Pats Posits: New Chargers Chapter

In recent years, the Pats’ playoff games, especially in the early rounds lacked a certain excitement that was present in the early years of the dynasty. Epic matchups in 2001 (Raiders/Tuck Rule), 2003 (Titans) and 2004 (Colts) gave way to snoozers against the Jaguars, Tebow Broncos and the Texans.

When was the last divisional round that really made you sweat? Surely not Marcus Mariota and the Titans last year. No, you’d have to go back to 2014 against the Ravens, a team that was just eliminated by the now Los Angeles Chargers that the Pats will face this Sunday. And really, that’s been the most anticipated matchup since 2004.

At this point in the run, it’s far more entertaining to face teams that the Pats have history with. Teams that we can even talk ourselves into them losing to, and that’s what they’ll get with the Chargers. I’m excited to see one of the old guard coming to town.

After living in California for 18 years, I caught a fair number of Pats-Chargers games, starting with one of the best sports experiences of my life in the 2006 AFC Divisional Round. I also caught the 2008 Chargers beatdown of the Cassel Pats, the gutsy 2010 bounceback win as well as the 2014 springboard that sparked the SB49 run. So yes, of all the Pats’ rivals, none have I had a more close-up experience with than the Chargers. So I’m relishing the chance to see another chapter unfold.

Outside of the games I attended there have been plenty of other interesting games — the first time the dynasty died in 2005, the 2007 AFC Championship, the Wilfork interception game of 2011. Pats-Chargers didn’t have the same sizzle as Pats-Colts but in terms of rivals from the 2000’s they are right there with the Steelers.

Last year the Pats snuffed out the Chargers 21-13, in a game I’ll have to revisit this week.

Phillip Rivers has never beaten Tom Brady. His one win over the Pats was that 2008 year and ever since then he’s lost the last four. Twice have the Pats knocked out the Chargers, the first time in 2006 and then again a year later in 2007 in the AFC Championship. Is this where he finally gets Brady? It’s not the best team he’s had nor the most favorable conditions but at this point Rivers should be as prepared and relaxed (if you could ever call him relaxed) about coming to Foxboro.

Rivers played on a torn ACL in that game while LaDainian Tomlinson was last seen sitting on the bench trying to keep warm while dealing with an injury of his own. It wasn’t a perfect win for the 2007 Pats, but they grinded it out despite a hobbled Brady, riding Laurence Maroney to get to Super Bowl 42.

Last week I felt like this was the best matchup for the Pats but now I think it’s going to be the toughest game given how poorly the offenses of Baltimore and Houston looked in the wild card round. The Chargers’ offense wasn’t all that much better and really, Rivers isn’t exactly playing lights out right now.

They’ve had 11 turnovers in their last five games. If there’s one thing they cannot do in Foxboro it’s turn the ball over and the Patriots’ ballhawking ways have returned this season. As I’ve always said, it takes a near-perfect 60-minute game to beat the Pats at home, and the signs don’t exactly point to the Chargers being able to play that game.

Really, the key guy as I see it is Melvin Gordon who missed time this season with one knee injury then appeared to bang up the other one yesterday. He had just 40 rushing yards on 17 carries and hasn’t broken 100 yards since early November. He missed weeks 13-15 and hasn’t broken 42 yards rushing since his return.

Last year against the Pats, Gordon had an 87-yard touchdown run, but just 45 yards on his other 13 carries.

Why I liked the matchup against the Chargers is because they’re the most traditional offense left in the AFC to face. Stephon Gilmore can matchup on Keenan Allen and after that who is really scary in the passing game? It will be up to guys like Mike Williams, Antonio Gates and Travis Benjamin to win this game for LA.

But only if the Pats stop Gordon on both the ground and through the air. The gameplan at this point in my study seems already obvious — have Gilmore eliminate Allen and focus the rest of you efforts all on Gordon. If Patrick Chung can’t handle 38 year-old Gates the Pats don’t deserve to win.

As for the Chargers defense they sure looked good against the overwhelmed Lamar Jackson in the wild card round. They have talent at all levels of the defense and just as our defense matches up well with their offense, their defense has the pieces to matchup with us.

The likely matchups — safety Derwin James on Gronk and cornerback Desmond King on Edelman. The Chargers were the best tight end-covering team in the league this season so don’t expect a vintage Gronk game.

But the game will be won or lost by the Pats’ offensive line and the key as it was for all of 2018 will be to lean on Sony Michel and James White. An effective ground game forces Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa to set the edge instead of just pin their ears back and rush Tom Brady over and over. A one-dimensional passing Patriots team plays right into the Chargers hands.

This is a winnable game for the Pats if they do what made them so good at home this year — balanced offense, strong fundamental team defense. The two big questions are if Rivers has a perfect lights out game in him and if the Pats can be effective on the ground.

If both happen we’ll have a track meet on our hands, but with a banged up Gordon and Rivers playing just okay, plus two cross-country flights in the span of six days, the Chargers will have an uphill fight.

With a week off after looking primed in the regular season finale, the Patriots should come out and play their best game of the year. With no mobile quarterback to worry about and minimal offensive wrinkles, the defense should play fast and in sync.

Offensively, they should begin riding Michel, Burkhead and White all the way to Atlanta. Rivers vs Brady? Or Gordon vs Michel? This one will have a bit of a different twist and add perhaps the final chapter to one of the more notable AFC rivals of the last two decades.