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PatsProp Preview – Ravens Flock To New England

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AP Photo/Steven Senne

Week 3 is here and the Patriots are back at Gillette Stadium for the first time since January 2. Here’s a look at some players we should be keeping an eye on tomorrow against the Ravens!

Patriots To Watch

Mac Jones

This could be a game for the offense to kick into gear and find some rythym. The Ravens could well be still reeling from their late defeat in a points fest last week against the Dolphins and the Pats have to try and take advantage.

Mac has been poor so far this season, but a strong performance at home could well be the ticket to pull his second year as starter back on the right path.

Hunter Henry

Henry has been missing so far this season and that desperately needs to change. Aside from Jakobi Meyers, Mac really doesn’t a second player to find consistently, whereas Henry was that player last season. One to watch tomorrow, especially in the red area.

Kyle Dugger

At the minute Dugger in questionable to play tomorrow with a knee injury. From my recollection, Dugger played a big role against Mark Andrews in 2020, the last time these franchises met, so it would be a big loss for the secondary if he can’t play.

If he does miss out, look for Jabrill Peppers to step up in his absence.

DeVante Parker

It’s been a less than inspiring start to Parker’s Patriots career so far, on the 4 targets he’s had through 2 games, Parker has caught only 1 of them for 9 yards.

I think he does have a skillset which will be of use for the Pats, but will we see it tomorrow?

Ravens Flock

Lamar Jackson

Jackson has hit the ground running this season in a quest for his second league MVP award, whilst also in a contract year no less. We all know what threat he poses on the ground, but he’s been particularly impressive throwing the ball this season.

The Patriots will need to stifle him on the ground and force him into making poor decisions throwing the ball, I just don’t think they have the defensive talent to compete with their offensive weapons 1on1.

Mark Andrews

The Ravens’ top threat was in fine form last time out, securing 9 catches for 103 yards and a TD. If the Patriots are going to win, limiting Andrews’ production will be key. He’s for sure one to watch on the Ravens side.

Rashod Bateman

Electric burner is how I would describe Bateman. He had pretty much the same statline as Andrews last week, with the exception of his TD catch being a big 75-yard play. The Patriots did a good job of limiting Tyreek Hill from making any big plays in Week 1, can they stop Bateman from doing the same tomorrow?

Marcus Williams

Williams has had an electric start to his time in Baltimore, securing 3 picks in the opening weeks of the season. With Mac making questionable decisions last week throwing the ball, Williams will be on patrol to add to his tally of interceptions. Expect him to cover Agholor on the outside.

A Closer Look at Flea Flicking Off the Ravens

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We all know how much better the Patriots running game has been this year than last year. With three games to go, there have been more rushing touchdowns and more first downs than last seasons full year totals. Leading the way from a statistical standpoint has been Legarrette Blount. Actually leading the way has been the offensive line under the returning Dante Scarnecchia, and an infusion of young, hungry, and mean players on the inside of the line.

This season’s running game has been a welcome change from the abysmal ground game in 2015. Play actions feel more effective. Comparing what statistics are available, Tom Brady was 6th in Football Outsiders DVOA in 2015 on play action passes, though only 21st in yardage differential on passes without play action. and this year has the highest passer rating in the league on play action passes, with a 125.0 (2016 DVOA numbers for play action aren’t available yet). That’s a great effect of the running game.

Numbers start to look that good when opposing teams are heavily committed to stopping the run, as opposed to barely caring if you hand the ball off…and when your running game has well-coached teams committed to the point of overpursuit, you start getting away with beautifully ballsy plays like this:

This is the first half of the flea flicker that went to Chris Hogan for 28 yards. One of those sexy-not sexy plays that doesn’t make a highlight reel during the week, because it didn’t score, and wasn’t a turnover. Stay hypnotized by that play for a moment. Here is the All-22 of the same play, watch the action of Baltimore’s defense up front:

Eight Ravens in pursuit. Great read by CJ Mosley to follow when David Andrews peeled off his block to go back and protect Brady, and the coverage was actually pretty solid down field. Hogan beat his 1 on 1, and Malcolm Mitchell was bracketed by a corner and safety. The Ravens played this as well as possible, but were still hopelessly out of position up front. In 2015, this play probably has some devastating hit to Brady, or the pitch back to Brady is intercepted for a touchdown, or some other ugly result. Instead, we have probably the longest flea flicker pitch in history (Seriously! Look at that! Blount starts in the middle of the field and ends up a good 5-6 yards outside the hash before that pitch! Insane!), and one more thing for opposing defenses to have to worry about when overcommitting to the run.

This was beautiful, and I sure am looking forward to the next development off of the success of the running game.

Patriots vs Ravens Film Review: Defense Edition

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This was the game by the defense that I’ve been waiting a long time for. Were there some mistakes? Of course. But overall, the Patriots defense played with their best intensity of the season and demonstrated why they can be as good as they want to be when they play within the system.

The big headline coverage-wise in this one was a shift to a lot more zone coverage, with a lot of special attention being paid to the middle of the field as I noted was a critical area in my gameplan article. Early in the game the Patriots played a lot of Cover 2 zone, which had safeties over the tops of the wide receivers and a flood of three zone players right in the flat.

They mixed in some man coverage, but this was primarily a zone game as they shifted to more Cover 3 in the second half. It was a good lesson for me from a football study perspective. I’ve always believe man coverage is the only way to go in today’s NFL but this game showed how effective zone can be when it’s executed well.

We’re finally seeing what we expected this season. An amoeba defense that can flood the line of scrimmage and have any number of guys drop or rush. Maybe they just needed some time but everyone is working together now and the results were obvious. Boil it down to the simple “Do Your Job” because that’s what everyone on the Patriots defense was doing.

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Pats Posits: The Rumble with Double Fumbles

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The Patriots overcame three critical turnovers in what was otherwise their best game of the 2016 season, defeating the Ravens 30-23. It was interesting, as it always is with these teams, but the Pats sealed the game with a clutch 79-yard touchdown pass to a streaking Chris Hogan. That put the Pats back up by 10 and effectively won the game.

A quick-strike 79-yard touchdown? A 1,000 yard rusher leading the league in touchdowns? A defense leading the league in points-against and safeties? Who is this Patriots team, because I think I love them.

It’s hard to win in the playoffs against good teams when you turn the ball over three times in the second half. But the good news is that great teams don’t collapse when they cough it up twice on back-to-back returns.

It was hard not to recall the 2015 season and how everything seemed to be going pretty great until Harper’s Muff in Denver. That team still fought to overtime before succumbing to the Broncos and watching their homefield advantage and season slowly fade away, but the 2016 team decided:

Cyrus’ Muff was not the hill they were dying on. Nor was Slater’s Cough Up.

Resiliency. The mark of any championship team. No matter how much people want to complain about Cyrus Jones this week, things are looking good for the pending Super Bowl run. Clean up the turnovers and the Patriots will be primed for a run at number five.

More on the 2016 Patriots’ identity, how to proceed with Cyrus, and more in the Posits…

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Countdown to Patriots-Ravens MNF

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I kinda enjoyed having a stress-free Sunday yesterday, especially with all the holiday stuff that has to get done this time of year. But now, staring down the barrel of a full busy work day that will be capped off with a major Patriots-Ravens game on Monday Night Football and I’m starting to feel the stress.

Right now, it’s all in the Patriots hands. Win the next two and they could very well lock up the top seed in the AFC. And after yesterday is there really anyone who truly believes the Patriots don’t have an excellent shot at not only getting to the Super Bowl but beating any NFC team once they get there?

But there’s still four games to go, a quarter of the season, and there could be plenty of twists and turns awaiting us, especially against our two biggest rivals…the two teams that stood between us and the Super Bowl four of the last five years in the AFC Championship.

Yes, the Patriots have three games in the next 13 days. In that time the expectations for their playoff run will be set, and I just can’t wait to see tonight how they come out. Is this a peaking Patriots team that we’ve seen for many of the last 15 seasons? Or is it a fading one like injuries dictated last season?

Few thoughts from the Sunday action and Deflategate Part Deux…

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 14 vs. Baltimore Ravens

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There are certain games that define a team’s regular season and this one against the Ravens sure has the makings of a pivotal contest for the 2016 Patriots. There are plenty of reasons one could argue the Ravens are an inferior team, like their 27th-ranked offense or their 3-4 start to the season and struggles on the road.

But here’s the fact, the Ravens know how to play the Patriots. They won’t be intimidated coming to New England, where the Patriots have already lost two games this season. We all thought the 2014 Divisional Playoff game would be a cakewalk, instead the Pats had to dig themselves out of two 14-point holes as Joe Flacco consistently tore them apart until his final game-sealing interception.

Add in the atmosphere of a December Monday Night Football game, the lingering bad blood from the Ravens starting Deflategate and this one should be a classic that will tell us a lot about the 2016 Patriots.

Strap on your helmets for my gameplan…

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The Beginning of The Season: Week 14 Scouting Report of the Baltimore Ravens

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This season so far has been a typical Pats year for the second half of the BB/TB12 era. A September Stinker, ups and downs with how talented the offense/defense is, hot takes galore on Brady and BB, a clear lead in the AFC East, and an important injury. Now that we’re through all of that muck, the season sort of really begins. The Patriots now have a clear mind of the playoff picture and not that the games before didn’t matter, but we know exactly what is at stake for these games now. The games matter, the teams are better, and the end of the season is closer. Here’s where the season really begins.

Here’s everything you need to know about the Baltimore Ravens, aka, “John Harbaugh and The Rule Changers”

Week 14 vs Baltimore Ravens

Monday December 12

8:30 EST, ESPN

High 30’s, 80% chance, 12 mph winds

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