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Pats Posits: Let the Free Agency Games Begin!!

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The new league year starts Wednesday, but things are already underway with the “legal tampering period” which should make for a bunch of deals getting into place ahead of time. For the Patriots, the new is starting to finally trickle in with restricted free agent signings.

— James Develin announced that he’s returning to the Pats on a new one-year deal. This likely saved the Pats some money by not having to tender Develin. Now, coming off a broken leg, Develin has a chance to prove he’s back to form and can help re-establish a Patriots ground game that was murdered by attrition in 2014.

— Justin Coleman, coming off an impressive rookie season in the slot, Josh Boyce and tackle Cameron Fleming have been tendered as well. Wasn’t sure if Boyce would be back, but Coleman and Fleming were locks and help round out the depth. Brandon King is also in discussions to return, likely under a tender offer. Rufus Johnson, LaAdrian Waddle and Kevin Hughes are the only RFA/ERFA’s left that we haven’t gotten word about.

— Logan Mankins announced his retirement which once again shows the Pats are usually right on with their “one year early rather than a year late” personnel philosophy. Mankins is one of those all-time Patriots players who somehow managed to have his career span the exact time frame Belichick and Brady went Super Bowl-less, 2005-2013. It’s too bad Mankins never got a ring in New England, but he’s still one of the best maulers of all time. Playing on a torn ACL in 2011’s Super Bowl might just embody everything Mankins stood for in New England.

— The Pats also picked up Rob Gronkowski‘s $10 million option ensuring Gronk stays with the team through 2019, though another extension seems certainly likable at some point in the next couple years, depending on how healthy Gronk stays. He’s missed just two games the last two seasons, if he keeps up that pace he’ll own pretty much every tight end record in the books.

— Eric Weddle thinks he’d be a good fit with the Pats and as much as I love the player it’s hard to see how he’d fit in New England with Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung and Duron Harmon, with Jordan Richards also in the mix. Yes of course Weddle and McCourty would be probably the best safety combo in the league, but they’re not paying Chung to sit on the bench at this point, so I really don’t see it happening.

Patriots Roster Trimming Continues

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More news continues to trickle in as the Patriots are in roster trimming mode — the latest is that restricted free agents Brian Tyms and Sealver Siliga will not be tendered and will hit free agency next week. Free Agent Brandon Gibson, who spent last year on IR with New England, also indicated he wouldn’t be returning to New England.

Tyms suffered a knee injury in training camp, killing all hopes that he was the next great deep threat hope. Siliga had a fall from grace in 2015 after a promising 2013 and 2014. He was a good piece of the puzzle to have — a stout two-gapper — but would never be more than a two-down player.

Siliga was the only one I thought would and should be back, but ultimately the Pats didn’t want to pay him $1.671 million to be fourth on the depth chart. Perhaps this is a good sign that the Pats think they can retain Akiem Hicks, but it’s more likely the two are unrelated and they weren’t paying Siliga that much regardless.

Remaining internal free agents and RFA/ERFA.

Remaining internal free agents and RFA/ERFA. Starred ones are who I want back.

Another factor is that this is a defensive tackle-rich draft with plenty of big two-gappers who could fill that fourth DT role for far less money. Malcom Brown will be back, as will Dominique Easley. Adding Hicks back into the equation would be a big boost, while Alan Branch remains in limbo with an option due next week.

Clearly the Pats first order of business this offseason was to make cuts and open cap space, setting the stage for what will hopefully be a more-active-than-expected free agency period.

Re-setting the Patriots Offseason Positional Needs

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With yesterday’s release of Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler it shakes things up a bit in terms of the immediate needs for the Patriots. Both were in significant roles last year (at least to start) but faded from view as the season wore on. Right after the end of the season this was how I viewed the Patriots needs:

  1. Tackle
  2. Early Down Running Back
  3. Wide Receiver
  4. Linebacker
  5. Cornerback
  6. Tight End
  7. Guard
  8. Defensive End
  9. Defensive Tackle

Roster Need Reset

Now let’s re-evaluate things a bit:

  1. Wide Receiver – I think Pats fans actually like having this as a top need because it gives them hope that maybe, just maybe, the Pats will finally get a DEEP THREAT!. With the release of LaFell the Pats have an immediate starting need for a wide receiver to primarily play the X spot on the outside. Ideally he’s 6’2″ or bigger, has decent deep speed and is a willing blocker in the run game. 2014 LaFell checked these boxes. 2015 LaFell did not. Not sure anyone is holding out any hope that Aaron Dobson suddenly get it so the cupboard is pretty bare. Previously I thought running back was a spot to spend a little dough on a free agent, but now I shift that to the receiver spot. There will be plenty of speculation about the Patriots having some crazy secret plan in place like bringing in Calvin Johnson. Maybe that’s the case. Or maybe the just go with someone like LaFell was, a castoff who didn’t quite click in another city. Mohmed Sanu won’t excite many people but he still seems to me like an intriguing fit who could play multiple roles in the offense.
  2. Earl Down Running Back – Jeff Howe reported last week that the Pats were interested in bringing back LeGarrette Blount, but I still think he needs to be paired with an explosive hard runner who can get things started. Maybe that role can go to a rookie. Or maybe they try someone like castoff Joique Bell. Still, this is a glaring hole and an important need for 2016.
  3. Tackle – This is a top need, but for the long-term. I think they have to dedicate a high round draft pick to an athletic tackle who can swing to both sides and replace Sebastian Vollmer as starter at right tackle in 2017.
  4. “F” Tight End – Looking for a move tight end can be fun because you don’t have to be as concerned about their blocking. Dwayne Allen formerly of the Colts is an interesting free agent option. This position is also tied to Danny Amendola‘s future. Without Amendola the Pats are really in a bind without a move tight end as well. Which way do they primarily plan on playing, with three receivers or two tight ends? Probably the least exciting option is bringing back Michael Hoomanawanui.
  5. Middle Linebacker – I think this need is best filled by a veteran who can play a two-down role. Stephen Tulloch is intriguing and I’d love to see what Demario Davis could do in the Pats’ system. There are also some interesting guys in the draft like Joshua Perry of Ohio State. Just not sure a rookie can fill this role with where the Pats are picking.
  6. Defensive Tackle – Bringing back Akiem Hicks would be a great start and they also have to decide about Alan Branch in the next few days as he has an option due. Those two are probably tied to each other. But there’s also the fact that there are a ton of great DT fits in the draft. Hoping for one of them without a first round pick might be a fantasy though.

As for Corner, Guard and Defensive End, I think they only really need depth moves as those positions. Bring back Tarrell Brown and see how Ryan Wendell‘s feeling, that would pretty much solidify things before the draft where young corners and guards are always picks.

Report: Patriots release Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler

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The big news is starting to drop as Adam Schefter and Mike Reiss report that the Patriots have released Brandon LaFell and Scott Chandler. There was plenty of speculation that both players could be let go as both were disappointing in 2015 and effectively removed from the gameplan by the AFC Championship.

Analysis

I was okay keeping Brandon LaFell and thought he was worth the $3.675 million cap hit after a down year that saw him start the season on the PUP list with a nagging foot injury. He just never found any consistency and ended up with just 37 catches on 74 targets. He was impressive in 2014 and a vital part of the Super Bowl run. Belichick always praised his blocking work as well.

I thought it would enough to buy him one more year with the hope that being healthy and playing for a new contract would help him get back to his 2014.  But his absence from the gameplan against the Broncos after getting a bunch of targets against the Chiefs was pretty meaningful. Here we thought LaFell was finally a free agent wide receiver who clicked with Tom Brady. Not anymore.

As for Chandler, everyone had high hopes that he would join with Rob Gronkowski and form a lethal pair of Twin Towers, but Chandler just never seemed to click with Brady. He ended up with 23 catches on 42 targets and four touchdowns. It was worth a try with Chandler, but for all the clutch plays he made against the Patriots when he was with the Bills, he never came through in those big spots with the Patriots.

This will open up around $3.675 million in cap space, and likely makes Danny Amendola safe, at least from release. He still could be extended to reduce his cap hit.

More importantly it opens up two significant roles on the offense — the starting X receiver spot and the second tight end, of “F”. There are no obvious in-house candidates to fill those roles. Aaron Dobson and Keshawn Martin would be pencilled into the X spot for now. AJ Derby, who spent his rookie year on IR, is the only possible fill in at the F spot.

Mohamed Sanu and Dwayne Allen would be my favorite two candidates to add into these holes.

But the more space the Pats open up the more ability they’ll have to add some impactful players in free agency. Both of these positions will have to be addressed in some fashion in the next couple weeks.

Patriots 2016 Draft Fits Emerging

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Dont'a Hightower Patriots 2012 Draft Pick

Dont’a Hightower, one of the Patriots best draft picks.

In recent years I’ve been kind of burned out on the draft. It’s just so much speculation about an endless number of players, of which 10 might actually be taken by your team, and of those maybe two to five actually make an impact. Yes, there’s not much else to do during the offseason than looking for Patriots draft fits, but talking draft on twitter can be a full contact sport so I tend to keep my draft research and thoughts mostly to myself and really I think it serves me well to come to my own conclusions before I start comparing what I think to everyone else.

It’s even harder to really lock in on the draft before free agency even starts. What are needs right now might not be in a few weeks, or other areas where we think the Pats are set could suddenly become glaring needs with an unexpected release.

But this year I feel really good about the jump I’ve gotten on this year’s crop of prospects and already have a number of players who, regardless of need, are excellent fits for the Patriots.

The big issue I see with this year’s draft class is the depth of the defensive tackles and defensive ends. Neither are major areas of needs for the Patriots, but both are vital positions that you can really never have too much talent or depth at. If we’re still looking at the Patriots not drafting until the end of the second round, their potential pick will be extremely influenced by just how many of the DT and DEs are off the board.

And really, there’s so much talent there that if there’s a delay in the run on those players, I don’t think we can rule out taking a DT for the third-straight year, despite the needs elsewhere.

Patriots Draft Fits

The position that I’ll be most eagerly watching are the tackles. After the combine last week a number of players stood out with their athleticism and that’s just what I think the Patriots need. If I had to custom build a tackle for the Pats first pick it would be an athletic right tackle who can also play on the left side.

Jason Spriggs from Indiana is one to watch and hopefully he falls. He hit on all 10 of the Pats desired measurables per Doug Kyed of NESN. Only thing about him is that he might be destined for left tackle, and those guys go faster than those for the right side even though the difference has been slowly eroding.

An under the radar tackle is Willie Beavers of Western Michigan, who played the left side in college but has the traits to play just about anywhere on the line. Only knock for him is that he doesn’t quite have the ideal size, measuring in at 6’4″, but still weighs 324.

Another player who has jumped out at me a bit is a local kid, Boston College’s Justin Simmons. Yes, he had the best three-cone time and we know what that means to the Patriots, but I also think he’s a fascinating fit on the defense to develop in the Patrick Chung role. He has balance to play both free and strong safety, and though he’s a bit lanky he’s still a willing tackler. He also hit seven-of-ten desired measurables.

What’s most intriguing to me is his size at 6’2″. Being able to deal with bigger tight ends and slot receivers is becoming a key trait for strong safeties in the Pats system. Chung did an excellent job last year, but still struggled at times because he’s just not big enough to deal with guys who are 6’5″ all the time. Someone like Simmons would be an interesting tool to develop alongside Jordan Richards as the Pats look to the future at the position.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS:  | 2015 Adjusted Games Lost – Patriots 29th in NFL

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New England and Washington were the only teams ranked 20th or worse in AGL to make the playoffs.

Source: FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2015 Adjusted Games Lost

Football Outsiders always does a good job at quantifying just how impactful injuries are to teams by specifically looking each player who was lost and what their true impact was.

Not surprisingly the Pats come in at 29th overall with only Ravens, Redskins and Giants being hit harder by injuries in 2015. The Pats were 12th overall in 2014.

Nate Solder has to be the most impactful injury of the year because of the trickle-down effect it had on the rest of the line. They just didn’t have another tackle athletic enough to fill in for him and were left with the up-and-down performances of Sebastian Vollmer, Marcus Cannon, Cameron Fleming and even a tackle cameo by Bryan Stork.

Dion Lewis was the biggest buzzkill injury of the year after coming out of nowhere to look like Barry Sanders in the first seven games of the season. It’s hard to fathom just what the Patriots would’ve looked like at the end of the season if Lewis was still in the mix even with the problems at tackle. Of course then losing LeGarrette Blount on top of Lewis only decimated the running back position even more and essentially made the Pats a pass-only team in the playoffs–never a good combination for a Super Bowl run.

Losing Julian Edelman for the last seven games of the regular season was certainly a big blow as well. He returned and was effective in the playoffs but would’ve still been a lot more dangerous without the plate in his foot.

Still, despite all these injuries the Pats still came within a missed field goal/failed two point conversion of taking the Super Bowl champs to overtime on their homefield. That’s a testament to just how tough Bill Belichick’s teams always seem to be.

Report: Tom Brady signs two-year contract extension with Patriots

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Tom Brady has said he wants to play into his 40s and now with a new two-year contract extension with the New England Patriots, he has a deal in place that will take him to 42. The deal was first reported by Adam Schefter with this tweet:

The deal would last through the 2019 season, which would take Brady to a clean 20 years with the Patriots. But more importantly, Brady’s extension should lower his projected 2016 cap hit of $15 million.  Last week Jeff Howe reported the Pats hadn’t had any conversations with any of their pending free agents or extension candidates but now it seems like Brady was the priority and who can complain about that?

tom brady snow art

 

This changes the dynamic that was setting up to make 2017 a big question mark when both Brady and Jimmy Garoppolo‘s contracts were due to be up. You wondered then if that would open the door for Garoppolo to take over for Brady, but now it appears Brady isn’t going anywhere and that the Patriots feel comfortable enough with his level of play that they think he’s got at least two more elite seasons left and more likely three.

As for the fourth and final year of the deal, who knows where Brady or the Patriots will be at. Not many high end players see the final year of their deals with the Patriots, but Brady is obviously in a class by himself.

As for Garoppolo, Shefter said on WEEI that he didn’t think the Pats would trade their 2014 second-round pick. Though we haven’t seen much if any decline from Brady, it is comforting to have a knowledgeable and promising backup behind a quarterback pushing 40. Still, I think if the price was right, the Pats would have to consider moving Garoppolo, if not this season, then next, entering the final year of his deal. Or they could just hang on to him, hope he signs a significant free agent deal after 2017 and the Pats will get a compensatory pick for him.

However it plays out, this is great news that Brady’s got four more years to get that decisive fifth Super Bowl.