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An Independent Patriots Blog

Five Stats to Define 2018 Patriots’ First Half

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One of my favorite things to do, especially now with half a season in the books, is stack this current Patriots team to previous teams to see what makes this one unique. Each year there are some strange outliers, either rapid improvement or decline that gives each squad their own little flare.

The 2007 team was an offensive juggernaut. The 2010 and 2011 teams gave up a ton of yards but managed it by getting a ton of takeaways. The 2017 defense, marred by injuries, was the lowest-ranked DVOA defense of the Belichick era.

Each team always has one or two interesting little nuggets that you’ll only get from someone who’s blogged about them exclusively for over a decade. So what has made the 2018 Patriots unique this far? Here are five stats where they stand out, for good and bad reasons.

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We’re Burying Rob Gronkowski Now?

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I took a quick trip to the alternate universe known as Boston sports talk radio yesterday and heard that apparently Rob Gronkowski, with just one touchdown, is on death watch now. This was echoed on twitter where Mike Giardi was making some points like these:

Yup, the guy who missed the game last week after HIS BACK LOCKED UP and has been dealing with an ankle injury since Week 3 looked labored early on in the very next game. Giardi mentions the injuries Gronk has experienced in his initial tweet, then asks a commenter if he thought Gronk’s stats would look like this. I don’t get it. How can you point out his injuries then call it a surprise his stats aren’t their usual dominant level? Would you be surprised if Gronk only had 29 catches through seven games, four of which came without Julian Edelman drawing any coverage, and two of those came also while dealing with the ankle injury? Is that a huge red flag? Personally, I’m just happy he’s not on IR and has plenty of time to get healthy before the playoffs.

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Pats Posits: Pats Are Who I Posit They Are

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The Pats pulled away late to close out the Bills as Tom Brady extended his dominance over Buffalo to a whopping 29-3. Brady has more wins over them than any other quarterback over any other team. The Bills Mafia has been left to just throw dildos on the field and accept their loss.

Without Sony Michel it was the grind that I thought it possibly could be in the gameplan:

For the past two seasons, it’s been clear that the Patriots are at their best when they’re balanced and establishing that balance in this game might be tougher than anyone realizes. If the run blocking isn’t on and Barner is unable to make people miss they’re going to become one-dimensional against a good passing defense and that could be cause for concern. Toss in any more strange giveaways leaving a short field for Anderson and there’s a chance this game is interesting, at least for a little bit.

So we got a heavy dose of Cordarrelle Patterson at running back (10 carries, 38 yards) and a game that was just 12-6 in the 4th quarter. The other stats that stand out due to the lack of a ground game was third down where the Pats were just 5-14 and in the red zone where they were 1-3. Just three of the 14 third downs were four yards or less. That speaks to not getting enough early down yardage.

What’s clear to me now about the 2018 Pats is that as long as they have Brady-White-Edelman-Gronk they’re going to give just about any team problems. They have less margin for error with turnovers, but they’ll move the ball. If they have Michel, or just an effective ground game, they’re at a different level of unstoppability.

As for the defense they met expectations against Derek Anderson and the inept Bills offense, holding them to just 6 points, a season low. They also forced two turnovers, returning an interception for their first defensive touchdown since 2015, a streak of 40 games. With no quick change situations, the defense showed that they’re definitely not as crappy as many were making them out to be. But again, it’s the Bills. We’ll see how they look against Aaron Rodgers, but we’ll take it.

More on it all in a halfway edition of the Posits…

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Patriots Gameplan: Week 8 at Buffalo Bills

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The 5-2 Patriots are on the road again, visiting AFC East “rival” Buffalo who sit at 2-5. The Bills will be without rookie quarterback Josh Allen, meaning that veteran Derek Anderson will start against the Pats for the first time since he and the Browns actually hung tougher-than-expected way back when against the 2007 Patriots.

Despite their record, the Bills defense isn’t a total disaster, ranking 6th overall in DVOA, including 4th against the pass. The problem is that Buffalo has 12 turnovers in their last four games and that will kill any team. Their offense is ranked 32nd overall and 32nd passing and very well could be the worst in the league, and that was before Anderson had to start. There’s been plenty of times to wonder if the Bills could knock off the Pats over the years, and just a couple times they actually did, but this doesn’t appear on paper to be one of them.

As for the Patriots, they’ve won four in a row but given up 102 points in those four wins. The Bills’ inept offense is just what the Patriots defense needs, though in reality, they’re better than the points allowed might indicate. The offense though was really starting to click, just as Sony Michel was lost to a not-as-bad-as-it-looked injury that will have him miss at least this one game. The Pats look like they’ll roll with Kenjon Barner and James White as their only two backs, which is a little concerning, especially if it puts added pressure on the valuable White.

What do the Pats have to do to get to the halfway point of the season with a strong 6-2 record and even their road record at 2-2? Here’s the gameplan!

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Pats Stats: Week 7 Update

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Jumping back into some Pats stats this morning and my favorite metrics are backing up most of what I’ve come to believe about this team. The improvement on the offensive side of the ball since the last time I did a stat check is impressive. The points, third down percentage and red zone percentage have all improved as Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon have assimilated into the attack.

The improvement on third down is most noticeable, as they’ve gone from 19th to 7th in just two games. The only negative for the offense are the continued turnovers, with 13 giveaways already this season. They had 12 total giveaways last season and have surpassed that number in less than half the 2018 season.

Defensively there’s still work to be done, especially on third down where they’ve continued to decline over the last two weeks from 26th to 27th. The points-per-game are really high too, but more on that in a moment.

  • Offensive Points: 30.6 – 4th
  • Defensive Points: 25.6 – 20th
  • Third Down Offense: 44.2 percent – 7th
  • Third Down Defense: 45.1 percent – 27th
  • Red Zone Offense: 69.2 – 7th
  • Red Zone Defense: 57.7 percent – 17th
  • Turnover Differential: +1 (14 takeaways, 13 giveaways)

As far as my Bend Don’t Break index, it’s a weird year:

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High Giveaway/Takeaway Rates Have Skewed 2018 Patriots Start

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If you only looked at the stats you might take a gander at Tom Brady‘s seven interceptions in seven games, realize he’s on pace for his most interceptions ever and jump to the ultimate Hot Take conclusion that the Brady decline has finally begun. Or, if you actually watched the games, you’d know that most of those were off tipped balls and really not Brady’s fault. Luckily, and somewhat surprisingly, I haven’t seen that Brady Hot Take, though I admittedly don’t watch sports TV or listen to sports radio.

This really sums up how I feel about the Patriots defense, who are once again getting thrown under the bus as they do every fall. It’s easy to talk people off the ledge when it comes to giving up yards, where the Patriots defense is 25th. Less easy are points, which even Bill Belichick has admitted is the important stat. They’re 20th in points allowed. But even more important than points is wins and the Patriots have won four-straight.

Talking people off the ledge when it comes to the defense has become exhausting for me, but this year it’s like they defensive worrywarts are back with a vengeance. Usually, these posts are a waste of time for me, because eventually things get sorted out, the defense goes on a dominant run and everyone calms their tits. But I feel like this defense is a special circumstance and a defense that I actually really like despite their flaws, which are real, but surmountable.

Let’s take a quick jump in on the defense and point out why the start to this season needs to be taken the same way Brady’s interceptions are taken, as a very specific set of circumstances that really don’t tell you who this defense is, and why those interceptions are a very big part of what has made things harder on the defense.

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Pats Posits: Patriots Win a Weird One in Chicago

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The Patriots needed to stop a Hail Mary at the one-yard line to hang on to a 38-31 win over the Chicago Bears after one of the most bizarre games in recent memory. Boiled down to its essence this was a game of good — two impressive interceptions and two special teams touchdowns — and bad — multiple long Mitch Trubisky runs and multiple penalties/giveaway.

The Bears were better than the Patriots on third down. They were better in the red zone. They had fewer penalties. They had more yards. But what they didn’t have in the end were more points and that’s why the Patriots are now 5-2 as they approach the midway point of the season.

Perhaps the biggest headline was the injury to Sony Michel, whom I’ve been harping on as perhaps the key piece of the offense. Michel’s leg was twisted around as he fumbled early in the game and had to be carted off. Of everything we take from this game, that injury might be the only significant piece that affects the Pats long term.

Overall this is the third disappointing performance on the road of 2018 but it was the first win, so that has to count for something. What else can we read into for the big picture beside the potential Michel injury? Here are the Posits.

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