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Pats Posits: Saving Their Best for Probably-Not-Their Last

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In their most thrilling Super Bowl yet, the New England Patriots came back from 25 points to beat the Atlanta Falcons in overtime, 34-28, cementing Tom Brady and Bill Belichick’s place as the greatest Coach-QB duo in history.

A ton of new records were set or tied, including Most Super Bowls Won by a Head Coach (Bill Belichick, 5) Most Super Bowl Games (Tom Brady/Belichick, 7), most receptions (James White, 14), and Largest Deficit Overcome (25 points).

It’s taken me hours to wrap my head around this incredible victory and who knows how long it will take to fully grasp what unfolded. I never would’ve thought Brady’s performance in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 49 could be topped, but topped it was. But not before I had just about thrown in the towel.

At 28-3 in the middle of the third quarter, I dug into what I had hoped would be my Super Bowl victory cake. I was resigned that the Pats just met up with a red hot Falcons team and played their worst game of the season. Maybe they were bound to get blown out in one?

But like they always do, the Patriots never flinched. Once they cleaned up the mistakes — drops, ill-timed penalties and worst of all, turnovers — and figured out the Falcons’ coverage, Brady moved the ball at will.

Most impressive was that the legendary comeback was such a group effort. So many guys came through with clutch plays — White, Edelman, Hightower and Flowers are just three that jump out to me right away, but it was a team comeback, as much as it was Brady’s brilliance.

I can and will write thousands of words about this game, so let’s get a jump on all the analysis to come with the Posits.

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Reiss/ESPNBoston: Patriots PUP List

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One of the last gut punches of the offseason is usually the announcement of the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, which quickly tells you who isn’t quite fully recovered from offseason injury/surgeries. Often this list comes with surprises, but this year everything looks pretty straightforward.

Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola both recently underwent surgery after injury-plagued seasons. Dion Lewis and Shaq Mason made appearances at the final day of mini-camp but aren’t quite ready to jump into the action this week. Sebastian Vollmer’s status has been under-the-radar this offseason, but he went through plenty of small injury issues last season as well.

All had lingering issues that will need to managed early on.

The good news is that left tackle Nate Solder, who played just three full games in 2015, is not on the list. Also that zero members of the defense will start out on the sideline. That’s a great start for them, especially with so many physical players who had their fair share of injury issues last season.

The offensive pieces that are out will be vital in the long haul, especially Edelman and Lewis. Their absences will give more reps to younger players and hopefully spur their development. Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell would do well to take advantage of the extra time with Brady.

Players can come off the PUP list at any time. If they aren’t removed from the PUP list by the start of the regular season, they can be kept on it through the first six weeks of the season. At this point, it wouldn’t appear any of those opening camp on the list would be likely candidates to remain on the list into the season, but there can be a roster advantage to stashing someone away.

Edelman and Amendola Recovering from Offseason Surgeries

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Edelman SurgeriesFor some reason, bad injury news always seems to come in bunches and that’s been the case in the last week with reports that both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola going under the knife during the offseason. Edelman had a “cleanup procedure” on the foot he broke against the Giants last year while Amendola had surgeries on both his left knee (that he sprained last season) and on his ankle (bone spurs).

Word is that both should be fine for the upcoming season, even if it potentially means opening training camp on the PUP list. I try to avoid the doom and gloom here on the blog, but it’s hard to just shrug off our two best receivers going under the knife. Amendola will be 31 this winter while Edelman turns 30 this coming Sunday.

This is just a reminder that just like Troy Brown and Wes Welker before them, inside receivers in New England are a good time for not a long time. The mileage adds up quickly after thirty and the end often comes before you know it. Troy Brown said he was never the same after knee surgery in the early 2000’s.

Not saying this is the beginning of the end for Edelman and Amendola, but it illustrates just how important it is to keep the receiver pipeline fresh. Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan are really important pieces and it’s reasonable to think that to avoid last year’s offensive slowdown that happened without Edelman last year, one of those two newcomers must emerge as a trusted target.

The insurance is the lethal tight end combo of Gronk and Martellus Bennett. Bennett should not only give Brady another good target working the middle of the field, but also take away some of the attention that Edelman and Amendola get inside.

 

Danny Amendola Restructures Contract (again)

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Danny Amendola restructures

Danny Amendola has restructured his contract again for the Patriots, as first reported by Mike Garofalo, cementing his status in New England as a key clutch contributor for at least this season, and probably 2017 too (but of course it’s the Pats so you never know).

Amendola’s cap hit was $6.8 million and this should significantly bring that number down. Everyone kind of knew Amendola would be at crossroads this offseason once again, and there were some speculation that he wouldn’t be as amenable to re-doing his deal for the second time in two years.

But alas, Amendola proved that he truly does love being a Patriot and was willing to play ball with his salary to remain in New England. So many players say they just want to win, but when it comes down to the cold, hard cash of it all, they balk and take the biggest pay day they can.

Amendola came to the Patriots under the unfortunate cloud of being called “Wes Welker‘s replacement”. That’s a lot to live up to and was never fair to Amendola. Yes, he has similarities to Welker, and is certainly as good of a returner as Wes was, but Amendola is best suited not as an every down player, rather as a true slot receiver who plays a specific role.

When Amendola started returning kicks and punts in 2014 things really started to click for him as a Patriot. Then he started to get some confidence and began coming through with impossible catches in critical moments in big games.

Where Would Pats Be Without Danny?

Amendola deserves a lot of credit. The Patriots wouldn’t have won Super Bowl 49 without his contributions, including his touchdown pass against the Ravens and his touchdown catch against the Seahawks. But those memorable plays also block out some of the unbelievable regular season catches Amendola has come through with.

2015 against the Jets in Foxboro is one game that comes to mind, where an acrobatic catch by Amendola kept the chains moving in a tight game. Or his should’ve-been-a-TD punt return against the Giants that sparked a comeback win over the big blue for the first time since 2007’s 16-0 game. Or his 2014 game-winning touchdown catch against the Jets that he made while contorting his body in mid-air.

There is no shortage of highlight reel catches by Danny Amendola with the Patriots, that’s for sure.

Amendola’s done everything the Patriots have asked over his three years with the team and he’s battled through various injuries to come through in the clutch time and time again. It’s time to truly appreciate what he brings to the table, and I’m glad to definitely have him back at least for this season.

Danny Amendola and the Slot

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The Patriots added Nate Washington yesterday, a move that left with me with a yawn and a sigh. I think that’s probably because Nate Washington always seems to be that guy atop the fantasy free agents list when you’re in a can’t-win emergency, but I don’t think it will affect Danny Amendola’s role in the slot.

Yes, Washington has experience in the system after playing under Bill O’Brien and has some talent to work with, but ultimately you hope he’s like Donald Brown – a placeholder veteran addition that will get beaten out by one of the younger guys. But with the additions of Washington and Chris Hogan it’s fair to wonder how Amendola’s role could evolve, and whether these moves put him in more danger.

Amendola certainly seems like a candidate to re-structure for the second time in two seasons. Who knows how that could go. Amendola could rightly refuse which would probably mean the Pats cut him. Or maybe the Pats are biding their time and will wait to see how things shake out in the draft and into training camp.

Amendola: Slot Receiver

I also don’t see Amendola as the top 1-2 combination at wide receiver with Julian Edelman. Amendola is the slot receiver and shouldn’t be asked to play nearly every down. That’s a recipe for disaster with the way Amendola plays.

No, I fully view Chris Hogan as the “X” starter next to Edelman, with Amendola coming on in three-receiver sets. That’s why Nate Washington, who is older and less effective that Amendola, doesn’t really change the equation for me.

However, with the number of shifty slot options in the draft this year, I do think Amendola could see a challenger arise in the form of a significant draft pick. The slot receiver, as long as Edelman is intact, is a rotational position that is important, but not critical to every gameplan, especially with the presence of Martellus Bennett.

The addition of Bennett should already push the Pats toward more two-tight end sets and away from the three-receiver ones that Amendola is critical for.

The Pats have time to let it play out, but for now Amendola’s role with the Patriots still projects to what it was last year in the slot.

Will Danny Amendola Re-Structure Again?

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Could Danny Amendola be cut or traded?

PFT reported last night that Danny Amendola could be asked to restructure his contract for the second offseason in a row, and if he refuses he could be traded or cut. None of this is all that shocking. The fact is the Patriots overpaid for Amendola, thinking he’d be their Welker replacement, when they signed him in 2013 and have been forced to keep kicking the can down the road with his big pay days.

This year Amendola is due a $5 million base salary with a $6.8 million cap hit. If the Pats cut him they’ll have to take a $2.733 million cap hit.

Is this one year too early?

There are arguments on both sides of this issue. On one hand, Amendola has been a clutch slot receiver, coming through with numerous big catches in the last two seasons after a slow start in 2013 where he tore his groin in the first game of the season (but still fought through it to help the Pats win that game in Buffalo), but he’d miss the next four weeks. He’s missed only one game in the last two seasons, despite being banged up, especially last year when a knee issue really limited him late in the season.Danny Amendola Clutch Catch

If Amendola was being paid like a slot receiver/punt returner should be, there’d be little question whether or not the Pats would keep him. But he’s got the fifth-highest cap hit on the team and will be 31 in the fall. It’s reasonable to think he could start breaking down further in the next season or two, as the wear and tear is bound to catch up with him.

Also, 2015 made it clear that he’s not a viable backup for Julian Edelman in the starting lineup. He needs to remain as the slot receiver, with limited snaps and limited big hits. They played him 75 snaps against the Eagles on an already injured knee, he re-injured it two weeks later and had to managed for the rest of the season. What are the chances now that Amendola can put together an injury-free and highly productive season? The odds are falling with each passing year.

Still, Amendola is a warrior and the Pats would not have won Super Bowl 49 with his vital contributions. Not to mention so many clutch catches in clutch moments the last couple regular seasons. This is a tough one, because the Pats have just one other proven receiver on the team, but it’s seems entirely possible the Pats will decide to move on if Amendola won’t play ball on his contract again.

Sunday Patriots Roundup

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Things have been quiet this weekend for the Pats as free agency settles in and loses the frantic pace. This is when the Pats do their damage as value comes to the forefront.

Saturday’s re-signing of Nate Ebner was expected because really, who values great special teams free agents more than the Patriots? Ebner has been another one of those fascinating draft stories, going from a rugby player, to bit player on the Ohio State football team to suddenly being draft by the only team who could see his potential.

Ebner hasn’t been a total stranger to defensive snaps either, usually in the early part of the season, seeing time at both free and strong safety. But special teams are his bread and butter, and with the departure of Tavon Wilson, Ebner’s return provides some stability.

In visit news…

Even Jets fans have seemed to know Kerley was then kind of player that has Patriots written on him. Without a role in Chan Gailey’s offense, the Jets cut Kerley loose. He had 56 catches in 2012, but that production has fallen off each season, but he still seems like he’d be a good fit in the slot for the Pats.

That sets up an interesting situation with Danny Amendola. We’ve been waiting for the Pats to re-structure/extend Amendola’s contract for the second season in a row — he’s due to make $5 million with a $6.8 million cap hit. If the Pats were to bring Kerley into the fold, especially for something in the $2 million range, it would put even more pressure on Amendola.

Don’t get me wrong, Amendola is a valued receiver on this team. He came through with a number of big plays/catches over the last two seasons, but still, he’s 30, had more injury issues last year and is due to make more money than any other receiver. We also saw last year that it’s not quite so simple to say he can fill in for Edelman. Amendola can’t take that beating and is best served as the third wide receiver who plays out of the slot.

Perhaps having Kerley would help protect both Amendola and Edelman. But there’s no denying Kerley could fill Amendola’s role both in the slot and returning punts. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Couple nuggets from the Sunday columns:

Mike Reiss has Tre Jackson getting a knee scope after missing the two playoff games.

Chris Price has some insight on the Pats’ rumored interest in Chris Long. Always loved Long as a twitter follow, and for a low cost deal I’d be all for bringing him in but I still don’t see the need at defensive end. Extend Sheard, work something out with Ninkovich next season and groom Trey Flowers and Geneo Grissom. Chandler Jones is going to make a huge sum of money next season, the Pats should just milk this contract year out of him and let him go.