Today the “Patriots Draft Primer” segment will take a look at the Quarterback position.
Where we stand:
The Patriots quarterback room is currently made up of Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham, and Jacob Dolegala.
Rumors and analyst commentary have been circulating in recent weeks that Cam Newton’s passing ability will be much better in 2021. Personally, I think that is a cop out statement. It really can’t be any worse than it was in 2020 so of course it is going to be better. Newton has never been known for his accuracy and perhaps his best days are behind him. The Patriots aren’t asking Cam to be Tom, but he must be better than what he showed last season. His style of play seeks out contact at times which is no way to sustain a healthy QB in the NFL. He needs to take care of the ball (both when throwing and when mobilizing outside of the pocket) and know when to get down. Newton’s mechanics, mainly his footwork, were awful during 2020. I expect to see a better performance in 2021 but I am not sure it will be enough, and he isn’t the long-term answer.
I am a big Jarrett Stidham fan from his days at Baylor. He showed promise early on as a gun slinger that translated well to his first year at Auburn. The talks after the 2017 season were that Stidham would be a first round selection in the NFL draft the following year. Stidham was truly a victim of circumstance during the 2018 Auburn season that saw him play behind a decimated offensive line along with his top two pass catching options out with injuries. Gus Malzahn’s wonky Auburn system also did no favors for a QB looking to show off his arm talent. The other rumored landing spots of Texas Tech, Texas A&M, or Oregon would have been better landing spots to showcase his skills.
During his first preseason Jarrett put up the best preseason numbers of any quarterback in the Belichick era, including those of Tom Brady and Jimmy G. However, his in-season performances have been less than stellar whenever he has seen game action. Having no 2020 preseason most likely hurt his development, but one would have to think that with all the shake up in 2020 if the staff felt like Stidham had what it took then he would have received a few starts down the stretch. Stidham has the arm, poise, and maturity to be the Patriots starter, but he has yet to show the decision-making ability. I want this to happen so badly, but I think this ship has sailed. Stidham has two more years remaining on his contract.
Draft
Patriots Draft Primer – Wide Receiver
Today kicks off our new segment titled “Patriots Draft Primer” that will focus in on a highlighted position of need leading up to the April 29th NFL Draft. We begin with the Wide Receiver position.
Where we stand:
News broke today that Julian Edelman is doubtful to play a full 2021 season due to his knee injury. Even if he sees some field time Julian is a shell of his former self. The wear and tear of injuries from being Brady’s security blanket over the years is taking its toll. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Edelman hang them due to this.
Aside from Edelman the WR room consists of:
Nelson Agholor
Kendrick Bourne
N’Keal Harry
Jakobi Meyers
Gunner Olszewski
Devin Smith
Isaiah Zuber
Kristian Wilkerson
Matthew Slater (Primarily Special Teams and a blocking decoy)
What we need:
The two traits that this Wideout group lacks are a speed deep threat to take the top off the defense and a big bodied receiver not named N’Keal Harry.
Lets first address the need for speed. The Patriots have been one of the slower wideout groups in the NFL over the past decade. It is almost as if Belichick is afraid of speed. In a league where offenses are spreading wide receivers out and passing more than ever it is fair to say that speed kills. Just take a look at the Chiefs, Bucs, Cowboys, or Falcons Wideout rooms that are laced with speed. The Patriots have also struggled to gain separation which can be solved be increasing our WR speed. They partially addressed this with the addition of Agholor, but I would like to see another piece. Speed depth is crucial in building an offense that is a threat. The chiefs for example have arguably the top WR in the NFL with Tyreek Hill. Surrounding Hill’s speed they had burners in Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Byron Pringle who all had around or below 4.4 speed. This speed depth helps create mismatches against lesser cornerbacks and has the defense secondary always on their heels thinking deep.
Next let’s look at the need for a big bodied WR. N’Keal Harry has the size at 6-3 225 pounds but is afraid to use it. The man is bigger than the majority of secondary players in the NFL, yet he goes down so easily on end around carries when a 6-foot corner back attempts an arm tackle while falling down off the block. There is no excuse for this. Harry should be breaking these using his frame and muscle every time. It leads me to believe that this is a mental battle with Harry more than anything else. Harry has been the discussion of numerous trade talks, but in all honesty, I believe the Patriots hold on to him for one more year. His value potential exceeds the 4th or 5th rounder we will receive in return. The Patriots may defer on this style of WR given the two big Tight Ends they just signed in Free Agency, but it is still worth taking a look at.
Draft Options:
There are 65+ realistic WR options in this year’s NFL draft. Expect the Patriots to double dip on the WR position in some way during the 7 rounds. Here are some fits that would work in the Patriots system.
What will the Patriots do at Pick #15?
The Patriots have 3 options when it comes to draft day:
Option A – Move Up
The least likely scenario of the three. The only way I envision this happening is if they fall in love with one of the top QB prospects not named Trevor Lawrence and move up to get their guy. This would come in the form of Wilson, Fields, Lance, or Jones. None of these guys are a sure thing like TLaw and it would require giving up too much draft stock. For example, moving up to pick #9 would likely require a package of picks that includes our 2021 second rounder and a late round swap. All of this from the coach that values draft picks above all else seems like a stretch.
Option B – Stay put and pick at #15
An unlikely scenario, but one possibility of us staying at 15 is if Penn State Linebacker Micah Parsons falls into our lap. Just a few months back Parsons was a sure top 10 pick but with some rumors of off the field issues circulating this is something to watch for come draft day. A tackling machine that plays a similar game to that of Devin White from the Bucs. He would be a great successor to Hightower and a defensive building block for the future. Parsons is a playmaker that is all over the field and seems to shine in big moments. However, given the other laundry list of needs that this Patriots team has this position may be addressed in Free Agency.
Option C – Trade Back
This is the most likely scenario in my view. Bill has a history of trading back, especially early in the draft, to gain more capital. I see a situation where we trade back into the 18 – 22 range as perhaps the Colts or Titans move up to grab a falling talent. In the event that we do trade back there are two targets that stick out.
Zaven Collins – LB – Tulsa
The first thing that sticks out about Collins is his freakish athleticism. He was a human highlight reel at Tulsa while racking up defensive awards. A player that could line up at multiple spots on defense including on the edge and drop back into coverage against Tight Ends or Running Backs. His usage would be similar to that of former Patriot Jamie Collins.
Christian Barmore – DT – Alabama
The Saban to Foxboro pipeline strikes again! Barmore is the best pressure creating DT in the entire draft. Standing at 6-5 311 pounds Barmore is a day one difference maker that should see a significant amount of snaps as I only expect the Patriots to resign one of either Adam Butler or Lawrence Guy. This is the more likely play given our need at the position and some reinforcements coming back in the form of Hightower at the Linebacker position.
Only 57 days until Draft Day.
Four Best Patriots Rookie Free Agents Roster Bets
The Patriots officially announced 10 rookie free agent signings and with plenty of roster turnover this year, it’s a good bet one or two could make the roster.
Here’s a quick look back at the undrafteds that made the team over the last decade. As David Andrews confirmed, everyone is on a level playing field once they arrive in Foxboro, whether they were a high-round pick, a high-priced free agent or even a “drafterthought”.
- 2008: Ryan Wendell, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Gary Guyton
- 2009: Brian Hoyer
- 2010: Dane Fletcher, Sergio Brown, Kyle Love, Ross Ventrone
- 2011: Jeff Tarpinian
- 2012: Brandon Bolden, Justin Francis
- 2013: Joe Vellano, Kenbrell Thompkins
- 2014: Malcolm Butler
- 2015: David Andrews, Brandon King
- 2016: Jonathan Jones
- 2017: Adam Butler, Harvey Langi, Jacob Hollister, Cole Croston, Keionta Davis (IR)
- 2018: JC Jackson, Frank Herron (PS)
Who might have the best chance to make this year? Let’s take a look.
[Read more…] about Four Best Patriots Rookie Free Agents Roster BetsNotes from the Film Room: Projecting Patriots 2019 Rookie Class
I’ve spent the past week diving into any Patriots rookie film I can find and obviously there’s a ton out there. Each player sure has their Patriots-esque traits and seeing why the team picked them was pretty clear in almost every case.
How does each new rookie pick fit in? What’s their ceiling and who will they be in direct competition with? Let’s dive in now that I have a much better sense of all of them.
[Read more…] about Notes from the Film Room: Projecting Patriots 2019 Rookie ClassPats Posits: 2019 Draft Recap
The Patriots wrapped up their 2019 draft this weekend and unfortunately due to all kinds of personal craziness, including Endgame and GOT, I haven’t been able to sit down and bang a blog out until right now. It was tough, especially with redacted dying.
In truth, this is my favorite part of the draft now — when the Pats have their collection of draft picks and undrafted signings and I can dive in on each of them with purpose.
Instead of going through player-by-player, at this point I feel like I just need to get my reactions all off my chest so what better way to do that than with a bunch of Monday morning Posits.
[Read more…] about Pats Posits: 2019 Draft RecapPatsPropaganda 2019 Mock Draft
The NFL Draft is once again upon us! And with 12 picks of draft capital, the Patriots are poised to get the players they most want. And the good news is that their positions of needs are well-stocked with talent this year.
That’s a very good thing. With key departures this offseason, the 2019 Patriots still face questions at multiple positions. Talented rookies are the lifeblood of the NFL and with a mostly red-shirted 2018 draft class, a new act under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is clearly about to begin and this draft will play a huge role.
More important than the players I’ve got the team selecting below are the trends that emerged as I rifled through mock draft simulations. Here are some quick-fire thoughts on that before we get into the picks.
- The six picks in the first three rounds loom large. There were always a number of good fits to pick from almost every time through, especially at positions of need — wide receiver, tight end and safety.
- I found myself consistently double-dipping at both tight end and wide receiver. This made for some of the most fun, and hardest to decide, of all mock drafts in recent memory. I think that’s a good sign what the Patriots really need.
- The hit or miss positions were quarterback and tackle. I could never seem to land any of the few tackles I liked without really reaching at the expense of a really good receiver or tight end. The quarterbacks felt like less extreme reaches.
- Linebacker and cornerback are other deep positions.
- The fifth-round hole is a spot where they could really stand to pick up another selection.
- The seventh rounders are just ridiculous and it would make sense to cash them in to spread rounds 4-7 out.
Check out the PatsPropaganda Top 50 Big Board
[Read more…] about PatsPropaganda 2019 Mock Draft