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Film Review: Finding Some Silver Linings

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I was surprised that watching the All-22 of the Patriots loss to the Lions made me feel a lot better about the Patriots chances of turning the season around from the 1-2 start. This is almost always the case, because you get a sense of how close the Pats were on many plays that went against them.

It’s small consolation, but it’s a clear illustration that all is not lost and that a 23-10 loss isn’t the worst thing to ever happen to a football team even if it was the second week in a row the Pats didn’t really show up.

I had to take this one in as a total experience, not a specific play by play, drive by drive breakdown but I came away with some general thoughts that were much different than what I came away with as I depressingly crawled into bed close to midnight on Sunday.

The first good takeaway is the Ja’whaun Bentley is a keeper. Yes, he had mistakes that took away from his overall impressive play, but this is the kind of player the Patriots defense needs badly and he should only continue to improve. His reaction speed is so impressive, better I dare say than any other linebacker on the roster. Watching his interception and he sticks with his receiver like glue and effortlessly makes the pick.

I don’t know where the Patriots defense is headed, but I’m pretty positive that Bentley is going to be a building block.

The other good guy I’ll mention is Dietrich Wise, who appears to still be viewed mostly as a pass rusher at this point, but he brings great energy and is one of the only consistently disruptive players up front. Bentley and Wise are the future on defense.

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Pats Posits: Brace for Hot Takes

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The 2018 Patriots fell back to earth with a thud, losing to the Jaguars in a decidedly lackluster performance.  The defense, losing both key cogs Patrick Chung and Trey Flowers to concussions, looked every bit as terrible as the squad we saw against the Eagles in Super Bowl 52.

Offensively, the Patriots completely fell into my gameplan trap. They couldn’t run the ball, got into third-and-longs and couldn’t covert. There was no explosiveness out of the offense with Phillip Dorsett and Chris Hogan largely invisible and Cordarrelle Patterson‘s trick plays largely ineffective.

Not much worked for the Patriots on Sunday. But this isn’t uncharted territory and September stinkers are often the norm, not the exception. They looked every bit as listless against the Chiefs in 2014 and 2017 and both those squads still made the Super Bowl. If anything this is just a reminder that it’s a long season and what happens on September 15th can often have little or no effect on what happens in February.

The important thing is to figure out ‘what now.’ The Patriots still fought hard, a sign of nearly all Belichick’s teams, but they made way too many mistakes and way too few plays. Building off sparks like Kyle Van Noy‘s interception and Stephon Gilmore‘ and Trey Flowers’ forced fumbles. These Patriots never packed it in, but do they have the pieces to overcome the glaring number of shortcomings they displayed?

Let’s dive into some gut reaction Posits.

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Sunday Pats Posits: Preseason Week 3

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We’re a mere three weeks away from the start of the Patriots 2018 regular season and with most of training camp done and two games under their belt the team has very much started to take shape.

Two significant injuries have befallen the two first-round picks, but since neither were really needed to immediately step in and start, the impact of both isn’t all that significant. Unfortunate yes, but neither constitutes a critical blow like losing Julian Edelman was last year.

What else have we learned about this version of the Pats? How much can we take away from their two preseason games? How might the team evolve this season? Let’s dive in on this Sunday morning with a bunch of Posits.

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Patriots Rookie Power Rankings

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The Patriots have a day off today so it’s a moment to catch our breath. As you probably heard by now Isaiah Wynn caught a second punt attempt and won the team a day off. It won’t do them much good in NFL Power Rankings, but it was a welcomed break after five-straight days of work.

Belichick pulls this all the time in camp — Matt Light, Vince Wilfork caught punts, Stephen Gostkowski kicked a night off-winning field goal. But every time I can remember, all did it on the first try. I’m pretty sure Wynn was the first to drop one, but that doesn’t hurt his spot on my rookie power rankings after five training camp practices because he looks like a beast.

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Tweets of Note: 2018 Patriots Training Camp Practice #3

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The pads came on at Patriots training camp on Saturday, and despite the potential for some physicality, it sounds like the energy was muted in the third practice of the season. Hopefully, when I’m there tomorrow the energy is up again, though this is where camp starts to turn into a grind.

Here are the tweets that stood out:

By all accounts, Wise had an excellent practice and was dominant. This kind of tone-setting is just what you want to see out of the second-year player. He had a reduced role in the Super Bowl and I think he might’ve been able to help. The top three ends are pretty set with Flowers, Clayborn and Wise. Whether Derek Rivers can carve a pass-rushing role remains to be seen, but he is way down the depth chart on the regular personnel packages.

Reminder the Pats haven’t scored a defensive touchdown since 2015. Another thing — Mike Lombardi writes in Gridiron Genius that you can judge how fast a defense is by how many fumbles they force. Well in 2017 the Pats ranked 30th with nine forced fumbles. 2016 – 19 t-3rd, 2015 – 24 3rd. Defense needs more plays like the one Harmon made today in practice, so it’s nice to see.

Sounds like the towel was bloody too? Hopefully just stitches and not an eye injury. Eek.

Matt Chatham had some good tweets about loving Wynn too. Brown will be the guy at least to start, but if somebody gets hurt we could see Wynn in there and it could be fun to watch.

Second time in three days Michel has lost a ball, not good for the guy who had the highest fumble rate in this year’s draft class. Nothing will delay his development quicker than losing the ball. Just ask Stevan Ridley.


Another good day for Brady and Matthews, an excellent sign.

 

Handing Out Real Patriots Rookie Numbers

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In case you missed it this spring, Bill Belichick was up to some new tricks with the rookies, not giving them numbers that fit their positions but instead just handing out numbers starting at 50 in order (h/t to NESN’s Doug Kyed for cracking that code).


Yup, right now the line in order of the picks, but still skipping the retired 56 (Andre Tippett) and 57 (Steve Nelson).

When training camp opens in 20 days everyone has to have actual numbers that fit their positions and even then players could again switch once cuts are made and other, better numbers become available. Yeah, it’s a good bet Christian Sam won’t be doubling up on 54 with Dont’a Hightower.

Let’s take a stab at which numbers would be good choices for the notable rookies.

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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Running Back

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The Patriots ground game jumped from 17th in the rushing DVOA in 2016 all the way to third in 2017, good enough for their third-best ranking since 2000. But with leading rusher Dion Lewis gone to Tennesee, the Patriots will be looking to re-adjust their backfield, with first-round pick Sony Michel the centerpiece.

Despite the impressive season from the running backs, I felt like the Patriots went away from what worked best for them in the playoffs. In games where they gave Lewis the ball 10-plus times the team was 10-0, with a 15.6 average point margin of victory. That was on display against the Titans in the first round of the playoffs, but Lewis would get just nine carries against the Jags and Eagles in the last two playoff games.

I know it’s hard to complain when you put up as much yardage in the Super Bowl as the Patriots did, but they also lost the time of possession battle by 10 minutes and were 2-4 in the red zone. Lewis was second on the team in red zone touchdowns. For as much attention as Malcolm Butler draws in criticism of usage, I’d put Lewis up there as well.

But alas, Lewis is gone and the Pats will have to figure out who’s up next. They have a bunch of interesting options, but Michel’s ceiling could determine if this ground game can remain atop the league rankings in 2018.

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