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Coffin Corner: Eureka! Oh… damn.

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bill belichick

Last night, I had a tragic Eureka moment. Something popped into my head, right before it hit the pillow, quickly shared it with my wife, thought okay, I will write about this tomorrow and hit the sack. But then I woke up in the middle of the night and couldn’t get rid of it. It just hung there, a terrible thought, a stressful idea. So here we are. This is how I write at 4 o’clock in the morning. Not great so far, I have to admit.

At the beginning of this season, I wrote about LaGarrette Blount being a 1,000-yard rusher because of the offensive design and Marty Bennett and I thought that was a hot take. At the time, it seemed to be. The truth is, it was just right. And I worry that what you’re about to read, might be just right as well, which terrifies me. That is why I’m up writing this as my mutt Beagle, Wally, snores by my side. This idea, this ear worm, this feeling is so powerful that it is literally keeping me up at night.

I haven’t heard any real mention of it. Nothing on Twitter. No recent articles. Somehow even Shannon Sharpe and Skip Bayless haven’t stumbled upon it in their daily word jumble. Forget idea, ear worm, feeling or take, what you’re about to read is a theory, a theory so mind-erasingly simple you will wonder how Tomato Can Shaughnessy hasn’t made it into an annual column. You will wish you’d never heard this simple theory (no real conspiracy to it, sorry, Roger), but it will stalk you like the STD in “It Follows” and you will feel obligated for your own sanity to make nice with the next person you see, in order to pass it along and keep this awful, terrible theory at bay. But it’s coming.

WARNING: This theory may cause chest pain, migraines, anxiety. In rare cases, this theory may lead you to question everything you hold dear. 100% of recipients report unexplained loss of vision, hearing, and speech due to the alcohol consumed as a result of this theory. “No, you’re an alchawlic, you ever think about that?! Huh? You crazy rabbit,” will become your goto phrase to wife and children alike after every Patriots game as a result of this theory.

All right, enough of the build-up, here it is: I think we’re more than halfway through the last season of the Hoodie. There I’ve said it. I think 2016-2017 season will be Belichick’s last.

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MUST READ! ESPN: An Oral History of Bill Belichick

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Call Bill Belichick what you want, but these accounts of his uncompromising life — from prodigy to professional ballbuster — reveal why history might one day call him the greatest.

Source: New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick is the greatest enigma in sports

Every once and a while an amazing piece on Bill Belichick comes along and today might be one of the all time bests of those days. This oral history is fascinating and is a direct companion to David Halberstam’s Education of a Coach.

This is the real Belichick. Not the caricature the media creates because he doesn’t give them much to work with unless they ask him hard core football questions. That he’ll scoff at stupid or probing questions.

Us fans get a kick out of that, because most of the time those stories the media feels like they “have to ask”, no one really cares about. And many times the reporters themselves are just trying to gain some recognition for themselves by trying to prod Belichick “in the name of journalism.”

This is the Belichick that fascinates us Hoodie Heads. It boils down to his “Be Here Now”-esque mantra and focus on total preparation.  And let’s face it, the guy was basically incubated as a football coach from the moment he was born.

Such a great read, one to hold on to for a long time. Favorite quote from Heath Evans:

“I never had greater admiration for a man besides my father than I had for Bill after the Super Bowl XLII loss. To the 53 men in that locker room and the coaching staff, he delivered a heartfelt apology. He felt like he had really let us down. Despite 18-1 being the most bitter pill I think you can swallow in sports, when I walked out of that Super Bowl locker room that night I still left with kind of a shining moment in my mind about Bill Belichick, how a man that everybody swears is so arrogant and so self-centered is really the exact opposite.”

Pats Posits: Damn It Feels Good to Be a Hoodie

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It’s not often that a Bill Belichick legacy win comes along, but that’s what happened Thursday night. Belichick, with a rookie quarterback, guided a near-perfect performance out of the entire team around the youngster. This will be one we mention when Belichick goes into Canton and it tied him with Curly Lambeau for fourth all-time in the regular-season win list with 226.

The Patriots moved to 3-0 with a dominating effort in all phases of the game, beating the Texans 27-0.

Rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett, making the start for injured second-stringer Jimmy Garoppolo, was efficient and safe with the ball. He finished the game 11-of-19 for 103 yards and one rushing touchdown, a 27-yarder that gave the Pats a 10-0 lead which they held into halftime.

It was the second half that the Patriots truly put the pedal down, putting up a 13-play, 71-yard first drive that ended with a disappointing field goal. Then, Nate Ebner forced a fumble on the ensuing kickoff, and six plays (and two pass interference calls in the end zone) later the Pats pushed their lead to 20-0.

And it didn’t stop there. For the first time, in what seems like a long time, the Patriots played a near-perfect 60 minutes is all three phases. It wasn’t totally perfect, but it was about as close as you can expect. Especially when you’re talking about a ROOKIE QUARTERBACK IN HIS FIRST START.

A feel good edition of Pats Posits is coming at you after the jump…

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Pats Posits: We’re On to Jacoby Brissett

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The 2016 Patriots season took a drastic turn on Sunday against the Dolphins.

The Pats exploded out of the gate, with Jimmy Garoppolo throwing three touchdowns and looking Brady-esque with his pocket movement. He delivered multiple strikes, converting the first four third-downs he faced.

It was like it was 2007 again. The defense forced four punts and two turnovers in the first half. The Dolphin’s headsets were going out. Garoppolo was about mak

Then Garoppolo took this hit…

And the entire season changed course. The Pats held on 31-24, needing a game-sealing interception to seal what was a 24-3 lead. It was far more stressful than it should’ve been.

Meanwhile, Garoppolo has an AC sprain and is already out for the Texans on Thursday night.

And just like that, all the talk of Brady vs. Garoppolo comes to a screeching halt.  Garoppolo will be back this season, but he shouldn’t see the field again (we hope).

A powder keg of hot taeks was just dropped overboard to the bottom of the ocean with this injury. But it will be back. They always come back.

For now, the Pats must survive the Texans and Bills with rookie Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and protect their 2-0 record. This is one of the most fascinating coaching challenges Bill Belichick has faced. Luckily it should only last two games.

More on Brissett, Garoppolo and a defense that gave up three consecutive touchdowns and needed an interception to seal what should’ve been a blowout in the Posits…

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Pats Posits: Pats Steal Another One in the Desert

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Oh ye of little faith. Never doubt the Patriots under Bill Belichick in a football game.

For all the turnover and injury attrition, the Patriots still very much looked like the Patriots Sunday night, getting a game-ending missed field goal from Arizona kicker Chandler Catanzaro to prevail over the Cardinals, 23-21.

The defense held on for dear life as Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald started to put on a clinic, but made the last critical play (a drawn hold by Chris Long) and preserved the lead that Jimmy Garoppolo got back.

The offense had to put together a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter. Jimmy Garoppolo, despite one fumble lost, looked every bit a competent professional quarterback. He threw for a touchdown and 264 yards.

He was sacked just twice behind a makeshift offensive line that featured two backup tackles and two rookie guards.

The Pats are 1-0 while the rest of the division is 0-1. Things are looking rosey in Patriots Nation once again as we begin our voyage toward Super Bowl 51. The Bill Belichick magic is very much alive and well.

Here are the Posits on the 1-0 2016 Pats…

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The Bill Belichick Hoodie Change

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No one was more surprised than I was when Bill Belichick changed his hoodie at halftime of the 2015 AFC Championship in Denver. As most of you know by now, I’ve carved out a little niche by tracking Belichick’s gameday attire, and never before had I noted him changing his hoodie like this.

Everyone seemed to notice this bit of minutiae, but at the time I failed to see a clear reason for the switch. But as I dug into the hoodie database a little deeper, an answer became so obvious it seemed like Belichick was digging into my hoodie stats even deeper than I myself ever had!

From Hot Jacket to Sleeved Hoodie

Belichick started the game in the 2013 “Hot” jacket, which I saw as a reasonable second choice in my hoodie prediction article. Belichick was 10-1 last season in the “Hot” jacket, including the divisional round win over the Chiefs. The only loss was the stinker in Miami, the last game of the regular season.

I thought, due to weather, a hoodie was the more likely choice, so my final prediction was the 2015 Blue Nike Hoodie. Belichick was just 1-1 in that Hoodie during the season, the best win (Giants) and the worst loss (Broncos), but it seemed to make the most realistic sense given the weather outlook. It was 46 degrees at kickoff, so it was a bit of a surprise that he stuck with the Hot jacket, that was his go-to last season so it wasn’t a total shocker.

Belichick’s switch at halftime wasn’t into that 2015 Blue Hoodie, but to a never-before-worn 2015 Gray Hoodie, with uncut sleeves. Now, this is the first I’ve mentioned sleeve cutting here. At a certain point it was cutoff sleeves that defined Belichick’s hoodie. But in truth, Belichick has been cutting off the sleeves less of late.

But this was the key finding as I searched for a statistical impetus for Belichick to change his outfit.

The problem with the Blue “Hot” Jacket (which has short sleeves of course) was that Belichick had lost to the Broncos in the 2013 AFC Championship in it. Go further back and you’ll find a number of other losses to Peyton Manning and the Broncos came when Belichick had his arms exposed.

Both 2005’s Week 6 loss and the playoff season-ender to the Broncos in Denver came in the classic Gray Reebok Hoodie with the sleeves cut off. So did 2005’s first regular season loss to Peyton and that Colts, as well as 2006’s playoff season-ender in Indy. 2009’s 4th-and-2 loss in Indy came in the Blue Reebok Hoodie, and yes, the sleeves were cut off there too.

But then you look at 2003 and 2004, the height of dominance for Belichick and the Patriots over Peyton Manning, and the first two games that jump out are the 2003 AFC Championship and the 2004 AFC Divisional Round. What’s Belichick wearing in both?

Gray Hoodies with the sleeves intact. Just like he changed into for the second half of the 2015 AFC Championship.

Now some of you might say to me, “Deuce, the weather was just getting cold and he grabbed whatever random hoodie the equipment guys packed. Your stats are stupid and he doesn’t give a shit about superstitious bs like this.”

Well, you’re probably right, but with the Patriots trailing 17-9 at halftime after a slow start, is it a coincidence that he happened to pick a the same kind of sweatshirt he hadn’t worn against Manning since the last time he ended him in the playoffs, circa January 2005, ten years ago? Probably yes. BUT MAYBE NOT!

Manning and the Broncos offense would score just three more points in the game, a performance that brought back memories of the near-total shutdown the Patriots pitched in the 2003 and 2004 playoffs against him.

Perhaps if I had broken the code of the short sleeve/long sleeve paradigm when putting my hoodie prediction together, he would’ve gone with an uncut Gray hoodie from the start and the Patriots would’ve played far better in the first half.

Overall, Belichick was 8-3 against Manning when he had full sleeves on. Of the three losses, one was 2005 in a red hoodie (eeek), another came in 2008 with Matt Cassell (doesn’t really count!!) and the final one came against the Broncos in the regular season finale of 2015. With sleeves cut or in a short sleeve against Manning, Belichick was 3-4 overall.

Yes, I blame myself and now the information about the power of full sleeves against Peyton Manning is unfortunately of no use to us.

What good is a Bill Belichick Hoodie Database if it’s not used correctly? At least we now (might) know why he went back to the trusty old gray hoodie in a time of need.

Bill Belichick Hoodie

Current stats through 2015 season.

 

NFL’s Best GMs 2016: Belichick #1 – Rotoworld.com

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The reputation of “Bill Belichick, coach” has typically outpaced that of “Bill Belichick, GM,” but just look at what he’s done this offseason. The Patriots needed a receiver. Badly. What they didn’t need to do was give Mohamed Sanu or Marvin Jones $35 million. So instead of overpaying mid-range talents who were available for a reason, Belichick looked for help where others rarely tread: The restricted free agent market. Chris Hogan is now a Patriot for the next three years at the bargain price of $12 million. As Belichick was bringing Hogan aboard he was shipping star Chandler Jones out. The master of “one year too early instead of one year too late,” Belichick knew he wouldn’t be re-signing Jones next offseason. In lieu of letting Jones walk for a compensatory pick, Belichick turned him into a second-rounder and first-round reclamation project, OG Jonathan Cooper. Hogan and Jones represent what Belichick has always been. A zigger in a group of zaggers, and a futurist who doesn’t look at this trophy case. Belichick is the greatest of all time because of the games he’s won in the fall and winter, but it’s the work he does in the spring and summer that sets the table.

Source: NFL’s Best GMs 2016 – Goal Line Stand – Rotoworld.com

Love that this comes out the day after Belichick makes one of the most notable moves of his personnel career, cutting a first-round pick just two seasons into his career. Yes, it’s easy to say Dominique Easley was the biggest disappointment of Belichick’s tenure with the Pats, but guess what? Belichick doesn’t care. At all.

My favorite are those who love to say “Belichick can’t draft”. To that I always say compared to who? Let’s talk about all the coach/GMs that have had 16 drafts with the same team and sustained this level of success. Oh right, there aren’t any others. Not to mention the Pats have rarely had any top-15 picks, where the truly elite talent in the draft is selected each year. Belichick has built and re-built this team on both sides of the ball, with complete turnover outside the quarterback position, and had literally no drop off.

The draft is a crapshoot and no one who matters is keeping score. Sometimes you hit on guys, sometimes you miss. There’s no exact science. But I can tell you we’re far better off drafting for value and fit over need — selecting multiple players in the middle rounds over one player in the early rounds. Belichick gets what a crapshoot the draft is and that’s why quantity always trumps the perceived quality of early round picks.