brandin cooks

Coffin Corner: Analytics-hating Patriots Will Break Football Outsiders Database

July 19, 2017 by James Conway

In March of 2014, when Bill Belichick signed Darrelle Revis to a one-year deal, I was so convinced of the Patriots defensive dominance that I bet my boss, an extremely successful TV writer, $20 that they would go undefeated.

This same writer has written scores of televisions shows, including one of the most lucrative of the last two decades, won the most prestigious awards in television and has had success few could dream of, but give him truth-serum and I’m sure the $20 he won off of me after THE FIRST GAME was the most satisfying victory he’s ever experienced. Not to mention the slaughter in Kansas City that came a few weeks later. Not a meeting or chat goes by that he doesn’t remind me of my overconfidence. Because there is no more relished feeling in the world than schadenfreude, the pleasure in an enemy’s pain or loss.

If you need proof, just remember how many replays you watched of Roger Goodell’s disappearing act at the podium last February: “Where did he go? Back and to the left. Back. And to the left.” Anyway, you know why I made that bet with my old boss? I thought because ’07 happened that it could happen again, ignoring the fact that it was a statistical anomaly, because I bore witness to it.

You’re already seeing the Boston sports landscape head in this direction before training camp even begins, which should worry us all.

Hot take: I hated ’07. Not simply because it cost me $20 7 years later. Not simply because the gut punch Super Bowl. Not simply because I couldn’t sleep for like 5 nights after that game because the alcohol was still draining from my body. I hated it because a win never felt like a win, even by 40 points, it felt like an escape. It’s a bad thing to be a fan and simply rooting for the best team in the league is not enough, or the best team in the decade, no, it has to be perfect. Which sucks. And Bill Belichick and Tom Brady make fans feel justified, because they have created a statistical anomaly, they make numbers their bitches (see here, buy the sweatshirt).

Plenty of fans loved the Moss season, but to me ’07 was the height of hubris in Patriots nation. Thankfully, the “do your job”, “no days off” humility returned and produced two Super Bowls.

Anyway, I’ve learned my lesson. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict, they do NOT go 16-0… and add that I hope they don’t. Because competition and struggle are the only ways we humans get better at things. Besides, too many fluky things happen: fumbles, penalties, injuries, ‘integrity’-driven suspensions, etc…

Now, all that out of the way. I think the 2017 New England Patriots will have the most efficient offense in NFL history and could break Football Outsiders database in two.

Sorry Bill, but we’re talking about advance metrics.

Patriots Positional Preview: Wide Receivers

July 10, 2017 by Mike Dussault

This year’s wide receiver corps is arguably the best the Patriots have had, at least since 2007’s fireworks. There might not be that single Hall of Fame talent like Randy Moss, but there’s more depth and diversity than even the record-setting 2007 offense.

Acquiring Brandin Cooks was the highlight move of the offseason on offense, but extending Julian Edelman and re-working Danny Amendola’s contract once again, ensured continuity with Tom Brady’s most reliable targets. With Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell entering their second years in New England, they should also make some significant strides. Both receivers accomplished the rare feat of instantly clicking with Brady and the offense, and should only improve with experience.

Free agent signee Andrew Hawkins might be the sixth man on the depth chart, but he can still play. He’s 31 but consistently produced in his stints with the Bengals and Browns. It might take an injury for Hawkins to sneak on the roster, but he’s great insurance at a position where there’s rock solid depth, including a trio of youngsters who all have some promise.

It’s difficult projecting how the snaps will play out this season with so many weapons at the position, but it will sure be fun to watch.

Let’s take a look at each receiver on the roster!

Pats Posits: New Numbers, Butler to Slot? Lewis and more…

May 9, 2017 by Mike Dussault

Things might start to get a little slow here on the blog in the next few weeks due to my impending move back to Boston, especially in the first two weeks of June. Between packing up my entire house to be shipped across the country and this quiet portion of the NFL offseason, I just can’t bring myself to concoct fluff pieces just in the name of posting new content.

You know, random nebulous rankings, or barely-Patriots-related off field stuff like “Guess what Tom Brady posted on Instagram? (Don’t just go to his Instagram, read my post with his Instagram post embedded in it for maximum insight!)” or the like.

As I always say, this is a football blog and there’s not a whole lot of real football stuff going on so I’m not going to force it. I will drop my third annual season preview book with blurbs about all 90 Patriots training camp players, depth charts, statistical analysis and game-by-game breakdown plus plenty more by June 1st, when I’m due to hit the road and drive across this wonderful country, including a stop at the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Until then here’s some Pats Posits on things I’ve been kicking around.

How Do Patriots Get Three-Out-Of-Four, Twice?

March 29, 2017 by Mike Dussault

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6XfJbE6GVI

The Patriots have won two of the last three Super Bowls and all is right with the world. But slowly, my focus has shifted to the 2017 season and just what is at stake.

New England cemented their dynasty in 2004 by winning three-out-of-four Super Bowls and now are staring down the opportunity to do it again, 13 years later. I found myself looking back at the 2004 America’s Game episode above and remembering how the crown jewel of the NFL stayed focused and hungry enough to repeat as champions.

It sure won’t be easy. The target on the Patriots’ backs will be even bigger in 2017 than it was in 2004, as if we ever thought that would be possible. Any bit of the mystique that they lost in Super Bowl defeats or other season-enders is very much gone. That’s what overcoming a 25-point hole on the biggest of stages can do. If the Pats lacked the magic in 2007 and 2011, they certainly got it back in 2014 and 2016, and now they could put their franchise into another stratosphere by winning Super Bowl 52. And there are 31 teams that will be dying for a shot at them.

Here are my thoughts on what the 2004 did right and how the 2017 Patriots can learn from their successful season.

ProJo/Daniels: Former coaches rave about Patriots’ pick-ups

March 28, 2017 by Mike Dussault

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWv39lWRpog&t=37s

“They’re getting a blue collar, I would say undervalued player around the league,” Harbaugh said. “Don’t sleep on Lawrence Guy. Don’t under estimate this player. He’s a really good football player — run and pass. Love him to death. Every time I see him he gives me this big giant Lawrence Guy hug. He’s a great guy. He’ll be a leader in the locker room. I thought it was a great signing by the Patriots.”

Source: Former coaches rave about Patriots’ pick-ups

Some good quotes from former coaches in this piece from Mark Daniels, and of course it’s always nice to listen to Chuck Pagano and John Harbaugh praise players that will now be Patriots. You know it just kills them on the inside.

I think this has been a pretty surprising offseason so far. The only real slam dunk was Dont’a Hightower and even that was interesting for a bit. But in the end it worked out because Hightower got to see what things are like elsewhere around the AFC. You know the saying, if you love something set it free and if it comes back to you he’ll be smashing offensive opponents for the next four years or so.

Rex Burkhead, Lawrence Guy and Dwayne Allen are classic Patriots moves. Solid football players that weren’t atop anyone’s fit list but players the Patriots pounced on because, simply put, they’re football players. At the end of the day, that’s what made the Patriots dynasty. Not grabbing overpriced superstars in free agency or lucking out with their constantly-low-end draft picks. Just guys who play hard and love football. Of course, having a mastermind like BB to put them in position to succeed helps most of all, but you get the picture.

Spoiler Alert: Cooks Fits Patriots Offense

March 22, 2017 by Mike Dussault

In case you were wondering, yes, Brandin Cooks is a perfect fit for the New England Patriots offense. I’m not sure how anyone could possibly think that the Patriots wouldn’t figure out a way to make Cooks fit. Many have some preconceived notion that Julian Edelman is a prototype and how anyone outside of that prototype might struggle in New England.

There’s no question, Tom Brady has had plenty of receivers he just didn’t jive with, but there’s little reason to think Cooks would end up like Chad Jackson, Joey Galloway or any of the others who came with promise and flamed out. PFF put out this chart on Wednesday, but it’s really just a jumping off point.

Patriots receivers run a lot of these routes, and nobody was better at them in 2016 than the guy they just acquired, Brandin Cooks. pic.twitter.com/sNIjrym8DA

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) March 22, 2017

Resetting Patriots Offseason To Do List

March 16, 2017 by Mike Dussault

With the re-signing of Dont’a Hightower, along with the other significant free agency moves the Patriots have made over the past two weeks, the 2017 team is starting to round into form. There’s still a big question mark surrounding Malcolm Butler and, to a lesser extent, Jimmy Garoppolo, but it would appear that outside of those two most of the heavy lifting this offseason is close to done.

What we know? The offense looks ready to evolve once again with the addition of Brandin Cooks. He’ll bring a whole new level of explosiveness and if Rob Gronkowski can return to form and everyone stays healthy, who knows what the ceiling is for this offense.

Defensively, the Pats swapped Logan Ryan for Stephon Gilmore and Jabaal Sheard/Chris Long for Kony Ealy. On paper those moves look like they made the Patriots better. There are still depth questions at linebacker and defensive end, but those should be manageable. If Malcolm Butler returns it’s not crazy to think this defense will be even better than last year’s that led the league in points against.

What holes do the Patriots still have? Whose contracts could be extended or released? There’s still plenty of moves to come, and with the Pats currently having no draft picks before the third round, there’s a good chance they’ll look to round out their picks so they can still grab some impact rookies.

Here’s what I see as the priorities going forward with the rest of free agency and the draft.