PatsPropaganda

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Breaking Down Patriots Run Game Struggles vs. Jags

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In a thrilling comeback victory against the Jaguars, the Patriots advanced to their eight Super Bowl in the Brady-Belichick era, and are one win away from winning three out of four Super Bowls for a second time in this century alone. The Patriots were forced to rely on Brady’s fourth quarter heroics in a matchup that featured the Jaguars ferocious front seven completely shut down the Patriots run game. Dion Lewis, after averaging 142.3 yards from scrimmage in his past three games, was held to just 34 yards on the ground and 32 through the air. If you take away his 18 yard first down run that sealed the win, Lewis ran for just 16 yards on eight carries (2.0 YPC), a far cry from his season average of 5.0 YPC, which was second in the NFL among running backs.

Almost all of the offense had to come through Brady and the passing game, and while they delivered, the Patriots will need a better effort on the ground 11 days from now against Philadelphia. An interesting pattern that I discovered is that, when the Patriots (not including “runs” by Brady and Hoyer) rushed for 4.4 or more yards per carry in a game, the Patriots were 9-0 this season (including playoffs), and had an average point differential of +15.1 in those games. However, in the nine games when they rushed for less than 4.4 yards per carry, the Patriots were 6-3, and had an average point differential of +5.7. Of course, if there is one quarterback that can overcome a lack of success on the ground, it’s Tom Brady, as he is the only quarterback in NFL history to have a winning record in games in which he is forced to throw 50+ times (19-9, a .667 winning percentage).

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Film Review: Pats vs. Jags AFC Championship

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After a day of wonky performance by NFL Game Rewind I was finally able to get it to function long enough to take a look at the All-22 film from the AFC Championship. It’s always nice to get a clean strategic view of the game without my stomach turning after every bad Patriots play.

I came away even more impressed with how the Jags executed, especially early. But really from the start of the second half you could see the Patriots taking their game to another level while the Jags were slowly starting to fade as they got closer and closer to a potential win. It’s just remarkable how steady the Patriots are. Some of the late punts in the second half left an even bigger impression on me because most teams would’ve packed it in.

Aside from the Patriots perseverance it was clear that the flaws of the 2017 team were still very much there. And with Dion Lewis mostly ineffective until the final game-sealing carry, it’s just incredible what Brady did, almost exclusively with Danny Amendola.

Great play designs, great adjustments and an unflinching approach to the game were the hallmarks of this performance.

Here are a bunch of my quick-hit thoughts.

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Patshow #122: AFC Championship Recap Show!

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Here’s today’s hot-off-the-live-video-press episode of Patshow, our AFC Championship recap edition.Thank you to everyone who has supported Patshow this year! It’s grown at an incredible rate here in the last couple months and we hope we can continue to bring the fans the kind of show they’ve been clearly dying for. It’s our latest and greatest episode yet, we talk Jags, breakdown Danny Amendola’s clutch performance and answer a ton of viewer questions! Enjoy!!

Pats Posits: Belichick and Brady off to Super Bowl No. 8

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The Patriots defeated the Jaguars 24-20 in the AFC Championship and will return to the Super Bowl for the third time in four years where they’ll face the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots faced the Eagles the last time they were attempting three-of-four titles and defeated them in Super Bowl 39.

There will be plenty of time to jump into that intriguing matchup, but for now we have to talk about the AFC Championship. Really, it was one of the most remarkable games in Patriots history. The Jaguars played absolutely perfectly for the first 50 minutes. They attacked the Patriots’ weaknesses, they played mistake-free and they even knocked out Rob Gronkowski. Dion Lewis was getting nothing on the ground and the Jaguars had a number of early sustained drives.

But the Pats kept battling like they always do. Without Gronk or a running game, Brady, with some help from super clutch Danny Amendola, willed the Patriots to victory. Of course it didn’t come without the defense turning around after getting shredded early. They once again made the key plays that opened the door for the Patriots to come back. Stephon Gilmore‘s pass defense sealed what was a championship-worthy performance by a defense comprised of many new faces from last season.

I always say you can never truly appreciate a win until you’ve accepted a loss is very possible, and this game had that. Of course 28-3 has ruined us in that regard because now, more than ever, we know the Patriots are never truly out of it until the clock reads zero.

This never gets old. And the Patriots keep finding new ways to demonstrate just how mentally and physically tough they are. The Jags had all the look of the teams that beat the Patriots at home in the playoffs — the two Ravens teams and one Jets team all had a swagger about them, a fearlessness that Jacksonville seemed to emanate as well. But this time their clean game didn’t matter because the Patriots simply outplayed them in the final ten minutes.

It was perfect football in all three phases and in tight games like this that’s what makes all the difference. When it came time to finish the game the Jags couldn’t do it, and Tom Brady did.

Here are the Posits on another crazy epic playoff win.

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Pregame Meal: Make The Teal Squeal

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It’s conference championship Sunday, the day of football I really live for as a football fan. Of course the Super Bowl is the Super Bowl, but it’s also more of an exhibition feel while the championship games take place at home venues packed with home fans and the celebrations are alway a full team party. Yes, we have to get there first and I’m still trying to imagine explaining to summer ’17 Mike how nervous I am that it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars standing between the Pats and SB52.

But here we are… back in this great game for a seventh-straight time. In 2011 it took a miracle ending to avoid overtime with the Ravens. In 2014 and 2016 it was pretty much a cake walk. In 2013 and 2015 the banged up Pats just couldn’t quite get past the Broncos in Denver.

And then there’s 2012. 2012 is the game that scares me just because it was the only time the Pats lost an AFCCG at home. That Ravens team got a perfect outing from Joe Flacco and their defense was at the height of its powers. Everything lined up just right for the Ravens and they dominated the second half. Can this Jags replicate that game? I don’t think so, but they certainly have defensive talent.

The Jags line to victory is clear — don’t turn it over and force Brady into an early mistake that doesn’t allow him to ever get comfortable. Then, maybe then, the Jags can put forth the kind of 60 minutes of fearless and mistake-free football needed to beat the Patriots at home in the AFC Championship. But it’s going to take a special effort and a complete meltdown by the Pats in all three phases.

But let’s be honest, we WANT to be nervous today. What fun would it be if we all just convinced ourselves that this is a pop warner team that the Pats will roll by 40-plus points? So for the next few hours I’ll continue to imagine the perfect Blake Bortles game, a young defense that is all over the Pats right off the snap, while Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead are hit in the backfield over and over.

All I know is that I never would’ve predicted the Pats laying a 28-3 egg in the Super Bowl, so who knows, maybe it could just be the Jags day today?

Here’s the gameplan and hoodie prediction in case you missed them.

Alright, I feel like I sufficiently worried myself just enough. Here’s a bunch of other pregame thoughts…

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Unfortunate Brady Injury Allowed Pats to Control the AFCCG Narrative

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Last week the Patriots were on the defensive in the media all week as the Seth Wickersham not-really-a-bombshell article dominated airwaves and press conferences. This week, things have been a little different, albeit from not ideal circumstances, an injury to Tom Brady’s hand.

The hand story was even strong enough to make an impact on NFL lines but there was no mistake that the Patriots were driving the Brady story, not being dragged along by it. The team went out of their way to make sure everyone was aware of the injury, from announcing Brady would not speak to the media and would be on the injury report, to having Brady wear his gloves and coyly avoid questions when he did finally speak on Friday. Heck they even had Hoyer in two gloves on Friday during practice after he was only wearing one on Thursday.

Behind the scenes things seemed even more haphazard. I’m not a big “sources” guy and I don’t really care to try and break stories, but there are people who occasionally send me inside info. Sometimes it’s been right, sometimes it’s been wrong, and that’s why I always just sit on it and see what happens. This week was no exception, but the info ran the gamut from Brian Hoyer is going to play to it’s no big deal.

At this point I think the “no big deal” is the truth for more reasons than just Kirk Minihane and Michael Felger suddenly entering a world of non-bullshit-speculation to reassure everyone it was just a few stitches and Brady would be fine. The Patriots seemed to squeeze every last ounce of juice from the story they could get, and even Brady had that subtle smile at his presser that just made me think this was being blown up to control the narrative.

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Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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The New England Patriots host the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday in the AFC Championship, for the right to represent the conference in Super Bowl 52. It’s New England’s seventh-straight conference championship game, trying to win three-of-four Super Bowls for the second time with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. Crazy.

This was a weird year in the NFL as the power structure, aside from the Patriots, has mostly been turned over. After years of being a punchline, the Jaguars introduced their fully-healthy defense to the league behind sporadic but effective Blake Bortles, who has played two playoff games of turnover-free football. For all the talk of the Jags’s defense being the only threat, their offense was 5th in points and 6th in yards.

Pats-Jags doesn’t have the same feel as AFC Championships against the Colts, Ravens and Broncos , but the Jaguars have earned the right to become the latest contender to try and knock off Tom Brady and Bill Belichick at home in the AFCCG, something only the 2012 Ravens did.

Tom Brady’s apparent thumb injury adds a new level of intrigue, with the Patriots being noticeably feeding the flames. Ryan Hannable summed it up nicely here.

What do the Patriots need to do to beat the Jaguars and get back to the ‘ship? Here’s the gameplan.

 

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