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james develin

Pregame Meal: Make The Teal Squeal

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It’s conference championship Sunday, the day of football I really live for as a football fan. Of course the Super Bowl is the Super Bowl, but it’s also more of an exhibition feel while the championship games take place at home venues packed with home fans and the celebrations are alway a full team party. Yes, we have to get there first and I’m still trying to imagine explaining to summer ’17 Mike how nervous I am that it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars standing between the Pats and SB52.

But here we are… back in this great game for a seventh-straight time. In 2011 it took a miracle ending to avoid overtime with the Ravens. In 2014 and 2016 it was pretty much a cake walk. In 2013 and 2015 the banged up Pats just couldn’t quite get past the Broncos in Denver.

And then there’s 2012. 2012 is the game that scares me just because it was the only time the Pats lost an AFCCG at home. That Ravens team got a perfect outing from Joe Flacco and their defense was at the height of its powers. Everything lined up just right for the Ravens and they dominated the second half. Can this Jags replicate that game? I don’t think so, but they certainly have defensive talent.

The Jags line to victory is clear — don’t turn it over and force Brady into an early mistake that doesn’t allow him to ever get comfortable. Then, maybe then, the Jags can put forth the kind of 60 minutes of fearless and mistake-free football needed to beat the Patriots at home in the AFC Championship. But it’s going to take a special effort and a complete meltdown by the Pats in all three phases.

But let’s be honest, we WANT to be nervous today. What fun would it be if we all just convinced ourselves that this is a pop warner team that the Pats will roll by 40-plus points? So for the next few hours I’ll continue to imagine the perfect Blake Bortles game, a young defense that is all over the Pats right off the snap, while Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are hit in the backfield over and over.

All I know is that I never would’ve predicted the Pats laying a 28-3 egg in the Super Bowl, so who knows, maybe it could just be the Jags day today?

Here’s the gameplan and hoodie prediction in case you missed them.

Alright, I feel like I sufficiently worried myself just enough. Here’s a bunch of other pregame thoughts…

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Patriots Positional Preview: Running Backs

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Today we’re taking a look at the Patriots’ running back corps, one of the most intriguing positions on the roster.

With the departure of LeGarrette Blount, who set a team record with 18 rushing touchdowns, things will look a little different in 2017, but the approach should remain the same. The biggest question is of course, who takes those short yardage carries, especially on the goalline where 11 of Blount’s TDs came from just one yard out.

The favorite to be the early down/early game pounder is Mike Gillislee, a restricted free agent the Pats signed away from the Bills and whose one-cut, hard running style is a perfect fit for what the Pats need. But free agent Rex Burkhead, who saw just 13 carries in his first three seasons with the Bengals before getting his shot in 2016 and putting up 4.6 yards-per-attempt, has size and versatility to take some of those carries as well.

As Pro Football Talk pointed out, Gillislee and Burkhead are football analytics all-stars.

Analytics website FootballOutsiders.com ranked Gillislee as the most efficient running back in the NFL last year, and Burkhead as No. 2. Analytics website NumberFire also had Gillislee first and Burkhead second. Analyst Warren Sharp’s metrics had Gillislee first and Burkhead second in success rate, and Burkhead first and Gillislee second in the fewest “missed yards per attempt,” or how close they came to being successful on the plays that weren’t quite good enough to quality as successful.

No matter how the replacing of Blount shakes out, the Patriots have the entire spectrum covered at running back. James White put up an MVP-caliber performance in the Super Bowl, while Dion Lewis, now a full year removed from tearing his ACL, could return to the electric explosion he showed prominently in early 2015.

With battering ram James Devlin leading the way, and a couple young potential practice squad members, there’s nothing this group lacks.

Let’s take a closer look at each.

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Patriots Begin Team Building

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It hasn’t been flashy but the Patriots have begun building their 2017 squad as the “legal tampering period” opens. The initial moves started with the re-signing of James Develin, who didn’t even need to hit the open market.


Develin is the ultimate game plan piece and if you don’t love having a big fullback on the roster you don’t love football. Belichick loves Develin’s toughness so there’s little surprise the Pats were able to lock up Develin so quickly. Develin played 31 percent of the offensive snaps and 33 percent of the special teams snaps, showing that while he’s not an every down guy he does plenty of the dirty work that wins football games.

The Pats have also started tendering their restricted free agents, with Justin Coleman, Cameron Fleming and Matt Lengel the first to be announced. I’ll keep updating this post as others are announced, including the biggest one, Malcolm Butler, who is almost assured of getting a first-round tender.

Coleman had a promising rookie year but fell off the map in 2016, playing 226 total snaps. But with Logan Ryan likely departing there’s good reason to keep Coleman around. Let’s remember Ryan fell off the map in 2014 after a solid rookie campaign. Coleman could bounce back. He has good physicality and sometimes a year on the bench can help a player grow.

Lengel was acquired after Gronk went down, and ended up playing in six games with two catches, one which went for a touchdown. He adds much needed depth at the tight end position. Most of us seem to agree the Pats should be active in the draft for a tight end, assuming they’ll have to replace Marty Bennett. But Lengel gives them experienced insurance in a blocking role that will be valuable.

Fleming is a good third tackle who also filled in at left tackle last season. He has versatility to play both sides and is a solid depth piece. I’d still love to add another athletic tackle, but keeping Fleming was a no-brainer.

Other restricted free agents to come today: Butler and Brandon King. All should be retained as well.

Patriots Free Agency Rumblings Regroup

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Small bits of news are starting to drip out, most of them courtesy of Jeff Howe who seems to have the most vocal sources on the Patriots beat. Again, I can’t state this enough, this is the season of misinformation so before you overreact to anything it’s important to remember that every bit of news often has a purpose behind it. Whether it’s to drive up a players price or to spark interest around the league, very few pieces of information that make it to the public can be taken at face value.

Here’s what Howe and others most recently broke.

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Patriots Internal Free Agents: Offensive Addition

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Coming off their fifth Super Bowl victory, the New England Patriots are in tremendous shape cap-wise, as they have right around 62 million dollars in cap space heading into the 2017 offseason. This cap room gives the Patriots incredible financial flexibility, and lets Bill Belichick, Nick Caserio, and co be as aggressive as they please in free agency. Of course, the Patriots do have several important free agents of their own that need new contracts, and while the majority of those names fall on the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots still have a couple question marks regarding free agents on the offensive side of the ball. Lets take a look at those notable free agents-to-be.

Martellus Bennett: 

  • Age: 30
  • Projected contract (via Spotrac): 3 years, 18 million (6 million average annual salary)
  • Other notable free agent tight end: Jared Cook, Jack Doyle

In a very weak free agent class at tight end, Bennett’s first priority for this offseason is probably getting paid. This narrative is definitely aided by Bennett’s comments following the Super Bowl, in which he jubilantly declared “You know they overpay Super Bowl Champions!” (he did later clarified on Twitter that he was joking, but I don’t know about that). Another quote from Bennett that is rather indicative of what he is thinking regarding his upcoming free agency is, “You come to New England to win, not for the checks.” The pessimist in me thinks that because Bennett got his ring, he is now looking for the major payday that comes following winning the Super Bowl. While it is impossible to tell where Bennett will end up, it sure seems like he is looking to cash in, and it also seems like the Patriots will not be the team to give him the hefty contract he seeks, despite growing concerns over the long-term health of Rob Gronkowski.

Gronkowski counts nearly 30 million against the cap in the next three seasons, so it is hard to imagine a scenario in which the Patriots dole out a contract with an average annual value of around 6 million dollars to another tight end. That just seems like too high of a price for Gronk insurance, especially when considering the stacked pool of tight ends in the 2017 draft, with players like OJ Howard, David Njoku, and Evan Engram all drawing comparisons to current elite NFL tight ends in Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed.

LeGarrette Blount:

  • Age: 30
  • Projected contract (via Spotrac): 3 years, 13 million (4.4 million average annual salary)
  • Other notable free agent running backs: Leveon Bell, Latavius Murray, Eddie Lacy

Blount is an incredibly interesting case to consider. Last offseason, he essentially had no interest whatsoever on the free agent market, and ended up signing with the Patriots on April 12th, 34 days after free agency opened. The Patriots were able to resign Blount for a base salary of just 1 million, an absolute steal considering the season he had in 2016, in which he led all RB’s in touchdowns and finished 8th in rushing yards in the NFL. Because of his success this season, Blount figures to garner far more interest in free agency this season, but the Patriots will most likely not be one of the teams in pursuit. Combine Blount’s age (30) with the lack of value Belichick places on the running back position in free agency (especially aging backs) and the current backfield situation with both James White and Dion Lewis returning in 2017, and it sure seems like unless Blount is willing to take a rather large pay-cut, his time in New England is done.

James Develin: 

Develin resigned with the Patriots last offseason on a one year deal worth up to 750,000 with incentives, and it seems like a similar, albeit slightly more lucrative, contract should be enough for Develin to remain a Patriot. Currently, there are only 6 fullbacks in the NFL that count more than a million against their team’s salary caps, with the highest paid fullbacks in the league, Anthony Sherman and Ryan Hewitt, earning around 2.3 million in average annual salary. With arguably the three best fullbacks in the league hitting free agency in 2017 (Juszczyk, DiMarco, and Develin), it would not be surprising if those numbers are surpassed, so Develin’s potential contract is probably going to rely mostly on the type of contracts Juszczyk and DiMarco sign. Despite this, it certainly appears likely Develin will end up in New England again because of the importance he has in the Patriots running game.

 

Michael Floyd: 

Floyd has been vocal about his desire to return to New England, saying in the days leading up to the Super Bowl,  “I love it here. I hope to be back in Foxborough. I hope that I can make that happen, for sure.’’ Floyd was inactive for both the Super Bowl and AFC Championship Game due to a crowded depth chart at receiver, with the coaching staff opting for Malcolm Mitchell over Floyd. However, because of the good possibility that Danny Amendola will be cut, seeing as he counts nearly 8 million against the 2017, Floyd might have a spot in the receiving corps in 2017. Floyd has shown his ability to be a productive NFL receiver, as he has racked up at least 800 yards every year since his rookie year (not including this season), highlighted by his 1,041 yard sophomore season. With his value severely diminished due to his DUI arrest, it appears a return to New England for Floyd is likely.

An Appreciation of James Develin

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develin

Well, it was another relatively easy victory for the Patriots despite defensive struggles in the first half. It was good to see the defense, specifically the secondary, rebound a bit in the second half, as they were able to do just enough for the Patriots to coast through the majority of the fourth quarter, giving Brady and Edelman a victorious homecoming.

Brady had another great day, throwing for 280 yards and four touchdowns, but the rushing attack stole the show in my opinion. The Patriots rushed for their highest yards per carry total on the season, averaging 5.7 YPC, and racked up their second-highest yardage total on the ground of the year. A large part of that success was the play of James Develin, who played a season-high 34 snaps and constantly carved out lanes for LeGarrette Blount to run through on the way to his second-highest rushing total thus far in 2016.

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Pats Posits: Let the Free Agency Games Begin!!

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The new league year starts Wednesday, but things are already underway with the “legal tampering period” which should make for a bunch of deals getting into place ahead of time. For the Patriots, the new is starting to finally trickle in with restricted free agent signings.

— James Develin announced that he’s returning to the Pats on a new one-year deal. This likely saved the Pats some money by not having to tender Develin. Now, coming off a broken leg, Develin has a chance to prove he’s back to form and can help re-establish a Patriots ground game that was murdered by attrition in 2014.

— Justin Coleman, coming off an impressive rookie season in the slot, Josh Boyce and tackle Cameron Fleming have been tendered as well. Wasn’t sure if Boyce would be back, but Coleman and Fleming were locks and help round out the depth. Brandon King is also in discussions to return, likely under a tender offer. Rufus Johnson, LaAdrian Waddle and Kevin Hughes are the only RFA/ERFA’s left that we haven’t gotten word about.

— Logan Mankins announced his retirement which once again shows the Pats are usually right on with their “one year early rather than a year late” personnel philosophy. Mankins is one of those all-time Patriots players who somehow managed to have his career span the exact time frame Belichick and Brady went Super Bowl-less, 2005-2013. It’s too bad Mankins never got a ring in New England, but he’s still one of the best maulers of all time. Playing on a torn ACL in 2011’s Super Bowl might just embody everything Mankins stood for in New England.

— The Pats also picked up Rob Gronkowski‘s $10 million option ensuring Gronk stays with the team through 2019, though another extension seems certainly likable at some point in the next couple years, depending on how healthy Gronk stays. He’s missed just two games the last two seasons, if he keeps up that pace he’ll own pretty much every tight end record in the books.

— Eric Weddle thinks he’d be a good fit with the Pats and as much as I love the player it’s hard to see how he’d fit in New England with Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon, with Jordan Richards also in the mix. Yes of course Weddle and McCourty would be probably the best safety combo in the league, but they’re not paying Chung to sit on the bench at this point, so I really don’t see it happening.