weapons, just guys who got open and made plays on offense, and a defense that was in its prime.

The Eagles season is hanging by a thread. Yes, they’re still within striking distance of the NFC East title, but they’ve lost three in a row and looked listless in their latest loss to the Lions, generating just 227 yards of offense. Meanwhile their defense has given up 951 total yards of offense the last two weeks.

Here’s the gameplan to dispatch the Eagles and get back on track as we hit the three-quarter point of the season…

Offensive Gameplan

Despite getting lit up the last two weeks, the Eagles defense is not as terrible as it would seem and with the Patriots depleted weaponry it’s not a stretch to think moving the ball will be tough for Tom Brady.

It would really help to get Danny Amendola back, and from the sound of it, there seems to be a good chance he’s back. That would leave him, Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler as the offensive core, with a sprinkling of Keshawn Martin. I think it’s just too soon to expect anything from newcomers Trey Williams (RB) or Damaris Johnson (WR).

The good news is that with Sebastian Vollmer moving to LT it seems like the offensive line is starting to settle in and that’s what it all starts with. If Brady feels comfortable it won’t really matter who he is throwing the ball to. Playing at home I expect the offensive line to really start looking good, but the Eagles’ pass rushers like Connor Barwin (who has always seemed like a perfect Patriots fit to me btw), Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox are talented and can cause problems.

The bad news is losing Gronk really kills what the Pats can do, especially without his blocking. Chandler would seem to be the top fit, but he’s not the blocker Gronk is, so you can’t just slide him into the Y-TE spot and expect him to seal the edge or dominate his man like Gronk could in the running game.

And yes, it’s the running game that has been the biggest significant problem for the 2015 Patriots post-Dion Lewis. So now, if the Pats want to establish the run, they’ll like have to three tackles out there, or Michael Williams at TE if he is back in the lineup. So their intentions will be clear by their personnel and given the struggles with the run game even with Gronk, it’s unlikely it can be a run-heavy attack with Chandler in there.

So this all points me to the direction of leaning toward a spread approach, but again, it’s not like the wide receiver depth is great right now. But if you have Amendola and LaFell that’s a good start, but the real key will be Chandler because the tight end spot is so vital to keep the chains moving.

Perhaps we see James White get thrown into the fire, but at this point I’m no longer holding my breath and would love to at least see Trey Williams thrown into the fire ala Danny Woodhead in 2010 sooner rather than later.

There aren’t a ton of options and this will make the Patriots intentions clear from the start of the game. Still, if the OL protects Brady, they should be okay.

Defensive Gameplan

Dont’a Hightower has been at practice this week with his sprained MCL, wearing a brace, and signs are also pointing to Jamie Collins finally coming back as well this week. If those two guys are back in, we’ll finally have our defense back.

Collins is the gamechanger, not only for what he can do, but what he then allows Hightower to do. Collins is also a huge upgrade on Jonathan Freeny who’s been playing a ton in Collins’ absence. Freeny has been serviceable but is not a dynamic playmaker in any aspect of the game.

With their full complement of pass rushers, except for possibly Dominique Easley who has missed practice this week with an ankle injury, the Patriots should be able to attack the Eagles quarterback and force mistakes. Expect rookie Geneo Grissom to see some time as a third down pass rusher.

Due to the lack of depth at cornerback with Justin Coleman still out with a hand injury, it’s likely the Pats will match up on the Eagles’ wide outs. Butler on Jordan Matthews would make sense to avoid allowing him to matchup on Patrick Chung from the slot on third downs.

With their defense just about fully intact the Patriots should be well-prepared to counter the Eagles no huddle pace. As always, the biggest key is winning the one-on-one matchups up front. Chandler Jones, Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard should be ready to make some noise and it can only help by having Jamie Collins back behind them.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Force Feed Chandler – I’m not convinced Julian Edelman is going to just step back in and be the unstoppable playmaker he was before. Hence if this team is going to make a Super Bowl run they’ll need to develop another weapon to go with LaFell/Amendola, hopefully a fully good-to-go Gronk and whatever Edelman can bring with his foot still not 100% (assuming that he even does come back for the first playoff game). Chandler has to be that guy, and now with Gronk out, Brady and Chandler have no choice but to find some chemistry. They’ve shown flashes of it at times, but Chandler’s drops and the other targets have made it easy for Brady to look away from him. Chandler has the size and talent to be far better than he’s been. It’s now or never.

2. Witness the Power of a Fully Operational Defense – I know Hightower might not play and even if he does he might be a little hobbled, but if he does suit up along with Collins it will be the first time we’ve had them both out there in over a month. Yes, the Pats have plenty of talent, but the combo of Hightower and Collins is transformative and opens up the full bag of tricks the Patriots have on defense. Is this the week we see that peak defense? Maybe. But it’s coming and once they’re all back at full power we’ll see just how far they can take us.

3. Protect Brady – This should always be a key, but without Gronk or Edelman it’s especially true this week. If the offensive line has a bad game the Patriots could very well lose this game. Their run game has been anemic and it’s hard to argue they can suddenly be better this week. Maybe if the game unfolds just right they can get LeGarrette Blount going, but what we can’t expect is them to come out an “establish the run”. So it looks like a heavy throwing game for Brady, and without guys who can get open quick (outside of hopefully Amendola), Brady will need time. It’s up to the pass protection to give it to hime.

4. Find a Gem – Maybe this one is just wishful thinking but the offense really lacked playmakers against the Broncos, leaving the Pats to cobble together a competent performance from guys who can’t make defenders miss in space. I don’t know if Keshawn Martin or the new guys Trey Williams or Damaris Johnson are those kind of guys, but at this point there’s no reason not to throw them into the fire and see what they can do. Probably a long shot wtih Williams and Johnson since they haven’t even been in New England a week, but maybe if the Pats get a bit of a lead, it couldn’t hurt to get the ball in their hands and see if they can break a tackle or two.

5. Win – As always, it’s the most important thing and with a shrunken lead in the AFC the Pats need to get back on track with their 11th win of the season. But it won’t be easy, that’s for sure, especially with the Eagles needing a win to save their season. But if the Pats can put some points on the board early it’s possible the Eagles will roll over. The better thing for the Patriots overall might just be needing a sixty minute effort, something they didn’t turn in against the Broncos. As much as I’d like a stress-free blowout, winning a close contest might be a better building block toward a Super Bowl run. But honestly, just give me a game without a major injury. I’m praying Gronk’s survival last week will turn the tide.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Eagles 13

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 12 at Denver Broncos

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How quickly the dynamics of this game have changed. Instead of another Tom Brady
– Peyton Manning duel we’re getting a defensive battle that could see the over/under remain below 40.

Regardless of who is or isn’t playing, this is an important game in the AFC and if the Pats are without Danny Amendola
, they’re going to have to find a way to move the ball on a very stout defense that has all the pieces necessary to stop them.

But the Patriots’ defense are no slouches either and they should give Brock Osweiler plenty of problems in his second start, even if the Pats are still without Jamie Collins , as expected.

The Patriots have had their struggles in Denver, winning there just once (2011) since Tom Brady lost his first playoff game there in January of 2006.

What do the Pats need to do to get to 11-0 and put a tight grip on the top seed in the conference? Here’s my gameplan…

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Offensive Gameplan

The entire offensive gameplan really hinges on Danny Amendola’s availability, and if he can’t go things are going to be a little scary against a defense with as much talent as we’ve faced.

But here’s the thing, in three games since 2007 Brady has thrown for 1028 yards, 12 touchdowns and 0 interceptions against Wade Phillips (’07 HC Cowboys, ‘12 DC Texans (x 2)). And none of those teams were exactly pushovers. So it would seem Brady has a pretty good handle on Phillips’ scheme.

Replicating that kind of execution with Chris Harper as the primary chain mover might be a little tough and that illustrates the bigger problem – the Broncos man coverage. The hardest skill for a wide receiver is beating man coverage before the pass rush gets to the quarterback. Can the Pats’ receivers defeat Talib/Harris? They’re gonna need Amendola.

My gameplan offensively is simple and the big piece is giving James White a chance to start. Don’t run Blount into the teeth of the defense right out of the gate. Spread them out and try to establish the quick man-beating passing game. Don’t completely ignore the run, but let White run some screens and draws before moving to any power game with Blount.

Someone will have to step up this week with or without Amendola. White, Brandon Bolden, Aaron Dobson and LaFell all came through in key spots against the Bills (and Harper would’ve too if not for a Cannon penalty). They’ll need more of those plays from the secondary weapons. If Scott Chandler’s ever going to have a big game, now might be the time.

But really it all feeds into the offensive line. They should be better this week. Phillips won’t run the same kind of deception Rex did (though he would if he was smart), so they should have an easier time picking up the pass rushers. Still, those are some good pass rushers, even without Demarcus Ware, but this week it will be more physical than mental and usually the Pats offensive line are good in games like that.

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Defensive Gamplan

It was fun watching a great cornerback like Darrelle Revis last year and Brandon Browner brought great physicality, but this is a better defense this year and I enjoy watching them far more now.

It goes back to the early and mid-2000′s when we knew the Patriots had the baddest defense on the block. On every big moment in the game you just knew someone would come through with a play and more often than not they did.

Now it’s starting to feel the same way. It’s not all about Ninkovich and Chandler Jones. There’s so much talent and depth, and with the rotation they’re able to keep guys fresh. Dominique Easley, Jabaal Sheard and Malcom Brown are causing chaos up front and it’s been so long since the Patriots have had that.

Now Brock Osweiler plays directly into what the Patriots defense does best – get after the quarterback. No longer does Bill Belichick have to rely on disguising coverage as much against a young quarterback. Now he can show it’s man defense and simply challenge the quarterback to get through his reads to find who can get open before the pass rush gets to him. This isn’t easy against the Pats’ front four now.

There’s no question the Broncos have playmakers who can beat man coverage, so the Pats will likely live or die on their pass rush in this one. But they don’t have to worry as much about containing Osweiler, they can just attack. I like that formula.

Though Malcolm Butler covered Emmanuel Sanders last year and did it well, I think he likely goes to Demaryius Thomas now, with Logan Ryan on Sanders (assuming he plays after sitting out last week).

Otherwise, I like the Patriots’ chances of shutting down the run and putting the game in Osweiler’s hands. The Pats are as stout against the run as I can ever remember, and unless they have their first bad game since September, they should give Brady and the offense a chance to win the game no matter how few points they put up.

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Five Points of Emphasis

1. WRs Win Quick: Best way to attack man coverage and minimize the impact of your pass protection? Get the ball out quick with your wide receivers winning off the line of scrimmage. This is easier said than done, especially against perhaps the best secondary in the NFL. But sitting back on long-developing routes, forcing the pass protection to stop the Denver front for extended time, is not the route to victory in this one.

2. Unleash James White: White hasn’t been asked to do much in two games since Dion Lewis went down, but has done well and come through in some big spots in a limited role. Now why not just throw him into the fire? Start the game with him. See what he can do in a bigger role. He has to be confident coming off two touchdowns against the Bills.  Now is the time to start making him a bigger part of the offense, a part they’re really going to need in January.

3. Unleash the Pass Rush: Just what exactly is the ceiling of this Patriots pass rush with everyone healthy and clicking? We still haven’t seen it and won’t until Jamie Collins is back, but they looked like a really solid NFL defense in recent weeks. I truly believe the defense can (and will likely have to) win this game for the Patriots, even more so than last week against the Bills. Attack Osweiler. Force mistakes. Don’t let them have the time for the deep throws to Thomas and Sanders. That’s the formula. Once they get Collins back, look out. 

4. Win First Down: So many of the Patriots offensive struggles against the Bills were because they struggled on first down and usually ended up in third-and-longs. This week they must find a way to consistently get five yards on first down instead of two. Staying on time with the offense will keep Denver from their comfort zone with long yardage third downs.

5. Win: Yes, the Pats could clinch their division this week, but there’s still a lot to work out before the playoff run. What matters most is getting the top seed and a win in Denver would be a huge tie breaker to hold. They very well might have to play this team again, and perhaps next time they’ll have some version of Peyton Manning. It’s far better to know a potential playoff game would be in Foxboro.

Prediction: Patriots 17, Broncos 14

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 11 vs. Buffalo Bills

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It’s been just two months since the Patriots last saw the Bills and put 500 yards up on them, but now the Patriots are a different team, especially on offense, and must find new avenues to deal with Rex Ryan.

The good news is that Sebastian Vollmer
, Marcus Cannon
and Tre Jackson all returned to practice this week, meaning the Pats could have a healthy offensive line for the first time since losing Nate Solder in Week 5. Since Solder went down it’s been a tackle apocalypse and we certainly don’t want to keep rolling out the makeshift offensive line against a defensive front like Buffalo’s.

The Bills are coming off their biggest win of the season over the Jets and have won two-straight. They’re currently 3-1 in the division and very much in the thick of the wild card hunt, so this will be a confident team that should play loose.

Here’s the gameplan to put them down in front of a national audience.

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Offensive Gameplan

Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis accounted for 247 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills in the first game and now the Pats have to figure out a way to replace that production. The biggest issue is that when you look back over the years at how the offense has faired against Rex Ryan’s defenses, it’s the shifty receivers, tight ends and running backs doing most of the damage in the passing game.

Outside receivers like Randy Moss, Brandon LaFell and even Aaron Dobson are just complimentary pieces in these gameplans usually. What gets it done against Rex’s scheme are the quick man-beaters and I wonder how the Pats can adjust without their most reliable man-beater.

The Bills will likely overcommit to take Gronkowski out of the game. Which means LaFell, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Martin will have to step up and play bigger roles.

By the same token, the Pats must find some passing production with their running backs. They didn’t do much with James White or Brandon Bolden against the Giants, but this gameplan is going to require them to be involved. The Bills are 32nd in the NFL covering running backs by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They must be attacked there.

The Pats ran the ball just 15 times in Week 2, a sign of respect for the Bills’ defense, but with reduced passing weapons will they be forced to feed LeGarrette Blount a bit more? Blount was just coming off his one week suspension in Week 2, and that could’ve been a factor as well.

Still, this is Rex Ryan and we know how he will attack Brady and it’s often effective. Their corners Ronald Darby and Stephon Gilmore are playing very well right now, and you have to wonder if one of them sees significant time on Gronk, likely Gilmore.

There’s no question LaFell and Amendola are the big keys if the Bills are actually able to take Gronk away. But the two guys I’m more interested in are Dobson/Martin and Scott Chandler. Dobson intrigues me with his size, but no one knows for sure if he or Martin is higher on the depth chart at the moment.

Yes, the Pats lose a significant player without Edelman, but what they’ll be forced to evolve to is a bigger lineup. This could be the game we’ve all been waiting for from Chandler. 

But even if it’s not him, someone is going to have to step up and play a bigger role, especially on third down. If I was Rex I would double Amendola and Gronk on third downs and force Brady to go anywhere else.

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Defensive Gameplan

The Bills moved the ball right down the field on their opening drive in Week 2 with the Pats playing their usual Cover-1 Man defense, but then the Pats shifted to a Cover-3 for most of the rest of the game and it shut the Bills down until they started letting Tyrod Taylorout of the pocket.

Yes, the BIlls had three touchdown drives with some explosive plays to make the game appear closer than it was. Still, those plays are concerning and should give the Bills more confidence coming into this one than they might’ve had if the Pats kept the throttle down when they were up 37-13.

The Patriots do prefer man defense, so it will be interesting to see if they start out immediately with the Cover-3 coverage that was successful for them. With mobile quarterbacks it’s often better to be in zone anyway since all the coverage defenders aren’t totally consumed with their receiver, allowing the quarterback to make a break for it when he sees an opening.

For that same reason expect a steady and disciplined pass rush designed to keep Taylor in the pocket with one spy dropping off the rush and mirroring him.

But the biggest aspect of the Bills is their run game, ranked #1 by Football Outsiders DVOA and 2nd overall in rushing yards. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ run defense has been outstanding in recent weeks after being a big question mark early in the season and are currently ranked #1 in rushing yards allowed but only 12th in DVOA. This is likely where the game is won or lost and will definitely prove whether or not the Patriots’ run defense is legitimately one of the best in the NFL.

Shut down McCoy and Williams, and force Taylor to beat you from the pocket on long third downs. That’s the recipe for success.

One other interesting area is the Bills are just behind the Pats, ranking 6th in turnover differential. The Patriots often rely on turnovers and if the Bills play as safe with the ball as they have been in recent weeks they might hang around until the end.

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Points of Emphasis

1. Stop the Run: Easily a cliche that could be used every week, but this week it’s an essential key given the run game is the lifeblood of the Bills offense. Malcom Brown and Alan Branch have been outstanding in recent weeks, as have the other rotational DTs. This week we’ll see just how good they really are.

2. Brady-to-Chandler: With Gronk likely doubled and Amendola likely to be locked in a tough matchup with Darby, the Pats must find another reliable option to carry them to January. Scott Chandler has been just a bit out of sync with Brady so far, hitting a few good plays, but also missing some. Chandler could be the forgotten man in Buffalo’s gameplan, opening the door for a breakout game against his former team.

3. Jame White, Now is the Time: For similar reasons to the matchups above, and the Bills’ struggles to cover running backs in the passing game, this is a good time to see what we have with James White. He was solid in a limited role against the Giants, but I’d love to see him get thrown into the fire against the Bills. He might very well make some noise.

4. Disciplined Rush: If they’re stopping the run, the next step is to keep Tyrod Taylor in the pocket and few teams have the kind of discipline to do so like the Patriots do. The Pats shut down Taylor last time until he started getting out of the pocket and making plays downfield. Containing him is vital.

5. Win: Always the fifth key because it’s all that matters, a win here would essentially seal the AFC East title and it’s not even December yet. But most important is finding out how the offense will evolve now without Edelman. They need another threat to step up to stress the defense. Whether it’s White, Chandler, Dobson or Martin who will have Brady’s trust? Then, when Edelman gets back for the playoffs, the Pats will be even deeper and more difficult to stop.

Prediction: Patriots 24, Bills 9

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 10 at New York Giants

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It’s hard to believe that the Patriots haven’t beaten Eli and the Giants since they clinched 16-0 in December 2007. I remember that night especially well because the next morning my wife and I found out we were going to have our first kid. Yes, that was quite the 24 hours.

Now that zygote is a seven year old and has never been on the Earth for a Patriots win over the Giants. Crazy.

We all remember the Super Bowls, and I think Eli phrased it well this week when he said they just caught the Pats on the right days. Let’s be honest, the 2011 Patriots probably didn’t have much business winning the Super Bowl, especially with Gronk on one leg, so it’s still amazing to me how close that team came when you consider just how bad their defense was.

It seemed though like everything had lined up for the 2011 Pats. First they knocked off the team that ended their season in 2005, the Broncos. Then they got revenge on the team that ended them in 2009, the Ravens. Finally came a chance to beat the team that killed their perfect season. It just seemed like fate that Brady and Belichick would get their fourth against the the Giants. But alas it unfolded in almost the same exact excruciating fashion as Super Bowl 42.

I’ve only seen Tom Brady
 lose two games live in person, and the 2011 regular season game against the Giants was one of them. We had a great pregame tailgate with Nick Stevens (aka Fitzy), Erik Frenz and the mystery man himself @PatriotsSB49. It felt like we were exercising some demons that day, but again it was the same kind of result with Eli tearing our heart out with a last minute drive.

None of the Patriots will say it this week, but I’ll say it: A win over the Giants this weekend means something. Yes, they are almost completely different teams than the last time they met, even if the quarterbacks and coaches are the same. Yes, winning Super Bowl 49 took some of the stink off of SB42 and SB46, but still, beating the Giants in their own stadium will put a final nail in those losses, at least until we see the Giants in the Super Bowl again, which I’m not holding my breath for. 

Here’s the gameplan to finally take down Eli and Coughlin.

Offensive Gameplan

Now things are starting to get a bit interesting. The last few weeks I slipped into a “just do what we do” mode with the offensive gameplans, but now, with injuries to Sebastian Vollmer and Dion Lewis, there has to be some management going on.

You look at the Giants defense and it’s a shadow of what it was in those Super Bowl years. Yes, JPP is back and should help their pass rush but if you turn on any of their games this year, especially the Saints one, they’re just getting torched.

That might lead you to think this is a ‘spread ‘em out and eat ‘em alive’ gameplan, which is probably what they’ll do, but that begs the question of how will they replace Dion Lewis?

Let me start by saying Brandon Bolden is a valuable player to this team. He is an excellent special teams player and that shouldn’t sound like a backhanded compliment because the Patriots have built their dynasty on great special teams as much as (almost) anything. However Bolden is not a playmaker as a running back. He’s going to get what’s there and then he’s going down the first guy who tries to tackle him. 

So I think James White
 plays a ton in this one, at least early on. He’s not going to be as good as Dion Lewis was, but can he be a close proximity to what Shane Vereen was? Yes. Can he develop enough confidence and experience over the last eight regular season games to do what Vereen did in last year’s playoffs? Yes. He just needs the chance, but I think just as Lewis defined the new evolution of the offense in the first half of the season, White can define it in the second half. He’ll just need some time and experience to really find a groove, but the Pats really have no other options at this point and he does have the talent to make the plays necessary in this major role in the Pats’ offense.

The other issue will be at tackle, where I’m guessing Bryan Stork
 gets the start at right tackle? Yes this is scary, and he’ll likely have Michael Williams next to him to help on many downs. But what about Cam Fleming at left tackle? How much help is he going to need? Does that mean Gronk has to stay in to block more, thus limiting the Pats offense even further? 

I still hold out hope that Cannon and Vollmer will be back soon and the offense can find some continuity down the stretch to the playoffs. But for now it’s just about surviving. That means doing whatever is necessary to help give Brady enough time to carve the Giants secondary, which he should do.

Maybe the answer is to use more empty sets, reducing White’s role at least in this one so that two guys can be kept in to protect the edges, but still keeping three wide receivers in the game to challenge the secondary matchups. 

Either way, getting by with a makeshift line is the key in this game and if they can keep it together like they did against the Redskins, the Pats should move the ball. If they don’t this game could look a lot like the Giants games we’ve become accustomed to the last three times.

Defensive Gameplan

Not much of a surprise here that it all starts with Odell Beckham Jr. One key thing I remember from Super Bowl 46 was that Belichick keyed on taking away Nicks and Cruz and forcing Eli to beat them with Manningham (and guess what, he did).

The question is whether or not you stick Butler on him or Ryan. I tend to think Ryan might be the better choice, as he can then get some help from Duron Harmon over the top. Of course the double team will be a rotating cast of characters, but generally I think Ryan/Harmon is the way to go. That leaves Butler for Rueben Randle.

The real x-factor is old pal Shane Vereen, especially if the sick Jamie Collins doesn’t play. Running back coverage is often how Collins is deployed and his familiarity with Vereen would’ve been helpful. There just isn’t another linebacker after Collins that is a favorable matchup with Vereen which means the duties may shift to a safety.

Eli has 19 touchdowns and is experienced enough to confidently attack the Patriots’ secondary. The Patriots just haven’t been able to put him on the “bad” Eli track early in their games against him. Now the remade secondary gets one of their biggest quarterback tests of the year and I think they still have something to prove.

Not to take away any credit from the solid job the overall defense has done this year, but it hasn’t been a murderer’s row like last year was. Roethlisberger and Luck (injured) are the only quarterbacks they’ve faced that I’d consider good. Tannehill and Fitzpatrick are okay and maybe capable of beating the Patriots, but more often than not the Pats will force them into game-deciding amounts of turnovers.

Eli has some really good weapons and he’s not going to be afraid of the Patriots. Plus he’s at home, so he should be turn in a good game. How the Pats shut him down this time will tell us a lot about them. Let’s just hope it doesn’t come down to one final chance for Eli to win the game again.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Ball Security – The Giants lead the league in turnover differential (Pats are second). They’ve forced 13 turnovers in their last four games. So really, that’s as big a reason why they’re 5-4. The Pats ball security is very good. In fact it’s so good people think they’re cheating, but it’s just that they know how important not turning the ball over is and it’s a huge key this week. 

2. Take Away Odell – It’s no secret what a dynamic player Beckham is and the Patriots always excel at taking away a team’s primary piece. Beckham will still make a couple plays (did you ever hear about that one-handed catch he made last year?) but the key is tackle him and prevent the yards after the catch. The Pats have been excellent at this in 2015, but this might be their biggest test yet.

3. Protect Tom – Maybe you do have to lean a bit more on Gronk as a pass blocker this week, but we all know what happens when the Pats’ offensive line has one of those games where they look completely out of sync. We all just assume that any offensive line injury can be overcome because the Pats have been doing it for so long, but this year’s tackle injuries are as bad as it’s ever been. Luckily the interior guys are in good shape at the moment and that helps but this will be a game if the Pats makeshift line isn’t on point. 

4. Attack Deep – It’s hard to watch Drew Brees throwing downfield to wide open targets and not think the Pats can do the same thing. Maybe that means LaFell and Dobson on the outside, but Meriweather and Collins, the two Giants safeties, looked like Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum out there, blowing coverages and playing clueless. Of course, throwing deep balls require good protection so that is what they’ll have to do first.

5. Win – This is a mental game this week. Yes, the Patriots can say all they want about this being a different Giants team, but I think a win over them still means a lot psychologically. I am hopeful that Cannon and Vollmer will be back soon, but until then the Pats must find a way to make their offensive line work on the edges. I don’t think it’s a lock that they just line up anyone at the tackle spots and everything keeps clicking. It could, but there will likely be moments where the offense sputters because of edge pressure. We’re on to the second half of the season, time to start defining who this Patriots team will be when the playoffs hit.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Giants 21