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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

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New England Patriots football is finally back and which also means I’m back with my gameplan articles (CHECK OUT LAST SEASON’S HERE).  The first game of the season is always pretty ugly and there are plenty of unknown elements that cannot be predicted. That’s what makes it fun and scary.

Missed tackles, blown assignments, and just a general lack of rhythm tend to always be present in week one, and often into weeks two and three as well.

Complicating matters is how the Patriots love to experiment in the early part of the season. Throwing random guys into random roles to see how they do and if they flash any potential.

So what we’re left with is hoping the Pats can hang on to the ball and stay frosty no matter how up and down their performance is. 

Here’s the gameplan…

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Offensive Gameplan

Let’s start at the areas of uncertainty headed into this first game. The biggest one is along the interior of the offensive line where Bryan Stork will be out with a concussion. So what does that leave the Pats with? Maybe Mason-Wendell-Jackson. Maybe Kline-Wendell-Jackson. Or maybe, as Greg Bedard said on Felger and Mazz Wendell-Andrews-Jackson. Any way you slice it, there’s at least one rookie in there and very possibly two and that’s a major area of concern. Personally I’d go the veteran route with Kline and Wendell.

Second comes the weaponry and what combination they’ll go with. LaFell is out, so that means you’re looking at Dobson or Amendola starting with Edelman. I’d expect a rotation of the two. Mostly I just want to see them unleash the Twin Towers of Gronk and Chandler, because that should give the Steelers a ton of problems. 

This isn’t the Steel Curtain anymore, their pass defense has been getting lit up since last year.

Then we look in the backfield, where they’ll likely give Brandon Bolden some action to start but expect Dion Lewis to be the guy who gets a lot of touches early on. Or could they unleash Travaris Cadet, who is fully healthy but played zero preseason games. He’s unique, more of a receiver than running back and I think the Pats have something special planned with him. Might be a week or two too early for Cadet, but he’ll have a big game in September.

The Pats liked to spread out LeBeau Steeler defense, will anything change now on either end? Because the Pats have pretty much had their way with the Steelers defense almost every time Brady’s faced them.

With the release of Jonas Gray and no LeGarrette Blount, it’s a good bet the Pats are going to throw the ball 50 times in this one. The quick throws should limit the pressure put on the interior offensive line, so expect Edelman and Amendola to play a big part in those throws. Pass protection from the inexperienced running backs will be a big factor.

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Defensive Gameplan

Oh, am I excited to see this defense take the field! It’s just become more and more clear with each week how many different things this defense can merge into. Their front seven is dripping with athleticism and nearly impossible to decode at the line of scrimmage. Who’s two-gapping? Who’s blitzing? Who’s dropping? Who knows. And each player presents a unique problem whether you’ve got to block them or outrun them.

So the big question here in week one is predicting what they WILL do. Antonio Brown has to be the first focus and with Matavis Bryant out, there should be extra man power to deal with him. But you’d think Malcolm Butler with occasional safety help makes the most sense.

This is a good game to get a sense of the man/zone balance the Patriots will play this season. Expect some of the Nick Saban-esque zone on early downs, man on third down unless it’s long.

The biggest thing for this defense is winning one-on-one matchups. That’s what the Patriots defense hasn’t been able to consistently do since 2007, but now they have the pieces where they better start doing it. They have the size guys to eat up two blocks, but that puts the pressure on players like Easley/Hightower/Collins/Chandler/etc. to beat their single blocker. That’s what makes a great team pass rush.

Expect a healthy rotation of all four defensive tackles and don’t be surprised to see Ninkovich come off the field in passing situations for a front like Sheard-Easley-Chandler-Hightower, with Mayo and Collins at the linebacker spots.

Most critical to the defense is tackling. They haven’t been doing a lot of it before now but if they can consistently wrap and tackle they’ll force mistakes.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Play clean – Making tackles and not turning the ball over is usually 75 percent of winning but in week one it’s closer to 90 percent. There will be ugly plays. Brady’s gonna get sacked. Roethlisberger will hit a long pass. None of it will matter if they just don’t make the last critical mistake. 

2. Get Gronk’d – We can talk for hours about all the different things the Patriots might try to do, but the only one that really matters is getting Rob Gronkowski involved. He’s the best offensive player on the team now and getting the ball in his hands as much as possible will only help open up all other avenues of attack. Most interesting will be to see how Scott Chandler compliments Gronk and stresses the defensive coverages.

3. Disguise > Blitzing – Belichick is never a big blitzer, in fact they’ve been blitzing less and less since 2010 and that’s a good thing. The ideal is to win with four rushers and if you can do that consistently, you’ve got a great defense. One of the holdovers from the old 3-4 scheme they used to use more frequently, is the ability to disguise which linebacker is blitzing. The same principal is true and applies to not only the three linebackers, but the two defensive ends as well and sometimes even a defensive tackle. Send Hightower, Mayo, Ninkovich, Collins, Chandler, Sheard, Flowers, Easley after Roethlisberger at random times. Never let the Steelers get a bead on who the main rushers all. Keep them guessing and take advantage of the overall athleticism on the defense.

4. Contain and Tackle Roethlisberger – We’ve heard it plenty of times from Belichick that you must keep Roethlisberger contained in the pocket and then you must finish him off when you get hands on him. This isn’t easy of course but explosive plays happen when Ben is able to get out of the pocket and create after initial contact.

5. Win – With ten days before the next game in Buffalo and a late bye, getting a win and then a couple extra days off should do a lot of good for this team on a number of levels. The roster can then also be re-jiggered a bit as their current personnel seems directly aimed at Pittsburgh. Conference victories are always valuable in the grand scheme of things and knocking of a respectable Steelers team is just the sort of win that will put Deflategate and (unfortunately) the Super Bowl win truly behind the Patriots and focus them on 2015.

Patriots Gameplan: Super Bowl vs. Seattle Seahawks

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It all comes down to this as the New England Patriots face the Seattle Seahawks in Glendale, Arizona for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy of Super Bowl 49. Good luck if you’re still looking for tickets for Super Bowl 49!

It’s been a full season of gameplans, and now there’s just one team to focus on. Despite this week’s distractions, the Seahawks pose a strong challenge for the Patriots – one that will test many of their weaknesses.

But with two weeks to prepare, there is no better coach that Bill Belichick and if the Patriots can execute the game plan that Belichick lays out, they’ll have a very strong chance of winning.

Here’s what I think they need to do.

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Offensive Gameplan

We can take a look back to the 2012 matchup between these two teams to get a little bit of a sense how they might attack each other. As I laid out last week, the Patriots had plenty of success moving the ball, but their 1-6 performance in the red zone, including an end zone interception, was the difference.

The Seahawks are an excellent defense, but they are not a complex one. As Eric Mangini once said of Brady “if he knows it goes”, and that’s why the Patriots should feel comfortable with how to attack the Seahawks defense.

Executing and matching their physicality will be the challenges, but the Patriots are not a team that is often bullied on either side of the ball. They’ll take some licks and they’ll give some licks.

The 2012 attack was centered heavily on attacking the center of the field, the Pats’ bread and butter, and there’s no reason to think they’ll get away from that.

While some have called Rob Gronkowski the key player of the game, I believe it could be Julian Edelman, especially if he’s able to matchup in the slot against Jeremy Lane.

The physicality of Brandon LaFell on the outside is just what you want against the Seahawks’ corners. He should see plenty of Byron Maxwell. Given Brady’s strength throwing the ball to his left, LaFell could have a chance to shine as well.

A healthy Gronkowski is always an X-factor especially in the red zone. How the Seahawks choose to match Gronkowski will be one of the most interesting points to monitor as the game unfolds.

The Seahawks have given up over 130 yards rushing in each of their two playoff games so there’s good reason to stay balanced with LeGarrette Blount. If Blount gets rolling it could help the Patriots be far more balanced than they’ve been in the last two Super Bowls.

The Patriots must challenge Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas given their injuries. Tight formations that run to Sherman’s side would be a good way to test out his tackling with his injured elbow. 

But most important is protecting Tom Brady up the middle. That’s where their gameplans were destroyed in the last two Super Bowls, namely by Justin Tuck. This will be a quick passing attack, so the edges are less of a concern.

Michael Bennett slides inside in the Seahawks nickel package, so that could be a concern. The Pats will know where he is at all times, and perhaps running at him in nickel with Shane Vereen will be something to consider.

The Pats received a boost with news on Wednesday that center Bryan Stork should be ready to go. Stork, Dan Connolly and Ryan Wendell must play well. There’s no quicker way for things to unravel than if that trio is getting beat early and often.

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Defensive Gameplan

This is the best secondary the Patriots have entered a Super Bowl with, at least since 2003. The Seahawks passing attack is fairly easy to decipher and the Pats match up well with them.

Conventional thinking is Darrelle Revis will take Doug Baldwin, while Brandon Browner will take the bigger deep threat in Jermaine Kearse. Kyle Arrington should see Ricardo Lockette in the slot, while Patrick Chung should get the majority of the coverage against tight end Luke Willson.

Of course, the Patriots will not be predictable and these coverages will shift at times, but in the important moments, those will likely be who’s covering who.

The problem for the Patriots will be Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson, for a variety of reasons. Lynch has had limited success against the Patriots (averages for 5 career games vs. Pats: 14 carries, 53 yards, 3.79 YPC. Never broken 100 yards), though that doesn’t mean much in a one game situation.

The read option and Russell Wilson’s mobility are two things the Patriots must concern themselves with. This area has been extensively covered this week because it’s obvious. 

I believe the best route is to force the ball to Lynch and take away Wilson’s outside scrambles at all costs. Let Wilfork, Siliga and Branch stop Lynch.

Wilson’s bootlegs are another big concern as well so the focus for the edge players to maintain integrity is vital.

Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich must remain disciplined in their pass rush, while Vince Wilfork, Sealver Siliga and Alan Branch must maintain gap discipline. It’s likely Wilfork won’t try to overcommit to his pass rush and instead hold the top of the pocket to contain Wilson.

There are a number of ways the Pats can go to spy Wilson as well, with most thinking Jamie Collins is a good fit for the job, while Dont’a Hightower covers Lynch on passing routes.

Lynch was the third-leading receiver for the Seahawks this year, so Hightower’s work in coverage is critical. Hightower has the size and enough maneuverability that he’s a pretty good matchup.

Trusting that the secondary can take away the quick throws and buy them time for a slow pass rush is critical, especially on third down. If the Pats can’t keep Wilson in the pocket their entire gameplan will start to breakdown as receivers uncover downfield and Wilson scrambles for critical yardage.

Stopping Lynch on straight-forward run plays is only the beginning. Seattle’s misdirection and ability to extend plays must be snuffed out to stop them.

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Points of Emphasis

1. Keep Wilson in the Pocket – Whether they spy him with a linebacker or just “mush rush” him, stopping Wilson from making big plays on the ground is a huge priority. No quarterback is better at making plays after things break down, so being patient is key, especially when the initial timing of the play is stopped. If Wilson is forced to stay in the pocket and throw the ball, the Patriots will have taken away a major piece of what makes the Seahawks go. This of course goes hand in hand with…

2. Gang Tackle Lynch – The defensive tackles must wrap and tackle Lynch, because he lives of yards-after-contact. The Patriots have been pretty good at this in the past with Lynch but that will mean little on Sunday. Alan Branch knows firsthand from his time in Seattle what it’s like to see Lynch on a daily basis and his presence should help. If Chandler/Ninkovich/Collins form a triangle trap to contain Wilson, it will be up to the Wilfork/Siliga/Hightower/Chung to hold  Lynch in check.

3. Protect Brady Up The Middle – This is the Super Bowl credo. Don’t let the interior rushers throw off the quick-passes. Michael Bennett is certainly one player to be concerned with, but the offensive line will need their best game of the season if the Pats are going to get the job done. 

4. 60 Minutes- Everyone one of the five Super Bowls Brady and Belichick have gone to have gone down to the final possession and is there really any reason to think this one would be any different? There’s no question these are the two best teams in football and the one who makes the fewest mistakes and puts together the best game on this particular day

5. Win – The Patriots will feel things out early, testing how the Seahawks want to play them. As Michael Lombardi once said, the start of the game is a race for Belichick to see how you want to play them. An early three-and-out or sustained Seahawks drive is not cause for major concern, though a fast start would be nice, and it’s something the Pats have lacked in the last two Super Bowls. What matters most is winning no matter how the ups-and-downs of the games go. To see them raise the Lombardi Trophy once again after all the controversies of not only the last two weeks, but of the last seven years, would truly be something special for Patriots fans.

It all comes down to this.

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New England Patriots Game Plan: AFC Championship vs. Colts

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The Patriots are set to take on the Colts for the right to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 49. The conference championships are my favorite games of the season, and with the Pats hosting their third in four years, it doesn’t get much better than this.

The Super Bowl is the big game of course, but its neutral site and over-the-top production give it almost more of an exhibition game feel. These two games on Sunday, with homefield advantage and the elements in full effect, are the two best games of real football in the NFL season.

By now, we’ve heard plenty about how the Patriots have manhandled Andrew Luck in his three games against them, including last year’s AFC Divisional game. In those three games, Luck has six touchdowns and eight interceptions, with a 53.8 completion percentage.

Can New England continue their recent dominance over Luck and the Colts? Or does Indy finally turn the tide? With a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, the stakes don’t get much higher.

Here’s my game plan for the Pats to get back to their sixth Super Bowl in the last 14 seasons.

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Offensive Game Plan

In the last three games agains the Colts, the Patriots have put up 595 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. This includes 201 yards and four touchdowns by Jonas Gray earlier this season and 166 yards and four touchdowns by LeGarrette Blount in last year’s divisional round.

What does this add up to? Until the Colts prove they can stop the run, there’s no reason not to come out pounding the rock at them once again, even if they’ve been much better against it since the Pats last saw them.

The return of Arthur Jones, Chandler’s big brother, should help the run-stopping effort, but it’s still worth testing early on. 

With rainy conditions possible, this will put a huge priority on ball security. So it was no surprise to see Bill Belichick stressing this point earlier this week in practice. Nothing can shift a game quicker than turnovers.

And what if the Colts defense shows up with something to prove against the run, as they probably should? The focus shifts to the passing game where Rob Gronkowski (208 yards on 11 catches, 3 TDs) and Julian Edelman (192 yards on 16 catches and 1 TD) have also been very good against the Colts in the last three games (only two for Gronk, and two and change for Edelman after he last lost after bruising his thigh in Week 11).

The Colts mimicked the Seahawks defensive game plan against the Broncos last week, taking away the medium throws, forcing short passes, which they’d come down hard on, or long throws.

This has been an effective game plan against the Patriots offense in recent years, however the presence of Bradon LaFell and a healthy Gronk no longer makes it ideal. Tom Brady also won’t miss as many throws as Peyton Manning did last week. So the Colts have to pick their poison, and once they do, it’s up to the Pats to force the other down their throat.

The Colts were also the 31st ranked team in Football Outsiders’ DVOA when it came to covering running backs, so perhaps a surprise wrinkle will be some Shane Vereen-centric passing plays.

Defensive Game Plan

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The Patriots were defensively dominant over the Colts earlier this season. Can they do it again, or was that just one of those games where one team was just on fire. I’d expect things to be a bit more balanced this time around.

Holding the Colts to just 19 rushing yards in the first meeting was an impressive effort, but the Colts have found more consistency in their ground game since with Dan Herron, though they still seems far from explosive. Herron also draws concern for his pass-catching ability. Expect a heavy dose of Dont’a Hightower on him.

Coby Fleener was one guy who had some success last time around, finishing with 7 catches for 144 yards. He saw some of Brandon Browner last time, and perhaps that makes sense again on certain downs, or maybe using Devin McCourty would be better as well. Fellow tight end threat Dwayne Allen left the last contest early, so the presence of two tight ends who can catch should be a concern for the Patriots.

The statistical weak link of the Patriots pass coverage has been against tight ends, and with dominant outside corners, Fleener and Allen should be a significant part of the gameplan. Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty and Jamie Collins should draw a fair amount of coverage responsibility on them.

What’s clear is that taking away T.Y. Hilton’s explosive over-the-top plays is priority one. Last time, Hilton had just 24 yards on three catches. Replicating that kind of performance might be a tall task, but Hilton has to be a major focus. That’s why it’s likely he sees a lot of Darrelle Revis in this one. Revis was on Reggie Wayne a good chunk of last game, but Wayne’s deteriorating skills no longer require that kind of attention.

At some point, Andrew Luck is going to play a perfect game against the Pats. Even last week’s win over the Broncos featured two interceptions. The Pats cannot wait on a Luck mistake to give them the game.  But they have a knack for making them happen in the big games, or at least they used to…

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Points of Emphasis

1. Run Until They Stop Us: As mentioned above, the Pats have run wild over the Colts the last three games and until they prove they can stop it, why stop? LeGarrette Blount is now in the mix, which takes away some of the worry of relying on Jonas Gray again in a playoff game, where his ball security worries me. Still Blount can take a bit to get going, so Gray, or even Brandon Bolden could see some carries early. Can the offensive line get it done with Josh Kline in there? That’s a question, but would be a bigger concern if this was going to be a pass-heavy gameplan against some great interior guys. The Pats won’t hesitate to shift to a more pass-heavy approach if the Colts front plays inspired against the run. But until they stop it, run it down their throat. There isn’t a simpler game plan in the world than running at a team who can’t stop it. It drains the clock, opens up the play action game and generally demoralizes a defense. There’s no easier route to victory for New England if their ground game is firing on all cylinders.

2. Nickel Run Defense: The Patriots were in sub defense for most of the first matchup and anytime that is the case, stopping the run with only six in the box is key. With Sealver Siliga and Chandler Jones in the mix after missing the last tilt in Indy, the Pats front looks stronger on paper after playing a mix of Dominique Easley and Chris Jones next to Wilfork. If the Pats start getting gashed in nickel they’ll have to move to a heavier front and that will open them up against the pass. There’s little doubt the Pats best personnel is from the nickel defense. The more they can stay in that, the better off they’ll be. Of course, spying Luck on third downs should be another consideration.

3. Hold Onto the Ball: It was shocking and disgusting that the Patriots put the ball on the turf TWICE in the early going last week against the Ravens. That cannot happen this week, especially with a run-heavy approach. Nothing made me happier than to hear Belichick was out on the practice field trying to pry the ball loose himself this week. We saw last week how quickly a bad turnover can shift the scoreboard. Ball protection is huge.

4. Finish:  The final score of the previous matchup this year skews things a bit, but it was a 28-20 game in the fourth quarter before the Pats pulled away. The Colts have plenty of recent history of great and seemingly impossible comebacks. This one won’t be over until it’s over and the Pats cannot get overconfident that they’re rolling to another blowout, even if they get a double-digit lead. 60 minutes to get to the Super Bowl. They’ll need their best effort for the entire length of the game.

5. Win: The Patriots are one game from the Super Bowl, a spot they’ve been in, and underperformed in two of the last three seasons. And even the one AFC Championship they did win, they were generally outplayed. It’s time for the Patriots to put together a dominant AFC Championship game of great football. They’re the better team on paper, but they have to prove it on the field. If they play with that kind of chip on their shoulder, there’s no reason why they shouldn’t be headed to Arizona for a shot at ring number four. 

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New England Patriots Game Plan: Week 15 vs. Miami Dolphins

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Sunday is a “hat and t-shirt game”, what more is there to say? With the top seed and the AFC East championship on the line, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots won’t be ready to go for this one.

But divisional games are always interesting, because the teams know each other so well. This game is Miami’s season. Plenty of times AFC East opponents have beaten the Belichick-Brady Pats in September on the road, but beating them in December, in Foxboro when we’re down to the nitty gritty of the season, has been near-impossible.

It might be the last shot for this Miami regime.

This is when the Patriots are at their best and nearly unbeatable without a perfect game. Do the Dolphins have a perfect game in them to sweep the season series against the Pats? I’m not so sure.

Here’s the Pats’ gameplan to sew up their 12th AFC East title in the last 14 seasons.

Offensive Game Plan

Miami is the top-ranked team defending passes to tight ends per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. But they haven’t faced the real Gronk yet, so they’ll be put to the test on Sunday. The Patriots want to be a team that can play any kind of a game, and against teams that struggle to stop the run they can be. But let’s be honest with ourselves, the Patriots are best when they’re throwing the ball, with Brady getting it out quickly. 

Against the Chargers they tried to stick with their power run game even when it wasn’t working. There’s no need to try that against an even-better Miami defense. 

Offensively, the Pats should go pass/spread-heavy early to loosen up the front seven. The trio of Edelman/Gronk/LaFell are deadly once they get going. The sooner that happens the better. Then, if they can establish a lead, they can work in Blount and Gray. I’d like to see more Jonas Gray this week especially, but in the second half.

Defensive Game Plan

Jarvis Landry didn’t have a catch in week one against the Patriots, but has since emerged as Tannehill’s go-to target. While Revis was on Mike Wallace then, it might make sense to shift him to Landry now. The Pats also didn’t have Brandon Browner the first time, so the question is does he matchup on the bigger Charles Clay, or the faster Wallace with over-the-top help? The Past used linebackers and safeties on Clay last time.

The discipline of edge players Ninkovich and Ayers (and maybe Chandler Jones) is essential to keeping Tannehill beat them from the pocket. The Pats will also look to test the interior of Miami’s line with their Double A Gap blitz looks. The Dolphins should be a good test for what has become a staple of the Pats’ defensive game plans.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Protect Brady: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, because as I’ve said many times, this could effectively be the only key each week. Give Brady time and there’s a very good chance the Pats win. I’m going back to the well on this one because of the problems Miami’s rushers gave New England the first time around.

Granted, that was still in the experimental portion of the season, when our starting guards were Marcus Cannon and Jordan Devey, but the OL hasn’t exactly been lights out as of late. And a poor performance by Nate Solder or Sebastian Vollmer could swing this game heavily in favor of the Dolphins. There might not be a more intriguing matchup that on the edges of the Patriots defense. But all five of them must have their best game of the season.

2. Say Hello to Our New Run Defense: In the first meeting, the Dolphins ran all over the Patriots, piling up 191 yards on the ground. The Pats certainly had their problems stopping the run early in the season, but over the last couple months they’ve settled down. Throw in the fact that Knowshon Moreno is out for the season and the signs seem clear that Miami won’t be able to rely on their running attack to keep the chains moving like they did the first time around. That puts more pressure on Ryan Tannehill to win the game with his arm.

3. Say Hello to Our Fully-Functional Offense: The Patriots had about as bad of second half as a team can have against the Dolphins in Week 1. Rob Gronkowski played just 38 of 86 snaps. Brandon LaFell had zero catches on six targets. Kenbrell Thompkins was tied with Edelman with nine targets for most on the team. So yeah, this is a much different team now, one that shouldn’t have a second half that looks like this:

4. Spy Tannehill: It seems like quarterbacks who can run have given the Patriots defense their biggest problems this year. Pocket passers like Peyton Manning or Phillip Rivers? No problem. Guys who can move like Aarond Rodgers and even Geno Smith, have been able to extend drives against a Patriots front seven who lose contain or an open running lane. Playing quarterbacks like that require the ultimate discipline, with a delicate balance between pass rushing and maintaining lane integrity. Tannehill cannot be allowed to run for first downs on third down. It sounds simple but this will be a challenge.

5. Win: This will be just the fourth AFC East game of the season for the Pats, yet it’s a chance to win the division. That goes to show how poorly the rest of the AFC East has played outside the division. Everyone’s focusing on catching the Patriots, yet it’s always the outside games that doom the Dolphins/Jets/Bills’ seasons. 

The lead in the conference is also just a half game, so there is no margin for error. This is without question the hardest remaining game on the schedule. There’s nothing to hold back for, it’s time for the 2014 Patriots to collect their first championship of the season.

New England Patriots Game Plan: Week 14 at San Diego Chargers

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When the Patriots play teams like the Broncos or the Packers, it’s all hype, while games like these against the Chargers are usually a little under-the-radar. There’s no question, the Chargers are a dangerous team, and every time Tom Brady has played in San Diego it’s come down to a (missed) field goal at the end.

I feel like this game will define the 2014 Patriots in many ways.

A win and the team will be back on track after fighting valiantly in the loss to the Packers. They can turn the page to closing their season out with three-straight divisional games, two of which are at home. No more elite quarterbacks. No more unknown foes. Just the three teams they’re most familiar with standing between them and the top seed in the AFC.

But with a loss to the Chargers and the AFC East is in play with the Dolphins coming to town and additionally, there’s a very good chance that Denver will re-take the top overall seed for the playoffs in the AFC.

Not to say that I don’t think this Patriots team could win the AFC Championship in Denver – they have the makeup and talent to win anywhere, but everyone knows how hard the Patriots are to beat at home.

This is a defining game for the 2014 Patriots. Here’s my game plan…

Offensive Gameplan

The Chargers’ defense is similar to the Patriots in that their pressure tends to come from scheme rather than talent. As always, what matters most is making sure Tom Brady is protected. The main focus there is with Dan Connolly, who has been battling an ankle injury and has been terrible the last two weeks (and pretty much the whole season) as you can see from Pro Football Focus’ rankings:

If Connolly’s problems continue, the Patriots are in trouble. Interior pass rush has always been Brady’s Kryptonite and play like that which is graded out above is like inviting Lex Luthor into the Fortress of Solitude with an open door.

Otherwise, the Pats have to realize who they are and what they’re good at. Against the Packers there were too many shots downfield that were way off the target. We’re a dink-and-dunk team, and an unstoppable one at that. Let’s own it.

Involve everyone. Edelman is banged up. Gronk is going to be a major game plan target for the Chargers. It’s time to get the Tim Wrights and Danny Amendolas and Shane Vereens more involved. Brandon LaFell continues to shine, but rounding out the attack around him will take this offense to the next level while giving those gameplanning for the Patriots offense a nightmare of choices.

Defensive Gameplan

The match ups in the secondary seem obvious: Revis on Keenan Allen, Browner on Malcolm Floyd, Arrington/Ryan on Eddie Royal, with Chungs/Collins on Antonio Gates. It’s becoming obvious that the fate of the Patriots this season might just hinge on those doing the covering who are not named Darrelle or Brandon.

This is a copycat league, so you can expect the Chargers to be planning a heavy dose of Royal and Gates no matter who is covering them. Perhaps that means it’s time to shift the man coverage more frequently, to not let Rivers get into a rhythm with any single receiver.

But Brandon Oliver is also the kind of running back who has given the Pats fits in the past. They’ll have to keep an eye on him.

But the coverage won’t really matter if the Pats can exploit the Chargers’ offensive line, the weak link of the team. The Pats pass rush has been average to non-existent in recent weeks and they must start winning the one-on-one matchups if they’re going to keep Rivers from having success.

It seems like Chandler Jones could possibly return, that would be a huge boost. If not, it comes down to four players – Ninkovich, Ayers, Chris Jones and Easley. Those guys must start causing havoc or else the Pats won’t be going very far.

5 Points of Emphasis

1. Pass Rush Re-emergence: After a quarterback, there’s no more important element to a successful NFL team than its pass rush. The challenges of recent weeks have had the Patriots’ pass rush up and down, but the time has come for them to make a statement and the Chargers offensive line is ripe for the taking. Rivers isn’t going to beat anyone with his feet like Luck or Rodgers, so there’s no reason for hesitation. Pin back the ears and go get him.

2. Chung/Arrington/Ryan: These guys better be used to having targets on their backs because it’s going to continue this week. How they do in coverage against Eddie Royal, Brandon Oliver and Antonio Gates might just determine the game. The Chargers know and the Patriots should know it as well.

3. Throw to Score, Run To Win: It’s time for the offense to get back to what they do best –  attacking the short zones and picking up yards-after-catch in the first half to get a lead, then giving the rock to Blount/Gray to bleed the clock and seal the game. Of course it begins up front with the offensive line – who aren’t coming off their best game. They should have something to prove and the offense will flourish if they play like they do.

4. 60 Minutes: After a full week together in San Diego without any distractions, the Patriots should be a focused group. But against the never-dead Chargers, they’ll need a full game effort. Coming off a loss, you never expect a team to get over-confident, but they can’t warm up the plane and be too eager to get home even if they have a lead late in the fourth quarter. They must finish.

5. Win: This win would position the Patriots to get to the Super Bowl. It’s just that simple. They know the three teams left to face after this and all three are winnable games. The first step to hosting the AFC Championship is to beat the Chargers. The Patriots must know that is on the line Sunday and play like they know it.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 12 vs. Detriot Lions

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The 8-2 New England Patriots welcome the 7-3 Detroit Lions this weekend in another great test for the streaking Pats, winners of six straight.

The Lions have actually pounded the Patriots pretty good in the 2011 and 2013 preseasons, but those games were in Detroit and without the usual kind of gameplanning that goes into the regular season contests.

Still, the Lions feature an impressive defense and have enough weapons on offense to challenge the Patriots suddenly stout defense.

Here’s the gameplan for the Pats:

Offensive Gameplan

The Lions have the #1 ranked defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. They are 3rd against the pass and 1st against the run, but have they faced the kind of gameplan-oriented offense like the Patriots in non-ideal conditions yet? Nope.

The biggest key to the game might be keeping Ndamukong Suh out of Tom Brady’s face. If there’s one recurring nightmare in the Patriots infrequent losses, it’s pressure coming up the middle early and often. If Brady cannot establish an early rhythm, it could ensure the game stays close well into the second half.

However, this year’s Patriots have shown a remarkable ability to overcome bad plays and bad drives, bouncing back and looking unstoppable, even after looking gross.

Expect the Pats to shift away from the run-heavy approach they took against the Colts and move to a more spread-offense, quick throw approach. 

Once again, Rob Gronkowski will be a key, whether he’s catching the ball or just drawing excessive attention in coverage, opening things up for the other receivers. The Lions are the #1 team in the NFL covering tight ends, that should be put to the test this week.

Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola could be big keys in the slot, while Brady will take his deep shot to Brian Tyms, with Brandon LaFell keeping the Lions honest on the perimeter.

Shane Vereen should be the running back of choice instead of running Jonas Gray and newly-reunited LeGarrette Blount into the teeth of the Lions’ defense. The Lions are 26th in DVOA covering running backs, so throwing to Vereen makes sense.

Defensive Gameplan

The Lions have the 22nd ranked offense in DVOA, 18th in passing and 30th in rushing, but those numbers don’t match the talent they have, especially in the passing game with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate forming a tough combination to defend.

As is the case every week, the question is who will Darrelle Revis cover. While conventional wisdom might put him on Megatron, the Pats haven’t always used Revis straight-up on the best opposing receiver. 

More often they use him against the quarterback’s safety valve, so there’s certainly a case to be made for using Revis on Tate, and using Browner’s size and length (along with over-the-top help) on Calvin. 

Though Browner is former teammates with Tate, sometimes that kind of familiarity is useful as we’ve seen with Kyle Arrington covering Wes Welker.

The Patriots’ defense has found their stride in recent weeks and going against pass-happy teams like Detroit feeds right into what they are built to stop. 

With newfound confidence in their defensive backs, the Pats are more willing to send extra blitzers like Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins. Dominique Easley has also shown signs of recovering his elite burst and could be in for a big game.

Points of Emphasis

1. Trim the Bush: Tate and Johnson are very good players and will cause issues, but the Pats secondary is up to the challenge. Where the game could be lost is if Reggie Bush gets hot, both running against the sub defense and in the passing game. Jamie Collins figures to draw a fair amount of responsibility to cover Bush in the passing game, but it will be up to the front four contain Bush on the ground.

2. Spread ‘Em:  These are the kind of games that will bring back memories of 2007 as the Pats should get all their receivers involved. If guys like Tim Wright and Danny Amendola can snag some catches early, it will all start to unravel for Detroit, who is undoubtedly hoping to take Gronk out of the game and force the Pats to win with Edelman as the main passing focus. 

3. Top of the Pocket: Games like this are a great test for the interior of the Pats offensive line, especially rookie Brian Stork. This is where the game will be won or lost. If Brady can’t step up into the pocket things could get interesting. He’ll want to unload the ball quickly, but the only way to stop it is if there’s immediate pressure in his face. That cannot happen.

4. Force Throws to the TEs: Expect the Pats to take away the deep ball to Tate and Johnson, forcing Stafford to check down to his tight ends. While it might be by design, the Pats are 31st in DVOA covering tight ends. As we saw last week with Coby Fleener going off, but the Colts still losing, we could see Brandon Pettigren, Eric Ebron or even Joe Fauria catch a bunch of balls. Even if that’s happening, it’s playing into the Patriots game plan.

5. Win – I think this is the week the Pats expose the reality of the Lions. They’re a good team, but I just don’t think they have what it takes to beat the Patriots in Foxboro. The Pats certainly took a look at how the Lions dominated them in recent preseason games and should be motivated to send a message. With the Packers looming next weekend, moving to 9-2 while maintaining the top record in the AFC is a great way to enter the post-Thanksgiving stretch, a time when they should really start playing their best football.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 11 at Indianapolis Colts

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These are the games that define your season. The Patriots have had plenty of success at home, against the good and the bad, but on the road, in their recent house of horrors (4th and 2, SB46), against a team that badly wants to beat them to prove they’re “elite”… this is where a good Pats team can prove they’re great.

The last time we saw the Patriots, they were clicking on all cylinders against the Broncos and getting all the bounces. That tends to happen less often on the road.

It’s not surprising that Rodney Harrison said earlier this week that Belichick is treating this like a playoff game. Maybe it doesn’t have the same buzz as Brady vs. Manning, but this game is every bit as big as far as the AFC goes, and it will definitely have an impact on the playoff seedings.

What do the Pats have to do to get out of Lucas Oil Stadium with a win?

Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

The Pats have had an extra week to do some self-reflection so there could be some new wrinkles, or perhaps some expanded roles, for guys who got here late.

While Jonas Grey has shown some decent power, Shane Vereen is essentially the lead back now. Since Stevan Ridley went down, Vereen has played 65 percent of the snaps. With Gronk drawing coverage, things have only been getting easier for Vereen in the passing game. Look for him to be a key contributor.

The Pats’ success with play action has been well-documented this week. For all the talk of the two tight end sets of 2011 and 2012, now the Pats are having success with fullback James Develin and/or Michael Hoomanwanui joining Vereen in the backfield. Simply put, the threat of a fullback/halfback tandem has been enough to put defenses on their toes against the run game and that has helped the passing game. The Patriots have a miserable ground attack, Football Outsiders has them 31st in rushing DVOA.

The Colts should focus on two things – stopping Rob Gronkowski and pass coverage. Force the Pats to beat them running the ball or squeezing it in tight windows to someone other than their dominant tight end.

Will the Pat take the cheese and run the ball? This could be a game that tells us a lot about their balance on offense. But it’s a passing league and in a dome the conditions are perfect, so look for this to be a Vereen/Edelman/LaFell heavy attack.

Defensive Gameplan

The bye week was much-needed for the Patriots defense because it gives in-season newcomers likes Akeem Ayers, Jonathan Casillas and Casey Walker a little extra time to get up to speed.

The Pats had Ayers in a full-time edge role against the Broncos and I can’t see why that would change now, the only other option is to play the injured Dominique Easley out of position.

Jamie Collins had a breakout game against the Colts last year in the playoffs and there’s every reason to think he’ll once again be a big key. Despite some knocks on him in the run game early this season, he’s looked better recently, likely due to his thigh getting fully healthy. Collins was drafted for games like these.

As always the big question is how the Pats deal with explosive deep threat T.Y. Hilton, old nemesis Reggie Wayne and the Colts’ strong duo of tight ends, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. There’s little question that Hilton will get over-the-top focus, so is it worth using Revis on him? Perhaps letting Browner kill him at the line, while putting Revis on Wayne is a better use of resources. 

Patrick Chung, Dont’a Hightower and Collins will have their work cut out for them, not just with the tight ends, but with resurgent running back Ahmad Bradshaw, who has over 700 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns this season.

Disguise, and forcing Andrew Luck into the kind of mistakes he’s made in his first two games against the Pats are key, but those games were in Foxborough and Luck cannot be counted on to hand the game over in Indy.

This one will take a total defensive effort just like the Broncos game did. Do the Pats have another one of those in them, this time on the road?

It’s a great test.

5 Points of Emphasis

1. Keep the Gronk Times Rolling: The Colts are 29th in DVOA covering tight ends so that’s an area to attack. However I believe the Colts will give extra attention to Gronkowski, even if it comes at the expense of weakening their defense elsewhere. Still, it doesn’t really matter. Gronk makes plays no matter how many guys are on him and there’s no reason to shy away from him now.

2. Stop Bradshaw In Sub: I could probably write the same keys every week for the Patriots – stop the run in sub-defense and protect Tom Brady. The matchups at wide receiver versus the Pats’ secondary are favorable, but it’s Ahmad Bradshaw who could ruin the game. The defensive tackles and ends must build the wall and contain him, while the linebackers must stick with him in pass coverage. Even giving up a bomb or two to Hilton is preferable to letting Bradshaw put up 150 yards of offense.

3. Fast Start on Offense:  I have a feeling this one is going to be a high-scoring affair and the Pats would be well-suited to get some points on the board early. So far, they’ve had really good in-game perseverance this year – bouncing back after slow starts and mistakes in recent weeks, but it would be preferable to avoid the drama of trying to come back on a Colts team that specializes in comebacks.

4. 60 Minutes: Along those same lines, this one is going to come down to the end and no lead is safe against Andrew Luck in Indy. If the Pats snag a lead for the second time in two games, they might be feeling pretty good about themselves and take their foot off the gas.  That’s just what the Colts love. The Pats must finish.

5. Win: The Pats lost to the Panthers coming out of their bye last season, looking flat and needing a late comeback that probably should’ve happened. They should be better prepared and more focused against a conference rival this year.

A win would seal the Patriots’ spot atop the AFC, and give them the inside track on a bye, owning a direct tie-breaker over the other two best teams in the conference.

A win over a very good team in a very tough place to play would say even more.