PatsPropaganda

An Independent Patriots Blog

The Lions and Suh and Megatron, Oh My!

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In the brief few days since the Patriots held on to beat the Colts you probably haven’t heard much about the Detroit Lions. If you’re a regular reader here you definitely haven’t. In fact there’s probably only one thing you heard if anything at all:

Before we get to the Lions let’s talk a little bit about “Trap” games. I guess the definition of a trap game is when a good team is on a roll and/or has a big game coming up but first must play a team that, on paper, looks like shit.

Sometimes it could be boiled down to simply any time a good team plays a shitty team. But with a huge matchup on the Pats’ horizon with the Jets on MNF this Lions game fits the classic ‘trap’ game definition. 

Calling it a trap game implies that the better team will overlook the inferior-on-paper team and thus be half-assed in their preparations.

Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz and Bill Simmons debated if trap games are a reality on Simmons’ podcast this week. Schatz said they don’t exist, that in the modern NFL any team can beat any team. Records don’t matter. On any given week a team that has looked horrible can put it together and play well. Just like on any given week a team that has looked great can look like crap.

The players understand this and never overlook a game.

Simmons of course disagreed and thought that this was human nature to overlook a challenge you think you’re superior to. It’s also hard to get those competitive juices flowing when you don’t have any kind of a rivalry with a team.

Personally I side with Schatz, especially because we’re talking about the Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. This team has been in close, hard fought games with teams of every kind of record or reputation. Stats are for losers, and that includes the stat of a team’s overall record. Belichick will absolutely make sure his team knows it’s in for a dogfight.

Tom Brady was already looking at the Lions on Sunday night after beating the Colts just hours earlier. I am not worried that the Patriots will overlook the Lions. Nor do I believe that any single player on the Patriots believes they will just show up, blow Detroit out, and be home in time for turkey.

Because the reality is that the Lions are not the bumbling, stumbling Lions of old. This is a team that competes hard on every snap. They are still rough around the edges and have their weaknesses, but they will not be walked over, especially at home.

Let’s not forget that the Patriots have yet to hold a passer under 300 yards. Granted they’ve faced some very good offenses, but they have not proven they can shut down anyone’s passing attack. And guess what, the Lions are 6th in the NFL in passing yards.

So yes the Lions are 2-8 and have a reputation for being one of the worst teams in the NFL over the past decade but that record and rep are deceiving.

The Lions are 2-2 at home this year and their two losses were by just 3 points each. And anyone who saw the Jets game knows the Lions should’ve won that.

The other loss? Oh just a close 35-32 shootout loss to the mighty Philadelphia Eagles.

The Patriots coaches and players are well aware of all these stats and many, many more. This is not a trap game. This will be a sizable challenge game.

The Lions have a revamped defensive line led by Ndamukong Sug and Kyle Vanden Bosche. The Patriots offensive line better be ready for them, because they will be coming hard and fast, just like the rest of the Lions team.

The Patriots will also have their hands full with Calvin Johnson, aka Megatron, who in the words of BB is “never covered”.

If the Patriots win this game most will write it off as just “taking care of business” but the reality is that the Lions are the type of offense that this young defense badly needs a good performance against.

If the Lions have seen what the rest of us have seen (and I’m pretty sure they have) they will attack the Patriots through the air early and often. Detroit’s stellar rookie running back Jahvid Best has been battling a foot injury and the Patriots defense has been excellent the last two weeks against the run. So I don’t expect them to try to move the ball on the ground much.

If the Patriots are to make a run in January their pass defense must improve or else they’ll be forced to rely on take aways to stay in games. That’s not something you want.

Shutting down Shaun Hill and a formidable receiving corps featuring Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, and Nate Burleson would send a message to those who pay attention and give confidence to the young Pats defense. 

Beating this Lions team in their house will not be an easy task. This is their Super Bowl and the short week for prep levels the playing field somewhat. If you still think this is a trap game you’re in for a nerve wracking start to your Thanksgiving day. It will be close. The Lions will move the ball. But if the Patriots stick to what has gotten them to 8-2, playing mistake-free football, executing on offense and bending but not breaking on defense they should be able to pull it out.

And if the defense can hold Hill under 300 yards it would be a big step in the right direction. 

Do Not Underestimate This Decepticon

Patriots Confused the Receivers and the Quarterback

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One of the elements that made the Patriots successful in intercepting Peyton Manning three times was a good job disguising their coverages. You can see Brian “Baldy” Baldinger break it down here. Try not to get distracted by Badly’s loose pinky that just sort of flops around while he’s making his points.

While we often hear about confusing a quarterback with disguised coverages you don’t hear much about confusing the receivers. In today’s NFL, and especially with a team like the Patriots, the receivers have to make pre-snap reads and adjust their routes accordingly.

On two of the three interceptions Manning threw, he saw one thing and his receiver saw another. This shows that you don’t necessarily need to fool Manning. He has young and fairly inexperienced receivers, except for Reggie Wayne. Confusing them and forcing them to make the wrong sight adjustment is probably a little easier than trying to do it to Peyton.

Seems like the Patriots knew that and exploited it. Those three interceptions ended up being the difference in the game.

Fooled You, Peyton!!

Mike D note: consider this my last post about the Colts game. I’ve tried to turn the page like the players and coaches have had to do but there’s just been so much interesting stuff to break down over the last three days. As an uber fan blogger I can afford that luxury. So that’s it. On to the Lions…

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Updated snap percentage graphs broken down by defensive lineman, linebackers, and defensive backs.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/updated-snap-percentage-graphs-broken-down-by/

ProFootballFocus.com: Patriots – Colts ReFocused

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Here are some stats from the ProFootballFocus guys…

In stark contrast to the Colts, Brady didn’t have an O-lineman avoid a positive grade, with Dan Koppen (+3.9)having the strongest day, comfortably handling the Colts’ defensive tackles all day long.

Jermaine Cunningham (+3.0)had a fine game, with positive scores in both the run game and rushing the passer. Cunningham was able to generate three pressures on Manning over the course of the game, including the key pressure on his final throw that forced the interception.

Danny Woodhead ( +3.2 )is fast becoming a major weapon for the Patriots, a true Wes Welker in the backfield. With his experience as a slot receiver, Woodhead can be motioned out into the slot where he becomes a matchup problem, or keep him in the backfield where he is a dangerous runner behind a powerful O-line. His 36-yard touchdown run was a thing of beauty, and then Woodhead was the player flying downfield to make the tackle on the ensuing kickoff.

For the Patriots, Devin McCourty (+0.8)is clearly the best corner they have at the moment, and he made some plays in this game, even if he did allow five of nine passes into his coverage to be complete. … Rob Gronkowski ( +2.2) had a fine game, mostly as a run-blocker, while Aaron Hernandez (+0.3)was largely anonymous. … Brandon Spikes (+0.8) saw only eight snaps against a pass-heavy Colts team, and did his damage as a run stopper. … Punter Zoltan Mesko (+0.0)averaged 44 yards a punt, and had a 4.7 second hang-time high.

New York Jets’ Wayne Hunter: Best Backup in NFL or Scrub?

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I’ve said many times I enjoy having Rex Ryan coach the Jets. He brings far more to a rivalry than say, Chan Gailey does. But as we start to catch on more and more to Rexy’s act it’s starting to smell more and more “snacky”.

Take for example the conflicting reports below.

First Rex’s response when asked if he’s concerned if Damien Woody won’t be able to play on Thursday:

If he’s ready to go, he’ll be in there.  If not, we feel good about Wayne Hunter.  We left Wayne isolated a lot of times on that (Mario) Williams guy.  There’s a reason that (Williams) was the first pick in the draft.  He’s pretty good.  We have a lot of confidence in Wayne Hunter. We’re fortunate.  We feel like we have the best backup tackle in football in Wayne Hunter.  If Wayne has to play, we know he’ll do a great job  (and give) a good account of himself.

Okay, then we have this report from ProFootballFocus.com:

Although the Jets won, the performance of Wayne Hunter (-7.0) is a major cause for concern. After a first-quarter knee injury to Damien Woody, Hunter filled in at right tackle and gave up a sack, a hit and eight pressures, as Mark Sanchez had to constantly escape the rush in the second half. If Woody is unable to go on Thursday night, the Jets might like to consider leaving more extra blockers in to help Hunter out, because that much pressure is a recipe for disaster.

Look I understand what Ryan’s doing, he’s trying to build the confidence of a young player. To let him know his coach believes in him. But doesn’t this act start to ring hollow at some point? Wouldn’t it just be better to say nothing at all?

Regardless of how accurate ProFootballFocus’ metrics are or are not, it’s safe to say Wayne had a marginal-at-best game. And Rexy might to save Woody and make sure he’s 100% for the Patriots game. That would give him over two weeks to get completely healthy.

But if Wayne Hunter plays against the Bengals, he could get Mark Sanchez de-Sanchized. 

Wayne Doesn’t Know If He’s The Best Or He Sucks

Reiss & Bruschi ESPN Podcast: Answering a Question from PatsPropaganda

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This season’s addition to the must-listen Patriots list has been Mike Reiss and Tedy Bruschi’s podcast. Nowhere else will you hear two people who are more knowledgeable about the Patriots (unless you count BB’s weekly radio appearances on WEEI’s Big Show).

Tedy was a founding father of the “Patriot Way” and his insight and commentary is as good as it gets. Especially in this setting with Mike Reiss where Bruschi doesn’t need to worry about coming off like he biased towards the Pats.

This week Tedy answered a question that I submitted and I transcribed his answer below. 

PatsPropaganda: Was there ever a time that a Bill Belichick game plan really surprised you?

Bruschi: Many times, I remember once we were against the Buffalo Bills. Where the real excitement starts is on 3rd down day. Because once you win on first down, second down you get them in those medium to long situations and that’s when you can throw all these complex schemes at them. We got the game plan and I looked at it and there wasn’t one down lineman. There were a couple defensive ends but everyone was sort of walking around. You could basically not put your hand down so you’d be running around trying to confuse the protection. That was a really different wrinkle we used for the Buffalo Bills one week. Especially when Rob Ryan was there, he’s now the DC of the Cleveland Browns. Him and Bill used to come up with some funky stuff where we would say “Rob-o we need some help deciphering this”. Linebackers were in the A gaps with linemen right next to them. It made it fun and interesting because you knew when you went in there on Wednesday or Thursday you’d have a chance to do something unique.

Some really great stuff from Tedy, though it probably makes a lot of Pats fans squirm to think all those complex and fun defenses were coming from one of the Ryan brothers. It certainly provides some insight into the effect Rob Ryan had on Bill Belichick from a game plan perspective and that type of scheming certainly sounds a lot like Rex’s style as well.

It’s also interesting to note the Patriots busted a similar defense out last season to help generate pressure, this time it was five linebackers and six defensive backs so it was dubbed the “Five and Dime”. But again there were no down lineman and everyone was just wandering around trying to create confusion.

Some Pats fans probably wonder why we don’t see more of this. Personally I think it’s because with a young defense you want them to be able to do the fundamentals first and foremost. Once you have those down (i.e. 2011) you can start to get a little more cute with your defenses and how you disguise them.

 

From the real 54 to the fan 54….

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Here’s this week’s updated DVOA graph (note – defensive DVOA is flipped to make it easier to read, technically negative defensive DVOA is good).

What can we determine? The Pats offense is elite, no question about it. Per the earlier post this current Pats offense is second only to the 2007 Pats offense. Sorry Randy.

Defensively it looks like the Pats might be stabilizing. Would love to see their best performance of the season against the Lions. It could be just what they need to kickstart the stretch run, but it won’t be easy. The Lions will come out throwing to test the Patriots poor pass defense.

Special Teams have leveled off after a hot start. They’re a little above average, perhaps Pierre Woods was brought back to give them a spark.

https://www.patspropaganda.com/heres-this-weeks-updated-dvoa-graph-note/