Mike Dussault

Time to Worry About the Patriots Injuries?

December 1, 2016 by Mike Dussault

Rob Gronkowski Julian Edelman

By now you’re probably sick of reading it here on the blog because I’ve been beating it like a drum all season — all that really matters for the Patriots are injuries. We can do countless hours of film study or discuss why Belichick decided to trade most of his defense away or search for a weakness on offense, but at the end of the season if the Pats are healthy, they’re probably going to the Super Bowl.

Of course, some Pats matter more than others, no offense to anyone, and the top of that list is Tom Brady, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski which is why Wednesday’s injury report made me barf a little bit. Add in Martellus Bennett and their two best special teamers, and I’m wondering if we should just roll out the JV offense against the Rams and give those key guys a week of rest before the upcoming AFC showdowns with Baltimore and Denver.

screen-shot-2016-11-30-at-5-01-15-pm

Now Brady, obviously the most important, isn’t that concerning. His radio appearance on Monday was re-assuring. And I’m pretty sure you’d have to remove a limb to keep him out of a game.

But Edelman’s been dealing with that foot injury for well over a year now, not to mention multiple surgeries. Then you add in this…

Patriots vs. Jets Film Review: Defense Edition

November 30, 2016 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots defense made three big plays against the Jets and it was enough to set the stage for another Tom Brady comeback and then close it out. Overall the Patriots leaned heavily on their zone coverage in this one, especially in the second half, with a focus on putting six defenders in the Jets primary target areas.

It worked because of the brilliant play against the run that made the Jets one-dimensional and heavily reliant on check downs. They had their breakdowns but it worked well enough to win and sparked the team out of their takeaway funk.

Here’s what stood out on the film review of the defense…

— Right off the bat it was apparent that Brown and Branch came to play. Both had maybe their best games in this one, especially against the run, where they were unmovable. Brown has really good low center of gravity and he’s a problem for any two blockers to move off the spot. Meanwhile, when left one-on-one Branch manhandles fools.

— Closely monitoring zone vs. man for this review, and on the first drive they played zone just once, one the first third down which was converted. On the second third down they went to man and good coverage, including a pretty good interior rush by Flowers that drew a hold, didn’t leave Fitz much to work with.

— Elandon Roberts has had his playing time reduced recently, but showed more great anticipation on the first play of the second drive, making the tackle for loss. He’d been quiet the last couple games but it was good to see that kind of play out of him.

roberts

Patriots Tuesday Ten Pack

November 29, 2016 by Mike Dussault

tom brady bill belichick

It’s hard to believe we’re closing in on the final quarter of the 2016 regular season. Football is getting cold and meaningful and before long we’ll be gearing up for another playoff run. As I wrote in the Posits yesterday, we’re getting so close to the end of the line without any major injuries it has me even more nervous.

Let’s hope the good health continues. We all know season-ending injuries in December are the ultimate season-changers. There’s little time to adjust so you have to redefine yourself on the fly in critical games. Not preferable.

Otherwise, it’s hard not to feel pretty good about the 2016 Patriots right now. They’re a bit banged up, have their crappy defensive possessions and Gostkowski’s still missing a kick almost every game, but compared to the rest of the league, the Pats have to be the Super Bowl favorites, even with their messy edges.

Here’s a ten pack of thoughts after letting the win over the Jets marinate, along with taking stock of the rest of the league.

1. From 2010-2015 the Patriots were 6-9 in games that they didn’t force a turnover. This year they’re 4-2, which speaks to the lack of turnovers this year, but also their ability to win in spite of it. I wonder if this will pay dividends down the road. From 2010-2013 the Pats failed to force a turnover in four-straight season-enders. They got one against the Broncos in 2015, but that wasn’t enough. Obviously things are way easier when they do get takeaways, but winning without them at this rate is pretty unique to this defense. Not feeling like they have to rely on them could be a positive spark.

2. The Raiders, Chiefs and Broncos should all beat up on each other (and hopefully we beat up on the Broncos), so I think the odds must be good for the Pats to secure the top seed in the AFC as long as there isn’t an injury-induced meltdown in December like there was last season. The better offenses like the Raiders, Chiefs and Steelers seem at least capable of pulling off a playoff upset in Foxboro, but let’s face it, the Pats will be firm favorites against anyone in the AFC as long as the game is at home.

Pats Posits: Toughness and Resiliency

November 28, 2016 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots survived the Jets like they often do, coming up with three big defensive plays and a game-winning touchdown drive in a 22-17 victory that moved Tom Brady into a first place tie with Peyton Manning with 200 all-time wins.

The defense that hadn’t forced a turnover in three games came through with a forced fumble from Malcolm Butler, a blocked field goal attempt by Alan Branch and a game-clinching strip sack by Chris Long.

The offense turned in a gritty performance, with Brady still hobbling with a knee injury and losing Rob Gronkowski in the first half to a back injury. The final come-from-behind touchdown drive took eight plays and 83 yards and including a fourth-down conversion that went to James White.

Vintage Brady, with passes to Edelman (24 yards), Lewis (16 yards) and Hogan (25 yards). It once again illustrates why the Patriots are always so hard to beat — they never quit and are always at their best with the game on the line.

The Jets couldn’t make the last play to seal the game and the Patriots did.

The Pats are now 9-2 and remain tied for the top seed in the conference with a two-game lead in the division.

More on the win, with only Rams standing between Brady and becoming the winningest QB of all time in then Posits…

Patriots Gameplan: Week 12 at New York Jets

November 25, 2016 by Mike Dussault

This year’s first Patriots-Jets game comes late in the season and with the Jets sitting at the bottom of the AFC East it’s certainly lacking some of the usual flash that this rivalry has. Despite the Jets down season, expect this one to be a battle down to the end. That’s pretty much how they always go, even when the Pats are en route to the top seed in the AFC and the Jets are busting out their golf clubs.

Three of the last eight matchups between these two have gone to overtime, including last year’s second-to-last game of the season which saw the Jets win 26-20. Overall the Patriots have won three of the last five games against the Jets by a total margin of 10 points.

No matter which Jets are on IR, or how bad Ryan Fitzpatrick has been or how much Revis has declined, the Patriots better be ready to go.

Here’s the gameplan to get it done.

Pats-Jets Q&A with Turn on the Jets

November 24, 2016 by Mike Dussault

Happy Thanksgiving! In the spirit of the day I’ve joined forces with a rival blogger once again to get some intel on the enemy!

It may be hard to believe but one of my favorite football bloggers out there is Joe Caporoso who runs TurnontheJets.com. Joe writes his site the same way I try to write mine, with level-headed and insightful analysis, so over the years we’ve enjoyed trading emails talking football. No, it’s not just a “you suck. no, you suck” marathon, and hopefully you can glean some insight into the game this weekend from someone who follows the Jets as closely as yours truly follows the Pats.

Here’s our back-and-forth for this weekend!

MD: What’s gone wrong with the Jets this year? Even I am shocked (and yes, a bit dismayed) that they’ve fallen apart and now I’m seeing calls for Bowles to be fired. How did it come to this so quickly?

JC: To start, they have the worst quarterback in the NFL by a decent sized margin. It is hard to appreciate just how bad Ryan Fitzpatrick has been without watching him week to week but it has been ugly. The Jets are basically starting every game with an anchor tied to their foot at the bottom of a lake with him under center. Outside of that, they have had severe regression in key areas like redzone efficiency and turnover margin coupled with player regression from Darrelle Revis, Calvin Pryor, Brandon Marshall and Marcus Gilchrist among others. So basically, everything is broken. Bowles is becoming the primary scapegoat because he’s been bad this year but few people want to dig deeper into the larger problems with this roster.

How Bend-Don’t-Break-y is this Patriots Defense?

November 23, 2016 by Mike Dussault

One thing I’ve learned over the years of studying Bill Belichick’s defense is that as long as they don’t give up big plays, tackle well and get red zone stops, he’s satisfied.

It’s never an aggressive, send-the-house blitzing style. It’s controlled and fundamentally solid. And usually it works. But that doesn’t mean it’s not frustrating to watch.

We call it the “Bend-Don’t-Break” and it’s become the annoying mantra of a Patriots defense that often struggles to get off the field with consistency. By tracking yards-per-drive and plays-per-drive we get a sense of how much they bend. By tracking points-per-drive and turnovers-per-drive (along with red zone and third down), we get a sense of how much they break.

So how does 2016 stack up with the previous B-D-B defenses? Let’s take a look at the long-term stats.