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Patriots Free Agency Analysis: Value Strikes Again

March 16, 2016 by Mike Dussault

No one values value more than Bill Belichick and that’s just what has been on display once again in Patriots free agency this year. In years past, I took a look at just how Belichick maximizes value, turning single draft picks into multiple players and future draft picks.

The 28th overall pick in the 2007 draft was turned into Randy Moss, Jerod Mayo, Shawn Crable, Ryan Mallet and then this year’s 7th rounder from Houston that they got for Mallet. That’s right, nine years later the value of that one pick is still paying dividends.

The 23rd overall pick in 2009 was turned into Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Darius Butler and Brandon Tate. Gronk and Edelman are the core of the Patriots offensive weaponry, while Butler and Tate have gone on to have solid pro careers even though not in New England.

This is what Belichick understands, that the draft is a crapshoot and even when you get good players they often get injured. The only way to consistently build a good football team that can overcome the under-performance and injuries that plague all professional football teams is to have quality depth and always work to strengthen that depth.

This philosophy was on display once again yesterday when the Patriots effectively flipped Chandler Jones for a 2nd round pick, and a once-promising guard in Jonathan Cooper, while also adding defensive end Chris Long at less than half what Jones was scheduled to make. Jones was a talented player who would’ve made an impact for the Patriots in 2016, but the long-term health and overall depth of the franchise is once again what the Patriots gained by making these kind of trades and acquisitions.

Long has had two years of injuries, but had never missed a game prior to 2014. It’s very possible that Long will rejuvenate his career if he can stay healthy in New England, and could easily be a more impactful pass rusher than Jones would’ve been. At the very least, Long will likely get his first taste of the playoffs and by that time he should be playing with his hair on fire. That’s the kind of play that helps you win championships.

As for Cooper, the Patriots loved him coming out of college but never had a shot at him as he went 7th overall in 2013. This is what makes the Patriots even more impressive, they rarely get a chance at the best talent in the draft. Instead they have to wait until they either fall out of favor or have their careers derailed by injuries. That’s when they pounce. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

Screen Shot 2016-03-15 at 12.50.50 PMThere’s no denying Cooper has talent and if he can find a way to rekindle that, the Patriots will have improved a vital part of their offensive line. If anyone can get to Cooper, it’s Dante Scarnecchia.

But perhaps most important is the second round pick. The Patriots now have both the 60th and 61st picks in the draft, and by the draft value chart that’s enough to package and get them all the way into the top of the second round, if not the late first round. That kind of flexibility is invaluable and opens up a number of doors that were closed to them without it.

Once again, it’s all about value, and with 11 draft picks the Patriots have the ammo to do as they please during draft day, maximizing each and every pick not only for this year but for the years to come.

 

 

Filed Under: Draft, Free Agency Tagged With: chris long, jonathan cooper

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