PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

chris hogan

Historical Stat Comparisons for 2017 Patriots

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Upon further review, I’m having a tough time putting this Patriots team in historical context as far as the stats go. One advantage of blogging solely about the Pats for the past decade and keeping detailed stats on each season, is that I’m able to quickly look back and compare how each season stacks up against those that came before it.

2017 feels like a mix of a lot of the bad seasons, but with just enough sprinkling of the good seasons that this year feels totally unpredictable to me.

Let’s dive in on both sides of the ball and try to find some common threads.

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Pats Posits: The Season Starts Now

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Happy New Year! The Patriots finished off their regular season by beating the Jets in frigid temperatures and improving to 13-3 on the 2017 season. It wasn’t exactly an exclamation point finish, but it was effective and seemingly injury-free. The bottom line? The Pats now have homefield advantage for the third time in four years and the last two times they’ve had it they’ve won the Super Bowl.

I’m not going to dwell too much on the Jets game. I’m sure there are plenty of takes out there extrapolating all kinds of major implications from how the Pats performed in what were some pretty tough conditions. But I don’t think there’s much to take from it, though it does finish off a full 16-game sample and in that broader regard there’s plenty to talk about.

First, we have to start with Dion Lewis, who once again carried the team as you might hope a running back would do when there are tough conditions for the passing game. It’s just such a huge relief that we made it through the regular season without another catastrophic injury. Specifically — Tom Brady, Lewis, Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola are just absolutely critical to the Super Bowl chances and it looks like all will be ready to go.

With that group upright the Pats will be a hard out for anyone, no matter how the game unfolds.

Let’s take a moment to catch our breath as the Pats await to see who they’ll play next Saturday night in the AFCDG.

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 17 vs. New York Jets

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Ah, the final gameplan of the season. These are always my favorite pieces of the week to write, and now as I sit here in California on my final day of vacation, preparing myself to return to the arctic cold of Boston, I can’t help but feel a bit relieved that the regular season prologue is nearly behind us.

Let’s be honest, at this point it’s hard to move the needle for Patriots fans. Looking back on 2017 it’s hard to recount much more than the Steeler game and the injuries. Wins are relief. Losses are catastrophic. Then we get to this point, where the Patriots will hopefully wrap up the first seed, and none of it really matters.

So here we are, staring down the barrel of another 13-3 season. A meltdown loss to the Jets at this point would be beyond surprising. Our 5-10 pals from New York adjacent are closing out a disappointing season, but they still gave the Pats trouble back in October, with the Pats getting a 4th down stop at their own 49 yard line to preserve the 24-17 win.

Considering the circumstances now, with the Pats needing a win to assure themselves of homefield advantage and the Jets ready to mail it in to the offseason, not to mention the bone chilling cold which this game will be played in, all signs point to the Pats rolling.

Here’s the gameplan…

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Breaking Down Patriots’ 3rd Down Nose Dive on Offense

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Third down is the most critical down in football and usually the Patriots are one of the best offenses in the league. In the last four seasons they ranked 6th (2014) and 4th (2016) when they won the Super Bowl and when they didn’t they ranked 16th (2013) and 11th (2015).

This season the loss of Julian Edelman loomed large for then third down offense. Edelman was then most targeted and reliable receiver with the game on the line. However early in then season the Pats didn’t fare too badly,

Through the first eight games, the Pats ranked 3rd on third down, converting 45.9 percent of their chances.

But since then they’ve fallen off dramatically, to the point where over the last four games they’ve converted just 30.2 percent of their third downs, second-worst in the league. All of Tom Brady‘s five interceptions in the last four games have come on third down.

These struggles are coming at the wrong time of year. Is this a critical flaw? Is there any hope in sight? Let’s take a deeper look.

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Malcolm Mitchell Back at Patriots Practice

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The surprising end-of-year Patriots news continued today with Malcolm Mitchell showing up in pads at practice. This means the Pats now have 21 days to activate him off of IR, though Mike Giardi reports that he could see game action as soon as this Sunday against the Jets in the season finale.

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Film Review: Patriots Third Down Offense

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The Patriots went a mind boggling 0-11 on third down against the Dolphins, a feat they hadn’t accomplished since the dark days of the early 90’s. Without Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman, the offense just couldn’t find anyone who could make a key play on the key down.

Let’s go through them one-by-one and see what went wrong and if there are any trends we can discern.

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Is 2017 Most Balanced Patriots Passing Attack Ever?

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The Patriots offense suffered a devastating blow in preseason when Julian Edelman tore his ACL. Edelman was the engine that made the offense go, the guy who made the tough catches in the biggest moments and without him there wouldn’t be two more banners hanging over Gillette Stadium

However this season the Patriots were uniquely prepared for such a loss. They added two very good running backs to go with two they already had, and gave up a first round pick for the explosive Brandin Cooks. Even after Malcolm Mitchell, a promising rookie from 2016, started the season on IR, the Patriots still had enough depth with Chris Hogan and in-season acquisition Phillip Dorsett to keep the passing offense going.

With their best receiver missing the Patriots have almost become harder to defend. We all remember the original Tom Brady motto — that his favorite receiver was the open one. Well in 2017 that might be truer than ever, as Brady has spread the ball around far more evenly than any recent season. This has made the Patriots offense even harder to stop because there’s no one to key on.

Let’s take a closer look this devastating balance that is making 2017 one of the most unique years of the Brady offense and how it stacks up historically.

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