Two sides of thought have emerged this week in breaking down the Patriots-Ravens playoff game. The first is the usual trolly Boston mediot take that the Ravens have the Patriots number and that simply, the Pats are afraid of them.
Then there’s what those who are paying attention think – that those Ravens teams of 2009-2012 are gone, and while they are still a solid team who will fight hard, the Patriots deserve to be favored and are the better team at least on paper. I am not sure we could say that from 2009-2012, when the Ravens simply had more depth and talent. Not anymore though.
All that talk doesn’t really interest me anyway, and honestly, this week the Boston mediot take is probably best to help lock the Patriots in even more, as maddening as it is to listen to (if you’re one to actually listen to it).
I went back and took a look at last year’s game in which the Pats got 4 turnovers from the Ravens and rolled to a dominant 41-7 win. I could spin it that the Pats effectively beat the Ravens with a shadow team of who they are now, or that the Ravens just can’t stop the Patriots without Ed Reed or Ray Lewis, but that’s a homer take not even I can really believe.
The Patriots are better now, but the Ravens are better than that performance as well. This will be a good game, but I believe the Pats have the pieces to really exploit the Ravens’ weaknesses.
The Patriots offensive gameplan seemed focused early on attacking the edges of the Ravens defense with Blount, running right at Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil. Blount didn’t run wild, but he had enough success to keep those pass rushers from teeing off on passing downs.
The passing game was essentially Julian Edelman and Julian Edelman. The Ravens tried a number of different guys covering him but no one had much success. Jimmy Smith racked up two penalties trying to cover Edelman.
Edelman finished with 7 catches for 77 yards but his impact was greater than those stats indicate.
Once the defense was loosed up a bit the Patriots started using Ridley up the middle and had okay success. Blount and Ridley combined for 130 yards.
Blount should once again get a similar role in the attack this time around, but will Jonas Gray take over Ridley’s up-the-gut carries? He must hold on to the ball if so.
Defensively the Patriots played a lot of Cover-2 Man, which makes a lot of sense. It gives over the top protection, but also utilizes the cornerback’s strength at the line of scrimmage.
However, the Pats were in sub defense for all but six snaps, which puts a heavy emphasis on stopping the staple of the Ravens offense – zone runs – with just six in the box.
There might not be a bigger key this weekend than doing that again, however you’d think the Pats are better prepared now with Wilfork and Branch in the mix to go with Jones and Siliga (who played almost every snap in last year’s matchup).
Cover-2 Man will also put a focus on Patrick Chung this week. Steve Gregory was probably a little better in deep coverage than Chung, but if the Pats go Cover-2 Man heavy again this time, we could see more of Duron Harmon on the back end than Chung.
We also saw more Brandon Spikes than Jamie Collins last year, but a similar amount of showing presnap A-gap pressure whether they brought it or not. Collins and Hightower are a lot better at their blitzing or bailing on the A gaps this year, a true staple of the Pats defense. They could play a huge role this weekend, because getting pressure in Flacco’s face is vital.
The Patriots have seen plenty of Gary Kubiak’s zone run offense in recent years while he was with the Texans. They know what it takes to stop it.
There are no secrets with his Ravens incarnation of offense – zone runs and play action deep shots are what it’s all about. But with a deep secondary and a number of front seven players, all who can blitz or drop, the Pats have the pieces they did not in 2009-2012.
But perhaps what it boils down to most is simply turnovers. In the 2009-2012 playoff games the Ravens had just 3 turnovers to the Patriots’ 10.