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dion lewis

Patriots Gameplan: Super Bowl 52 vs. Philadelphia Eagles

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It’s hard to believe we’re already back in another Super Bowl. So much of the 2017 season was a blur of 28-3 and stupid storylines, few of which had much of anything to do with actual football. There were usually catastrophic injuries that somehow this Pats team overcame to get here and yes, a couple exciting wins, but mostly I remember noise.

Well, all those are out the window now. It’s all about one game and and another chance for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady to raise the bar even further on what has been a run unlike any other in sports history. But as we all know, these games are never easy. They’re stressful and the highest of drama.

The Eagles are a very tough opponent for the Patriots. Maybe they don’t have the flash of the 2001 Rams’ offense or the 2016 Falcons offense or the 2014 Seahawks defense, but they’re a good football team that has overcome a ton that would’ve torpedoed most teams. They’re balanced and have all the right pieces to challenge the Patriots’ weaknesses.Their resiliency is remarkable and the sign of a team that won’t wilt in the face of the Patriots’ dynasty.

The Patriots will certainly have to earn their sixth title just like they earned the five before it, with a 60-minute effort that will take every last second and maybe even a miracle catch or two. I’m not even sure my heart is ready for another one of these games, but here we go.

This is the gameplan to get it done and hang another banner.

 

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Breaking Down Patriots Run Game Struggles vs. Jags

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In a thrilling comeback victory against the Jaguars, the Patriots advanced to their eight Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era, and are one win away from winning three out of four Super Bowls for a second time in this century alone. The Patriots were forced to rely on Brady’s fourth quarter heroics in a matchup that featured the Jaguars ferocious front seven completely shut down the Patriots run game. Dion Lewis, after averaging 142.3 yards from scrimmage in his past three games, was held to just 34 yards on the ground and 32 through the air. If you take away his 18 yard first down run that sealed the win, Lewis ran for just 16 yards on eight carries (2.0 YPC), a far cry from his season average of 5.0 YPC, which was second in the NFL among running backs.

Almost all of the offense had to come through Brady and the passing game, and while they delivered, the Patriots will need a better effort on the ground 11 days from now against Philadelphia. An interesting pattern that I discovered is that, when the Patriots (not including “runs” by Brady and Hoyer) rushed for 4.4 or more yards per carry in a game, the Patriots were 9-0 this season (including playoffs), and had an average point differential of +15.1 in those games. However, in the nine games when they rushed for less than 4.4 yards per carry, the Patriots were 6-3, and had an average point differential of +5.7. Of course, if there is one quarterback that can overcome a lack of success on the ground, it’s Tom Brady, as he is the only quarterback in NFL history to have a winning record in games in which he is forced to throw 50+ times (19-9, a .667 winning percentage).

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Pregame Meal: Make The Teal Squeal

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It’s conference championship Sunday, the day of football I really live for as a football fan. Of course the Super Bowl is the Super Bowl, but it’s also more of an exhibition feel while the championship games take place at home venues packed with home fans and the celebrations are alway a full team party. Yes, we have to get there first and I’m still trying to imagine explaining to summer ’17 Mike how nervous I am that it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars standing between the Pats and SB52.

But here we are… back in this great game for a seventh-straight time. In 2011 it took a miracle ending to avoid overtime with the Ravens. In 2014 and 2016 it was pretty much a cake walk. In 2013 and 2015 the banged up Pats just couldn’t quite get past the Broncos in Denver.

And then there’s 2012. 2012 is the game that scares me just because it was the only time the Pats lost an AFCCG at home. That Ravens team got a perfect outing from Joe Flacco and their defense was at the height of its powers. Everything lined up just right for the Ravens and they dominated the second half. Can this Jags replicate that game? I don’t think so, but they certainly have defensive talent.

The Jags line to victory is clear — don’t turn it over and force Brady into an early mistake that doesn’t allow him to ever get comfortable. Then, maybe then, the Jags can put forth the kind of 60 minutes of fearless and mistake-free football needed to beat the Patriots at home in the AFC Championship. But it’s going to take a special effort and a complete meltdown by the Pats in all three phases.

But let’s be honest, we WANT to be nervous today. What fun would it be if we all just convinced ourselves that this is a pop warner team that the Pats will roll by 40-plus points? So for the next few hours I’ll continue to imagine the perfect Blake Bortles game, a young defense that is all over the Pats right off the snap, while Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are hit in the backfield over and over.

All I know is that I never would’ve predicted the Pats laying a 28-3 egg in the Super Bowl, so who knows, maybe it could just be the Jags day today?

Here’s the gameplan and hoodie prediction in case you missed them.

Alright, I feel like I sufficiently worried myself just enough. Here’s a bunch of other pregame thoughts…

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Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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The New England Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday in the AFC Championship, for the right to represent the conference in Super Bowl 52. It’s New England’s seventh-straight conference championship game, trying to win three-of-four Super Bowls for the second time with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Crazy.

This was a weird year in the NFL as the power structure, aside from the Patriots, has mostly been turned over. After years of being a punchline, the Jaguars introduced their fully-healthy defense to the league behind sporadic but effective Blake Bortles, who has played two playoff games of turnover-free football. For all the talk of the Jags’s defense being the only threat, their offense was 5th in points and 6th in yards.

Pats-Jags doesn’t have the same feel as AFC Championships against the Colts, Ravens and Broncos , but the Jaguars have earned the right to become the latest contender to try and knock off Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home in the AFCCG, something only the 2012 Ravens did.

Tom Brady’s apparent thumb injury adds a new level of intrigue, with the Patriots being noticeably feeding the flames. Ryan Hannable summed it up nicely here.

What do the Patriots need to do to beat the Jaguars and get back to the ‘ship? Here’s the gameplan.

 

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Pats Posits: It All Clicked vs. Titans

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After watching the Patriots-Titans game in the bar on Saturday night I had to go back and take another look at it to get the full scope of how it went down. I knew the broad strokes, but trying to analyze the minutiae is just about impossible in between ordering drinks, conversations and shooting Facebook Live videos.

I came away thinking that this was the total team win I had been hoping for. The returning pieces fit in fairly seamlessly and once again we saw more of the Pats team we remember from the middle part of the season, a dominant one that comes at you in a variety of ways. The 2017 aren’t the team that looked blah down the stretch. That team was holding back some key pieces. Now, with everyone back, we saw the real 2017 team, and they should be the overwhelming favorite to win Super Bowl 52 now.

The funny part was remembering how uneasy I felt at 7-0 after the Titans put together a perfect drive, capped off by a near-impossible catch. It almost seemed like it might be one of those games that are far closer than it should be, but alas, it was just a matter of time. Yes, the neutral zone infraction that saved the Pats from punting was where the Titans lost any control of the game, ending up in a 21-7 hole, but really, there was no stopping the Patriots in this one no matter how Tennessee played.

The Patriots look primed to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars, who I spent a good portion of last night getting a jump.

More on this AFC South playoff run in the Posits!

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Pregame Meal: Divisional Weekend

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Playoff gameday!! This is why we write all them blogs!! Yes, the excitement is palpable here as I write this, just five short miles from Gillette Stadium with the wind and rain pouring down. Temperatures are scheduled to drop tonight and I’m really hoping that it doesn’t turn into one of those games where the field is leveled due to the conditions. Obviously that makes it a far more favorable game for the Titans, especially with their strengths up front and Derrick Henry‘s running.

Even more exciting for me this morning is that we’re taking Patshow on the road tonight! Nick and I will be joined by some local legends like Jerry Thornton (Barstool, From Darkness to Dynasty author), Matty Blake (WAAF) and George Kippenhan who does the Shit Pats Fans Say videos with Nick at TKO Shea’s in Rockland. We’ll be broadcasting live pregame and giving away a ton of tees and swag to those who join us. And even if you can’t join us you can tune in at Facebook.com/Patshow6 and see all the shenanigans from the comfort of your own living room.

Here are some notes as we count down the long hours until tonight…

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Dion Lewis: Top Five Running Back?

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The Patriots finished off the regular season in rather lackluster fashion on Sunday, defeating the Jets 26-6 and clinching home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the process. Missing James White, Rex Burkhead, and Mike Gillislee, the Patriots had to lean heavily on Dion Lewis to carry the load, and he delivered for the second straight week, racking up 133 yards from scrimmage and finding the end zone twice. Lewis has proven he can be a catalyst for this Patriots offense during the rare times it has stalled, and he should be a major factor in the coming playoffs.

Once a fifth-round pick out of Pitt, the 5’8” Lewis has put the NFL on notice this season. Lewis finished as Pro Football Focus’s third ranked running back, and coming into Week 17, Lewis was fourth in yards after contact per attempt (3.4) and 5th in forced missed tackles on the ground (38). While he does rank just 14th in rushing yards in the NFL, every running back ahead of him had at least 32 more attempts, and 12 of them had at least 50 more attempts.

Because of his lack of volume, Lewis’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but when you look closer, it is easy to see why he deserves to be mentioned along with the best running backs in the NFL. He led the NFL in rushing yards in the second half of the season, and was second in all-purpose yards during that span. Lewis also had the most carries out of all running backs without recording a fumble. He finished second among all running backs in yards per carry with a 5.0 average, meaning he was one of just two backs that averaged over five yards per carry this season (the other being rookie sensation Alvin Kamara). Using Lewis’s yards per carry average, if he had been given 265 carries this year (which would have only been roughly 16 carries per game), Lewis would have put up more yards than the NFL’s rushing leader, Kareem Hunt, on seven less carries than Hunt had.

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