Bill Barnwell on the NFL playoffs – Grantland

Really good preview from Bill Barnwell. It’s rare that national guys know the Patriots as well as Barnwell clearly does (is he a Pats fan?). Below he hits on what I’ve been saying about this Patriots defense for two years now…

Belichick might be the greatest defensive mind of his generation, but even he needs a few players to piece together some sort of competent defense. New England’s defense has fallen apart as the season has gone along, and there’s little reason to think it will get better. The Patriots ranked 10th in defensive DVOA during the first half of the season, but after their Week 10 bye, they had the league’s fifth-worst defensive DVOA. Their run defense was already bad and stayed that way, but their pass defense really fell off, dropping from eighth in the first half to 24th in the second half. The reasons why are staring you in the face within that table above, but one of the manifestations of this subpar defense was a lack of turnovers. The Patriots forced a takeaway in each of their games before the bye, eventually accruing 19 in nine games, an average of 2.1 per contest. After the bye, they struggled to force turnovers at the same rate. Although they finished with 10 in seven contests, that included two games with four takeaways each against the Broncos and Ravens. They had three games without forcing a single turnover, games that resulted in a loss to Carolina, a miraculous comeback victory over Cleveland, and a Week 17 win over Buffalo. The Patriots finished 13th in takeaway rate after finishing in the top three each of the last three seasons. The Patriots were 24th in forcing three-and-outs and were a league-average defense in the red zone; if they don’t force takeaways, they struggle to get off the field.