Archives for December 2019

Football betting took an unexpected turn on Sunday night as the New England Patriots lost to the Miami Dolphins and fell out of the second seed in the AFC. That means New England will have to play the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card round instead of getting an expected week of rest that came with the bye.

This will be the first time New England has played in the Wild Card round since 2009 and just the fourth time since Bill Belichick took over in 2000. In 2005 they’d beat the Jaguars on Wild Card weekend but bow out in the Divisional Round against the Broncos. In 2006, they’d beat the Jets and Chargers, but lose in the Conference Championship to the Colts. Finally, in 2009 the Patriots would bow out immediately in the Wild Card game to the Ravens.

The history does not bode well for the Patriots Super Bowl chances, and a matchup against a former Patriot player Mike Vrabel and his collection of other former Patriot coaches and players appears to be a tough one.

The Titans are have a talented offense and a defense that knows how to play the Patriots offense. Following the Dolphins lead, the Titans are sure to take many gameplan elements that made Miami successful in the season finale.

New England will need their best team effort of the season. With the bye on the line their defense let them down after being the primary strength all season long. The one silver lining is that the Patriots should play angry and with something to prove.

While NFL Betting odds might have the Patriots outside their usual spot as Super Bow favorites, the team has had another outstanding season and is on the cusp of getting a bye for the 10th-straight season.

Here are the individuals that have stood out most this season:

Offensive Player of the Year – Julian Edelman

It’s hard to imagine where the Patriots offense would be if not for Edelman toughing out numerous injuries to pick up 97 catches on the season. He needs just nine more catches to break his career high. In a season filled with offensive injuries and turnover, the one constant has been Edelman, who has delivered big plays and clutch catches again and again.

Defensive Player of the Year – Kyle Van Noy

Van Noy continued to build off his breakout 2018 season and cemented his place as one of the key defenders on the Patriots stacked defense. Playing primarily off the left defensive edge, Van Noy is strong and athletic in setting the edge but also has an array of athletic pass rush moves that have him leading the team with 6.5 sacks.

Rookie of the Year – Jake Bailey

Bailey has been arguably the best punter in the league as a rookie, setting a team record for punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard-line. Add in that he’s handled kickoffs since Stephen Gostkowski was lost and Bailey is contributing in multiple ways. In a year when the offense has been inconsistent, Bailey’s punting has helped immensely with field position and has translated into real points on the scoreboard.

Most Valuable Player – Stephon Gilmore

Gilmore has been the best cornerback in the league this year, currently tied for the league lead in interceptions and taking on the top opposing target every week. Gilmore has ascended to the point where he can match up with the best receivers in the game and remove them from being a factor. His effect on the defense has had a trickle-down effect on the pass rush as well, as the Patriots put together perhaps their best defensive season in history. That’s in large part due to a shutdown corner like Gilmore how makes everything easier on everyone else.

Patriots betting odds are trending upward as the team closes in on a second-round bye in the AFC by locking up the second seed. Having lost to the other three division leaders in the conference might detract from the Patriots chances at their fourth Super Bowl title in six seasons, but you can never rule Tom Brady and Bill Belichick out.

How would the Patriots stack up against the AFC competition? Let’s rank the potential opponents.

5. Bills: The Patriots should’ve beaten the Bills more handily if not for a handful of game-changing plays. Having seen Buffalo already twice this season the Pats would have a good understanding and familiarity how to beat them. Josh Allen would have to play the game of his life.

4. Titans: Mike Vrabel’s team beat the Pats last year and any team with a big powerful back like Derek Henry could be a threat to take the vaunted Patriots defense off their game. They’ve been able to play solid football with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, but losers of two straight, they need to turn things around or risk falling out of the playoffs in the final weekend.

3. Houston: The Texans finally knocked off the Pats this season but the Patriots would still be favorites if hosting a rematch, this time at Gillette Stadium. The Texans have the weaponry to attack the Patriots and the defense to give them problems but New England would give them a better game the second time around, especially if Will Fuller is out.

2. Kansas City: The Patriots also lost to the Chiefs but held their vaunted offense to just a field goal in the second half, giving them hope that they could lock in on what Patrick Mahomes does so well. New England has won the last two playoff matchups against Kansas City and would host them this year instead of having travel on the road like 2018. It would be a tough game that went down to the wire but the Pats have had the Chiefs number in the meaningful games.

1 Baltimore: The Ravens throttled the Patriots once already this season just as they have done to most of the league. Could the Patriots find a way to do what no one has done this year and slow down Lamar Jackson? If anyone can put the gameplan together to do it, it would be Bill Belichick. Forcing Jackson into mistakes would be the key.

Despite an uneven offensive season, the Patriots odds of winning the Super Bowl at 12-3 are still very good and this weekend’s battle against the Miami Dolphins will determine how difficult their road in the playoffs will be.

Beat the four-win Dolphins and the Patriots will get a week off and await the highest remaining seed on Divisional Weekend. But a loss and a Chiefs win would put the Patriots in action next weekend in the Wild Card round. That’s a huge difference, especially for a team that is as banged up as the Patriots are.

Most likely the Patriots should beat Miami and then expect to see a rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs, a team the Patriots lost to in New England just a few weeks ago. Despite their record this year, the Patriots have struggled to beat the iron of the AFC, losing to Baltimore and Houston along with Kansas City.

Could the Patriots get revenge on those teams in the playoffs? New England’s second-half performance against the Chiefs is a reason for hope the Patriots could knock off Patrick Mahomes. Despite Kansas City’s recent success, the Patriots have still beaten them in two playoff games including last year’s overtime thriller.

But the Patriots will have to travel back to Baltimore if both teams advance and beating the Ravens at home is a challenge that might even surpass last year’s AFC Championship, where the Patriots went into Kansas City and won their third AFC Championship on the road and first since the 2004 season.

The Patriots aren’t the slam dunk they usually have been in the past, but they’re still good enough to make some noise in the playoffs. They’ll be a tough out for whoever they play but getting the playoff bye this weekend is of utmost importance.