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Young Guards Keying Patriots Resurgent Ground Attack

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Save for two terrible plays on special teams, the Patriots put forth their best overall effort of the season Monday night against Baltimore, led by a defensive effort unrivaled by anything we have seen out of this unit thus far in 2016, and, of course, Tom Brady and his 406 yards passing and three touchdowns. But an after-thought of sorts of the performance was the Patriots ability to run the football against the best rush defense in the NFL. Entering the Week 13 contest, the Ravens defense led the NFL in yards allowed, rush yards allowed, and rush yards allowed per game – not to mention they led the NFL in points allowed per game. In short, running the ball figured to be a tall task for the Patriots Monday night, especially considering it has been a long time since the Patriots have had a rushing attack of a high enough caliber to have success against the best rush defenses in football.

Prior to the matchup, the Ravens allowed only 3.4 yards per carry and just 75.5 yards per game on the ground. The Patriots rushed for 94 yards on the ground, and averaged 3.7 yards per carry, and while an uptick of only 0.3 yards more per carry doesn’t seem like a lot, consider this: the Ravens held Lesean McCoy and the Bills to a mere 2.7 YPC, Latavius Murray and the Raiders to just 3.3 YPC, and Leveon Bell and the Steelers to only 2.0 YPC. In fact, LeGarrette Blount averaged 4.0 YPC against Baltimore on Monday, more than all three backs I mentioned. He even put up a higher average than NFL rushing leader Ezekiel Elliot did against the Ravens  in their matchup earlier this season (Elliot averaged 3.9 YPC).

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Notes on the Pats Re-Watch (and leftovers)

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legarrette blountReally wish the All-22 film was up on Mondays, it would make turning the page to the next game that much quicker and easier. Alas, the film review will have to wait until tomorrow. In the meantime I took a quick re-watch of the Pats-Steelers game.

Here are some notes and some leftovers to go with the extensive Posits post from yesterday, as well as some notes on the fallout around the league after Week 7.

— Gotta start with Chandler Jones, who is reportedly in negotiations with the Cardinals on an extension. Good for Chandler and way to move on it when it’s still October and he’s still playing great. Traditionally his play has fallen off a cliff later in the year, often due to injuries. Bertrand was acting like this trade was a huge mistake yesterday on the Sports Hub, which made me almost want to call in and yell at him.

First of all, you get Joe Thuney, who looks like he’ll start at left guard for the next decade. Then there’s Malcolm Mitchell who is the most under-the-radar rookie receiver in recent Patriots history. The fact that Mitchell is getting consistent snaps is a major positive sign, even if he’s not putting up much stats. The fact that Jonathan Cooper didn’t really work out doesn’t even affect my view at all.

It should be surprising Jones is doing well in an attacking defense. But he’d be doing different things in New England and I doubt he’d be of much help to a defense that really doesn’t need him. We should at least wait until December and maybe not until another year or two before truly deciding a verdict in this trade, but even as things sit today I’d still do it every time.

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Patriots Offensive Line Review: Week 1

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The worst thing that could have happened prior to playing week one was an injury of any type to Nate Solder. The $6 million dollar left tackle was unavailable due to a suspected hamstring injury. This unforeseen situation would mean that several young offensive lineman would be called upon to perform well immediately against the Cardinals. Sebastian Vollmer is likely out of the season and it appears that Belichick will ride out the year with Waddle and Fleming as his depth tackles.

It certainly didn’t appear that the outlook was promising for the Patriots in pregame. News broke that Rob Gronkowski would not play Sunday. His skills as a blocker would be sorely missed, especially with a new quarterback under center. Shaq Mason had a broken hand but played with a club. This is certainly a testament to his toughness as a player.

Snaps

There would be a total of 71 offensive snaps in the unbelievable victory against Arizona. Four lineman stepped up and played every single down week one: Cam Fleming, Joe Thuney, David Andrews, and Marcus Cannon. Rookie Ted Karras and Shaq Mason saw less reps in the game. Karras totaled 57 plays and Mason 14.

The Patriots pulled it off with a solid performance from their offensive line. Fleming, Thuney, and Karras have never seen/had limited NFL reps. Shaq Mason and David Andrews are both second year players. The only veteran on the line was last season’s biggest disappointment in the trenches: Marcus Cannon.

The concern before this past game centered around giving the rookie quarterback an early boost of confidence. Belichick kept the pocket moving through play action and a variety of misdirection plays centered around Julian Edelman. This helped to keep the edge rushers honest and eliminated some of the pocket pressure. They also lined up in heavy sets and ran the ball consistently to keep Arizona honest. This opened up longer plays downfield like the 37 yard heave to Chris Hogan.

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Patriots-Saints: Offensive Line Film Review

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As part of this film review I will look at every single offensive play from the first preseason game. The ultimate goal is to highlight some of the accomplishments, failures, and features of the Patriots offensive line play during the game. We’ll also take a peek at some of the rotation details and grade their overall play.

-Joe Thuney played an outstanding game

–Nate Solder looked terrible early, improved as game went on

–Marcus Cannon was surprisingly good, one of most consistent lineman in this game. I was shocked.

–Shaq Mason looked pretty bad throughout the entire game. He wasn’t technically sound and made mental errors. Very disappointed.

-Andrews and Stork were both pretty strong. Andrews was probably slightly better.

–Josh Kline was solid playing both tackle and guard in the first preseason game

-Waddle was slightly better than Fleming, but neither were very impressive

-It’s evident that Barker feels more comfortable at guard than tackle

–Ted Karras was okay. Good to see that he can play center as well as guard.

-Not enough playing time to judge Halapio, Kerbyson, Milton.

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Hello Injuries: Patriots Wounded in the Trenches

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Bright Spots

The first day of camp was extra special for Patriots left tackle Nate Solder. It was the first time he was able to share a football field with his son Hudson. Both father and son have battled extensive health issues in the last year. Seeing Dad in uniform and Hudson present certainly made the first day of practice special.

Another long time Patriot reappeared out of retirement in hope of improving the offensive line. Dante Scarnecchia is back and he brings extensive coaching experience in the trenches. There will be some tight position battles and Scar will be in charge of improving the unit that protects Brady.

Rookie offensive guard Joe Thuney has come into camp and captured attention immediately.  Jeff Howe and other members of the media cited his strength engaged with defensive opponents and his finish on every play. Since Thuney is a strong fundamental offensive lineman he can potentially work on playing tackle in addition to guard. Many suspect that is already the plan.

First Impressions

The first offensive line group consisted of Solder-Thuney-Stork-Cooper-Cannon. During camp these starting groups are subject to change every day. There will be injuries and various reasons that cause the first group to fluctuate.

Joe Thuney and Jonathan Cooper are favorites to win the starting guard job according to some Patriots analysts. Sebastian Vollmer and Nate Solder as expected to return to their starting roles at tackle. The center position is up for grabs between David Andrews and Bryan Stork.

 

Tackle Health

The main positional weakness of the offensive line in 2015 still remains; it’s not injury. It’s the tackles that protect the edge of Brady’s pocket.

Nate Solder has returned to practice. Sebastian Vollmer has not. Solder tore his biceps in week five of this past year and was placed on the season ending IR. It appears that the big money tackle has recovered from his injury. Solder’s cap hit in 2016 is $10,322,666.

Sebastian Vollmer’s situation is concerning. At age 32, Vollmer has opened camp on the PUP list. If he is not activated by the end of camp, Vollmer misses the first six weeks of the season. The right tackle enters 2016 on the last year of his contract with a cap hit totaling $5,208,334. There is no heir apparent at right tackle. It is unlikely Vollmer is resigned in New England at his age.

Marcus Cannon returns after a highly criticized campaign in 2015. He was simply ineffective throughout his season. If Thuney cannot capture a starting guard role, it’s very possible that he beats out Cannon as the swing tackle.

Cameron Fleming, LaAdrian Waddle, Keavon Milton, and Kerbyson Kyler are also listed as tackles for the start of camp. Fleming and Waddle will battle on the bubble with Cannon. Fleming offers more cap flexibility than Cannon ($4,100,000 lower) and has played both sides of the line.

The Patriots will likely only keep a total of three tackles on their active roster. Solder and Vollmer are locks if healthy. The battle for third will likely feature Cannon, Waddle, and Fleming. Milton and Kyler appear to be long shots.

Strength at Center

One of the most interesting position battles of the offensive line is likely at center. Bryan Stork and David Andrews have both been outstanding in the majority of their starts. There has been mixed signals so far as to who would take over reigns when both players were healthy.

Stork’s health appears to be hindering his ability to battle for the position. Andrews returned to Patriots camp and captured the off-season conditioning award from the coaching staff. His play has also been strong since Stork dropped due to an unspecified issue or injury in an early practice.

At some point the Patriots will have to make a decision at this position. Right now it appears the goalposts are narrowing with Stork’s absence. Andrews is taking all of the work with the ones, putting in the dirty work as Stork continues to miss time.

Crowded, Injury Riddled Group of Guards

As mentioned before, Thuney and Cooper were mentioned as favorites to win a starting guard role. There are several other guards battling for the position including Shaq Mason, Tre’ Jackson, Josh Kline, Ted Karras, Chris Barker, and Jon Halapio.

Usually a team only keeps nine offensive linemen on a game day roster; right now the Patriots have nine offensive guards in camp. Thuney, Cooper, Kline, Jackson, Mason are the linemen with the highest probabilities of landing on the roster.

The hype for Jonathan Cooper would not last long. He would be carted off with a right foot injury in one of the first practices. Cooper is apparently battling plantar fasciitis. This situation may be related to his condition according to Ian Rapoport. Cooper was a high draft pick and has experienced an injury riddled and disappointing career. He was acquired in the deal that sent Chandler Jones to the Cardinals. If he cannot get back to health his career may come to a premature end.

When Cooper dropped out due to injury rookie Ted Karras was promoted to the first offensive line group. In my draft analysis Karras appeared to be a lineman who needed a season of practice squad work. He is a tough player but not yet fundamentally sound. Much like any other NFL rookie at this point.

Shaq Mason and Josh Kline have not been cleared to participate in team drills. Both are recovering from injuries from this past year. Mason battled through a knee injury in October 2015.  Kline had shoulder surgery during the off-season and Jeff Howe reported it was, “unclear when he’ll be ready to practice”. Tre’ Jackson is also still on the PUP due to injuries from last season. This leaves a total of four guards unavailable to Scarnecchia.

The Walking Wounded

When a rookie guard is your standout offensive lineman in the early days of camp it’s a testament to where the position group is as a whole. With or without Dante Scarnecchia, this group still has work to do. Kline, Mason, Jackson, Stork, Vollmer, and Cooper are not cleared as full participants for practice. This leaves two rookie guards (Thuney, Karras) playing on the first offensive line group.

Pretty much an offensive line coaches’ worst nightmare early in camp. When the group is low on bodies, more stress weighs down on the healthy players. They battle more and more in camp, and are susceptible to wear and tear.

Right now Scarnecchia is at least getting the chance to evaluate his young players. With a mass of linemen out due to injury it forces the young guys into the spotlight early in their careers. It appears Joe Thuney gets the picture. He’s played hard right through the whistle in every practice.

The Bottom Line

It’s simply too early to judge much of the play through this point in camp. Some Patriots lineman still haven’t returned from last season’s injuries.

Nate Solder appears to be the only definite starter on the offensive line. It’d be a shock if Vollmer isn’t the bookend on the right side of Brady’s pocket. Cam Fleming, Marcus Cannon, and LaAdrian Waddle battle for a third roster spot.

Guard is a mess but returning Patriots veterans should have the upper hand over Jonathan Cooper. He is already out due to injury and Josh Kline and Shaq Mason are close to returning. Rookie Ted Karras should be bumped back down in the rotation immediately. Joe Thuney has likely given himself a shot to remain with the ones due to his strong, passionate play on the line. Tre’ Jackson will also return at some point and provide further depth at the position.

It might be better for the Patriots long term if Thuney doesn’t win a starting job at guard. It would give him the opportunity to work at Tackle and potentially allow the Patriots to release Marcus Cannon. Thuney’s strong play could provide roster flexibility further down the line.

The job at center is highly contested. Right now it’s a one man job due to unspecified reasons. Bryan Stork left practice in an earlier season and hasn’t appeared since. David Andrews has been strong at center and could win the job. Stork’s injuries have begun to add up.

My early guess for the first group is Solder-Mason-Andrews-Jackson-Vollmer.

Patriots Rookie Eyeball Test

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Ty Law Super BowlAlmost every year since I started blogging the Patriots I’ve done a rookie eyeball test when the rookie numbers and helmet/facemask choices were finally revealed. This is purely superficial, but as someone who was always obsessed with “look good, play good”, I find it incredibly relevant.

Some guys just don’t look the part – their number doesn’t fit their position or it’s got bad juju (like 17 on the Pats) or their helmet doesn’t fit quite right or they have an unorthodox facemask choice that doesn’t fit their position. Yes, the meaningless options are endless.

As pics started to leak out from rookie minicamp here’s a review of those I could identify from the first batch of pics that Patriots.com released today:

 

Cyrus Jones: #24

First, I love the choice of #24 and was there really any other option for Jones if he considers himself a legit professional cornerback in the National Football League? If he had turned that down for something in the thirties I’d have real concerns about Jones’ long-term viability.

As for his facemask/helmet I’m not totally feeling this right now, and it’s more the helmet because generally this facemask style is the best option for a cornerback. But he’s gone the Josh Boyce route with the helmet and it’s riding just a bit too high and tight for me to truly give him an elite cornerback look grade. I’m worried a stiff arm to the facemask will break his face.

Ty Law, a seen above in SB36, is of course the ideal.

Grade: A-


Malcolm Mitchell #19

I was hoping for #81 with Mitchell but am fine with the consolation choice of #19, which was my own number in high school (hockey, but still). As for the helmet, I’m a little deer-in-headlights at the moment because he looks so friggin’ much like Aaron Dobson.

Though these new helmets are safer and seem to have good range of vision, I just can’t give a receiver an elite grade when they’re wearing this. While his college look was similar, it had some extra bars that took the Dobson feel of it all out of the equation. Maybe we can talk him into going back to that? There’s still plenty of time for a change.

Still, dude looks pretty solid and I’m excited to see what he can do.

Grade: B

 

Jacoby Brissett #7

Was hoping Brissett might go with #9 but #7 will do, it’s sure better than #13 or, Hoodie forbid, #1. This was the same helmet/facemask combination that he went with in college and I’m a little more accepting of this style for a QB than I am for a receiver like Mitchell.

Of course, in a perfect world he’d go with the Brady look, the queen mother of quarterback helmet/facemask looks, but I think the young guys might be scared off of that helmet because concussions or something.

Brady is the standard-bearer for all-time QB looks, not only with his number 12, but with the perfect loose-fitting helmet. That’s probably my biggest problem with bad helmet looks, when they’re too tight and ride too high on their head. Brissett looks pretty good here without much rookie high-hat.

Not perfect, but I’m intrigued.

Grade: A-

 

Joe Thuney #62

Hey look, it’s Ryan Wendell. Just kidding, it’s everyone’s favorite new genius offensive linemen Joe Thuney. Okay, nothing against Thuney here but I’m not feeling this facemask for an offensive lineman, like at all. It’s too short. You’re gonna get popped in the chin, bro.

Logan Mankins is my standard-bearer for interior offensive linemen looks. And if we’re really getting picky I’d far prefer the old Matt Light/Dan Koppen look more than anything. There’s just nothing to get excited about here, not the number nor the questionable choice in facemask. Thuney has work to do to crawl out of the boring, average look category. I’m sure he cares very much about this and will respond accordingly.

Grade: C

 

Not Ted Karras #64

Saving Thuney is Not Ted Karras, who I thought was Ted Karras before getting corrected because most of the rookies haven’t been officially designated on Patriots.com yet and apparently this guy’s got a tattoo that Karras doesn’t have so here we are.

But it doesn’t really matter, whoever this guy is it’s not what I’m looking for. Now body-wise there’s a lot to like about Not Karras but WHAT. IS. THIS. FACEMASK? No no no no. This cannot stand.

A couple years ago Brandon Bolden tried to rock one of these weird new facemasks and I haven’t forgiven him since even though he abandoned it. Not Karras is probably some guy in for a tryout that we don’t know and probably never will.

Grade: D

Patriots 2016 Draft Wrap

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My favorite time of the draft season is here! No longer are we looking at hundreds of players who might possibly, but probably not, end up on the Patriots. Nope, now we know who the Pats have and can dive in on those players and how they fit.

This was my worst draft performance of my six seasons putting together a big board and mock drafting. Cyrus Jones was the only player I had on my 50 prospect big board and for the first time, I got zero guys in my mock draft. However I don’t think I was alone. This draft seemed especially filled with lesser-discussed players.

Really, by the end, I think almost all Pats draft pundits (except Mike Reiss, who was dead on with a couple of the “who’s that??” guys) were all targeting the same guys and thus we were all way off. But none of that really matters so let’s jump in and take a big picture look at what the Pats did over the last three days.

The headline for me is that they didn’t take a running back. I thought of all the positions of need, running back was the one that they had to take. So of course they didn’t touch any of the guys that we connected them to, even when they were right there for the taking. Worst of all, many of those guys went to direct rivals, like Devontae Booker to the Broncos, Jonathan Williams to the Bills and Kenneth Dixon to the Ravens.

So now it looks like Tyler Gaffney and Donald Brown must show something because entering the season with only Dion Lewis, James White and LeGarrette Blount as backs who can make an impact is scary. My priority this offseason was to re-make the running back position and the Pats have barely touched it.

Of course, if Dion Lewis returns and stays healthy they’ll be fine. But that’s a big if, and it’s hard to count on a player who, aside from an electric start to 2015, hasn’t done much else.

The other big area of need I felt had to be addressed was offensive tackle, where they had to plan for 2017. We don’t know for sure if it was addressed but it would seem that it wasn’t. The question mark is Joe Thuney who has played every position on the line but generally, due to his size, would seem a better fit inside.

Bill Belichick pointed out in his press conference that there were similar questions with Matt Light‘s size and he worked out fine at left tackle, but if Thuney does end up inside the Pats have a log jam of guards and centers and will likely have to cut a player or two that played significant snaps for them last year, while tackle depth remains thin.

Outside of those two concerns, there’s still plenty to love about the players the Pats selected.

I’m most excited about Cyrus Jones and Malcolm Mitchell. In watching their film, it’s clear they fit what the Patriots do extremely well. I wouldn’t say Jones is just a slot corner, though that’s probably where he will start. He’s a smart, quick man-coverage player who has the tenacity to play against bigger receivers. And his punt return vision is unique and exciting.

Watch Mitchell’s film and you’ll see him running many of the same routes we saw out of Brandon LaFell last season — outside comebacks, digs, etc. It’s clear that he’s already done a lot of what the Patriots ask of their primary X receiver and he should combine with Chris Hogan to give the Pats two new outside options that should take some heat off of the middle of the field. Aaron Dobson has a tough road ahead to make the roster with these two in the mix.

The final four picks were all interesting flyers — S/LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, LB Elandon Roberts, G Ted Karras and WR Devin Lucian (who seems like a poor man’s version of everyone’s favorite Patriots prospect Sterling Shepard). Karras was the one player who was on my radar early in the process, but of course I discounted him because I thought we were so stacked at guard. But he certainly fits the mold of our favorite kind of maulers.

I’ve really enjoyed getting to know quarterback Jacoby Brissett too. Yes, I still like Jimmy Garoppolo, and we think Brady still has a few years left, but injuries can derail anyone in the blink of an eye. Having two young promising quarterbacks is a huge bonus and the Pats are smart to keep the pipeline strong should anything unforeseen happen to Brady.

Brissett is a lot of fun to watch with sneaky athleticism that doesn’t jump off the screen, only makes him seemingly impossible to tackle in the open field, with subtle moves that always seem to pick up first downs. He has good touch in the short passing game and processes defenses, knowing where to go with the ball. It will be fun to watch him and Garoppolo this summer. Plus he’s extremely tough to bring down, showing good playing strength.

Another draft has come and gone. I certainly feel excited that Jones and Mitchell will contribute to the 2016 team, but as for the rest it’s going to be a process to see who can do what. My concerns about lacking an early-down pounder at running back and having the same tackle depth that killed us last year are real, but of course, there could still be moves to come before the season-opener. We’ll just have to trust the process until then.

But let’s remember, at the top, this is one of the best rosters in the NFL and if they aren’t ravished by injuries, especially in a couple key spots, they certainly have the talent to once again make a Super Bowl run.

Here’s the current depth chart. Thanks to Mike Loyko and James Christensen of NEPatriotsDraft.com for tracking all the undrafted rookie signings.

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