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Analysis

Report: Tom Brady signs two-year contract extension with Patriots

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Tom Brady has said he wants to play into his 40s and now with a new two-year contract extension with the New England Patriots, he has a deal in place that will take him to 42. The deal was first reported by Adam Schefter with this tweet:

The deal would last through the 2019 season, which would take Brady to a clean 20 years with the Patriots. But more importantly, Brady’s extension should lower his projected 2016 cap hit of $15 million.  Last week Jeff Howe reported the Pats hadn’t had any conversations with any of their pending free agents or extension candidates but now it seems like Brady was the priority and who can complain about that?

tom brady snow art

 

This changes the dynamic that was setting up to make 2017 a big question mark when both Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo‘s contracts were due to be up. You wondered then if that would open the door for Garoppolo to take over for Brady, but now it appears Brady isn’t going anywhere and that the Patriots feel comfortable enough with his level of play that they think he’s got at least two more elite seasons left and more likely three.

As for the fourth and final year of the deal, who knows where Brady or the Patriots will be at. Not many high end players see the final year of their deals with the Patriots, but Brady is obviously in a class by himself.

As for Garoppolo, Shefter said on WEEI that he didn’t think the Pats would trade their 2014 second-round pick. Though we haven’t seen much if any decline from Brady, it is comforting to have a knowledgeable and promising backup behind a quarterback pushing 40. Still, I think if the price was right, the Pats would have to consider moving Garoppolo, if not this season, then next, entering the final year of his deal. Or they could just hang on to him, hope he signs a significant free agent deal after 2017 and the Pats will get a compensatory pick for him.

However it plays out, this is great news that Brady’s got four more years to get that decisive fifth Super Bowl.

Two Flukey Plays In Denver

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I came across the ultimate spoiled Pats fan comment in my internet travels the other day, someone complaining that the Pats have “only won one Super Bowl in the last 11 years” and I had to laugh. How incredibly easy it is to dismiss how impossible it is to consistently win in the NFL. No, the Patriots have made that part look easy and we’ve all just come to accept that ho-hum we locked up our 13th AFC East title in 15 years and came within a couple plays of going to our third Super Bowl in five years but that’s not good enough.

This also circles the bigger point of how whatever deficiency is exhibited in the season-ender is what everyone obsesses about for the entire offseason. Oh, and that of course must also include adding a deep threat and more pass rushers. This cycle happens every year on the outside, meanwhile inside the walls of Gillette Stadium, the Patriots just keep doing what they do despite the calls to blow certain things up each and every year.

Yes, the offensive line got toasted time and again in the AFC Championship, leaving many Pats fans to think that upgrading third-string swing tackle Marcus Cannon and usual-right-tackle-playing-left-tackle Sebastian Vollmer is the answer for 2016. The main theory is to cut them both, sign a high-priced free agent to pair with Nate Solder and then they’ll be all set. Yet, I still have trouble seeing how any right tackle in league was going to shut down Von Miller in Denver, especially when not even Carolina could do it at a neutral site.

Because despite all the flaws of the 2015 Patriots that everyone loves to point out, they should’ve been headed to overtime in AFC Championship. Were they a flawed team? Well after all the injuries, sure, but despite that the season still came down to what it always comes down to–making the last play.

If Malcolm Butler doesn’t make the SB49 game-winning interception what would everyone be complaining about last offseason? That not even Revis and Browner could save the Patriots’ terrible defense that blew three Super Bowls for Tom Brady. They had no pass rush. They needed a deep threat.

The unsexy truth is that if you want to point the finger at where the 2015 Pats hurt themselves the most you have nowhere to look but two flukey plays in Denver. You never know when one play is going to change the course of your season, but that’s what happened with Harper’s Muff and Gostkowski’s extra point miss.

The first very well cost the Pats the chance to host the AFC Championship. The second cost them an overtime shot at the Super Bowl. Yes, this is oversimplifying it, and I can’t kill an undrafted rookie (who shouldn’t have been trying to field the punt) messing up on the road in the snow, or a kicker who hadn’t missed an extra point since his rookie year, but it’s hard to argue the Pats season wouldn’t have ended on different terms had those two plays gone the other way. And yes, the irony of the Pats being the ones who suggested moving the extra point back drips thick.

Chris Harper Muffed Punt Patriots Broncos

But there’s no way to hem and haw about two random plays over the course of a season and that’s football. That’s why it’s so hard not only to win, but to make the key plays in the key moments. The Patriots Super Bowl runs all featured the Pats making those clutch plays. Even the years they came up short they made plenty of those plays as well — they just didn’t make the last ones.

So everyone can worry about the offensive line, about the lack of weapons, about the lack of a pass rusher like Von Miller, but none of it really matters. The truth is that no matter who comes or goes this offseason the Patriots will once again win a ton of games next season. Winning the Super Bowl takes your three best games with plenty of clutch plays and a little luck sprinkled in. The 2016 Pats will just come down to whether or not they make the last play, but they’ll be in thick of it and go down swinging. That’s all we can ask for, even if we “only” have one Super Bowl in the last 11 years..

 

Offseason Day #1: The Patriots Plan

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It’s the first day of the offseason which of course means that everyone’s an expert about what the Patriots need to do this season (aside from just get healthy, because let’s be honest, that’s about 75 percent of it).

You have the WEAPONZZZZZ! crowd who think Alshon Jeffery and every other big name free agent wide receiver is the answer, and the ‘blow up the entire offensive line’ crowd is pretty vocal right now as well.

The important thing is to look at the overall big picture and not overreact to one loss that came almost exclusively at the hands of one of the best defenses in football having one of their best games and hitting Brady more than he was his all season.

Solder comes back and I like the offensive line core. You have two good young centers, two young rookie guards who looked promising entering their second year and then Kline should probably be the interior swing guy.

I do wonder about right tackle, because you have to think Vollmer’s best days are behind him even if he can stay at right tackle. As for Cannon I think he’s at best a backup right tackle. Both are entering their final years of their deals and will make a combined $11 million. Very possible at least one gets cut, but both seems scary, and it doesn’t seem like they’re ready to throw Cam Fleming in there any time soon.

So yes, right tackle (preferably someone who’s athletic) is a need, but it’s really one of the easier positions to find. Can they squeeze another year out of Vollmer? I’d be fine to try.

Receiver does feel like another priority but I think this is one area people are way overreacting right now. I don’t think we simply throw LaFell by the wayside because he regressed this year. Let’s remember he dealt with a foot injury all season long and some of his tweets today seem to point to that as a reason why he was less effective.

No harm in giving him a full offseason to get healthy and see if he can recapture the magic. There’s no guarantee anyone else is going to come in and “get it” like LaFell did in 2014.

And of course the “deep threat-ers” are out in force today as well, but they need to play to Brady’s strengths. Amendola could be a restructure candidate again, or could just get cut outright. Edelman will turn 30 this year. They need to add some logs to the wide receiver fire, but I’d focus as much on the smart, shifties as the big, run fasties. 

How much of a role is Keshawn Martin ready to take on? Seemed like the Denver game was a chance for him to show something and he didn’t show much. Still, they extended him so they must see some kind of potential. Best case scenario (for him) is that he replaces Amendola in the slot), but I’d kinda prefer to maybe look for some more size inside.

One free agent I really liked coming out who has been getting thrown around today is Mohammad Sanu. Yes, he’s a Rutgers guy but I think he’d be a dynamic threat the Pats could use in a number of ways.

Another area to look long and hard at is running back. The Pats had no running game against the Broncos and were completely one dimensional. Blount is a free agent and while I’d take him back I still think he’s better in a 1B closer role. Dion Lewis will be back along with James White so you have to like the receiving back depth. I mean, if Lewis was healthy the Pats would be in the Super Bowl, I have no doubt.

So that leaves a 1A back who can get those early tough yards and loosen things up. Not talking anything crazy, just like what Stevan Ridley did. That could be a draft position. Still curious about Tyler Gaffney too.

Defensively I think the main focus is extending Hightower first, maybe Collins as well. But definitely Hightower and unfortunately that will probably come as a harsh reality to Chandler Jones. I’d re-sign Tarrell Brown after he looked pretty good last summer, but with major paydays coming to the front seven there won’t be much big spending elsewhere on that side of the ball. Coleman and Johnson showed good promise and Ryan/Butler was legitimate starters.

Mayo is likely gone, but I could see him back on a vet minimum kind of deal because he’s not going to have much of a market. Remember he could get some pop back a full two years removed from the torn patellar tendon. Not holding my breath on his resurgence though, so if there’s one position to consider in the upper half of the draft on defense it’s linebacker.

Remember, to turn in the season we turned in with so many guys not only on IR, but walking wounded in almost every key spot, is so so impressive. Maybe some will see that as a cop out or excuse, but the Patriots lost more man games to injury than any other team and still came within a two-point conversion from going back to the Super Bowl. No other team could’ve done that.

With better injury luck next year it’s hard to see who will stand in the Pats way in the AFC.