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Analysis

Breaking Down the Clutch Play from Patriots’ Pass Catchers

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There’s been plenty of attention on James White, the Julian Edelman impossible shoe catch and the Dont’a Hightower strip sack that quickly opened the door for an impossible Patriots comeback in Super Bowl 51.

But what stands out to me most aside from these headliners, was how each and every Patriots weapon came through with a huge clutch play, without which, the comeback likely would’ve fallen short.

Here’s a rundown of the key receiving stats:

Passing, Rushing, & Receiving Table
Player Tgt Rec Yds TD Lng
Julian Edelman 13 5 87 0 27
James White 16 14 110 1 28
Danny Amendola 11 8 78 1 20
Malcolm Mitchell 7 6 70 0 18
Martellus Bennett 6 5 62 0 25
Chris Hogan 7 4 57 0 18
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/7/2017.

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Can the Pats Copy the Eagles Defensive Plan vs. Falcons?

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One game in my Falcons’ film study that has stuck out was their 24-15 loss to the Eagles in mid-November. The Falcons put up a season-low 303 yards of offense with just 48 yards rushing.

It’s important not to take one game, especially their worst of the season, and take it as proof-positive their offense can be easily stopped. The Patriots have had plenty of outliers over the years that were extrapolated as “The Blueprint” to beat the Patriots.

Still, there’s plenty of analyze in terms of the Eagles schemes and coverages that gave the Falcons problems.

Here’s what stood out to me and what I think the Patriots are well-equipped to reproduce.

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Report: Browns Interested in Jimmy G

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Sources say the Browns’ interest in Garoppolo is real and that they’ll try to trade for him depending on how their draft evaluations go over the next five weeks or so. If the Browns decide to draft Mitch Trubisky or Deshaun Watson in the first round, they’ll be much less likely to pursue the Patriots’ backup — but wouldn’t rule it out.

But they’ll have competition for Garoppolo that will drive up the price. Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan liked him coming out of the draft, and might pursue a deal once he formally becomes the 49ers’ head coach.

The 49ers have the No. 2 pick in the draft, and are also looking for a quarterback.

But the Browns are intrigued, sources say, and they’ll strongly consider it. The cost could be the No. 12 overall pick and more.

Source: Mary Kay Cabot/Cleveland.com

As expected, teams are going to line up to get a shot at Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, with the Cleveland Browns leading the way. The Browns have two first round picks and two second round picks, so they have the ammo that the Pats will likely require to part ways with the talented Tom Brady apprentice.

I wrote this a couple months ago, and I haven’t really changed my tune. I know Brady has looked as good as ever this season but the end can come quickly and this is one position you shouldn’t mess around with. You have a player in-house and under contract for another season that can step in and win football games.

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Tuesday Patriots Super Bowl 10 Pack

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The Super Bowl circus is in full swing with the “Opening Night” last night kicking off the festivities in Houston. It’s become so much of a production compared to the old days where media availability happened during the day and was far more informal and fun. Still, it’s always good to get a read on the Patriots during these events as we close in on Super Bowl Sunday.

Here’s a 10 pack of thoughts on the latest developments…

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Which Hoodie Should Bill Belichick Wear in Super Bowl 51?

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The time has come to make my final prognostication as to what hoodie (or non-hoodie) Bill Belichick should wear in Super Bowl 51. A quick glance at the graphic above shows what Belichick has worn in his six Super Bowls with the Patriots, with the winning four on top and the losing two on the bottom.

Sorry if the dreaded red brings back some horrible feelings. But what should really jump out at you is that twice BB has cut off the sleeves of his hoodie for a Super Bowl and those two times he lost.

This was especially depressing in Super Bowl 46 because it would be Belichick’s last time in his iconic 2003 Gray Reebok Hoodie with the sleeves cut. This was Belichick’s original hoodie that he made famous and it went out with a whimper.

In Super Bowl 36 he just had a meager windbreaker and he left the sleeves alone. We were still two years away from the first time he would cut the sleeves off and wear it in a game. In 38 it was another windbreaker, but with the sleeves pushed up, not cut. Then came 39 and the sleeves weren’t cut, but they were pegged pretty good.

So the obvious lesson here — THE HOODIE MUST HAVE SLEEVES!!

I’m also going to rule out the Hot Jacket, which is the hardest decision of the Hoodie analysis. The Hot Jacket, which premiered in 2013, has been Belichick’s favorite go-to in recent seasons, going 24-8 overall, including the 2013 win over the Falcons. However he also wore the Hot Jacket in the 2013 AFCCG and the first half of the 2015 AFCCG. So the Hot Jacket is DEFINITELY OUT.

The answer is obvious — the 2016 Blue Hoodie. Belichick is 3-0 in it this season, including both playoff wins so far. He’s also been in blue for three of the four Lombardi-winning games.

The 2016 Blue Hoodie is the perfect one from Belichick to write another huge chapter of his legacy in. Let’s hope he’s listening.

 

One Stat to Define Super Bowl 51 Matchup

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We’re still over a week away from Super Bowl 51 and the analysis of the matchup between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons has been pouring in. This is what I live for — one opponent to focus on for an extended period of time.

In all my research into how the teams match up there’s one stat that really stick out like a Brian Baldinger Finger and that is Yards After Catch. It’s quite simple really:

  • Falcons Offense: 2nd in YAC (148.9 yards-per-game) vs. Patriots Defense: 1st in Preventing YAC (91.4 yards-per-game)
  • Pariots Offense: 3rd in YAC (145.9 yards-per-game) vs. Falcons Defense: 32nd in Preventing YAC (132.9 yards-per-game)

Usually, stats don’t really tell the whole story when presented without context. Things like yardage and sacks, stats that many use as a crutch to support their arguments are incredibly dependent on how particular games unfold. Nobody knows this better than Patriots fans, who’ve seen plenty of mush rush discipline and soft zones when they have a big lead. Those kind of situational stats don’t really tell us a lot about how good a team really is.

But Yards-After-Catch are pretty good indicators of two things — how much an offense leans on their receivers to make plays on short throws and how well defenses get into position and tackle. Those are strong tells of how the game will be fought and in the case of YAC, the stats firmly favor the Patriots.

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A Look Back at How Pats Defended Falcons in 2013

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The Pats haven’t seen the Falcons since Sunday Night Football in Week Four of 2013. Here were my post-game takeaways back when I was writing for Bleacher Report.

Schematically, at least for the Falcons’ defense, there’s isn’t a ton to take away. This is even more true when you consider the Pats leading receiver was Kenbrell Thompkins with six catches, 127 yards and a touchdown. Julian Edelman wasn’t far behind seven catches for 118 yards.

The Pats rolled Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden as their running backs, none of whom are anywhere close to the receiving threats Dion Lewis and James White are. The Falcons’ defensive coordinator was Mike Nolan back then, so the Seattle-esque defensive scheme had not been installed.

However, Matt Ryan and Julio Jones were still the straws stirring the drink back then so it’s worth taking a look at how the Pats defended them.

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