Patriots Gameplan: Week 14 at Miami Dolphins

Miami and Denver are unquestionably the worst two places for the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady Patriots dynasty. They’ve seen three seasons ended in Denver, while Miami has been their most consistent division road struggle.

In 16 trips to Miami, the BB/TB Pats are 7-9. They had a nice run from 2010-2011 to briefly claim a winning record in South Beach. But since then the Pats managed just one win, a strong season-closing performance by the 2016 squad.

There’s no secret the Pats have been a home-road Jekyll and Hyde this season. The disparity has never felt bigger and now we’re at a critical time of the season. The proving ground.

What do the Pats have to do in Miami to get their second win in three years? Here’s the gameplan.

Offensive Gameplan

Is it just as simple as don’t get Rex Burkhead, Sony Michel, or James White hurt? Right now getting to the playoffs with those three not on the injury report is all I care about.

Obviously, Edelman and a hopefully-healing Rob Gronkowski are critical too, but I think the ground game is the true engine of the offense now. What won’t work is spreading the field with Gordon, Edelman, Gronk and Hogan and trying to pick defenses apart.

So the key this week is obvious, lean on the backs including Develin. The offensive line is built for it and Miami’s defense has given up over 500 rushing yards the last three games.

Defensive Gameplan

Just as the run is a big part on the offensive side, stopping the run comes first for the defense too. In road defeats against the Lions and Titans the Patriots gave up over 150 yards on the round in each.

It was an effect of overall sloppy play that has marred the Pats defense in not only those two games, but against the Bears (134 rushing yards allowed) and the Jags (101 rushing yards allowed.

This is a defense built on team play and tackling, which they’re a league-best at. 

As others have noted, the Patriots have the NFL's lowest missed tackle rate at 9.0%, per @PFF. If that holds through the end of the season, it would be their best mark since 2010:

2017: 12.6%
2016: 12.7%
2015: 11.5%
2014: 13.8%
2013: 10.6%
2012: 10.4%
2011: 11.4%
2010: 8.6%

— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) December 5, 2018

This is also reflected in their Bend-Don’t-Break excellence. All signs are pointing to this being a good defense, but for some reason, on the road against sub-par teams, they’re inconsistent. 

When a team defense without an array of super freaks doesn’t play together it can get ugly quick. But here we are in November and it’s time for the Patriots defense to build off the road win against the Jets, which was still had its stumbles.

Kyle Van Noy is getting national attention as he should, he’s proven to be a versatile every-down linebacker able to blow up plays anywhere on the field. His ascension has made up for Dont’a Hightower’s reduced role. Van Noy and Ja’whaun Bentley are the future.

Lawrence Guy had one of his best games as a Patriot against the Vikings and Malcom Brown was solid, winning praise for great hustle. As this group goes, so goes the defense. Trey Flowers will be as effective as the others allow him to be.

Stop old ass Frank Gore and force Ryan Tannehill into long yardage where the Patriots defense has truly been excelling and putting themselves in great position to win.

Five Points of Emphasis

1. Trench Warfare –  this game will be won on both sides of the ball by who can ground and pound it. Hopefully, this takes some heat off of Brady. The o-line and Guy/Brown are the keys and must set the physical tone.
2. Rex Burkhead – Rex should get every chance to put himself on display for the NFL, both carrying and catching. A couple exciting touchdowns could really get the hype train going for the ’18 Pats.
3. Gronk Bounceback – Rough week for Gronk after a bad game against the Vikings. He’s better than he showed last Sunday but the miles are adding up and the Pats don’t have any other option. A Dwyane Allen return would be huge for getting Gronk right and maybe allowing him to be more effective when he doesn’t have to play every down. A road Gronk spike would feel nice.
4. Edelman Spark – Edelman could use a solid game himself, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him play well in Miami. Though to be honest, I trust Edelman so much he could stink the rest of the year and I’d still be sure he’d have 8/100 in the divisional round. I do think he’ll have a game where he reminds everyone what an impossible cover he still is.
5. Win – At this point it’s all that matters, even if the style points aren’t perfect. Still, the team should be peaking in theory and you’d hate to see a regression game, or worse a team-changing injury this late in the season. Get the W. Stay healthy and turn the page to the Steelers. Oh boy.

Prediction: Patriots 28, Dolphins 13