Patriots Gameplan: Week 2 at New Orleans Saints

The 0-1 Patriots travel to New Orleans Sunday for an intriguing matchup against Drew Brees and the 0-1 New Orleans Saints. The Patriots haven’t started a season 0-2 since 2001 (aka Tom Brady‘s first year as a starter) and after the terrible showing in the season opener, New England’s backs are already against the wall. Kind of.

As we discussed on Patshow this week, this season already has some drama and that can be a good thing. We’ve lived a 16-0 season (and the ensuing 18-1 finale) and that thrill of will-they-or-won’t-they lose a game was special. But we don’t need to live again. 2017 is going to be a battle, that much is already clear. Losing Edelman, then Hightower AND Amendola going down in the first game? Kinda hard to top that outside of losing you know who.

Frankly injuries are usually the only thing that keeps Belichick and Brady from going to the Super Bowl every year, and it’s fair to wonder if this team has already lost too much. The difference this year is that they’ve all happened so early in the year. This isn’t 2009, 2011, 2013 or 2015. Those all featured late heavy-impact injury losses like Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, Andre Carter and yes, Julian Edelman. Once again it will actually be any late-season injuries that define this team’s championship hopes.

I’m still holding my breath for the Patriots to make some significant in-season personnel moves. This team still feels like a work-in-progress at this point.

And now they return to the site of the worst regular season loss in BB/TB history.

Here’s my gameplan for pulling out a win by any means necessary in New Orleans.

Offensive Gameplan

If you saw what Sam Bradford did to this Saints defense last week you should feel pretty good about the Patriots’ chances to move the ball and score points, especially down the field. But let’s remember the Saints will be in their home opener, play with something to prove and be hyped to play the Patriots. Expect them to play better, at least early. Still, De’Vante Harris is going to have a big ole target on his back, as will the three rookies who play significant snaps.

There was a clear intent to establish the deep passing game in the opener and the offense sputtered as a result of it. This offense must re-establish their short passing game as the engine that keeps the sticks moving. James White, Dion Lewis and Rex Burkhead should be where they do their most consistent damage, while Cooks, Hogan and Gronk do their damage downfield. I’d lean on the running backs to preserve Gronk as much as possible. They cannot afford to lose him now.

This should be an expanded game for Phillip Dorsett. It will be interesting to see if he’s gaining any Brady trust. He’s the wild card in this wide receiver mess and could be the one who determines how good this Patriots offense can be.

Can the Patriots weaponize their new speed? The Saints’ defense looks like a favorable second target.

Defensive Gameplan

Here are some of the defensive adjustments I thought of, but really this game is just about getting a win. The Saints are going to move the ball. They are going to score. Let’s not get too wrapped up in how much and how far. Let’s get a win.

Probably no Hightower, and they have to get Jordan Richards off the field, especially with the Saints power run game featuring Adrian Peterson and Mark Ingram. The Saints are going to test every part of this Patriots’ defense, because every part of it was exposed by the Chiefs. Matching personnel between Alvin Kamara and the power guys will be critical.

Against Peterson/Ingram, match with David Harris and Elandon Roberts rotationally. They can also go heavy with Guy-Branch-Brown-Flowers front. To me, Guy is the kind of guy you need in a game like this because he’s been a disruptive pass rusher, but is also big enough to hunker down in the run game.

It’s against Kamara where things get interesting. Kyle Van Noy (who won’t come off the field) is the only linebacker who has much athleticism. Perhaps Devin McCourty is an option covering him. The screen game will be a focal attack point and must be dealt with.

This defensive game hinges on three rookies. Undrafted Harvey Langi and Adam Butler, and fourth-round pick Dietrich Wise. If the Patriots get better play at the linebacker position (Langi) and disruptive play up front (Wise and Butler), they’ll make the plays necessary to beat Drew Brees at home. All shined in the preseason and now it’s time to do it for real.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. 60 minutes: This one is going to be back and forth, with moments both exciting and bleak. It’s just a matter of time before the Patriots’ offense starts to really click and establish a new identity. But there could still be stretches where they sputter, on both sides of the ball. The key on both sides will be to play a full game, no matter the ups and downs.
2. Takeaways: The defense started the season off right forcing a fumble on their very first play of the season. What 2010 taught us is that no matter how bad your defense is, takeaways can make up for it. In a game against a great quarterback takeaways are worth their weight in magic hoodie dust.
3. Don’t force it… but take it if it’s there: Normally I’d be saying just work Lewis, White and Burkhead underneath over and over and over, but this Saints secondary looked in such disarray you just have to attack them. So let’r rip to Cooks and Hogan, and Gronk in the red zone, just don’t forget to take the easy completion and don’t try to force the point with an aerial assault that’s not quite in sync yet.
4. First Down D: Wrote a bit on this one this week, but Pats biggest problems were primarily first down problems, including the big plays. It all starts with first down, especially against the run, but also against the pass, where I expect the Saints will take their shots out of power personnel. This is a passing-QB game, it’s about collapsing the pocket. Winning the line of scrimmage is where it all starts and the Saints offensive line is young with a rookie left tackle, Ryan Ramczyk. Attack!
5. Win: Not going to fret too much about how the finer points of this one look as long as it’s a tough, 60-minute battle. A win will be a win and I’ll take anything I can get. 49-48? Let’s do it.

Prediction: Patriots 34, Saints 27