Pats Posits: Bye, Bye, Bye!

The Patriots ran their way to a victory over the Bills that delivered New England’s 10th-straight divisional title and put them back in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Sony Michel racked up 116 yards on 18 carries, while the rest of the backfield, including Cordarrelle Patterson gave the team 273 yards rushing, their most since 2008.

If you wanted a perfectly executed PatsPropaganda Gameplan, you need to look no further. My final score prediction (24-13) was one point off while the running the ball and stopping the run were the key features to this week for the team. I loved the approach and the execution, but there are still plenty of elements giving me pause before firing up the Super Bowl hype train.

With a Chiefs loss the Pats now have an outside shot at the top seed, but what matters most, after Houston’s loss to the Eagles is that the Pats control their own fate for the second seed. All they have to do is beat the Jets. And given how Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski look, never before has a Pats team needed that extra week off more.

Let’s jump in and unpack everything from the second-to-last regular season game of the season.

— First place to start is with Brady, who declared himself “not injured” post game but he sure does look like he’s hurt to some degree. This has long been the case with Brady, fighting through things that would sideline most quarterbacks and usually we don’t hear about how badly hurt he was until after the season when everyone has moved on. But upon the initial watch, albeit one during our family Christmas party where I spent a little more time than usual away from the TV and over the food, he looked like he was in self-preservation mode. The fact that he was taken out with six minutes left says a lot about how the team is looking out for his health moreso than the past when he might’ve just had some bumps and bruises.

— Brady completed just 13 of 24 passes for 126 yards, with a touchdown and two picks. None of those passes targeted Chris Hogan (83 percent of snaps) or Rob Gronkowski (79 percent). The only ball caught by a wide receiver other than Julian Edelman was a three yarder to Patterson, his only catch of the day to go with his four carries for 66 yards.

— This stripped-down approach was both necessary and concerning at the same time and I’m not exactly sure where the line is. On one hand, it was thrilling to see the ground game really take flight. They won time of possession by 10 minutes. I’ve known it since about mid-September, this team will go as far as the Michel and White take them. Nothing against Burkhead, he’ll chip in, but I’d focus on those two primarily first, then just sprinkle Rex in from time to time. But can they beat the elite of the AFC and the NFC champ with only one true receiver catching passes? Almost definitely not. The ground game is good and had a once-in-a-decade day yesterday, but I really don’t know if they can ride a rushing performance in the playoffs like they did in 2004 with Corey Dillon. That’s gotta be the model for this team to make a run.

— Still trying to figure out where James White has been in the passing game. I get that downfield might not have been a target yesterday given Brady and the Bills defense, but if there was anyone who could’ve helped shoulder the load with Edelman shouldn’t it have been White underneath? He had six receiving touchdowns in the first seven games and hasn’t had one since. Suddenly he busts a long rushing touchdown yesterday? It’s been a weird year for White, even though he’s already set career highs in receiving and rushing yardage.

— Where will Brady and Gronk be in three weeks? That’s the big question. I’m sure there will be plenty of chatter that they’ll be nowhere better. That their careers are ending and they’ll limp to the finish no matter how much time off they have. I sure don’t have the Super Bowl or bust feeling that I’ve had every postseason since 2010, but part of me enjoys not having that pressure while resting assured that no matter how banged up they are they’ll be a handful for whomever they face. The bigger question that I’m not quite sure about is whether or not they can avoid beating themselves on the road, but hey, that might not even matter if everything breaks right like it did yesterday.

— Wow, we’re just getting to the defense now, but this was a game where they really wouldn’t get any credit even for a performance that was really solid. Like the offense, I feel like we know exactly who this defense is and against a one-dimensional like the Bills in Foxboro, they played the kind of sound team game we’ve seen plenty of at home this year. The best sign continues to be that they got three takeaways, the ultimate x-factor for any 2018 Pats playoff run. It was their 10th game this season with multiple takeaways and the second time they’ve gotten three in one game.

— The personnel changes — swapping Clayborn for Shelton, starting Wise, playing Hightower almost every game — seemed almost entirely aimed at the Bills and not any shift in how they view themselves. Against a passing team I think things go right back to Clayborn, less Wise and Hightower, etc. They shutdown Josh Allen rushing the ball, but my fears of running QBs has not subsided because the Bills just couldn’t stress the pass defense enough to truly feel like the Pats D has turned a corner against multi-faceted offenses.

— I’m guessing the Pats end up the two seed, collapsing at home against a 3-11 Raiders team is too much even for a fading Andy Reid team in December. I think how the seeds stack up right now might be the best path for the Pats. The Ravens are at four which would force them to KC before NE.

— Break down the matchups? Give me traditional passing teams please — Indy and the Chargers are far more preferable to KC, Baltimore and Houston. It’s less about who I’m afraid of, though I do think there’s something to be said for KC and Baltimore having a confidence they can beat the Pats. So if we can save one of those two for the AFC Championship that’d be ideal. A potential opponent in the Super Bowl seems far more likely to be an okay matchup too. But there will be no easy matchup no matter who they play or where. It’s how it used to be and how it is for every other NFL team.

— The big question is can this Patriots team pull it all together for three games. I don’t think they can in the way we’re used to, aka the Brady-Gronk-Edelman show that has carried the team since 2013. Things are evolving and toe-to-toe throwing games like SB51 and SB52 became scare me more now than they would’ve entering the season or even when Josh Gordon was in the mix. Again, for the millionth time, the ground game on both sides of the ball is everything to this team.

— Surviving the Jets this weekend will be the final piece of the regular season and there’s no question how vital this game is. Sam Darnold will get his first taste of Foxboro and should play loose. That could make things interesting and then it’s on the playoffs. Wow it went by quick this year.