Sam Hollister

Breaking Down Patriots Run Game Struggles vs. Jags

January 24, 2018 by Sam Hollister

In a thrilling comeback victory against the Jaguars, the Patriots advanced to their eight Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era, and are one win away from winning three out of four Super Bowls for a second time in this century alone. The Patriots were forced to rely on Brady’s fourth quarter heroics in a matchup that featured the Jaguars ferocious front seven completely shut down the Patriots run game. Dion Lewis, after averaging 142.3 yards from scrimmage in his past three games, was held to just 34 yards on the ground and 32 through the air. If you take away his 18 yard first down run that sealed the win, Lewis ran for just 16 yards on eight carries (2.0 YPC), a far cry from his season average of 5.0 YPC, which was second in the NFL among running backs.

Almost all of the offense had to come through Brady and the passing game, and while they delivered, the Patriots will need a better effort on the ground 11 days from now against Philadelphia. An interesting pattern that I discovered is that, when the Patriots (not including “runs” by Brady and Hoyer) rushed for 4.4 or more yards per carry in a game, the Patriots were 9-0 this season (including playoffs), and had an average point differential of +15.1 in those games. However, in the nine games when they rushed for less than 4.4 yards per carry, the Patriots were 6-3, and had an average point differential of +5.7. Of course, if there is one quarterback that can overcome a lack of success on the ground, it’s Tom Brady, as he is the only quarterback in NFL history to have a winning record in games in which he is forced to throw 50+ times (19-9, a .667 winning percentage).

An In-Depth Look at Blake Bortles and the Jaguars Offense

January 17, 2018 by Sam Hollister

The Patriots rolled over the Titans Saturday night to the tune of a 35-14 blowout that clinched a spot in the franchises’ seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game (is that good?). Up next are the surprising Jaguars, who toppled the Steelers in exciting fashion last Sunday, hanging 45 points on Pittsburgh’s defense. However, I do not think that score should truly worry Patriots fans, as Blake Bortles is still Blake Bortles and Bill Belichick is still Bill Belichick. Sure, Bortles played well against Pittsburgh, but I think he will need to play almost perfect in order to come into Foxborough and dethrone the champs.

Sure, Bortles did have a good day (especially for Blake Bortles standards), but if you look closer at the numbers, it is easy to see why the Patriots should be able to lock down Bortles come Sunday. For starters, Bortles only completed 10 passes belong the line of scrimmage. The Jags, rightfully so, simplified their game plan to the max against Pittsburgh, and expect them to use the same formula in Foxboro this Sunday, which should be a positive for New England.

Against Pittsburgh, Bortles was not sacked, and was only pressured on eight of his 28 drop-backs, just 28% of the time he dropped back. When he was kept clean, Bortles had a passer rating of 115.5, but when pressure was applied, his passer rating dropped to an abysmal 39.6.

Dion Lewis: Top Five Running Back?

January 3, 2018 by Sam Hollister

The Patriots finished off the regular season in rather lackluster fashion on Sunday, defeating the Jets 26-6 and clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the process. Missing James White, Rex Burkhead, and Mike Gillislee, the Patriots had to lean heavily on Dion Lewis to carry the load, and he delivered for the second straight week, racking up 133 yards from scrimmage and finding the end zone twice. Lewis has proven he can be a catalyst for this Patriots offense during the rare times it has stalled, and he should be a major factor in the coming playoffs.

Once a fifth-round pick out of Pitt, the 5’8” Lewis has put the NFL on notice this season. Lewis finished as Pro Football Focus’s third ranked running back, and coming into Week 17, Lewis was fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.4) and 5th in forced missed tackles on the ground (38). While he does rank just 14th in rushing yards in the NFL, every running back ahead of him had at least 32 more attempts, and 12 of them had at least 50 more attempts.

Because of his lack of volume, Lewis’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but when you look closer, it is easy to see why he deserves to be mentioned along with the best running backs in the NFL. He led the NFL in rushing yards in the second half of the season, and was second in all-purpose yards during that span. Lewis also had the most carries out of all running backs without recording a fumble. He finished second among all running backs in yards per carry with a 5.0 average, meaning he was one of just two backs that averaged over five yards per carry this season (the other being rookie sensation Alvin Kamara). Using Lewis’s yards per carry average, if he had been given 265 carries this year (which would have only been roughly 16 carries per game), Lewis would have put up more yards than the NFL’s rushing leader, Kareem Hunt, on seven less carries than Hunt had.

Pats Sacks Up Despite Uneven Recent Defensive Performance

December 27, 2017 by Sam Hollister

The Patriots rode a dominant second half to their 12th win of the year against the Bills on Sunday, clinching a first round bye in the process and all but insuring that the AFC playoffs will come through Foxborough. While Dion Lewis stole most of the headlines after racking up 196 all-purpose yards, the Patriots front seven deserves a lot of credit for shutting down Buffalo in critical moments, most notably with Marquis Flowers’ takedown of Tyrod Taylor in the red zone on 4th down and Malcolm Brown’s 15 yard sack on the first play of Buffalo’s drive after the Pats had tied it at 16.

In total, the Patriots racked up six sacks, hit Taylor on four other occasions, and were consistently in Buffalo’s backfield. In fact, in the past five games, the Patriots have averaged 4.2 sacks per game, a rate that would put them above the NFL’s overall sack leaders, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have put up 3.5 sacks per game on average. Sure, the Jaguars have done this over the course of 15 games, and the Patriots sample size is just five games, but this still shows just how well the Patriots have been playing of late.

Scouting Report: Pittsburgh Steelers

December 13, 2017 by Sam Hollister

Fresh off being completely dominated in Miami against the Dolphins (what a weird sentence that is), the New England Patriots now turn their sights to their biggest test of the year: the Pittsburgh Steelers. The winner of Sunday’s game will almost assuredly have home field for the inevitable title game between these two teams (knock on wood). While the Steelers do boast the best record in the AFC, four out of their last five games have been decided by game-winning field goals in the final minute, coming against the 3-10 Colts, the 7-6 Rodgers-less Packers, the 5-8 Bengals, and the 7-6 Ravens. This team is good, for sure, but I don’t think they are nearly as good as their record and their stats suggests.

The Steelers offense has put up the 4th most yards in football and 2nd most pass yards in the NFL, just behind the Patriots in both stats. They possess the NFL’s rushing yards leader in Leveon Bell, but strangely rank just 23rd in the league in total rushing yards (Bell has accounted for 85% of their rushing yards). Bell leads the league in rushing because of volume, not efficiency; he is first in the NFL in attempts with 283 (shoutout Atlanta), but is just 21st in yards per carry (of rushers with at least 100 attempts). The Patriots locked down the Steelers daunting running game in the AFC Championship Game, but, as Steeler fans are ever so quick to mention, Bell played just 11 snaps in that game, and the now-retired DeAngelo Williams was tasked with leading the Steelers rushing attack, which only gained 54 yards on 20 carries, good for just 2.7 yards per carry.

The Patriots Defense is Pretty Damn Good After All

November 22, 2017 by Sam Hollister

The Patriots won their sixth straight game on Sunday in Mexico City, improving to 8-2 thanks to a complete domination of the Raiders. While the offense has been putting up gaudy numbers of late, and really for the entire season, more attention needs to be paid to the marked shift in the Patriots defensive effort in the past few weeks.

Torn apart by anyone and everyone in their first four games, the Patriots defense looked like the worst defense in football, and a potential roadblock to the team’s Super Bowl aspirations. In those first four games, the Patriots defense allowed 32 points per game and 456.8 yards per game, both figures that would rank dead last in the NFL today. In fact, they were so bad that, in this millennium, only the 0-16 Detroit Lions have finished a season allowing more points per game than the Patriots did during the first four games, and no team has allowed more yards per game in a single season in the 21st century. The Patriots defense was that bad during the first four weeks, but since that point, we have seen a vast alteration in performance from the much-maligned unit.

Since Week 4, the Patriots defense has allowed 374.8 yards per game, which still isn’t all that good (it would rank them 27th in the NFL this year), but is a major improvement from the hideous effort of the first four weeks. When only looking at the past four games, the Patriots have allowed 343.8 yards per game, which would place them 19th in the league. Also in the past four games, the Patriots have allowed only allowed 217.7 passing yards per game, 129 yards down from their average in Weeks 1-4. This leap is absurd, especially when considering the fact that defensive signal-caller Dont’a Hightower was lost for the season after Week 7, Stephon Gilmore missed Weeks 6-8, and Eric Rowe hasn’t played since Week 5.

The Offensive Line’s Stellar Play Against Von and the Broncos

November 14, 2017 by Sam Hollister

The Patriots completely dominated the Broncos on Sunday night to the tune of a 41-16 drubbing that essentially eliminated Denver from playoff contention after just nine weeks (!). Throughout the week, heavy emphasis was placed on Brady’s return to Mile High Stadium, his personal “House of Horrors”, a stadium in which he is just 3-7 lifetime. However, Brady shredded the Broncos vaunted defense, throwing for 266 yards and three touchdowns in the blowout, thanks in large part to the play of his offensive line, who had another stellar game overall on Sunday night.

Brady was sacked just once against the Broncos, a play in which James White could not pick up the blitzing Justin Simmons, and Brady was only three times all night, a remarkable achievement when playing against one of the best pass-rushers in recent memory without your starting right tackle. Brady was hit on just 11.4% of his drop backs, which is a great rate when considering the percentage Brady has been hit in previous games in Denver.