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Film Review: Patriots Offense and Defense Sucksonville Edition

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Nothing like an emotionless deep dive into the All-22 to give you a nice football reminder how scary it can look when even good teams play bad. I left my film review with a near-exact feeling like I had after breaking down the Patriots loss to the Chiefs in 2014. This is what happens when everyone takes turns making bad mistakes until things are just totally unraveled. Add in a talented young team playing a near-perfect game, making miraculous plays in heavy heat and it’s recipe for disaster.

And that’s what this loss was. But it was still just one loss in week two under extreme conditions. What we see in Detroit will be far more toward the center of who this team is. There might still be issues but no defense can play this perfectly bad two weeks in a row, especially a Patriots defense.

Flip just a couple plays and this is a ball game in the fourth quarter. But that doesn’t mean the Patriots don’t have issues to fix. Getting Josh Gordon this week proved that. But is it time to dip into the rookies at cornerback? At least there are options, whereas we’re all just holding our breath hoping Dont’a Hightower gets through the season on his knee.

More on that and everything else in the film review.

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Can We Be Excited About 2018 Patriots Now?

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The Patriots’ preseason win over the Eagles was a different viewing experience for me as I got tied up down the cape on a beautiful and perfect day and had to listen to the first half in the car on the way home. I actually kind of enjoyed it. Obviously, Dan Roche and Matt Chatham know their stuff and are fun to listen to but it was also a bit of a throwback to the old days when catching a Patriots game didn’t always trump everything else. You’d tune into Gino and Gil as you ran your Sunday errands and the Pats *most likely* got toasted.

There was also no way to consume any kind of social media or worry about blogs, it’s was just old school football consumption and from the sounds of it, it was a bit of an old school win. Of course, I started re-watching the game as soon as I got home, eager to see how many of the impressive plays I’d heard actually looked, and it was every bit as delightful as it sounded.

Yes, I’m excited the defense was so disruptive, but let’s also remember that this was a far cry from that fearless gameplan offense we saw from the Eagles the last time these two teams met in Minnesota. The good news is that we can still feel good, and you can bet your five Super Bowl rings that Eagles fans definitely feel pretty miserable about being 0-2 in the preseason.

It feels like it will be hard for even the most negative Patriots fans to piss and moan about this one, which could possibly mean that the local narrative will become one that is excited about this Patriots team, instead of gleefully awaiting an internal soap opera to destroy the entire franchise from within.

But I’m sure they’ll do their best to keep fans angry and calling in about their trash takes.

Here are my rapid-fire notes on a preseason game that felt like it announced the 2018 Patriots’ presence.

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Video: Patriots Training Camp Practice #4 Report

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Another great time getting a behind-the-scenes glimpse courtesy of the Patriots today. This will be my only time playing a real journalist this training camp but I still plan to hit up a few practices from the fan stands, where I’m more comfortable anyway and am still able to see just as much as from the sun-baked hill in front of the media tent.

Anyway, here’s a few things I left out from the video, while also expanding a bit on some of the five main takeaways.

— Berrios is stocky but reps are really limited for him right now.

— Patterson made another tough catch today, he’s making one per day now and earning trust. He’ll be a valuable player and the Pats are using him in a variety of ways on offense. He took some punts after practice and they were ugly.

— Brett Bielema is an active voice that stands out. I heard him often yelling coaching points to Jomal Wiltz for whatever that is worth. Wiltz did have a nice pass break up on Chris Hogan but has otherwise been quiet. Bielema’s presence is noticeable, especially to former Arkansas players like Trey Flowers and Dietrich Wise I’m sure.

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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Running Back

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The Patriots ground game jumped from 17th in the rushing DVOA in 2016 all the way to third in 2017, good enough for their third-best ranking since 2000. But with leading rusher Dion Lewis gone to Tennesee, the Patriots will be looking to re-adjust their backfield, with first-round pick Sony Michel the centerpiece.

Despite the impressive season from the running backs, I felt like the Patriots went away from what worked best for them in the playoffs. In games where they gave Lewis the ball 10-plus times the team was 10-0, with a 15.6 average point margin of victory. That was on display against the Titans in the first round of the playoffs, but Lewis would get just nine carries against the Jags and Eagles in the last two playoff games.

I know it’s hard to complain when you put up as much yardage in the Super Bowl as the Patriots did, but they also lost the time of possession battle by 10 minutes and were 2-4 in the red zone. Lewis was second on the team in red zone touchdowns. For as much attention as Malcolm Butler draws in criticism of usage, I’d put Lewis up there as well.

But alas, Lewis is gone and the Pats will have to figure out who’s up next. They have a bunch of interesting options, but Michel’s ceiling could determine if this ground game can remain atop the league rankings in 2018.

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Lamenting Dion Lewis’ Reduced Super Bowl Role

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Can you really complain about the Patriots’ offense in the Super Bowl when they put up 613 yards of offense and 33 points? The defense has correctly gotten the bulk of the blame from the 41-33 track meet, while Tom Brady has gotten deserved praise for an epic performance in a losing effort.

But I can’t help but wonder if the game might’ve unfolded differently had the Patriots first three drives stalled without touchdowns. A field goal, missed field goal then turnover on downs was far from an ideal start. The Patriots came out featuring James White in what is their passing package. They tried to open games like this quite a few times this season and almost every time the offense stalled until Dion Lewis was inserted and suddenly they started really moving the ball and scoring.

In my Super Bowl gameplan I had hoped Lewis would be the MVP of the game. He was the sneaky MVP of the season, but had just nine touches in the biggest game, a far cry from the 15-carry/three pass target average he had over the final 11 games of the regular season. In the first two playoff games he had 15 attempts/10 targets (TEN), and nine attempts/eight pass targets (JAX).

Overall the nine touches for Lewis was the lowest since Week 5 against Tampa Bay.

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Breaking Down Patriots Run Game Struggles vs. Jags

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In a thrilling comeback victory against the Jaguars, the Patriots advanced to their eight Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era, and are one win away from winning three out of four Super Bowls for a second time in this century alone. The Patriots were forced to rely on Brady’s fourth quarter heroics in a matchup that featured the Jaguars ferocious front seven completely shut down the Patriots run game. Dion Lewis, after averaging 142.3 yards from scrimmage in his past three games, was held to just 34 yards on the ground and 32 through the air. If you take away his 18 yard first down run that sealed the win, Lewis ran for just 16 yards on eight carries (2.0 YPC), a far cry from his season average of 5.0 YPC, which was second in the NFL among running backs.

Almost all of the offense had to come through Brady and the passing game, and while they delivered, the Patriots will need a better effort on the ground 11 days from now against Philadelphia. An interesting pattern that I discovered is that, when the Patriots (not including “runs” by Brady and Hoyer) rushed for 4.4 or more yards per carry in a game, the Patriots were 9-0 this season (including playoffs), and had an average point differential of +15.1 in those games. However, in the nine games when they rushed for less than 4.4 yards per carry, the Patriots were 6-3, and had an average point differential of +5.7. Of course, if there is one quarterback that can overcome a lack of success on the ground, it’s Tom Brady, as he is the only quarterback in NFL history to have a winning record in games in which he is forced to throw 50+ times (19-9, a .667 winning percentage).

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Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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The New England Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday in the AFC Championship, for the right to represent the conference in Super Bowl 52. It’s New England’s seventh-straight conference championship game, trying to win three-of-four Super Bowls for the second time with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Crazy.

This was a weird year in the NFL as the power structure, aside from the Patriots, has mostly been turned over. After years of being a punchline, the Jaguars introduced their fully-healthy defense to the league behind sporadic but effective Blake Bortles, who has played two playoff games of turnover-free football. For all the talk of the Jags’s defense being the only threat, their offense was 5th in points and 6th in yards.

Pats-Jags doesn’t have the same feel as AFC Championships against the Colts, Ravens and Broncos , but the Jaguars have earned the right to become the latest contender to try and knock off Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home in the AFCCG, something only the 2012 Ravens did.

Tom Brady’s apparent thumb injury adds a new level of intrigue, with the Patriots being noticeably feeding the flames. Ryan Hannable summed it up nicely here.

What do the Patriots need to do to beat the Jaguars and get back to the ‘ship? Here’s the gameplan.

 

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