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Patriots Training Camp Report: Friday (TFB-Day)

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Got back from another muggy Patriots practice, that featured alternating rain and glaring sun. I was on my game though, setting up right against one of the few trees on the hill that overlooks the stadium. The advantages up there: shade, slight wind, watching the practice from the end zone which makes it a lot easier to scout the players.

A lot of the important guys had their snaps limited, starting with Tom Brady, but also including Dont’a Hightower, Devin McCourty, Rob Gronkowski and Stephon Gilmore. That gave some of the younger players a chance at more reps with starting-caliber players.

Here are some of those who are getting some more chances:

— Christian Sam saw time playing with Hightower as the top nickel linebacker duo and seemed comfortable within the defense. He’s making strides.

— Riley McCarron got plenty of chances but he showed inconsistency. Not sure him or Berrios can stake a claim on a roster spot right now. Did think it was Berrios’ best practice that I’ve seen, gaining separation on Jomal Wiltz on one snap for whatever that’s worth.

— Wiltz and Ryan Lewis saw plenty of time at cornerback today. Neither stood out like JC Jackson has to me. Jackson is getting time as a gunner too, so he’s really looking like he could have an inside spot on a job at this point.

— Eddie Pleasant and Nicholas Grigsby look mostly like roster locks right now, playing multiple special teams units and getting valuable reps on defense as well.

— The whole offense took a lap after a sloppy exchange. They had already fumbled one. Funny to see Brady, who wasn’t really practicing at this point, take a lap with them. It drew happy birthday cheers from the audience, even though it was a penalty lap.

— Mike Gillislee was back in pads and looks explosive on a couple carries to me. Jeremy Hill has a spot on the kickoff return team right now so it’d look like he’s adding more value than Gillislee so he’s got his work cut out for him.

— I am so curious to see how Jacob Hollister looks in the preseason. He’s been great at camp, catching everything thrown his direction, consistently getting open. When we talk about filling in for Edelman weeks one through four, Hollister could be a significant part of the equation. Between him and Decker, the Pats will have some inside size this year that they’ve never really had.

— If you missed my 53-man projection from yesterday I can say that I feel even better about my defensive picks after today’s practice.

Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Running Back

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The Patriots ground game jumped from 17th in the rushing DVOA in 2016 all the way to third in 2017, good enough for their third-best ranking since 2000. But with leading rusher Dion Lewis gone to Tennesee, the Patriots will be looking to re-adjust their backfield, with first-round pick Sony Michel the centerpiece.

Despite the impressive season from the running backs, I felt like the Patriots went away from what worked best for them in the playoffs. In games where they gave Lewis the ball 10-plus times the team was 10-0, with a 15.6 average point margin of victory. That was on display against the Titans in the first round of the playoffs, but Lewis would get just nine carries against the Jags and Eagles in the last two playoff games.

I know it’s hard to complain when you put up as much yardage in the Super Bowl as the Patriots did, but they also lost the time of possession battle by 10 minutes and were 2-4 in the red zone. Lewis was second on the team in red zone touchdowns. For as much attention as Malcolm Butler draws in criticism of usage, I’d put Lewis up there as well.

But alas, Lewis is gone and the Pats will have to figure out who’s up next. They have a bunch of interesting options, but Michel’s ceiling could determine if this ground game can remain atop the league rankings in 2018.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 13 at Buffalo Bills

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The Patriots are back on the road this weekend, in the middle of playing five-of-six away from the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium. Of course when you’re undefeated on the road and haven’t lost there since late in the 2015 season maybe it isn’t such a bad thing.

The Patriots odds for Sundays game are once again unnervingly high.

This is arguably the toughest divisional game remaining this season. Though the Bills stumbled mightily two weeks ago with a sudden decision to yank Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo got back on track with a solid win over the Patriot-defeating Chiefs in Kansas City. That’s never an easy task. A win over the Patriots would put the Bills back in the playoff contender category and we’ve seen plenty of tight ones in Buffalo to expect a good game.

The Patriots’ biggest opponent in recent weeks has been their own injuries. That’s just where we’re at with this dynasty now. Staying healthy is all that really stands between them and how high their Super Bowl expectations are, and last week they were hit hard again, losing Nate Ebner and Martellus Bennett for the season. Luckily injuries to key cogs Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy do not appear to be serious.

Can the Pats keep their 13-game road win streak and seven-game overall win streak intact while putting an iron grip on the AFC East title? Here’s the gameplan to make it happen.

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How Did Patriots Use Their Running Backs vs. Chiefs?

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While the Patriots played about as bad as one could have possibly imagined Thursday night, the sky is indeed not falling in New England, contrary to popular belief. Sure, the defense looked abysmal (at best), and the offense sputtered throughout the majority of the second half, but the 2017 Patriots are still a team loaded with talent that every team in the NFL should fear, and in an otherwise disappointing effort, the weapons out of the backfield showed a mere glimmer of how hard this Patriots offense will be to stop once it hits full gear.

The trio of Mike Gillislee, James White, and Rex Burkhead were a few of the lone bright spots Thursday night, with Gillislee as the unquestioned star of the show in his Patriots debut, racking up 45 yards on 15 attempts, finding the end zone on three occasions, and dominating the touches in the red zone. White also contributed 68 yards on 13 touches, and Burkhead gained 23 yards on his four touches.

Having three running backs of the caliber of this trio is an incredible thing, and I think we saw just the tip of the iceberg in terms of what these three are capable of.

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Mike Gillislee Predicted to Exceed Expectations This Season

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Sports predictions are wrong far more than they are right, but part of the fun of sports is making predictions, and ours is to keep your eye on Mike Gillislee when you bet on NFL this season.

Everyone knows the New England Patriots are the team to beat. You do not have to like them to appreciate that fact. On a team that isn’t afraid to spread the ball around, it is definitely interesting to try and figure out who the team’s breakout star will be, not just from season to season, but from week week.

And with every offseason, the reigning champs have been using their offseason to do a bit of maintenance and rebuilding. Starting cornerback Logan Ryan was replaced with Stephon Gilmore, while departed running back LeGarrette Blount, who set a team record for rushing touchdowns with 18 in 2016, still has his role up for grabs.

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Pats Camp Position Battles to Watch

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Originally I was going to take all the position battles and do a post on each, but upon further review that would be an exercise in tedium. How many of you would get excited about a full post about the thrilling battle for who the backup guard is going to be? Nobody? I thought so.

So instead of dragging this out I’m just going to lay them all out here in one handy dandy Friday post. This is peak #PatsFanProblems because there really isn’t a whole heck of a lot of uncertainty heading into training camp as to who will be on the field the most.

For the most part, then offense and defenses return intact, with a few notable exceptions. Offensively, Martellus Bennett and LeGarrette Blount departed and their roles were not insignificant, but the Patriots targeted their replacements with Dwayne Allen and Mike Gillislee (and maybe Rex Burkhead, BATTLE TIME!).

Defensively, Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard‘s departures left some uncertainty as far as the pass rushers go, and we know how everyone loves to talk pass rushers, while Logan Ryan‘s move to the Titans opened up a starting corner spot. But again, they brought in Kony Ealy, while drafting two other defensive ends, and gave cornerback Stephon Gilmore a mega deal to take Ryan’s spot.

So yes, all the turnover was pretty neatly handled, leaving the biggest questions at the bottom of the roster. But if you’re an obsessive Patriots fan (and if you’re reading this blog post there’s a pretty good chance you are) you care even about the minutiae like who the backup swing tackle will be.

Let’s breakdown the camp position battles!

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Coffin Corner: Analytics-hating Patriots Will Break Football Outsiders Database

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In March of 2014, when Bill Belichick signed Darrelle Revis to a one-year deal, I was so convinced of the Patriots defensive dominance that I bet my boss, an extremely successful TV writer, $20 that they would go undefeated.

This same writer has written scores of televisions shows, including one of the most lucrative of the last two decades, won the most prestigious awards in television and has had success few could dream of, but give him truth-serum and I’m sure the $20 he won off of me after THE FIRST GAME was the most satisfying victory he’s ever experienced. Not to mention the slaughter in Kansas City that came a few weeks later. Not a meeting or chat goes by that he doesn’t remind me of my overconfidence. Because there is no more relished feeling in the world than schadenfreude, the pleasure in an enemy’s pain or loss.

If you need proof, just remember how many replays you watched of Roger Goodell’s disappearing act at the podium last February: “Where did he go? Back and to the left. Back. And to the left.” Anyway, you know why I made that bet with my old boss? I thought because ’07 happened that it could happen again, ignoring the fact that it was a statistical anomaly, because I bore witness to it.

You’re already seeing the Boston sports landscape head in this direction before training camp even begins, which should worry us all.

Hot take: I hated ’07. Not simply because it cost me $20 7 years later. Not simply because the gut punch Super Bowl. Not simply because I couldn’t sleep for like 5 nights after that game because the alcohol was still draining from my body. I hated it because a win never felt like a win, even by 40 points, it felt like an escape.  It’s a bad thing to be a fan and simply rooting for the best team in the league is not enough, or the best team in the decade, no, it has to be perfect. Which sucks.  And Bill Belichick and Tom Brady make fans feel justified, because they have created a statistical anomaly, they make numbers their bitches (see here, buy the sweatshirt).

Plenty of fans loved the Moss season, but to me ’07 was the height of hubris in Patriots nation. Thankfully,  the “do your job”, “no days off” humility returned and produced two Super Bowls.

Anyway, I’ve learned my lesson. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict, they do NOT go 16-0… and add that I hope they don’t. Because competition and struggle are the only ways we humans get better at things. Besides, too many fluky things happen: fumbles, penalties, injuries, ‘integrity’-driven suspensions, etc…

Now, all that out of the way. I think the 2017 New England Patriots will have the most efficient offense in NFL history and could break Football Outsiders database in two.

Sorry Bill, but we’re talking about advance metrics.

 

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