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New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 9 vs. Washington Redskins

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These are the weeks that the Patriots’ “one game at a time” and “everyone is good and capable of beating us” mantra must really be put to the test. Look, it’s nothing against the Redskins, they’re not that terrible and I’m sure if the game unfolds in a specific way they very well could hand the Patriots their first meaningful home loss since 2012, but it’s just so hard to see that happening and thus hard to get fired up for this game.

I do try to cherish every regular season game, because in two short months we’ll be hitting the playoffs and before you know it the offseason will be upon us. There are just so many storylines with just about every other team in the NFL that give you something to get at least a little bit excited about, but with the Redskins I got zippo.

Still it’s a chance to get better and see some of our weak spots challenged a bit. But really all I care about is getting a win without losing anyone to injury for the season. 

With that in mind, here’s the gameplan!

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Offensive Gameplan

These offensive gameplans get easier to write every week. I could just write, “Do what we do, see if they can stop it or we have an off day” and then that’s it. But schematically the Patriots don’t really need to adjust their gameplan each week because it simply boils down to getting the ball in Gronk/Edelman/Lewis’ hands as much as possible and then finishing teams off with the power rushing of Blount.

Maybe a defense can force the Patriots to go to Amendola or Chandler in some key moments, but when those guys come through in those moments there’s really not much else an opponent can do.

What I think is important to focus on are the areas that I’m not quite sold are rock solid yet. The offensive line would be the place to start, although they’re really just a Marcus Cannon return away from still having their most experienced line possible. It’s likely Jackson and Mason are out, and we know we’re getting Fleming at RT again, but an interior line of Kline-Andrews-Wendell is solid, and I’m curious to see how they deal with the size of Terrence Knighton who did give them some problems in the past.

The big question is what happens when Stork comes back. Can you work a center rotation in-game, or is that undesirable? It’s hard to yank Andrews, even for the biggest Stork supporter like myself, but if the Pats get a comfortable lead this week, it could be the right time to give Stork some snaps. It’s still pretty strange to have no depth at tackle or guard, but too many good centers.

Hopefully Cannon gets back soon, Vollmer can go back to right tackle and then they can figure out how everything in the middle will work.

The Redskins are 10th in passing yards allowed-per-game (that’s certainly going up after this one) so I’d like to see more of Brandon LaFell getting involved in the offense. Lewis has been the biggest addition this year, but if/when LaFell gets back to his 2014 level I shudder to think about how potent this offense will be.

Ryan Kerrigan’s availability is a big storyline in this one because without him I’m mainly thinking about targeting the Redskins’ run defense, ranked 30th in yards-per-game. It would be nice to protect Gronk, Edelman et al with just a good old fashioned ground-and-pound with Blount, who has been somewhat quiet in recent weeks.

Defensive Gameplan

DeSean Jackson (most likely back from injury) and tight end Jordan Reed are the headliners for the Redskins offense and I think they present some interesting challenges for the Patriots’ defense, while Pierre Garcon is their reliable chain mover.

Covering tight ends has been markedly improved this season, as the Pats have gone from 30th last year to 5th this year in Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings. Credit has to go to Patrick Chung, who’s been remarkable in his second stint with the Pats now that they’re not asking him to be a Cover-2 deep safety anymore, nor are they asking him to cover slot receivers. McCourty also gets some credit as he’ll come down and cover TEs on clear passing downs as well, so expect some combination of them on Reed.

As for Jackson, this will be another pure speed test for the defense after not really seeing someone like him since Antonio Brown in the opener. But I’d think given the rest of the threats around him that the Pats might use Ryan at the line on Jackson with Harmon over the top. Butler might be better served taking Pierre Garcon one-on-one.

Otherwise, we have a good bead on the Patriots defense now. Malcom Brown and Alan Branch are the top two tackles, with Easley coming on in passing situations, often with Geneo Grissom, who has settled into an interior sub rusher role after we thought he was more of a defensive end. 

I am also curious to see if there is more of the 4 safety/3 corner look that we saw last week a few times. This features Harmon as the deep centerfield safety, Chung and Richards covering the seams in zone, McCourty manning up a tight end and the corners manning up the rest of the receivers. I like this package because it can take away a lot of easy passes and brings an element of physicality multiple DB packages often lack.

But ultimately if the Pats set the edge, tackle well and win their one-on-one pass rush opportunities they should be fine limiting Cousins et al.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Take Away Reed: I like to start by taking away any safety blanket an inexperienced quarterback has and Reed is that for Cousins. Those are the easy throws and jamming Reed at the line is a no-brainer. Eliminating the first read and easiest throw will put pressure on Cousins that should result in turnovers.

2. Butler on Garcon: Garcon is Cousin’s most targeted receiver overall and especially on third down. The veteran should be a good challenge for Butler, but I think making Cousins beat us with DeSean Jackson is the way to go. It will also test our deep threat defense, an area the Pats have struggled the last five seasons. No better time to see where we’re at with it than in this one.

3. Let Them Pick Their Poison: Double Gronk? Double Edelman? Play Dime? Or Nickel? Whatever the Redskins choose to do the Patriots have the pieces to counter and counter hard. As I touched on earlier, Lewis and LaFell are the trickle down problems, while Amendola and Scott Chandler are ready to come through when needed. Whoever is needed will be ready and the Redskins’ in-game adjustments won’t be enough to stop everyone.

4. Chandler Jones vs. Trent Williams: As I wrote yesterday, I think Chandler Jones is the key to the Patriots’ Super Bowl hopes this year, and he gets a great challenge in Trent Williams this week. I don’t see a world where Chandler Jones has a great game and the Patriots lose. If he’s on and getting pressure, the Patriots will be nearly unbeatable. He just has to find the consistency that has somewhat evaded him so far.

5. Win: It might be hard for the fans to excited about this one, but it’s a chance for the team to get better in some areas that still have question marks and finish off half the season undefeated, no easy task that we somewhat take for granted. The page will be turned quickly to the New York Giants, who present good challenges both now and historically. But some games just feel like a no win unless they’re a stress-free blowout and hopefully that’s what this one turns into.

Prediction: Patriots 35, Redskins 13

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 vs. Miami Dolphins

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These Thursday night games sneak up on you fast, especially after my whirlwind trip to the Pats-Jets game last weekend. If the Pats can just get through this one with a win they’ll get their final small break before the drive to the playoffs really begins. These couple extra days of rest can make a big difference, especially for guys like Jabaal Sheard
 and Marcus Cannon
 who we’ll definitely need down the stretch.

This is the Dolphins team everyone thought we’d see in 2015. Yes, they started off terrible but since Dan Campbell took over during their bye week they look like a new team. 

The most interesting part of this game to me is the coaching matchup. It’s a short week. It might be a little wet out. Guys are still sore. For a coach like Belichick, he knows how to handle this. But Campbell is getting his first taste of it and after ramping up the physicality in practice, the Dolphins won’t be hitting this week.

But it’s more than just game prep, it’s about in-game adjustments. These new Dolphins want a street fight, which the Patriots are more than capable of playing, but what happens when the Dolphins have to adjust to the new twists the Patriots will throw at them? Will Campbell and his staff know the answers and be able to implement them? Because playing the Patriots puts as much pressure on a coaching staff as it does the opposing players.

Campbell has been praised for simplifying the Dolphins approach on both sides of the ball, so it seems a stretch to think he has any major curveballs up his sleeve for the Patriots. More likely, Belichick knows exactly what they’re doing and what is needed to stop it. 

It’s a big opportunity for the Pats to move to 7-0 overall, 3-0 in the division and essentially put a stranglehold on the division crown.

Here’s the gameplan…

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Offensive Gameplan

I’ve really enjoyed writing the offensive gameplans this year because they’re really quite simple. Do what you do, Patriots, because no one has stopped it consistently yet.

Obviously having Dion Lewis back would be a huge bonus. I’m surprised that no one really seems to mention how useful he would’ve been against the Jets. He is the lead back now for the Scalpel (fka Dink and Dunk) as the Patriots will spread out the defense, see how they want to play and then go to work exploiting the matchups that favor them.

There aren’t many defenses out there that can match up with the Dion Lewis we saw the first four games of the season and the Dolphins certainly aren’t one.

I do have some concerns about the lessened athleticism at the tackle spots. Neither Vollmer nor Fleming move particularly well, but both are strong once they get their hands on rushers. Still, Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon are going to make some plays here. They just can’t be allowed to unravel the gameplan because both tackles need help.

The Dolphins are third in DVOA covering tight ends, so that adds some intrigue to a team’s latest attempt to slow down Rob Gronkowski.

But perhaps the biggest area I’m curious about is once the Pats feel the defense is loosened up enough to put LeGarrette Blount in. If there’s one statistical area Miami has been light years better at with Campbell it’s run defense. Before Campbell they were giving up 160.6 rushing yards-per-game. In the last two games they’ve give up 134 total.

Their defense is playing up to their potential now. Ndamukong Suh and safety Reshad Jones looked outstanding against the Texans and are just the kind of players who, on the right night, can give the Patriots problems.

The Dolphins are better now, but it’s still a huge task to beat the Patriots in Foxborough, especially on a short week. If the Dolphins defense wins the physical battle in the trenches, they could pull off the upset. The Patriots must keep the Dolphins on their heels and hopefully in their own heads trying to adjust to what twists the Pats are throwing at them.

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Defensive Gameplan

Ryan Tannehill was in the zone last week against the Texans. Every pass he calmly threw was perfectly placed, hitting his receivers in stride and allowing them to turn short catches into long runs.

Can Tannehill be that good week in and week out? I’m not convinced of that, but he is certainly the second-best quarterback in the AFC East right now and could enter the conversation as one of the brightest rising QBs in the league if he can continue to play with that kind of effortless accuracy.

But the Patriots have a way of making opposing offenses play left-handed so to speak. The throws that Tannehill was making last week had to make Belichick smile, because in many ways it was a lot like what Brady and the Patriots offense do. Find the right matchup, get the ball out on time and let the playmakers go to work.

So this means the defense will need a gameplan like the ones we usually see against our offense – taking away the short passing game. Forcing Tannehill to hold the ball and make the deeper throws. Whether this is done with playing tight man coverage like the Pats did against Fitzpatrick last week, or loading up the short zones is something I’m interested to see.

But perhaps more important is tackling. That sounds simple, but that’s really what killed a Texans team who put together what might be the worst half of football I’ve seen in a long time last week. So much of the Dolphins’ damage was done after multiple missed tackles, and on a short week of rest with guys still banged up, there might be less desire to get down and dirty when it comes to tackling. 

Tannehill is making the tough throws right now, and unless the Pats’ pass rush wakes up after their slumber against the Jets, it’s hard to see them totally taking him off his game. So limiting the yards-after-catch is vital with good, sound tackling. When you’re playing on short rest the fundamentals can be the first things to suffer, that can’t happen against Miami.

But the other problem is Lamar Miller who has 288 yards rushing in his last two games. The Patriots proved that they could stop the run when they wanted to last week against the Jets (and spare me the “Ivory was hurt” line, there was nothing there for him even if he was healthy) but can they commit seven or eight to the box with the way Tannehill is throwing the ball? That leaves less margin for error on tackling and puts a lot of pressure on Devin McCourty on the back end.

It will be an interesting balance for the Patriots defense this week, but this is a very similar passing offense to the one they see every day. 

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Five Points of Emphasis

1. Tackle – I mentioned this before and I’m mentioning it again because I really think the Patriots defense will be as good as they tackle in this one. If Dolphins receivers are catching quick passes, breaking tackles and getting big gains, the Patriots could lose. Completions will happen, but if the receivers are wrapped up and put down right at the catch, like the Pats defense usually does, it will force Tannehill to continue to execute and I don’t think he has the patience that Brady does yet. That will lead to mistakes and incompletions.

2. Stop Run in Sub – Last week the Pats focused their attention on stopping Chris Ivory with a heavy box, but this week the Dolphins passing offense scares me more than the Jets’ did because the excel in an area that always gives the Patriots defense trouble. That means there will be more need to stop the run with the sub defense, an area that often gets pummeled when the Patriots lose games. Alan Branch has been getting better and better, as has rookie Malcolm Brown. They’ll be big keys along with Dominique Easley on those 2nd and 3rd downs with intermediate yardage to go.

3. Weather the Dolphins DL Storm: The Dolphins defensive line is too good not to make some plays in this one, but the Patriots must make sure those plays are isolated and don’t compound upon each other. They’ve done a good job dealing with Suh in the past, but he’s never been paired with edge rushers like Wake and Vernon. For the second week in a row the Pats face a DL specifically built to attack them. The quick passing game can mitigate a lot of the DL’s potential impact, but staying focused through the ups-and-downs will be critical.

4. Curveballs: Belichick must throw some curveballs at Dan Campbell and see how he adjusts. The Dolphins want this to be a street fight. They don’t want to be forced to think and adjust on the fly. That will put them into a place where they can exposed and beaten. So giving them things they haven’t seen before will be the best route to get them there.

5. Win: I don’t want to say this game is effectively for the AFC East division title, but it’s pretty close. The Pats won’t see the Jets or Dolphins again until the end of the season. That means they’d be one home win over Buffalo away from being 4-0 in the division and that would probably lock things up. But we can’t get too far ahead of ourselves. A win and then getting a couple days off would be just what the Patriots need right now. They need to cut loose with one more good performance and then they can regroup and put all their focus into the late-season surge to the playoffs.

Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 20

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 7 vs. New York Jets

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The Patriots are back in the division this weekend as the Jets come to Foxboro riding high with a 4-1 record. Things are never dull with the Jets and this game is no exception despite the lower amounts of chatter without Rex Ryan involved.

It’s an especially exciting weekend for me as I’ll be making my yearly pilgrimage back home to Massachusetts to attend the game. I’ll also be visiting tailgates with some swag to give away, so if you’re going to be there (and you have free food/drinks) please drop me a line! The grand prize will be finding a set of Patriots-Jets fans there together and then giving them tickets to the rematch in New Jersey in December.

Without Rex Ryan I’m having a little trouble adjusting to the new Jets under Todd Bowles who sounds a lot more measured than Rex ever did. That scares me a bit, because often you could count on Rex’s Jets to psych themselves out or get too caught up in the Patriots mystique. Still, Rex’s Jets always played us hard and close and while Bowles’ defensive philosophies are similar, we’ll see if he can get the same kind of effort Rex always did.

This is the kind of game that the football season is all about. The Jets have a great defense that will test Brady like he hasn’t been tested before this season. And on the other side of the ball, they have enough balance to really make the Patriots defense prove how good they are. These are the matchups I blog for!

Here’s my gameplan!

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Offensive Gameplan

There’s no denying the Jets have as talented a front four as you’ll find in the NFL, and their secondary, led by old pal Darrelle Revis, can play any kind of game. The Jets will bring pressure in this one, so Brady’s presnap reads are a huge key.

That said, if the Patriots are “on time” with their offense, the offensive line isn’t going to have to worry about prolonged blocking of the Jets’ front. The ball will be out in two seconds. But if the Jets are able to surprise Brady by taking his first read away and making him hold it an extra second or two, things could get dicey.

Personally I think the best gameplan for the Jets will be to load the field with defensive backs and use a rotating combination of Richardson, Williams and Wilkerson as the pass rushers, leaving Harrison in a reduced role. Dare the Patriots to run, but don’t allow short passes without punishment and sure tackling.

The key is making Brady’s protection hold up against just three rushers and forcing him to fit the ball into tight windows downfield. The big hope with this gameplan is stopping the run with a reduced number of bigs in the box. 

Lots of questions this week about how the Jets will match their corners, but I think it will be mix and match depending on the down. Some are curious about Revis on Gronk, but I think that’s something the Jets will want to avoid. Forcing him to tackle Gronk is not going to be ideal. More likely is Revis on Edelman, as they’re very familiar with each other.

But the biggest problem for the Jets might be Dion Lewis. As we saw last week, Gronk and Edelman can be taken away, but the Jets don’t have a clear answer for Lewis, especially if the Pats spread them out, forcing Davis or Harris out into space to cover the shifty running back one-on-one. You might recall Danny Woodhead having some big games against the Jets for similar reasons.

The other two big keys are Amendola and LaFell (as signs are pointing to him being activated for his first game of the season). No one is talking about them, but they’ve both been clutch compliments to Gronk and Edelman. If Buster Skrine is out (which it looks like he will be) the Jets corner depth will take a hit and open up chances for Amendola especially.

But what it all boils down to is patience for the offense. The Jets will make some plays, but if Brady can extend plays in the pocket while the Jets are rushing three and dropping eight, he’ll make his share of throws. If they get him off balance early it could be a grind for the offense this week.

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Defensive Gameplan

We’ve seen plenty of Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for a bunch of yards against a passive defense waiting for him to throw interceptions, which he always did.

Brandon Marshall has 37 catches for 511 yards and four touchdowns already, but my primary concern is Chris Ivory and the running game. That’s why I believe it’s key that Dont’a Hightower plays this week. The dropoff in run defense with Freeny and Mayo is too severe and puts so much pressure on Collins.

If Sheard can’t go it certainly hurts as well, but that could open the door for Trey Flowers to make his debut. Pass rush isn’t the issue this week, it’s about stopping the run on early downs and forcing third-and-longs. That’s prime Fitzpatrick interception territory.

The size of Marshall and Eric Decker against our cornerbacks does concern me and it makes me wonder if we’ll once again use physical safety Patrick Chung in more of a cornerback role this week. Butler should go hard at Marshall and give him problems. Logan Ryan saw some of Decker in 2013, that experience should help.

The wild card is my boo Dominique Easley because the Jets haven’t had to deal with a Patriots defense that had an explosive defensive lineman like him before. Easley’s so disruptive and is just hitting his stride. He made a number of key plays last week in big situations and this is a chance for Easley to take it to the next level.

Most of all I just hope the Patriots coverages stay aggressive. For the most part they’ve been a man team again this year and I’d prefer to keep that going rather than sitting back in zone and giving Fitzpatrick the quick easy passes he thrives on.

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Five Points of Emphasis

1. Win First Down

The Jets offense is going to be severely limited if they’re not picking up yardage on the ground with Chris Ivory early. But if Ivory is ripping off five or six yards on first down they’ll start rolling. While this points to more Siliga/Branch inside to start, the progression of Easley, Brown and Hicks was showing up last week so there’s no need to get away from the interior rotation. The question might be if Ninkovich and Chandler Jones can hold up all day without Sheard to spell them a bit. If Sheard can’t go, getting Trey Flowers into his first game action might be a necessity and he could bring some excitement with his physical play. How soon we forget he was the best defensive rookie in the preseason.

2. Put The Game On Fitzpatrick

This of course is directly related to winning fist down but the other way to accomplish this is to get an early lead. The Jets offense is far more effective playing from in front. If they’re forced to throw the ball 40+ times chances are they’re going to lose. In a way it’s the same gameplan the Jets should try on Brady. Take away the quick throws, make him digest the defense and put the ball downfield. That’s not Fitzpatrick’s game so that’s the game we have to make him play.

3. Patience On Offense

The Jets defense is talented and is going to make plays, but what makes the Patriots so tough is how patient and relentless they are. It might take some time to lock in on what the Jets are doing. They might get to Brady a couple times. Maybe even force a turnover. But it’s always just a matter of time before the Pats offense starts clicking. While an early touchdown drive would be ideal to put pressure on the Jets offense, countering the Jets aggressiveness over the course of the game is a big key.

4. Don’t Forget to Run

The Jets have the best run defense in the league, so it might be tempting to just spread them out and let Brady go to work with the scalpel. But with the Jets likely to go with a defensive back-heavy gameplan, it’s important to keep handing the ball off to Blount and Lewis. Even quick screens on the perimeter serve the same purpose – keeping the Jets from dictating. Force them to adjust. And when the time is right, pick up the tempo and take away any attempts at complex blitz schemes they might want to employ.

5. Win

This is always my fifth key because it’s the only thing that really matters. This game is really important for the Patriots because if they don’t win now the odds are higher that the division will still be in doubt when they have to end the year with back-to-back road trips to the Jets and Dolphins to end the year. We want those games to be meaningless, but holding serve at home in the division is the number one goal heading into the season. The next two games will tell us a lot about the 2015 season, and putting down a worthy rival like the Jets would be a good way to silence the crowd saying the Patriots haven’t played anyone good yet.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 6 at Indianapolis Colts

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Welp, this is it, the game we’ve all had circled is finally here and it’s not surprising that Tom Brady
 and the Pats have taken a “Deflategate? What was that?” approach this week. We won’t hear them say anything this week about what this game really means to them, but we’ll certainly see it more and more in their eyes and on their faces as Sunday’s game goes on, especially if they’re up a few scores like many are expecting.

As much as I’d love to jump on the “it’s going to be a bloodbath!!” bandwagon, it’s hard for me to look at a game against the Colts in Indy and write it off. Despite how bad the Colts have looked. Despite Andrew Luck’s injury. Despite the revenge angle. This is still a talented team and I’d be worried if the Pats were more focused on “revenge” than beating a football team that badly needs a win in their own house.

Is this the boring take? Probably. But I’ve seen close games with far less talented teams and while I really love what the Pats are doing on both sides of the ball, I can’t help but think this will be their toughest test yet. I hope I’m wrong. I hope it’s a bloodbath. But I still have to write a gameplan and sweat it out because the game will start out 0-0 as we all known.

Here’s what I think the Pats need to do to roll over the Deflategate cry babies…

Offensive Gameplan

It might be easy to look at the rushing numbers the Patriots have put up on the Colts the last three games and think they’ll just line up and run it down their throats once again, but I don’t think the Pats should stray from what has been unstoppable so far – the quick passing game with Dion Lewis
 at running back.

The Colts are 25th in pass defense DVOA. They’re 28th in passing yards allowed-per-game. Brian Hoyer put 312 yards on them. So yeah, I think that’s the place to attack first, and is there really anything wrong with letting Tom Brady go to work on them? I think he’ll be pretty locked in on this one.

The time for Blount will come, but he’s never at his best right at the start of the game. The defense needs to be on their heels a bit, even a little tired, and that’s when Blount is a beast to deal with.

So it’s really not that complicated on offense. The Pats do what they do and everyone knows what they do. They even know somewhat how to stop it. But knowing and doing it for 60 minutes are two different things.

Nothing would shock me more than to see a flat Patriots offense out of the gate in this one. Defensively they might give up some early yards, but I expect the offense to come out on fire. Not even the loss of Nate Solder changes that.

Spread the Colts out and then go to work with the scalpel, slowly carving them up flay by flay. Then when the time is right, pound it for the win with Blount.

Defensive Gameplan

Things could be a little interesting for the defense this week as I’m fascinated to see how they match Hilton-Johnson-Moncrief-Fleener in the passing game. Last year they matched them up with their corners and it was incredibly effective. Now the depth at corner is thin (Tarrell Brown missed Thursday’s practice and could be questionable) and they don’t have the same flexibility they had with Browner-Revis-Arrington.

Now I know the Colts WR’s havent’ exactly set the world on fire like many expected, but there is plenty of talent there and it’s likely just a matter of time before they start clicking, especially at home. 

Andrew Luck’s injury certainly makes it more of an uphill battle at this point than it might be if he were healthy. I can’t imagine getting blasted by Jamie Collins is going to help his shoulder much.

Assuming Luck plays, I think this is another “dare them to run it” game. Maybe that plays into the Colts wanting to keep Luck clean, and maybe Frank Gore can handle 25-30 carries and have a good game, but it feels like the best way to win. 

I expect Brady and the Pats offense to put up points. The only chance the Colts really have is to make it an aerial shootout to keep up. So I’d expect a similar gameplan to the Steelers one, lots of defensive backs, Harmon on the back end, McCourty coming down on Fleener on third down.

But whether or not they match receivers with corners is a big question for me. The size on Moncrief is a concern as is the speed of Hilton, but there’s no clear matchups. So perhaps just playing sides is the best call, employing a jam and over-the-top help on Hilton once again.

There’s no question if Luck plays they must attack him. The sooner Collins/Sheard/etc. lay some big hits on him the sooner the Colts passing game could fall apart.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Hit Luck: Not rocket science here on a quarterback coming off a shoulder injury needs to be hit early and often. Finally the Pats have the kind of pass rushers that should be respected. Collins/Hightower/Sheard/Chander/Ninkovich are huge keys to this and should all see plenty of time on the field (assuming Hightower’s rib ain’t no thang). If Luck is okay to go we have to find out just how “okay” he is.

2. Manage Emotions: They won’t admit it but the Patriots will be fired up for this one. Luckily they’re used to big games and shouldn’t let their emotions get the better of them. Their focus on the game this week is all part of that. They’re on the road in a hostile environment so it’s important to get off to a quietly efficient start. Stick to the gameplan and DO YOUR JOB. As things fall into place then the emotions can seep out a bit.

3. Throw to Score, Run To Win: We’re not re-inventing the wheel this week offensively. Dion Lewis should have as much to prove as anybody to a team that let him go after just a week in their facility. He’s been huge this year and seemingly getting better every week. Make the Colts deal with him and the passing game first, then bring in the Blount Force Trauma to finish them.

4. Don’t Allow Explosive Plays: As I mentioned, the Colts only real chance in this one is to put up a bunch of yards and points quickly through the air. Their receivers are talented and should test our secondary like they haven’t been tested. But if the Pats’ defense keeps everything in front of them, tackles well and forces long drives they should be okay. Andrew Luck has yet to prove he can sustain drives without turnovers, even when healthy. Allowing big plays is what will get New England out of their comfort area and into trouble.

5. Win: Aside from the Deflategate revenge angle what this game really means to the 2015 Patriots is the chance to beat one of the better teams in the AFC in their own house and give themselves a solid tie-breaker for the playoff seeding. Moving to 5-0 before they have two good divisional tests back-to-back at home with in five days of each other will put the Pats in good position. Yes it will feel great to put another nail in the Colts season, but it’s not going to come easy, at least in the first half.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 5 at Dallas Cowboys

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The Patriots are done with their early bye week and back in action against the injury-depleted Dallas Cowboys. Yes, this is far from the Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Tony Romo and Dez Bryant matchup it might’ve looked like early last summer. Now it’s
Tom Brady
vs. Brandon Weeden
, Jason Witten and not much else on either side of the ball.

Still, the Cowboys took the Saints to overtime last weekend, and now hosting a Patriots team that is coming off their bye week could translate to a closer game than the Pats -8.5 line might indicate.

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Here’s the gameplan!

Offensive Gameplan

The potential loss of Sean Lee looms large in this one for the Cowboys as their defense looked in disarray after he left the Saints game with a concussion. The Patriots offense knows how to expose defensive miscommunication unlike any other team in the league, so the Cowboys must be prepared for the breakneck pace of the Pats.

There’s really no reason for the Patriots to do anything other than what they’ve been doing – attack through the air and don’t stop until a lead is established. That means rolling our Dion Lewis for a large role once again and then handing the ball off to LeGarrette Blount
to seal the win.

It’s the Rob Gronkowski
and Julian Edelman
quick-passing show, with Danny Amendola coming through with clutch catches when called upon. No one has had an answer for Gronk/Edelman yet and it doesn’t seem like Dallas has the personnel to come up with something innovative.

The answer isn’t hard to see, it’s just nearly impossible to execute. The cornerbacks must must must disrupt the timing of the offense by jamming Gronk and Edelman at the line.

The hot routes must be taken away with creative zone drops by the defensive front. And finally Dallas must then be able to generate some kind of pass rush with only three rushers. 

Or perhaps the Cowboys should load up against the pass early on and allow the Pats to run on them early. If Brady and the passing game don’t establish an early rhythm perhaps they will continue to sputter.

None of these are airtight and easily executable answers, they’re simply the only things left to possibly try against the Patriots’ offense outside of just hoping they come out flat and stay flat.

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This one’s for you, Greg Hardy.

Defensive Gameplan

Despite being somewhat of a punchline, Brandon Weeden looked decent in spurts against the Saints, but this one has all the makings of a “make Weeden beat us” gameplan.

Which means that the Pats might actually try to stop the run this week. Generally this would mean more of Siliga and Branch, while working in Brown and Hicks (maybe) while Easley might be reserved for third down pass rushing duties only.

Though Easley does make a pretty good impact in the run game, not with size, but with his disruption. He’s one guy to monitor but the other is Jerod Mayo, because if they’re going to be in more regular (4 DBs) personnel, that could mean a spike for his playing time. 

I’ve been tough on Mayo over the bye week because I just don’t see him moving like he used to. Maybe it will come back, but the clock it ticking. This week might be the first time we get a sense of how extensively they’re willing to use Mayo or if Jon Bostic was brought in because they don’t think they can lean on Mayo yet.

Overall the Patriots are just about fully healthy this week so we’ll also get a sense of any changes in the secondary they felt needed to be made after some self scouting over the bye. Could Jordan Richards start to see more time? Or how about Justin Coleman? Is Bradley Fletcher going to get another shot?

I’d expect a little more zone defense this week as this is where we’ll see if the new pass rush rotation and depth can pay off. That means Chandler/Ninkovich/Sheard generating push against a very good offensive line. It should be a good barometer of where the pass rush is at.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Stop the Run: Pretty simple really, stop the run, make Brandon Weeden beat us by putting together long, sustained drives through the air without turning the ball over. Does he have that kind of a game in him? All NFL quarterbacks have one or two, even Mark Sanchez did, so you can never rule it out. But it should be a tall task for him, especially if the Pats take away Jason Witten.

2. Keep the Offense Rolling: I used to think there were games where you’d want to come out and “establish the run” but those days are gone. What you need to establish is moving the ball and getting points. There’s little gained by running LeGarrette Blount into a primed defensive front seven only to see him gain 2-3 yards. Wait to roll the Blount until the defense has been loosened up and is on their heels a bit. Get the ball out quick, establish the lead and put even more pressure on Weeden to throw.

3. Take Away Witten: Not a secret that Witten is the best weapon left at Weeden’s disposal and while I don’t like sticking Jamie Collins in coverage too much, he’s the best tight cover guy the Pats have so he’ll see plenty of the reliable veteran tight end. I’d prefer it’s not a blitz game for Collins, instead it would be better to see how well we can generate pressure with just the front four, in whatever combination.

4. Stay Healthy: Maybe I shouldn’t put this as a key but it’s been almost all I can think about this week. The injury bug has hit the NFL iron hard this year and it seems like thus far the Pats are the only team to avoid its wrath. We’re hitting a point in the season where we usually get whacked with an injury too – Wilfork 2013, Mayo 2013/2014 are just a couple that jump to mind. Really I don’t think it’s a stretch to say if the Pats stay healthy there almost no AFC team that can stop them from getting to the Super Bowl, but there’s still a long road to go.

5. Win: How fast will I turn the page from the Cowboys to the Colts if the Pats get an injury-free win? Almost immediately. We all know how much hype there will be over the next week and I can’t wait to get on it. Still the Pats have been almost flawless for the first three games, and they’re somewhat due for some flat play. Maybe they’ll be like the 2007 team and avoid it or be able to overcome it, but I won’t be surprised if this game is closer than everyone thinks.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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The 2-0 New England Patriots “welcome” the 1-1 Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday at 1pm EST in the last game before their early bye week. Both teams are coming off impressive wins, with the Jaguars knocking off the Patriots’ divisional rival Miami Dolphins.

The Patriots are 14-point favorites, but you can never get too overconfident in September, when the Pats have lost plenty of ugly games to crappy teams over the years, including 2012′s home loss to the Arizona Cardinals. That would be the Cards only road win of the season.

Still, this Patriots team has been clicking right out of the gate, and while they haven’t been perfect, they are healthy and experienced in all the right spots. 

Getting to the bye week with a 3-0 record is all that matters, here’s how the Pats can do it.

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Offensive Gameplan

Gus Bradley comes from the Seattle/Pete Carroll system and the similarities both in players and scheme are immediately evident. Bill Belichick has hit on the pure size of the Jags all week and they should present a physical challenge for the Patriots’ offense.

We only need to look back at the Super Bowl gameplan for a sense of how the Patriots might attack Jacksonville, and once again it’s probably not running the ball into the heart of their defense.

Rather, one of the keys to the offensive Super Bowl gameplan (as we saw in Do Your Job) was to make the defense defend the Patriots’ quickness on crossing routes. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but yes, it means using guys like Edelman and Amendola underneath and utilizing Gronk on the outside to stretch the defense, especially up the seam as well.

Jared Odrick is disruptive up front, while linebackers Paul Posluszny and Telvin Smith make most of the tackles. But if there’s one player to attack it’s old “friend” Sergio Brown, last seen getting thrown out of the club by Gronk in Indy. Sergio is now playing the Earl Thomas free safety role and guess what? Sergio isn’t Earl and no one knows that better than the Patriots.

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Defensive Gameplan

Blake Bortles is coming off one of the best games of his career vs. Miami with 273 yards, two touchdowns and, most importantly, no interceptions. Bortles has a stable of big receivers, led by Allen Robinson, one of my favorite Patriots fits coming out in the draft two years ago. Robinson had 155 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins in the best game of his career as well.

At 6′3″, 220 Robinson will provide the first size challenge for the Patriots’ cornerbacks, and this is a time where you wish you had someone like Brandon Browner but I digress. Bortles will not hesitate to throw it deep as they had 177 yards deep down the field last weekend. The Patriots struggles against the deep ball over the last five season are well-chronicled, they’ve given up more 20+ passes in that time than anyone else, so expect the Jags to take their shots, ESPECIALLY AGAINST BRADLEY FLETCHER.

TJ Yeldon is a big back who ran well against a very tough Dolphins front, and if there’s one area on defense I’m really not sure about yet it’s the Patriots ability to shut down an opponent’s running game, not that they’ve really made it a point of emphasis yet.

But if I’m the Jags my offensive gameplan is simple: run, run, deep shot. This keeps Tom Brady off the field and will wear down the Patriots’ limited depth at defensive tackle.

So this will be a good game to see how concerned we really should be about the deep ball and the run defense just prior to a week off to address those issues.

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Five Points of Emphasis

1. Do what we do on offense: There’s no need to reinvent the wheel this week. The Patriots know how to beat this scheme and it plays into what they do best, they just have to execute. That means making tough catches over the middle and dictating matchups on Gronk and then exploiting them. While it would be reassuring to see LeGarrette Blount get the power running game going, Dion Lewis should be able to replicate what Shane Vereen did against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. Go fast. Identify the coverage and blow it apart. It’s the Patriots bread and butter.

2. Stop the Run: I asked this question on the podcast Wednesday night: How essential is stopping the run in today’s NFL? Belichick’s evolution to multiple linebacker hybrid packages signals that keeping up with the athleticism on offense is what he really values most. Still, the Patriots have gotten gashed in both games this season, whether by design or not. Stopping the run is about run fits, getting off blocks and making tackles. Those things are often sloppy early in the season, but now is the time to start putting it together. Keep the Jags backs from getting loose, put the pressure on Bortles to win the game with his arm and things should fall into place.

3. Highpoint the Deep Balls: 2014 was a murderer’s row of talented big wide receivers and that’s why Revis and Browner were so important. This year is less so, but the Jags will provide a challenge because our corners are smaller than their receivers across the board. Getting jams in man coverage, or flipping hips and running down the field in zone will be key this week because Bortles is going to take some shots, again, ESPECIALLY AT BRADLEY FLETCHER. McCourty and Harmon will have to be on their games as well. Nothing would make me happier than not allowing any 20+ yard throws.

4. Come Out Fast: We all know the scenario where this game gets ugly for the Pats. They get out to a slow start with a turnover or by allowing a long scoring drive and suddenly the Jags are in the driver’s seat and we’ve got a dogfight. The Pats cannot allow the Jags to be energized by any early positive plays. They must come out, put the hammer down and show them it’s going to be a long day. And then they have to make it a long day with a 60-minute effort because even with an early lead, it will be tempting to sit back and let the Jags back into it.

5. Win (and don’t get injured): Yes the final point of emphasis has always been “win” in these gameplan articles but now I’ve added the injury part because as we’ve seen early this season so much of the NFL season is a battle of attrition. Could there be a letdown after playing such a hyped game in Buffalo? It’s always possible, but returning home for their first Sunday game of the year has to count for something. This is one of those games you want to just check off the list, but the Jags have been knocking on the door of respectability for a long time now under Gus Bradley, and nothing would put them on the map more than back-to-back wins against the Dolphins and Patriots. Especially the Patriots on the road. Belichick seems to have the Pats focused for this one, and getting to 3-0 before a nice bye week would be perfect.

New England Patriots Gameplan: Week 2 at Buffalo Bills

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This is what the NFL season is really all about – a tough divisional matchup on the road against an opponent who is gunning for you. It’s games like this that I live for because if you judge your football enjoyment solely on whether or not your team wins the Super Bowl you’re almost always going to be disappointed.

Rex and the Bills are flying high after their Week One domination of the Colts and they have every reason to be. Their young quarterback played a near-perfect game, their defense played like tough bullies and there’s plenty of reason for the team and their fans to believe they’re going to build on last season’s 9-7 record.

Let’s face it, early season divisional games are almost always close for the Patriots, especially when facing a Rex Ryan defense. This version of the Bills looks a lot like the Jets did when Rex first got there – an elite defense and an offense centered around the ground game and a quarterback who doesn’t make the critical mistakes.

Sometimes it works to beat the Patriots – like Week 2 in 2009 and 2010, the 2010 AFCDG, and the 2013 OT Week 7 one – and sometime it doesn’t, including 45-3 and the rest.

It should be a great game against a team that is ready to give us their best shot. Here’s the gameplan!

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Offensive Gameplan

The evolution that Bill Belichick engineered to his offense during the bye week of 2010 seemed in large part a reaction to Rex Ryan’s brand of physical press coverage and masterfully disguised blitzes. The long-developing deep routes run by Randy Moss were just unavailable, especially with Darrelle Revis on him. So instead Belichick fully embraced “the scalpel”, or as some might call it “dink-and-dunk”, by bringing back Deion Branch and employing an attack that could win quickly at the line of scrimmage with smarts.

That ideology is still largely in place with Edelman and Amendola, but the presence of Rob Gronkowski is what truly tips the scales for the Patriots because it allows them in large part to dictate the matchups.

But the biggest key is protecting Brady right out of the gate. Brady mentioned they had been working on complicated pass protection since the spring and it’s absolutely vital against Ryan’s defense. They will pretend everyone is blitzing only to drop everyone, they’ll overload one side then bring the blitz from the other, or, as we saw last week, move the defensive linemen behind the linebackers and then send them on a delayed blitz. All of this must be decoded at the line of scrimmage by Brady and his offensive line, and with three rookies in the middle (unless Wendell returns) things could get dicey.

It’s not like Brady needs a ton of time like he might’ve needed while waiting for Moss to get thirty yards downfield, but what we’ve seen in the games where Rex’s defense gets in Brady’s head is that the pressure gets to him early, and then often. 

Identifying when it’s man and when it’s zone will be important as well. In the 2010 playoff loss Brady seemed to have no read on the defense and they couldn’t move the ball. Once he knows, it goes.

A big part of this is winning on first and second down with no negative plays. If they get into third-and-long Rex is able to open his entire bag of tricks. So while I welcome LeGarrette Blount back, there have been games where he has trouble getting going. That can’t happen here and it’s why I think you could see more Dion Lewis (or maybe Travaris Cadet) than expected because he’s so quick he usually picks up positive yardage. At least in the limited amount we’ve seen him so far.

Defensive Gameplan

This has all the makings of one of those maddening games where the Patriots defense just tries to keep Tyrod Taylor in the pocket and he ends up completing a bunch of passes and going right down the field on them. That’s just the Belichick style, and the necessary ingredient, and one the Pats haven’t always been very good at in recent memory, is generating pressure with only four rushers.

Expect it to be a similar approach to what they did to Russell Wilson in the Super Bowl. A somewhat slow, but definitely deliberate rush, that forces Taylor to be a pocket passer.

When the Patriots last saw Greg Roman’s offense with the 49ers in 2012 they were in a base defense 71 percent of the time, easily a season high and a number they haven’t come close to topping in seasons since. Most interesting is that they reverted to the old 3-4 defense, which has evolved into their run-stopping specialty package now.

It’s very possible they’ll return to that with Brown-Siliga-Jones up front and Ninkovich-Collins-Mayo-Hightower at linebacker. Now this is a lighter version of the old 3-4, especially when you consider the swap of Seymour at RDE for Chandler, but it’s far more athletic.

But one advantage with that athleticism is how they’ll be able to disguise their rushers from Taylor. Belichick won’t send more than four very often, but which four comes will be constantly changing, forcing the young quarterback to identify who is coming for him.

If the controlled rush can keep Taylor contained, then collapse the pocket around him and finish him off it will be ideal. But the Patriots have won plenty of games with subpar pressure that is saved by their overall discipline that forces turnovers. 

Maybe Taylor has the perfect game in him like Mark Sanchez did a few times. If he does the Patriots could very well be headed home with a loss. But one thing is certain, the Pats won’t sell out with a ton of blitzes. They’ll force Taylor to beat them with a perfect game throwing the ball.

But I’m really praying we can finally see some consistent disruptive pressure out of our front four.

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Five Areas of Emphasis

1. Decode the Blitzes – As I mentioned above, getting the protections straight for the Bills’ complex blitzes is paramount. This is especially true along the interior of the line where we can expect to see some rotating combination of Josh Kline, Tre Jackson, Shaq Mason and (hopefully) Ryan Wendell. Having two veterans like Kline and Wendell in there could be a big plus. Buffalo’s front is no joke and they’ll make some plays, but it’s important to not let one bad play lead to another bad play. If Brady can find a comfort zone early he should tear the Bills apart just like he can tear any other defense apart.

2. Stay on Schedule – Nothing will get the Pats in a quicker hole than if their runs on first and second down go nowhere. Or worse yet if they try to pass horizontally and get stopped behind the line. The Patriots’ offensive conversion rate against Rex’s Jets plummets as the yardage gets longer: 3rd-and-6+ = 30.5%, 3rd-and-8+ = 20.7%, 3rd-and-10+ = 16.3%. These numbers are well below the Patriots’ averages against the rest of the NFL. Essentially their chances of converting a first down are cut in half going from 3rd-and-6 to 3rd-and-10, so positive plays on early downs are critical.

3. One-on-One Must Win – With a number of talented pass rushers the Pats should be able to dictate some matchups on the defensive side of the ball. The key is when guys like Chandler Jones or Jabaal Sheard get only one blocker they must win. This has long been a sore spot for the Patriots but they finally have a number of different guys who can win these kind of matchups. There’s no more direct route to victory than making Tyrod Taylor uncomfortable in the pocket.

4. Feed Gronk – Tom Brady is Tom Brady, but Gronk is the deadly weapon that makes Brady and the Patriots offense truly lethal. He’s in the prime of his career and the more times he touches the ball the better. More than that, Gronk’s ability to block is the true wild card in this game, especially if the Bills give him too much attention as a pass-catcher. Whether he’s the target or he’s just pulling the attention of three players, Gronkowski gives the Patriots a chance to win every game with his complete dominance.

5. Win – Maybe no one wants to admit it but the Bills needs this game more than the Patriots do. But taking the division crown from the Pats is never done via a home win in September. It’s done by beating the majority of the other teams that aren’t quite as easy to get fired up for and THEN beating the Patriots in Gillette Stadium. The Pats have lost plenty of road AFC East games early in the season over the years, but it’s never mattered and a loss this weekend probably won’t really matter either. Not that I’m trying to mail this one in, but we’ve seen so many stinkers from NE in Week 2 in recent years we should at least be prepared for it. Still, there would be no better feeling than taking the wind out of the sails of the Bills once again. This is in all likelihood the hardest road division game of the season as the ones in New York and Miami don’t come until the last two weeks of the season. So there’s no pressure really, the Pats can just go in there and let it fly and see what happens.