Patriots Gameplan: AFC Championship at Kansas City Chiefs

Another year, another AFC Championship game. I still remember when it was just exciting to be playing the best real football game of the year. Yes, the Super Bowl is the one that counts most but that’s a drawn-out exhibition. The conference championship games feature home crowds and weather. As a pure football fan, these are the games I most enjoy watching.

Our eighth-straight is every bit as exciting because it’s in a hostile environment. Most aren’t picking the Patriots to win and they’ve got poor history on this field, plus they were one of the worst road teams we’ve seen under Bill Belichick. The questions are constantly thrown around now, is this the end of Belichick and Brady?

Well it’s been clear how much fight they still have in them and there’s no doubt the Patriots will go down swinging with all they got against the Chiefs.

But yes, we’re close to the end, so it’s best to savor every second of once again being on the second-biggest stage. Here’s the gameplan for a satisfying victory and a trip to a third-straight (!!!!!) Super Bowl game.

Offensive Gameplan

As it’s been all season, Sony Michel is the x-factor. We know Brady, Edelman and White should handle the bulk of the chain-moving plays. But if the Patriots get Michel going in conjunction with them, the Chiefs will be in a tough position.

An effective ground game eats clock and keeps the Chiefs offense off the field. The power run game was clearly effective in the first meeting and there’s every reason to think the Chiefs poor run defense will be the team’s achilles heel. If Michel got 24 carries last time against these guys, imagine what they’ll do now having Burkhead to throw out there too?

Kansas City’s focus must be to stop Edelman and White if they’re to have any chance to containing the Patriots offense. Along with Michel it puts a major focus on the middle of the field and the coverage of slot corners, safeties and linebackers. That’s where the Pats will win or lose.

It’s scalpel time. It’s vintage Patriots offense time. Balanced. Favorite receiver the open one with at least two superior weapons that can make critical plays. And a power ground game that makes it so hard to stop.

Right now this looks like the ideal Brady offense to win a Super Bowl. Let’s see if they can get them there.

Defensive Gamplan

The Patriots defense will need their most solid fundamental game of the season. They had plenty of them at home, and none of them on the road. So here we go with then season on the line.

Will the interior get pushed around in the run game? Will Dont’a Hightower be forced to play in the flat instead of on the line? Or will the Patriots defense be stout and dictate the line of scrimmage like they did against the Chargers?

It’s clear that it’s a heavy defensive back game and that’s what the Patriots are mostly built for. I’d still love another linebacker beside Kyle Van Noy who can run, but this is the army we’ve got and it’s rich at cornerback and safety which will work fine.

The Pats are a mostly man defense and there’s every reason to lean into that identity in this one. Be physical at the line with the receivers and disrupt the timing. Free runners through the middle of the flat is a death sentence. Things near the line of scrimmage must be jammed with personnel and confusion. It is dangerous to think about more Cover-0 and Cover-1 against a big play team like this but the Patriots have the athletes in the secondary to do the job.

Disguise will also be important. It’s a hallmark of Belichick in the playoffs especially going against a rookie quarterback. You can bet what the Patriots put on film back in October will be baited this time. The wrong Mahomes pass at the wrong time could change the entire game.

Even at their best the Patriots defense will give up some plays, but they have the playmakers who can make the biggest plays at the biggest times. Trey Flowers and Dont’a Hightower must finish Mahomes when they have him in their clutches.

Five Points of Emphasis

NO TURNOVERS — The Patriots could play terrible and as long as they didn’t lose the turnover battle it’d still probably come down to the end. With weather conditions possible, there’s no bigger key than to be safe with the ball. It’s simple but turnovers will likely determine who wins and loses this one.
BE THE AGGRESSOR – On both sides of the ball, the Patriots must lean into their most physical aspects. On offense with the offensive line and Develin leading the way for Michel. On defense, it’s at the line of scrimmage where the Pats should attack the Chiefs weaponry right off the line. This was the approach against the Colts in ’03 and ’04 and I’m hoping we see the (softer) 2018 version.
START AND FINISH – Winning this kind of game against such an explosive team requires focus on the start and finish while you weather the storm in the middle. Getting into an early hole is impossible as we saw with the Colts. But there’s no more important piece to winning a playoff game than making the plays at the end. They have to come out quick and finish strong. When Mahomes makes his plays in the middle so be it.
SOLID TEAMS – I’m not asking too much from special teams. A big play (Patterson) is always welcome but I’m fine with just solid. No missed XPs, no shanked punts, no muffs. Just be solid, don’t try to be special.
WIN – This should be a war in a hostile environment and conditions. These are the games we live for. We’re a bit of underdogs but right now it sure doesn’t seem like the Belichick/Brady magic is gone just yet. Let’s see what they pull out of their hats this time.