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Patriots Training Camp Battle Preview: Defensive End

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The Patriots’ defensive end group suffered heavy departures and attrition in 2017. Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard, key passing-down contibutors for the Super Bowl 52 squad, left via free agency. When Rob Ninkovich retired just a week into training camp it was the biggest blow of all.

Outside his four-game suspension to start 2016 and Ninkovich started every game since mid-way through the 2010 season. You don’t simply replace that kind of reliability, not to mention clutch plays that the “Jet Killer” Ninkovich made on a regular basis.

Third-round pick Derek Rivers tore his ACL in training camp, another critical blow at a ravaged position. Cassius Marsh played 267 defensive snaps, then asked out. It was just too much.

The Patriots were then forced to lean completely on Trey Flowers, while using rookies Dietrich Wise and Adam Butler, Bills practice squadder Eric Lee, and later James Harrison, the strongest edge-setter of them all, as replacements.

2017’s defensive ends were a shell of what they had been since the early 2010’s, before Ninkovich and Chandler Jones started a run of having two strong starters at the top and an array of pass rushers behind them. Though in 2013 and 2014 it was pretty much just Ninkovich and Jones who miraculously played almost every snap and never got hurt.

Will things be better this year? It sure looks like it.

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Pats Should Focus on Front Seven Like 2012 Draft

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With yesterday’s allocation of a fourth-round compensatory pick, the Patriots now have their draft capital set:

  • 1.31
  • 2.43 (via SF)
  • 2.63
  • 3.95
  • 4.136
  • 6.208

The Patriots have had their struggles high in the draft lately. Only Malcom Brown (2015), Dont’a Hightower (2012) and Nate Solder (2011) remain as first- or second-round players since 2011 who are still on the team and important pieces. Otherwise there have been extensive misses and even those that they did hit on were traded away. Throw in the missing Deflategate pick and there’s no question, the Patriots need to hit on some talent in this spring’s draft.

The ideal model? When they traded up twice in 2012’s first round to add Dont’a Hightower and Chandler Jones. The impact of those two picks was immediately felt in the 2012 season and set the stage for what would become a Super Bowl-winning defense in 2014. That’s the kind of infusion up front the Pats need once again.

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Patriots Over Investment in Secondary Didn’t Pay Off

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I started blogging about the Patriots around the time that the old dynasty defense was dying. The 2007 defense squeezed the last bit of life out of Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, Mike Vrabel and other supporting members who helped define the Pats teams of the 2000s. Then the retirements and departures began and I realized that if Tom Brady was to ever get four or more Super Bowls, Bill Belichick would have to build him a new defense, mostly from scratch.

It was fascinating to see them emerge from the depths of the 2010 defense that needed turnovers to survive, to the 2014 and 2016 Super Bowl-winning squads that made huge key plays under the most pressing circumstances. But there’s no denying that 2017 was a step backwards. Yes, injury attrition had a lot to do with that, but it was just as much a string of missed draft picks and decisions to cut ties with the picks they did hit on.

I really don’t want to kick a dead horse, but I can’t help but need to vent about how this all unfolded over the past few seasons. How did the Patriots go from having the most promising young defense in the league in 2014 to what’s looking like another rebuild in less than three seasons? But is this even a rebuild this time around? Let’s dive in.

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Why Did Pats Dump Collins, Easley and Chandler Jones Again?

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Before I get into this let me say that I think most hold Bill Belichick to an impossible standard. He’s the best coach in NFL history, but that doesn’t mean he hits on every draft pick or that every personnel decision he makes turns out right. Better than the league average? Yup. More often right than not? Yes. But he’s not perfect and I don’t expect him to be.

I know the likes of Dan Shaughnessy think that bloggers like me are nothing more than fanboys who wave pom poms and blindly think everything Belichick does is infallible. But after how the Patriots defense has looked through nine games, even I have a hard time not casting a critical eye on the moves made by Belichick since last offseason.

By themselves, getting rid of Dominique Easley, Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins could’ve been easily dismissed and swept under the rug. But collectively jettisoning first round picks from 2012 and 2014 and a second round pick from 2013 now seems even more extreme as we’re forced to watch a defense that can’t get off the field, can’t disrupt a quarterback, and looks generally lifeless when they’re supposed to be rounding into form.

Why did we rationalize getting rid of them all again? Locker room cancer and was going to want too much money and freelancing? Something like those? Well at this point I’d happily take all those “problems” back since all three had more energy and life to their game than anything we’re seeing from the Patriots defense now.

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Notes on the Pats Re-Watch (and leftovers)

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legarrette blountReally wish the All-22 film was up on Mondays, it would make turning the page to the next game that much quicker and easier. Alas, the film review will have to wait until tomorrow. In the meantime I took a quick re-watch of the Pats-Steelers game.

Here are some notes and some leftovers to go with the extensive Posits post from yesterday, as well as some notes on the fallout around the league after Week 7.

— Gotta start with Chandler Jones, who is reportedly in negotiations with the Cardinals on an extension. Good for Chandler and way to move on it when it’s still October and he’s still playing great. Traditionally his play has fallen off a cliff later in the year, often due to injuries. Bertrand was acting like this trade was a huge mistake yesterday on the Sports Hub, which made me almost want to call in and yell at him.

First of all, you get Joe Thuney, who looks like he’ll start at left guard for the next decade. Then there’s Malcolm Mitchell who is the most under-the-radar rookie receiver in recent Patriots history. The fact that Mitchell is getting consistent snaps is a major positive sign, even if he’s not putting up much stats. The fact that Jonathan Cooper didn’t really work out doesn’t even affect my view at all.

It should be surprising Jones is doing well in an attacking defense. But he’d be doing different things in New England and I doubt he’d be of much help to a defense that really doesn’t need him. We should at least wait until December and maybe not until another year or two before truly deciding a verdict in this trade, but even as things sit today I’d still do it every time.

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Patriots Trade Chandler Jones to Cardinals

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That didn’t take long. Shortly after I was laying out why Pats could trade Chandler Jones, the Patriots trade Chandler Jones to the Arizona Cardinals for guard Jonathan Cooper and a 2nd round pick. Cooper was the seventh-overall pick in the 2013 draft but had fallen out of favor in Arizona after getting sidelined with an injury.

The second round pick is a major addition to the Pats draft ammo, and gives them even more ability to climb up the draft board since they don’t have a first round pick. This also clears another $7 million from the Pats salary cap, taking them to the neighborhood of $17.6 million in space.

As for Jones, the writing was on the wall and it seems like one of the few times many could see a Patriots blockbuster move coming. Jabaal Sheard and Rob Ninkovich are the top two starters at defensive end, with second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom in the mix to take the third rotational spot.

We also can’t rule out Chris Long, who makes a lot more sense now, or a significant draft pick from a deep defensive end class coming out of college.

Cooper + Scarnecchia = Exciting

Though Cooper fell down the depth chart in Arizona, he seems like the perfect kind of guard for the Patriots system. Here’s his bottom line scouting report from NFL.com:

Cooper, an extremely athletic left guard, racked up a number of all-conference awards during his four years starting, capping it off with a first-team All-American selection as a senior. He has the athleticism to play in a number of different schemes. Due to his ability to lead the way on runs and outstanding pass protection skills, he figured to be the first guard selected in the draft.

Now Cooper enters the Danta Scarnecchia school of offensive lineman-ing, an education that has transformed far less talented players into impact contributors. He’ll compete with second-year players Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason, and veteran Josh Klein for a starting spot.

It’s not hard to see why this move made sense on multiple levels. The Pats get a young and talented player at a spot of relative need, but also get a vital draft pick to help them this year. The extra cap space can be applied to players who are certainly needed long-term like Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard and Malcolm Butler.

Should the Patriots Trade Chandler Jones?

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It’s been mentioned quite a bit this offseason, and today’s piece from Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com lays the scenario out pretty well — should the Patriots trade Chandler Jones? If there’s anything this offseason made clear, any pass rusher with a heartbeat is getting paid through the roof these days, and Jones certainly has the surface numbers to easily put him out of the Patriots’ price range next offseason.

Jones has 36 sacks in his first four years, including a career-high 12.5 last season. For someone who doesn’t watch the games Jones appears on paper to be a force, but a closer look at those numbers certainly gives cause for concern. The playoffs are an easy place to start. Here are his stats:

Nothing really jumps off the page there, does it? The last three times the Patriots were eliminated from the postseason, Jones total stats are two tackles. That’s it.

Of course it’s not all about sacks. The Patriots ask their defensive ends to do a lot of different things. For instance in Super Bowl 49, containing Russell Wilson was a bigger key that sacking him, and Jones did a good job in that regard. I’m not going to make the argument that Jones isn’t a good player. He is, but he’s inconsistent and often invisible in the biggest games, and I don’t think he has the consistency or the desired demeanor the Patriots want when giving out long term deals.

Last year’s synthetic marijuana incident certainly didn’t help Jones’ cause, but it was still surprising to see Jabaal Sheard get more snaps than Jones in both playoff games. But it’s not a stretch to think Jones was passed on the depth chart for the playoffs and reduced to the sub-package pass rusher role even without the strange off-field incident during the playoff bye week.

Jones was miked up last year against the Redskins and I thought one particular pregame pep talk from Matt Patricia stuck out to me, summing up what I, and apparently the coaches, think about Chandler.

Patricia said “you’re a great player, you need to be great every week.” The other part was in essence ‘you’re too good not to be productive every week’.

Patriots In Control

The Patriots are in a good position with Jones regardless. He’ll be playing for his next contract this season and usually that adds up to career years for good players. So that’s a double edge sword. The Pats get a great season from an impact player but it will also be the final nail in the coffin for his days in New England. If he walks to a big free agent deal, the Pats still get a compensatory selection.

With the report of Chris Long visiting, it only puts a bigger spotlight on the defensive end position. Sign Long and you have plenty of depth to deal Jones. Not to mention how promising second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom could take big steps forward this year. Even without Long, it’s not insane to think the Pats could ship Jones. They did it to Richard Seymour with even less depth behind him.

There’s much uncertainty at the defensive end spot beyond this year. Rob Ninkovich, Sheard and Jones are all in the last years of their deal. Sheard would be my priority. He plays the way the Patriots want their defensive ends to play, with a toughness that jumps off the tape.

I can’t say the same for Chandler Jones. He’s athletic and strong, and can get to the quarterback in spurts. But week in and week out I truly believe the Patriots want more out of him. If they were to move Jones this offseason, and it could happen all the way up until the week before the season opener, they’d have to have Long in the fold or believe that Grissom or Flowers is ready to step into a rotational third DE role.

But again, the Pats are in the driver’s seat. They might not have Jones long-term, but they can still hope to get some playoff production out of him for one last season before he moves on. Or they can jettison him now and turn him into a draft pick that will be one or two rounds higher than the compensatory selection they’d get in 2018.

For the right deal, they shouldn’t hesitate to move him now, but I think the real action will come the first week of September after Flowers or Grissom have proven themselves and other teams have needs due to injuries.

 

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