Back in the blogging saddle after a week of vacation and it’s hard to believe that another Patriots training camp is right around the corner. Over the next few weeks I’ll be posting some excerpts from my Patriots 2016 Preview book, which you can buy in its entirety here for just $4.
To kick things off here’s a quick look back at the 2015 offense and a look ahead at how things are shaping up for 2016.
2015 Offensive Statistical Rankings
- Overall DVOA – 5th
- Passing DVOA – 4th
- Running DVOA – 12th
- Yards-per-Game – 6th (374.4)
- Points-per-Game – 3rd (29.1)
- Third Down – 11th (41 percent)
- Fourth Down – t-4th (60 percent)
The Patriots were once again one of the best offenses in the NFL, looking almost as unstoppable as they were in 2007 through the first four weeks of the 2015 season. Then came the early bye week and the injury apocalypse commenced.
One stat that can define the 2015 season came on third down. Without Julian Edelman in the lineup, the Patriots third-down conversion percentage dropped by 16.1 percent, while Brady’s overall completion percentage dropped from 69.0 percent to 59.2 percent.
Edelman’s importance, or more specifically, a reliable Z-receiver who can get open quickly, is so vital to the Patriots offense. Developing depth around and in back of Edelman will be a big key for this season.
Meanwhile, the running game devolved to the point where the Pats put up just 44 yards on 17 carries in the AFC Championship. Tom Brady led the team in rushing with 13 yards. Yikes.
For the season the Pats ground “attack” was 29th in yards-per-attempt, 25th in rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards.
This follows a two-year downward trend by the ground game where they’ve ranked 14th and 12th respectively in DVOA.. The last time they were out of the top-10 was 2005.
Other than adding veteran Donald Brown, the team essentially stayed pat with their running backs. The hope has to be that Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount return from injury and hopefully Brown or Tyler Gaffney can contribute. But that seems like a risky plan, relying on the injured and unproven.
The NFL is a passing league and as defenses get lighter and faster to defend the pass it’s a matter of time before power running offenses re-emerge. The Patriots have plenty of size up front, even if their collection of running backs seem far more geared toward the passing game.
Fullback James Develin will be back, and the offensive line should be better at opening holes, but the most exciting addition is tight end Martellus Bennett.
Never before have the Patriots had two dominant Y tight ends who can both block and catch, and that’s what they have in Bennett and Gronk.
Together, they should re-define the Patriots’ offense.
The other key personnel shift will occur at X-receiver where Brandon LaFell was released this offseason. Chris Hogan of the Bills was given the most lucrative free agent contract of the offseason and projects into the X-receiver role. He had a positive showing in minicamp.
Hogan was known as “7-11” during his rookie year on HBO’s Hard Knocks with the Dolphins because he was always open. He hasn’t played with a quarterback like Tom Brady before of course, and if he’s truly always open, he’ll see plenty of balls thrown his way. Earning Brady’s trust in the offseason is the biggest key for Hogan, but he can do everything the Pats ask of their split ends.
The running back spot is a significant area of concern, especially with their two biggest key players coming off significant injuries. But the addition of Bennett and Hogan, along with the return of Dante Scarnecchia to help get the entire offensive line back on track should mean great things once again for the Patriots offense in 2016.