PatsPropaganda

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Draft

Patriots 2016 Draft Fits Emerging

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Dont'a Hightower Patriots 2012 Draft Pick

Dont’a Hightower, one of the Patriots best draft picks.

In recent years I’ve been kind of burned out on the draft. It’s just so much speculation about an endless number of players, of which 10 might actually be taken by your team, and of those maybe two to five actually make an impact. Yes, there’s not much else to do during the offseason than looking for Patriots draft fits, but talking draft on twitter can be a full contact sport so I tend to keep my draft research and thoughts mostly to myself and really I think it serves me well to come to my own conclusions before I start comparing what I think to everyone else.

It’s even harder to really lock in on the draft before free agency even starts. What are needs right now might not be in a few weeks, or other areas where we think the Pats are set could suddenly become glaring needs with an unexpected release.

But this year I feel really good about the jump I’ve gotten on this year’s crop of prospects and already have a number of players who, regardless of need, are excellent fits for the Patriots.

The big issue I see with this year’s draft class is the depth of the defensive tackles and defensive ends. Neither are major areas of needs for the Patriots, but both are vital positions that you can really never have too much talent or depth at. If we’re still looking at the Patriots not drafting until the end of the second round, their potential pick will be extremely influenced by just how many of the DT and DEs are off the board.

And really, there’s so much talent there that if there’s a delay in the run on those players, I don’t think we can rule out taking a DT for the third-straight year, despite the needs elsewhere.

Patriots Draft Fits

The position that I’ll be most eagerly watching are the tackles. After the combine last week a number of players stood out with their athleticism and that’s just what I think the Patriots need. If I had to custom build a tackle for the Pats first pick it would be an athletic right tackle who can also play on the left side.

Jason Spriggs from Indiana is one to watch and hopefully he falls. He hit on all 10 of the Pats desired measurables per Doug Kyed of NESN. Only thing about him is that he might be destined for left tackle, and those guys go faster than those for the right side even though the difference has been slowly eroding.

An under the radar tackle is Willie Beavers of Western Michigan, who played the left side in college but has the traits to play just about anywhere on the line. Only knock for him is that he doesn’t quite have the ideal size, measuring in at 6’4″, but still weighs 324.

Another player who has jumped out at me a bit is a local kid, Boston College’s Justin Simmons. Yes, he had the best three-cone time and we know what that means to the Patriots, but I also think he’s a fascinating fit on the defense to develop in the Patrick Chung role. He has balance to play both free and strong safety, and though he’s a bit lanky he’s still a willing tackler. He also hit seven-of-ten desired measurables.

What’s most intriguing to me is his size at 6’2″. Being able to deal with bigger tight ends and slot receivers is becoming a key trait for strong safeties in the Pats system. Chung did an excellent job last year, but still struggled at times because he’s just not big enough to deal with guys who are 6’5″ all the time. Someone like Simmons would be an interesting tool to develop alongside Jordan Richards as the Pats look to the future at the position.

Combine: Gil Brandt ‘This is a draft that’s a Patriot draft’ | Patriots.com

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“There’s not really many first rounders,” Brandt told Patriots.com Friday during the league’s annual Scouting Combine. “There’s a lot of guys that are in the category of 20 to 50. You don’t have 28 (true) first rounders, so the (teams) who do their homework are going to do pretty well, because all these (players) look the same.”

Source: Combine: Gil Brandt ‘This is a draft that’s a Patriot draft’ | New England Patriots

How often are there actually 32 players worthy of a first-round selection? I’d make the case that 2012 might be one of the only years when the Pats traded up and nabbed both Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower. Is it any coincidence that those two players (along with 2013 second-rounder Jamie Collins) were the big keys to taking the porous defense of 2010 & 2011 and making them into one of the better front sevens in the NFL?

Pats don’t often get much credit for the fact that they’ve pretty much always been drafting in the 20’s for the last 15 years. The only exceptions were Jerod Mayo and Nate Solder. Otherwise they’ve maintained their dominance without getting to pick where most of the dominant players are usually selected.

You’d still love to have that first round pick back, but I think they have enough ammo to move up a bit in the second round. Big question will be when the runs on offensive and defensive tackles start.

 

Pre-Combine New England Patriots Draft Posits

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Welcome to the start of my sixth draft season here at PatsPropaganda! For those of you who are new to the site I don’t pay much attention at all to college football or the draft until the Patriots season ends. Back in 2011, I started a yearly challenge with myself to pick 50 prospects I liked for the Patriots with the hopes of getting as many picks as I could. You can see the last five Top-50 Patriots-only big boards here. I also try to only do one mock draft a week or two before the actual draft in an effort to have some accountability with my picks.

Here’s how I’ve done, still trying to break 50% on the big board:

new england patriots draft record

The process has begun yet again, but with the Pats not having a first round pick, and no selection until the end of the second round, this is going to be the hardest year yet because most of the top guys at each position are going to be gone. Still, with compensatory draft picks, the Pats will likely have these selections, more than enough to fill some holes and do some damage:

  • 2nd Rounder
  • 3rd Rounder
  • 3rd Rounder (compensatory)
  • 4th Rounder
  • 5th Rounder (compensatory)
  • 6th Rounder (from Houston in Keshawn Martin trade)
  • 6th Rounder (compensatory)
  • 7th Rounder
  • 7th Rounder (compensatory)
  • 7th Rounder (from Houston in Ryan Mallett trade)

Having dipped my toe into this year’s draft class, here are some quick hit thoughts. It’s a long process but matching up the Pats needs with the kind of players available gives you a sense of where they might be able to operate.

  • I don’t think Edge or Interior DL are huge needs but those just might be the two deepest areas of Pats’ fits. He’ll be long gone by the time the Pats pick, but Alabama DT A’Shawn Robinson might be the perfect Pats DT fit. There are quite a few undersized DTs that could fit as well. With the rotation the Pats like to run, the more diverse group of players they have the better.
  • Another player who will be long gone but would be a good standup linebacker in the Pats system is Jordan Jenkins from Georgia. A low-round option could be Theiren Cockran from Minnesota who has all the intangibles.
  • The two running backs from Arkansas are intriguing with Alex Collins getting the slight nod. I think the Pats need an early down grinder who can pick up tough yards and soften a defense. Hopefully other teams continue to devalue running backs and the Pats could have a shot at one of the better guys. Devon Johnson out of Marshall could be a mid-round fit.
  • The area I’ve really been focusing on is tackle and my early thought is that things could line up well in the late second round to get an athletic swing tackle. Taylor Decker from Ohio State has a lot of Sebastian Vollmer in him, he’s an early favorite. But there are others who will be in that range that could be a good Pats fit like Jason Spriggs from Indiana.
  • I don’t have wide receiver being as big of a need as many Pats’ pundits, but Sterling Shepard from Oklahoma is pretty much a perfect fit for the Pats system. He’s not that deep burner many want, but he can get open instantly and has the smarts to likely pick up the Pats system. Too bad he’ll likely be long gone too.
  • The tight end class is terrible and it makes me think if the Pats do cut Scott Chandler they have to address replacing him via free agency. Also, AJ Derby’s development after spending his rookie year on IR will be something to monitor though I think it might be a bit much to expect him to take the #2 TE spot, he seems more in the H-back mold.
  • Middle linebacker is a need but I am wondering what kind of player they need. Really I think Brandon Spikes is somewhat the model —  a two down fierce run stopper. Too bad Spikes is such a meatball or he might still be with the team in that role. Most of the MLBs coming out in the draft don’t quite have the size you’d like. Blake Martinez of Stanford and Joshua Perry of Ohio State are two that check some of the boxes.
  • Cornerback is another position I don’t see a huge draft need for but one they’ll probably take a player at regardless. DJ White of Georgia Tech seems like a good Pats fit, but he’s one of those tough, undersized guys that would likely be limited to the slot.

I’ll drop the initial big board in a couple weeks as free agency starts to play out and needs are met or exacerbated. There’s plenty of film to watch until then.

WEEI.com/It Is What It Is » Mel Kiper Jr.: Patriots’ biggest need is WR, could target Braxton Miller

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When it comes to the Patriots and their potential needs this offseason, there are a few positions that come to mind: offensive line, wide receiver, tight end.

Source: It Is What It Is » Mel Kiper Jr.: Patriots’ biggest need is WR, could target Braxton Miller

Wide receiver, such a fickle position for the Patriots and one that should scare us all in the draft. The fact is, with no pick before 59th overall what do needs really matter? Yes, the Pats could, and likely will, trade up in the second round, but it’s going to cost draft capital, and does anyone feel confident that they’re going to get a “step-in-and-play” receiver in the mid-second round? Is there any player at that spot that would legitimately be better than a healthy Brandon LaFell or Danny Amendola? I don’t see it, and when push comes to shove, I’m all about the trenches.

So my biggest need, and it’s a need that will sizable in 2017, is an athletic tackle. The draft is about developing players for down the road. Sure, some guys will step in and play a significant role, but outside of running back I struggle to see a starting spot that can and will make an immediate impact via the draft. Even if they dump Cannon, Vollmer’s contract is up after this year as well. The development for the next right tackle is a critical element for this team, one far more important than continuing the search for that big speedy receiver who has the rare football IQ to pick up the Pats system immediately.

Of course there could always be shocking releases this spring but those holes, for better or worse, will be filled via free agency. The Pats will go into the draft without any glaring needs to field a competitive team. Some players in some spots might not be ideal or proven, but they’ll at least have a placeholder who’d be serviceable atop each spot on the depth chart.

When we look at long term needs, there’s no question receiver is up there, but the Pats have built enough depth that they can let the board come to them and not have to trade up and take Braxton Miller with hopes that he’s going to step in and immediately take the offense to another level.