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Patriots Gamplan: Week 3 at Detroit Lions

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It’s been a long week in Patriots Nation. The team got blasted on the field. Another book came out and drudged up more things from 2017, a recurring occurrence now. Even the low-risk Josh Gordon acquisition was met with controversy. Sometimes it can be exhausting being an even-keeled Patriots fan man blogger and this was one of those exhausting weeks. But with a win in Detroit over Matt Patricia the Pats can get everything back on track and shut up a lot of the noise once again.

Despite a first-game shitshow, the Lions are going to put up a good fight. Like the Patriots, they’ve shown some holes but they’ve also had their share of nice plays, especially against the 49ers in a tight three-point loss.

While I know we will see a far better Patriots squad I also don’t expect it to be perfect. There’s still too much to work through, especially dealing with potential absences of Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung. Under any circumstances, a Pats defense without those two would be severely affected and that could be even more exacerbated if everyone plays as sloppy as they did in Jacksonville.

What do they have to do to get the all-important win and return home to face the Dolphins? Here’s the gameplan.

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Film Review: Patriots Offense and Defense Sucksonville Edition

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Nothing like an emotionless deep dive into the All-22 to give you a nice football reminder how scary it can look when even good teams play bad. I left my film review with a near-exact feeling like I had after breaking down the Patriots loss to the Chiefs in 2014. This is what happens when everyone takes turns making bad mistakes until things are just totally unraveled. Add in a talented young team playing a near-perfect game, making miraculous plays in heavy heat and it’s recipe for disaster.

And that’s what this loss was. But it was still just one loss in week two under extreme conditions. What we see in Detroit will be far more toward the center of who this team is. There might still be issues but no defense can play this perfectly bad two weeks in a row, especially a Patriots defense.

Flip just a couple plays and this is a ball game in the fourth quarter. But that doesn’t mean the Patriots don’t have issues to fix. Getting Josh Gordon this week proved that. But is it time to dip into the rookies at cornerback? At least there are options, whereas we’re all just holding our breath hoping Dont’a Hightower gets through the season on his knee.

More on that and everything else in the film review.

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Pats Posits: Brace for Hot Takes

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The 2018 Patriots fell back to earth with a thud, losing to the Jaguars in a decidedly lackluster performance.  The defense, losing both key cogs Patrick Chung and Trey Flowers to concussions, looked every bit as terrible as the squad we saw against the Eagles in Super Bowl 52.

Offensively, the Patriots completely fell into my gameplan trap. They couldn’t run the ball, got into third-and-longs and couldn’t covert. There was no explosiveness out of the offense with Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan largely invisible and Cordarrelle Patterson‘s trick plays largely ineffective.

Not much worked for the Patriots on Sunday. But this isn’t uncharted territory and September stinkers are often the norm, not the exception. They looked every bit as listless against the Chiefs in 2014 and 2017 and both those squads still made the Super Bowl. If anything this is just a reminder that it’s a long season and what happens on September 15th can often have little or no effect on what happens in February.

The important thing is to figure out ‘what now.’ The Patriots still fought hard, a sign of nearly all Belichick’s teams, but they made way too many mistakes and way too few plays. Building off sparks like Kyle Van Noy‘s interception and Stephon Gilmore‘ and Trey Flowers’ forced fumbles. These Patriots never packed it in, but do they have the pieces to overcome the glaring number of shortcomings they displayed?

Let’s dive into some gut reaction Posits.

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Patriots Pending Free Agent Top 10 Power Rankings

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As the 2018 Patriots take shape, there are a number of players who will be entering the final years of their contracts. Not everyone can be re-signed, as Patriots fans are all too familiar, but who should take priority?

Let’s do a quick power ranking of those who either need new deals or will be on other teams in 2019.

  1. Trey Flowers — Flowers has been battling injuries for much of camp though it doesn’t appear to be anything that will keep him out of the regular season. Still, it’s not the best start for a defensive end looking to get paid as a premium position. The emergence of Derek Rivers would soften the blow if Flowers were to leave, but strong technical players like him are hard to find and defensive end depth is critical as we saw last year. It still appears very much a toss up if the Patriots will pay Flowers top dollar, or turn things over to the trio of Rivers, Dietrich Wise and Adrian Clayborn.
  2. Trent Brown — It’s hard to put Brown second overall when he hasn’t played a single regular season snap but so far he’s been exactly what the Patriots needed at left tackle, a critical position. Do they really want to have to find another left tackle next offseason? Especially considering that Isaiah Wynn’s future is still murky after being lost for the season. It might be smart for the Patriots to spring as soon as possible before every other team in the league sees that he can be a starting left tackle.
  3. Chris Hogan — There were reports that the Pats and Hogan were talking a new deal, which is a good sign considering he’s really the most reliable receiver on the team right now. Most useful is his versatility — he can play inside or out, and while he might not have the quickness of Edelman or the deep speed of Dorsett, Hogan is the most well-rounded and should have a great season if he can stay on the field. He led the league in yards-per-reception in 2016 and despite missing seven games in 2017 he had just four fewer catches and still topped his touchdown total, going fro four to five.
  4. Danny Shelton — So far Shelton has been the most immovable object on the Patriots’ defensive front and looks poised to live up to his first-round billing. Like Trent Brown, it might be premature to put him this high, but with Malcolm Brown’s apparent regression, defensive tackle could be a critical need next offseason. Players like Shelton are impossible to find and if he does play like his draft status I’d move him all the way up into the top three, that’s how critical a player like him is to the defense.
  5. Shaq Mason — Many might argue that Mason should be higher but the reality is that right guard is probably the easiest position on a football team to fill and as much as he’s an athletic specimen and I’d love to keep him, replacing him wouldn’t be nearly as tough as replacing those above him who are unique players at difficult positions to fill.
  6. Stephen Gostkowski — Gost is still one of the best kickers in the game but you just never know when his age and value will hit that crossroads where Belichick feels okay turning the page on him. He had his third-best FG percentage in 2017 and was perfect 4-4 beyond 50 yards. The Pats were lucky when they let Adam Vinatieri walk and turned things over to the rookie Gostkowski and it all went perfectly. Could they get that lucky again?
  7. Eric Rowe — I don’t think anyone is on the Rowe bandwagon even though he’s the most tenured Pats corner and was far better than anyone wants to admit in the Super Bowl. He gives the Pats a tall corner for matchups and is a valuable piece in the secondary. But with both him and Jason McCourty due to hit free agency the Pats might want to make a move to secure at least one of them and so far Rowe looks like the de facto number two corner behind Stephon Gilmore
  8. Malcom Brown — Don’t give up on Brown yet, but it’s not a good sign when the team declines your fifth year option. That likely means they don’t plan on paying you with a big contract. He’ll need his best season as a pro and even then he likely won’t be back.
  9. Phillip Dorsett — I haven’t been all that impressed with Dorsett yet and he’s got a long way to go to earn another contract with the team in my eyes. Still, with Edelman getting older, the cupboard is pretty bare aside from Hogan. I’m fascinated to see how his season unfolds.
  10. Jeremy Hill — An honorable mention here, because this is based on my speculation that Hill will be a featured back at least for the early part of this season and might even be a better piece that Rex Burkhead who just returned from a two-week injury.  Hill would be affordable and excited for a second contract with the team. That spells the Patriots’ favorite word — value.

Other Notable Free Agents

  • Ryan Allen – Could the team be looking to groom Corey Bojorquez behind the scenes this year to take over for Allen next year?
  • Jordan Richards – Imagine what will happen if he gets a new deal over those guys up top?
  • Cordarrelle Patterson – Could be a fun weapon for the offense this year but will he just use the Pats to get a bigger paycheck elsewhere next year? He’s a real wild card and will be somewhat of a luxury this year.
  • LaAdrian Waddle — Has been a life saver with so many recent tackle injuries.

Potential Patriots Extensions and Cap Casualties

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The Patriots are usually pretty good about managing their contracts and not getting into deals that are bad for the team. Still, they have no remorse about making a move that’s best for the football team, even if it means they visit Fitness Muscle Meals and eat a chunk of salary by jettisoning a player they overpaid.

They are 8th-lowest in dead cap money.

They’re also proactive when it comes to getting extensions done for players they want to retain before they hit free agency, especially for the middle class of their roster. We always hold our breath when talented young players close in on the end of their affordable rookie deals and this season is no different.

As we count down to training camp here are some of the most interesting contracts on the team. Players who make more than they’re contributing, players whose dead money makes them near uncuttable and those who are coming to the end of their deals and could be in line for an extension.

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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Defensive End

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The Patriots’ defensive end group suffered heavy departures and attrition in 2017. Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard, key passing-down contibutors for the Super Bowl 52 squad, left via free agency. When Rob Ninkovich retired just a week into training camp it was the biggest blow of all.

Outside his four-game suspension to start 2016 and Ninkovich started every game since mid-way through the 2010 season. You don’t simply replace that kind of reliability, not to mention clutch plays that the “Jet Killer” Ninkovich made on a regular basis.

Third-round pick Derek Rivers tore his ACL in training camp, another critical blow at a ravaged position. Cassius Marsh played 267 defensive snaps, then asked out. It was just too much.

The Patriots were then forced to lean completely on Trey Flowers, while using rookies Dietrich Wise and Adam Butler, Bills practice squadder Eric Lee, and later James Harrison, the strongest edge-setter of them all, as replacements.

2017’s defensive ends were a shell of what they had been since the early 2010’s, before Ninkovich and Chandler Jones started a run of having two strong starters at the top and an array of pass rushers behind them. Though in 2013 and 2014 it was pretty much just Ninkovich and Jones who miraculously played almost every snap and never got hurt.

Will things be better this year? It sure looks like it.

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Patriots Gameplan: The 2018 Offseason

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And just like that, the team-building portion of the season has commenced. We’re on to 2018.

Belichick and McDaniels staying, at least one more go-round with Tom Brady, and a bunch of really good players returning from injury. As we turn the page on 2017 and the loss to the Eagles, next fall is already looking promising if only by getting Julian Edelman and Dont’a Hightower back alone. Not to mention Derek Rivers, Harvey Langi, Shea McClellin and others like Tony Garcia, etc.

There are two places the Patriots must start — left tackle and running back. From there the dominos will fall, into external free agency and the draft.

Here are the headlines of what’s coming this offseason and an early feel on the needs.

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