Pats Posits: Here We Go Again

The Patriots finished off their 2018 with perhaps their most complete game of the season. Most importantly, the Pats survived the 2018 campaign with the key pieces intact.

Against the Jets, the offense spread the ball around and had success both on the ground and through the air. Despite reports of his decline, Tom Brady looked every bit like his same old self.

The defense once again put together a strong home performance. The continued playmaking of Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy, along with shutdown corner Stephon Gilmore, have rounded this into one of the more underrated of Belichick’s defenses.

They’ve earned the right to get a bye and a home game. After that, we’ll just have to see. A lot can happen over the next two weekends. Maybe they will have to prove themselves on the road, or maybe not.

Let’s dive in with a bunch of travel-delayed Posits!

— First, a moment to appreciate that we are about to embark on another Brady-Belichick playoff run. Still can’t quite fathom that we’ve been getting these for 17 years. Nothing was expected in those first three Super Bowl runs, now expectations are through the roof and any cracks or decline are magnified. Try to enjoy it now like you did then, without an agenda comparing this team to past teams. They’re good. They’ll give it all they have for any three opponents they play, wherever they play them.

— Found these pressure stats fascinating. I can’t say I would’ve thought they were this good with their pressure on third down, but I do think it highlights how good they are when they’re winning on first down.

— The million dollar question is how these Patriots will finish the playoffs. Are they the resilient bunch they were in ’14 and ’16 that overcame incredible deficits on their way to winning two more Super Bowls? Or are they the kind of team that will fall flat, most likely in the AFC Championship like 2013 and 2015? Those two teams really had some easy injury excuses. 2013 was really a reset year on offense, somewhat like this year was, but the biggest different this year is they have a potent ground game, even if the receivers aren’t quite as unstoppable as we might think they should be.

— The team we saw against the Jets is the great home Patriots team and that’s the team that must show up for the next three games. We just never saw that team on the road this year which is both strange and concerning.

— For the Divisional Round I’d want Chargers, Texans then Ravens in order. Yes, Rivers has never beaten the Patriots, but they’re the most traditional offense of the group and those give the Pats the least problems, especially at home. They’ve seen enough of the Texans the last few years to at least have a jump on preparation, while it’s a new Ravens attack that scares just about all of us. It’s pretty obvious that dual threat running backs can get the Pats D on their heels and make things far too interesting. Still, hard to ask for much more than seeing a rookie quarterback in the playoffs. Nothing to do but sit and wait to see how things unfold this weekend.

— There just weren’t a lot of secrets about this Patriots team in 2018, the weird part being that they were a mostly healthy team that just had trouble with non-playoff teams on the road. Bizarre that none of the teams they lost to made the playoffs. Maybe they were just bored? If they make the tackle at the end of the Dolphins team this is pretty much the same old 12-4 team. Amazing what a difference that one play and 11-5 makes in a lot of narratives.

Plenty to jump back into this week as I’ll focus on wrapping up the regular season before getting into playoff preview mode. It’s one of the final exciting playoff runs for Bill and Tom, nothing will take that excitement away from me.