The 12-2 New England Patriots look to take another step toward securing homefield advantage as they welcome the 3-8 New York Jets. The Jets beat the Pats in Week 16 of 2015, helping to knock them from the first overall seed. This time the Pats are at home and against Bryce Petty they’ll look to dispense with the recent spat of close games with the green and white.
Just four weeks ago in the Meadowlands, the Pats overcame a 17-13 hole with nine straight points to win 22-17. But now the Jets are already focusing on the offseason and the Pats are looking to prevent a repeat of last year’s collapse that allowed the AFC Championship to be played in Denver instead of New England.
Here’s the gameplan for a Christmas Eve edition of Patriots-Jets…
Offensive Gameplan
Against Denver, we saw Dion Lewis showcase his ability to generate tough yards between the tackles. This is the latest twist to an already versatile offense. Their backfield has the spectrum covered, from James Develin to James White, with LeGarrette Blount and Lewis in between. There’s nothing to key on because you have to defend all of it.
Last time against the Jets, Lewis had the big day (six rushes, 24 yards; four catches for 34 yards) and he’s only more effective now. But the possibilities with the backfield are still being explored, so this is a good chance to play a bit, not only with Lewis/White sets, but other tomfoolery to keep the opposing playoff opponent scouts more to think about.
The Jets defense always plays us hard but the key, as it has been this year, is the Pats dedication to their run game. It shouldn’t take much to send the Jets thoughts to the awaiting beaches of the offseason. The best way to do that, and to protect Tom Brady and Julian Edelman, is to stick to the run game.
Make them chase Lewis, then make them tackle Blount. Break their will, shorten the game. Protect the most important pieces (though one of those is Blount).
Defensive Gameplan
The Jets had just 64 yards rushing last time around, if that happens again this week it could get ugly. Ryan Fitzpatrick always threw for a bunch of yards on the Patriots defense throughout the years. His 269-yard, two touchdown performance wasn’t that surprising to me.
The Patriots defense has gotten better each week, there’s no reason or excuse for them to take a step backward against the Jets.
The biggest question for me is whether they can continue to generate takeaways. Those were what they missed most when they were struggling early on. And takeaways are critical in the postseason.
Last week the defense wanted to make Trevor Siemian look like a young quarterback. Well here’s another one.
5 Points of Emphasis
1. Establish and maintain the run – Yeah, this is a cliche but some games cliches are true. Test them with all three of the backs and see how they react/how much fight they put up. How much will the Jets want to tackle Blount in December in Foxborough when their season is already over. Keep the bus warm and keep ramming it at them all game long.
2. Shorten the game – Be methodical on offense. Get in the right plays. Stay balanced. Control field position. That’s how you slowly strangle the life out of a team that just wants their season to be over. Anyone can get up for a track meet. It can’t be a back-and-forth score fest, which are what I always feared most with Fitz, even if he did only get a couple off us, most of them were close until he started turning the ball over.
3. Branch, Brown & Valentine – It’s been a lot of fun to watch this trio in 2016. All are playing at a high level. Brown’s recent surge in big plays has taken his game to then next level, while Branch has been dominant playing a lot at nose tackle. Valentine has developed and is playing with greater fire now that I ever saw in any of his college highlights. These three will be key to winning the battle in the trench and putting the game entirely on Petty’s arm.
4. Special special teams – We must appreciate how much of the dirty work in winning football games is done by the special teams. The Patriots specialists, despite some occasional hiccups early in the year, have had far more impact on Patriots wins than Patriots losses. The Jets special teams are playing for jobs next year now, but watch the Patriots special teams come through time and again with field position, tackling and key points.
5. Win and stay healthy – I’m trying to tone down the injury talk. Two more games to go. We know what’s at stake and who the most important players are. Fingers crossed. Say a little prayer. As for getting the win, it would put the pressure on the Raiders who play the Colts later in the day. Pats need to win out or have the Raiders lose at least one for homefield.
This 2016 team distanced themselves from the 2015 version last week. Putting forth a strong performance against the Jets that builds on that win in Denver would do so even more.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Jets 6
