Tom Brady’s Most Clutch Third-Down Receivers

Yesterday, Phil Perry’s excellent series of Great Patriots Debates continued by pitting Deion Branch against Danny Amendola. After putting some thought into it, I had to stick with Branch by a hair. It was still like choosing between my kids.

Essentially, Branch was THE guy in 2003 and 2004 and he delivered in the biggest spots just like Amendola did in a more reserve role. Yes, Amendola probably had more “holy shit” moments and he was everything getting to Super Bowl 52.

But we can’t forget Branch was every bit as clutch without any big names, except 2004’s Corey Dillon, around him. Amendola had Julian Edelman and/or Rob Gronkowski for most of his five seasons.

The debate got me wondering, who are Tom Brady‘s most clutch receivers? Is there a stat to find out? Let’s jump in.

Third down seemed like the perfect place to start. It’s the money down where seasons are made or broken. First I just took a look at catches on third down in all games, including playoffs, since 2001.

Wes Welker – 162 catches, 65.3% catch rate
Julian Edelman – 157 catches, 68% catch rate
Rob Gronkowski – 146 catches, 62.7% catch rate
Kevin Faulk – 120 catches, 74.5% catch rate
Deion Branch – 120 catches, 57.7% catch rate
Troy Brown – 92 catches, 58.2% catch rate
Danny Amendola – 91 catches, 66.4% catch rate

All pretty predictable, as Edelman looks ready to take the first spot overall this season.

But let’s get even more clutch. I condensed things to only the final four games of the regular season and playoffs, in the second half. This is when your season is decided and here’s who came through the most:

	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece
Player	Rec ▼	Ctch%	Yds	TD	1D
Wes Welker	23	74.2%	258	2	20
Julian Edelman	20	66.7%	276	2	15
Kevin Faulk	12	75.0%	103	0	7
Rob Gronkowski	11	52.4%	151	3	9
Deion Branch	11	73.3%	138	1	10
Troy Brown	11	52.4%	99	1	7
James White	9	81.8%	123	0	4
Danny Amendola	5	62.5%	36	0	1
Randy Moss	4	28.6%	119	2	4

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/16/2019.

When we drop down to just the playoffs it becomes clear why the Patriots lost two Super Bowls before they won three more.

	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece
Player	Tgt	Rec ▼	Ctch%	Yds	TD	1D
Julian Edelman	20	13	65.0%	226	1	13
Kevin Faulk	11	11	100.0%	93	1	8
Rob Gronkowski	16	9	56.3%	139	1	9
Deion Branch	12	8	66.7%	102	0	8
Danny Amendola	13	8	61.5%	89	0	7
James White	9	6	66.7%	38	1	2
David Givens	8	5	62.5%	55	1	5
Troy Brown	10	5	50.0%	45	0	3
Aaron Hernandez	8	5	62.5%	37	0	4

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/16/2019.

Welker falls to 15th, with three catches on seven targets. Randy Moss is 18th with two catches on three targets. I know they didn’t have as many playoff games as Edelman or Gronk, but it’s pretty glaring.

Most Clutch

The volume of Julian Edelman’s production on third down in the second half of playoff games is unreal, but Kevin Faulk’s 100 percent catch rate (11-for-11) is almost as eye-popping. Across the board, Faulk caught just about everything thrown at him. He might’ve come up short once or twice but he always caught it.

Amendola surges into the top-5 but again, it’s not enough to surpass Branch, but his rise when it was all on the line just shows how valuable Amendola was. We weren’t wrong to think he was almost as clutch as Branch.

Edelman and Gronk are Patriots’ legends, but this was a nice reminder of how they’re standing on the shoulders of guys like Branch and Faulk.