The Patriots offense has settled into a pretty good, balanced groove. Their top four receivers all have similar target numbers and their running backs can do a variety of things that keep defenses off balance. It’s a new evolution for Tom Brady‘s offense and while there are still growing pains, it was largely effective, especially in the middle of the field.
The problem, as has been well noted this week, is in the red zone. This season the Pats rank 18th overall in red zone offense, a significant departure from their ranking the past three years, 2014: 5th, 2015: 4th, 2016: 10th. Really, if you’re looking for one stat that could sum what the Pats need to improve, it’s in the red zone. This is a bit of a surprise because you’d think the problem without Julian Edelman would be on third down, however the Pats have seen little dip there.
Let’s take a look at a few plays from the Chargers game that show us what the 2017 edition of the offense is.
RB Underneath
Something we saw quite a bit of was the receivers all running deep, clearing out the underneath routes for the running backs. Here’s a good example of how the Pats can be more effective as they get toward the red zone.
Hogan, Gronk and Amendola are all going down the field, Cooks stops at the sticks, but there’s so much attention on the deep stuff that Burkhead is wide open underneath and easily picks up another first down. This kind of effectiveness on the early downs is another huge key to not stalling in the red zone. Many of the drives that ended in field goals were because the third downs were long yardage, set up by bad plays on first and second down.
3rd and 10 to Hogan
This is the kind of play the Pats struggle most with, third-and-long, and why they need Chris Hogan so much. This is a pretty key moment in the game, with the Pats leading 18-7 late in the third quarter. This is where you put games away.
The coverage is good, and the Pats are in the Pony package with two running backs to help on the edges. White stays in, Burkhead releases to the flat but has a coverage linebacker waiting for him. Hogan gets good separation and Brady is dead on with a big boy throw, an out 20 yards down the field.
These are the hardest plays to make and the kind that they don’t make enough of, especially in the red zone.
3rd 6, 4th quarter, Incomplete
Here’s a good example of when things go wrong for the Pats offense. It’s third down in the fourth quarter, it’s a five-point game. The Pats are knocking on Chargers’ territory but can’t convert and seal the game.
The Chargers blitz which forces the Pats to keep James White in to block. This is effective because the Pats had been killing them with underneath passes. Gronk, Hogan and Cooks are all running down the field, essentially leaving just Danny Amendola as a possible outlet. The protection is good enough for that target only.
These are the kind of plays where they miss Edelman the most. It wasn’t a red zone play, but this kind of sums up when the Pats’ offense is at a disadvantage. If their running backs are forced to stay in it really hurts, that’s why the Pony package can be effective as it gives them two options to send out into pass routes.