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rex burkhead

Belichick Hoping for Ground Balance

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For whatever reason Bill Belichick always seems to open up a bit more than usual when talking with Pat Kirwan on Sirius XM Radio and Monday’s show was no exception. Kirwan, who poked his head into then Ninkovich retirement presser, has one of then best books learning how to watch football — Take Your Eye Off The Ball.

This quote stood out to me, as Belichick mentioned they were looking for more balance out of their backfield.

“Hopefully we will be a little bit less of a Blount on first down [and] second-and-short, Lewis on second down, White on third down — that type of [set-up],” Belichick said on SiriusXM NFL Radio.

“Part of that for us was getting our best player to do what he does best type of thing. Hopefully, this year, we’ll have a little more balance between the running game and passing game. Again, LG was primarily a runner. He didn’t have a lot of receiving production. The reverse is true of James White. So hopefully with our backs this year we’ll have a little more balance and be a little less predictable from that spot.”

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Coffin Corner: Analytics-hating Patriots Will Break Football Outsiders Database

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In March of 2014, when Bill Belichick signed Darrelle Revis to a one-year deal, I was so convinced of the Patriots defensive dominance that I bet my boss, an extremely successful TV writer, $20 that they would go undefeated.

This same writer has written scores of televisions shows, including one of the most lucrative of the last two decades, won the most prestigious awards in television and has had success few could dream of, but give him truth-serum and I’m sure the $20 he won off of me after THE FIRST GAME was the most satisfying victory he’s ever experienced. Not to mention the slaughter in Kansas City that came a few weeks later. Not a meeting or chat goes by that he doesn’t remind me of my overconfidence. Because there is no more relished feeling in the world than schadenfreude, the pleasure in an enemy’s pain or loss.

If you need proof, just remember how many replays you watched of Roger Goodell’s disappearing act at the podium last February: “Where did he go? Back and to the left. Back. And to the left.” Anyway, you know why I made that bet with my old boss? I thought because ’07 happened that it could happen again, ignoring the fact that it was a statistical anomaly, because I bore witness to it.

You’re already seeing the Boston sports landscape head in this direction before training camp even begins, which should worry us all.

Hot take: I hated ’07. Not simply because it cost me $20 7 years later. Not simply because the gut punch Super Bowl. Not simply because I couldn’t sleep for like 5 nights after that game because the alcohol was still draining from my body. I hated it because a win never felt like a win, even by 40 points, it felt like an escape.  It’s a bad thing to be a fan and simply rooting for the best team in the league is not enough, or the best team in the decade, no, it has to be perfect. Which sucks.  And Bill Belichick and Tom Brady make fans feel justified, because they have created a statistical anomaly, they make numbers their bitches (see here, buy the sweatshirt).

Plenty of fans loved the Moss season, but to me ’07 was the height of hubris in Patriots nation. Thankfully,  the “do your job”, “no days off” humility returned and produced two Super Bowls.

Anyway, I’ve learned my lesson. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict, they do NOT go 16-0… and add that I hope they don’t. Because competition and struggle are the only ways we humans get better at things. Besides, too many fluky things happen: fumbles, penalties, injuries, ‘integrity’-driven suspensions, etc…

Now, all that out of the way. I think the 2017 New England Patriots will have the most efficient offense in NFL history and could break Football Outsiders database in two.

Sorry Bill, but we’re talking about advance metrics.

 

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Patriots Positional Preview: Running Backs

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Today we’re taking a look at the Patriots’ running back corps, one of the most intriguing positions on the roster.

With the departure of LeGarrette Blount, who set a team record with 18 rushing touchdowns, things will look a little different in 2017, but the approach should remain the same. The biggest question is of course, who takes those short yardage carries, especially on the goalline where 11 of Blount’s TDs came from just one yard out.

The favorite to be the early down/early game pounder is Mike Gillislee, a restricted free agent the Pats signed away from the Bills and whose one-cut, hard running style is a perfect fit for what the Pats need. But free agent Rex Burkhead, who saw just 13 carries in his first three seasons with the Bengals before getting his shot in 2016 and putting up 4.6 yards-per-attempt, has size and versatility to take some of those carries as well.

As Pro Football Talk pointed out, Gillislee and Burkhead are football analytics all-stars.

Analytics website FootballOutsiders.com ranked Gillislee as the most efficient running back in the NFL last year, and Burkhead as No. 2. Analytics website NumberFire also had Gillislee first and Burkhead second. Analyst Warren Sharp’s metrics had Gillislee first and Burkhead second in success rate, and Burkhead first and Gillislee second in the fewest “missed yards per attempt,” or how close they came to being successful on the plays that weren’t quite good enough to quality as successful.

No matter how the replacing of Blount shakes out, the Patriots have the entire spectrum covered at running back. James White put up an MVP-caliber performance in the Super Bowl, while Dion Lewis, now a full year removed from tearing his ACL, could return to the electric explosion he showed prominently in early 2015.

With battering ram James Devlin leading the way, and a couple young potential practice squad members, there’s nothing this group lacks.

Let’s take a closer look at each.

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ProJo/Daniels: Former coaches rave about Patriots’ pick-ups

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWv39lWRpog&t=37s

“They’re getting a blue collar, I would say undervalued player around the league,” Harbaugh said. “Don’t sleep on Lawrence Guy. Don’t under estimate this player. He’s a really good football player — run and pass. Love him to death. Every time I see him he gives me this big giant Lawrence Guy hug. He’s a great guy. He’ll be a leader in the locker room. I thought it was a great signing by the Patriots.”

Source: Former coaches rave about Patriots’ pick-ups

Some good quotes from former coaches in this piece from Mark Daniels, and of course it’s always nice to listen to Chuck Pagano and John Harbaugh praise players that will now be Patriots. You know it just kills them on the inside.

I think this has been a pretty surprising offseason so far. The only real slam dunk was Dont’a Hightower and even that was interesting for a bit. But in the end it worked out because Hightower got to see what things are like elsewhere around the AFC. You know the saying, if you love something set it free and if it comes back to you he’ll be smashing offensive opponents for the next four years or so.

Rex Burkhead, Lawrence Guy and Dwayne Allen are classic Patriots moves. Solid football players that weren’t atop anyone’s fit list but players the Patriots pounced on because, simply put, they’re football players. At the end of the day, that’s what made the Patriots dynasty. Not grabbing overpriced superstars in free agency or lucking out with their constantly-low-end draft picks. Just guys who play hard and love football. Of course, having a mastermind like BB to put them in position to succeed helps most of all, but you get the picture.

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Report: Patriots Sign RB Rex Burkhead

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While we were waiting not-so-patiently on Butler and Hightower the Patriots signed running back Rex Burkhead, as reported by Field Yates.

Burkhead was drafted in the 6th round of the 2013 draft and waited three seasons before injuries gave him a shot in 2016. He delivered with 4.6 yards-per-attempt on 74 carries with two touchdowns. He also pitched in with 17 catches for the Bengals, had six kickoff returns in 2016 and played close to half of the special teams snaps. Clearly he brings some value and can contribute in a number of ways. At 5’10”, 210 pounds, Burkhead should compete for early down carries.

Rushing & Receiving Table
Games Rushing Receiving
Year G GS Rush Yds TD Lng Y/A Tgt Rec Yds TD RRTD Fmb
2013 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2014 9 0 9 27 1 10 3.0 10 7 49 0 1 0
2015 16 0 4 4 0 2 1.0 15 10 94 1 1 1
2016 16 1 74 344 2 17 4.6 20 17 145 0 2 1
Career 42 1 87 375 3 17 4.3 45 34 288 1 4 2
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/14/2017.

 

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