josh gordon

Film Review: Deep Dive on Gronk, Brady, Edelman vs Vikings

December 5, 2018 by Mike Dussault

I was a little surprised to find this week that Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady and Julian Edelman were catching a bunch of criticism after Sunday’s win over the Vikings. Admittedly I’m a bit more of a defense guy. When the offense is on the field, it’s my time to relax and not get overly caught up in minutiae, at least on the initial live watch.

So when I saw Gronk’s game being labeled as one of the worst of his career I was scratching my head a bit. I remember him getting stopped short on third down which seemed weird and I remember the penalties, of which I wasn’t wasn’t entirely sure how good or bad they were. Edelman and Brady both had some similar moments but nothing that gave me much initial concern. The results overall were good and if anything, I felt like this looked like the Patriots offense we know and love — the scalpel — and this was the first time in a while it felt like they were playing to their strengths.

Maybe part of that was getting Rex Burkhead back and having three running backs for the first time all season. Or maybe it was just everything gelling like it usually does around this time of year.

This made an offensive film dive critical. Yesterday I banged through the defense’s film, which I loved, and today, I jumped into the other side of the ball.

Patriots Gameplan: Week 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings

November 30, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots return home for a brief road hiatus, taking on the 6-4-1 Vikings and unfamiliar opponent with plenty of quality pieces to challenge the thus-far inconsistent Pats. This next three-game set will essentially determine the Patriots road in the playoffs. A win at home this weekend, followed by road wins in Miami and Pittsburgh should solidify their position with a vital playoff bye. That would leave the only question as to whether they can make up one game on KC and get the top overall seed.

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This Vikings team will give the Pats everything they can handle. The stellar receiving duo of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen leads the way. Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook are a nice one-two combo at running back, while Kirk Cousins won’t be afraid to come in and throw it around Gillette Stadium. But the biggest problem for the Pats though could come in the form of tight end Kyle Rudolph.

The veteran Patriot secondary doesn’t usually lay stink bombs at home, but if they do, it will likely be apparent by Rudolph being their biggest and most consistent problem.

Defensively the Vikings also have the pieces to take the Patriots offense head on. They’re 6th overall in DVOA, including 4th against the run and 8th against the pass. They’re 10th in yards, 3rd in points. Basically, this is a top-10 defense and while the Patriots always have an advantage at home, no one should be expecting a walk in the park on either side of the ball.

Let’s dive into the gameplan.

Patriots Third Down Deep Dive

November 21, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots offensive third-down conversion rate has slipped below 40 percent for the just the third time (2005, 2013) since 2001, while the third-down defense ranks 25th in the league with their worst rate since 2011. If you’re looking for a reason why the Patriots have sputtered at times in 2018, third down, aka the money down, is a great place to start.

Without Julian Edelman for the first four games, the offense also had to replace super-clutch Danny Amendola, as well as Dion Lewis who sparked them quite a few times last year. When Gronk was slowed with injuries, it just made it that much 2018’s offensive transition harder. The results are obvious, as this new iteration of the Brady offense hasn’t quite totally clicked yet.

The defense doesn’t quite have those excuses. Aside from losing Ja’Whaun Bentley this is pretty much the defense the Patriots brought into training camp. They’ve shown plenty of signs of being a total defense, but their inconsistencies, especially on the road have been maddening. Some speed bumps should be expected with Matt Patricia gone and Brian Flores in, but now is the time for them to lock in.

Overall, the 2018 Patriots are 14th on offense and 24th on defense on third down. The 2015 and 2016 teams combined were 4th on offense and 7th on defense. The offense’s last dip was 2013, when they fell to 16th. The defense hasn’t fallen to 2010 depths yet, when they ranked 32nd in the league, allowing a whopping 47.1 percent conversion rate. They’re just at 43.1 now, the same rate they had in 2011, but still hovering over the bottom third of the league.

2015 and 2016 were the height of the second generation Belichick Patriots and where the bar was set before injuries and departures started to add up in 2017. Those two years were the best run by the third down units on both sides of the ball since ’05-’06. Let’s take a look at how and where they’ve declined.

Trey Flowers or Bust in Free Agency 2019

November 16, 2018 by Mike Dussault

Maybe this is the wrong time to take a look at the expiring contracts on the Patriots considering we’re coming off such a poor performance, but it’s the bye week and in just a few short months the free agents will be at the forefront of everyone’s mind no matter how the season ends.

The list of pending free agents has one big name at the top — Trey Flowers — and after him, and maybe Josh Gordon, is there anyone we’d be all that upset to see leave? Anyone who would truly hurt the Patriots a couple years down the road if they went elsewhere?

Let’s rundown the pending free agents, roughly ranked in order of importance current impact.

Pats Posits: Music City Disaster

November 12, 2018 by Mike Dussault

There’s simply no way to put a silver lining around the Patriots completely flat performance against the Titans. They were bad in all three phases and made just a handful of plays over the course of the entirety of the game. The up-and-down secondary, which had recently strung together some solid performances, fell down hard yesterday, led by Stephon Gilmore, just as everyone was becoming assured he was a superstar shutdown corner.

The kickoff and punt teams, sub-par all year, once again were bad, giving the Titans favorable field position all day and putting the defense even more in the crosshairs of a balanced offensive attack that the Pats had no answer for.

Then there was the offense, which went 3-15 on third down and put up just 40 rushing yards. Yes, those things go very much hand in hand, as the smoke and mirrors offense finally collapsed against a team that knew Tom Brady through and through.

Unfortunately, we’re at the phase of the Patriots dynasty that every bad game will be touted as the end, the cliff, the harbinger of doom for Belichick and Brady. This one will certainly get that treatment over the bye week as I’m sure the radio airwaves are full of long-held bile that has been waiting to explode.

There’s no question, the 2018 Patriots were not on the upward trajectory I assumed they were. They continue to be two different teams at home and on the road, a strange dichotomy for a team that went undefeated on the road for a season-and-a-half from 2016 to 2017. And now, they’re behind the eightball when it comes to homefield and the playoffs, meaning that their road woes must be fixed or their chances of getting to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons will be severely in jeopardy.

Still, they’re a better team than what we saw yesterday. And not every team will play as flawlessly as the Titans did, especially with their inside knowledge of Brady and the Pats. Let’s dive in and vent and try to find some meaning and maybe just maybe, a glint of hope?

Patriots Gameplan: Week 9 vs. Green Bay Packers

November 2, 2018 by Mike Dussault

Games like the Patriots vs. the Packers is why I write all these blogs. If you can’t just sit back and enjoy a great football matchup then I’m not sure what you’re doing. There’s not the underlying sense of stress that comes before a playoff game. I learned a long time ago if you only get excited for those, most seasons are going to be pretty depressing.

With no more Brady-Manning, we’re left with Brady vs. the mostly new guard, save a few select holdovers from the early days, the Roethlisbergers, the Flaccos and the Rivers’. Brady and NFC counterpart Aaron Rodgers have met but once, back in 2014 with Rodgers and the Packers beating the Patriots in what would be their last meaningful loss of the season. That just goes to show that even Sunday Night’s loser can take solace that losses can be the spark to a Super Bowl title.

As for the great Brady vs. Rodgers debate that has raged so fiercely this week, I can take appreciation in both quarterbacks. I do think it can largely be boiled down to the same Brady-Manning argument. Manning was bred to be a quarterback. Rodgers was bred to be a super athlete. Tom Brady didn’t have either of their natural gifts. Super Bowls are also largely team-dependant, but when you look at the overall body of their work, I’m a Brady guy through and through, and if that includes a little bit of Bill Belichick mixed in too I don’t really give a shit.

Brady has shown historic resilience when it all comes down to him. Those numerous times simply seal it for me, regardless how big a part Belichick played in the game-planning, team-building, etc. Brady has done it over and over with different guys everywhere.

Is Rodgers a better athlete? In a test tube, is he the guy you’d create? For sure. And I love watching him do what he does just like I enjoyed Peyton playing whenever it wasn’t against the Patriots.

But give me Tom Brady and his unstoppable quest from the doughy middle school kid to the GOAT every. single. time.

As for the teams on the field who will actually play against Brady and Rodgers and will decide the game? Here’s that gameplan!

Pats Posits: Patriots Win a Weird One in Chicago

October 21, 2018 by Mike Dussault

The Patriots needed to stop a Hail Mary at the one-yard line to hang on to a 38-31 win over the Chicago Bears after one of the most bizarre games in recent memory. Boiled down to its essence this was a game of good — two impressive interceptions and two special teams touchdowns — and bad — multiple long Mitch Trubisky runs and multiple penalties/giveaway.

The Bears were better than the Patriots on third down. They were better in the red zone. They had fewer penalties. They had more yards. But what they didn’t have in the end were more points and that’s why the Patriots are now 5-2 as they approach the midway point of the season.

Perhaps the biggest headline was the injury to Sony Michel, whom I’ve been harping on as perhaps the key piece of the offense. Michel’s leg was twisted around as he fumbled early in the game and had to be carted off. Of everything we take from this game, that injury might be the only significant piece that affects the Pats long term.

Overall this is the third disappointing performance on the road of 2018 but it was the first win, so that has to count for something. What else can we read into for the big picture beside the potential Michel injury? Here are the Posits.