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Patriots Free Agency Analysis: Value Strikes Again

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No one values value more than Bill Belichick and that’s just what has been on display once again in Patriots free agency this year. In years past, I took a look at just how Belichick maximizes value, turning single draft picks into multiple players and future draft picks.

The 28th overall pick in the 2007 draft was turned into Randy Moss, Jerod Mayo, Shawn Crable, Ryan Mallet and then this year’s 7th rounder from Houston that they got for Mallet. That’s right, nine years later the value of that one pick is still paying dividends.

The 23rd overall pick in 2009 was turned into Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, Darius Butler and Brandon Tate. Gronk and Edelman are the core of the Patriots offensive weaponry, while Butler and Tate have gone on to have solid pro careers even though not in New England.

This is what Belichick understands, that the draft is a crapshoot and even when you get good players they often get injured. The only way to consistently build a good football team that can overcome the under-performance and injuries that plague all professional football teams is to have quality depth and always work to strengthen that depth.

This philosophy was on display once again yesterday when the Patriots effectively flipped Chandler Jones for a 2nd round pick, and a once-promising guard in Jonathan Cooper, while also adding defensive end Chris Long at less than half what Jones was scheduled to make. Jones was a talented player who would’ve made an impact for the Patriots in 2016, but the long-term health and overall depth of the franchise is once again what the Patriots gained by making these kind of trades and acquisitions.

Long has had two years of injuries, but had never missed a game prior to 2014. It’s very possible that Long will rejuvenate his career if he can stay healthy in New England, and could easily be a more impactful pass rusher than Jones would’ve been. At the very least, Long will likely get his first taste of the playoffs and by that time he should be playing with his hair on fire. That’s the kind of play that helps you win championships.

As for Cooper, the Patriots loved him coming out of college but never had a shot at him as he went 7th overall in 2013. This is what makes the Patriots even more impressive, they rarely get a chance at the best talent in the draft. Instead they have to wait until they either fall out of favor or have their careers derailed by injuries. That’s when they pounce. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

Screen Shot 2016-03-15 at 12.50.50 PMThere’s no denying Cooper has talent and if he can find a way to rekindle that, the Patriots will have improved a vital part of their offensive line. If anyone can get to Cooper, it’s Dante Scarnecchia.

But perhaps most important is the second round pick. The Patriots now have both the 60th and 61st picks in the draft, and by the draft value chart that’s enough to package and get them all the way into the top of the second round, if not the late first round. That kind of flexibility is invaluable and opens up a number of doors that were closed to them without it.

Once again, it’s all about value, and with 11 draft picks the Patriots have the ammo to do as they please during draft day, maximizing each and every pick not only for this year but for the years to come.

 

 

Patriots Sign Chris Long

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After shipping Chandler Jones to Arizona, the Patriots signed Chris Long to fill the hole in their defensive end rotation late Tuesday night.

Long was released by the Rams earlier in the offseason after an injury-riddled 2014 spilled over into 2015, knocking the former second-overall pick from the ranks of elite NFL pass rushers. Long has 54.5 sacks in his eight year career and hadn’t missed a game until 2014.

His best two seasons were 2011 and 2012 when he had 24.5 sacks. But since then it’s been two years to forget with the Rams, though I’m sure most of them were pretty forgettable when they were losing so many games. Still, Long was a big part of one of the better defenses in the league, despite their record.

Perhaps most telling is that Long has never been to the playoffs. Signing a one-year contract with the Patriots almost certainly figures to change that. He’ll be trying to follow a long list of one-year hired guns who were able to revive their career with the Pats then go on to sign a significant contract elsewhere.

Long will be just 31 later this month and should still have something left in the tank to give the Pats. After letting Jones go, the Pats figure to have Rob Ninkovich and Jabaal Sheard as their starters, with Long, Trey Flowers, Geneo Grissom and Rufus Johnson competing to be part of the rotation or at least a designated pass rusher.

That’s what should help Long more than anything, not being forced to play every down and being selectively positioned to excel and do what he does best — get after the passer. If Long can revive his explosive get off the Patriots upgraded their pass rush on this day.

 

Patriots Trade Chandler Jones to Cardinals

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That didn’t take long. Shortly after I was laying out why Pats could trade Chandler Jones, the Patriots trade Chandler Jones to the Arizona Cardinals for guard Jonathan Cooper and a 2nd round pick. Cooper was the seventh-overall pick in the 2013 draft but had fallen out of favor in Arizona after getting sidelined with an injury.

The second round pick is a major addition to the Pats draft ammo, and gives them even more ability to climb up the draft board since they don’t have a first round pick. This also clears another $7 million from the Pats salary cap, taking them to the neighborhood of $17.6 million in space.

As for Jones, the writing was on the wall and it seems like one of the few times many could see a Patriots blockbuster move coming. Jabaal Sheard and Rob Ninkovich are the top two starters at defensive end, with second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom in the mix to take the third rotational spot.

We also can’t rule out Chris Long, who makes a lot more sense now, or a significant draft pick from a deep defensive end class coming out of college.

Cooper + Scarnecchia = Exciting

Though Cooper fell down the depth chart in Arizona, he seems like the perfect kind of guard for the Patriots system. Here’s his bottom line scouting report from NFL.com:

Cooper, an extremely athletic left guard, racked up a number of all-conference awards during his four years starting, capping it off with a first-team All-American selection as a senior. He has the athleticism to play in a number of different schemes. Due to his ability to lead the way on runs and outstanding pass protection skills, he figured to be the first guard selected in the draft.

Now Cooper enters the Danta Scarnecchia school of offensive lineman-ing, an education that has transformed far less talented players into impact contributors. He’ll compete with second-year players Tre Jackson and Shaq Mason, and veteran Josh Klein for a starting spot.

It’s not hard to see why this move made sense on multiple levels. The Pats get a young and talented player at a spot of relative need, but also get a vital draft pick to help them this year. The extra cap space can be applied to players who are certainly needed long-term like Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Jabaal Sheard and Malcolm Butler.

Should the Patriots Trade Chandler Jones?

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It’s been mentioned quite a bit this offseason, and today’s piece from Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com lays the scenario out pretty well — should the Patriots trade Chandler Jones? If there’s anything this offseason made clear, any pass rusher with a heartbeat is getting paid through the roof these days, and Jones certainly has the surface numbers to easily put him out of the Patriots’ price range next offseason.

Jones has 36 sacks in his first four years, including a career-high 12.5 last season. For someone who doesn’t watch the games Jones appears on paper to be a force, but a closer look at those numbers certainly gives cause for concern. The playoffs are an easy place to start. Here are his stats:

Nothing really jumps off the page there, does it? The last three times the Patriots were eliminated from the postseason, Jones total stats are two tackles. That’s it.

Of course it’s not all about sacks. The Patriots ask their defensive ends to do a lot of different things. For instance in Super Bowl 49, containing Russell Wilson was a bigger key that sacking him, and Jones did a good job in that regard. I’m not going to make the argument that Jones isn’t a good player. He is, but he’s inconsistent and often invisible in the biggest games, and I don’t think he has the consistency or the desired demeanor the Patriots want when giving out long term deals.

Last year’s synthetic marijuana incident certainly didn’t help Jones’ cause, but it was still surprising to see Jabaal Sheard get more snaps than Jones in both playoff games. But it’s not a stretch to think Jones was passed on the depth chart for the playoffs and reduced to the sub-package pass rusher role even without the strange off-field incident during the playoff bye week.

Jones was miked up last year against the Redskins and I thought one particular pregame pep talk from Matt Patricia stuck out to me, summing up what I, and apparently the coaches, think about Chandler.

Patricia said “you’re a great player, you need to be great every week.” The other part was in essence ‘you’re too good not to be productive every week’.

Patriots In Control

The Patriots are in a good position with Jones regardless. He’ll be playing for his next contract this season and usually that adds up to career years for good players. So that’s a double edge sword. The Pats get a great season from an impact player but it will also be the final nail in the coffin for his days in New England. If he walks to a big free agent deal, the Pats still get a compensatory selection.

With the report of Chris Long visiting, it only puts a bigger spotlight on the defensive end position. Sign Long and you have plenty of depth to deal Jones. Not to mention how promising second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom could take big steps forward this year. Even without Long, it’s not insane to think the Pats could ship Jones. They did it to Richard Seymour with even less depth behind him.

There’s much uncertainty at the defensive end spot beyond this year. Rob Ninkovich, Sheard and Jones are all in the last years of their deal. Sheard would be my priority. He plays the way the Patriots want their defensive ends to play, with a toughness that jumps off the tape.

I can’t say the same for Chandler Jones. He’s athletic and strong, and can get to the quarterback in spurts. But week in and week out I truly believe the Patriots want more out of him. If they were to move Jones this offseason, and it could happen all the way up until the week before the season opener, they’d have to have Long in the fold or believe that Grissom or Flowers is ready to step into a rotational third DE role.

But again, the Pats are in the driver’s seat. They might not have Jones long-term, but they can still hope to get some playoff production out of him for one last season before he moves on. Or they can jettison him now and turn him into a draft pick that will be one or two rounds higher than the compensatory selection they’d get in 2018.

For the right deal, they shouldn’t hesitate to move him now, but I think the real action will come the first week of September after Flowers or Grissom have proven themselves and other teams have needs due to injuries.

 

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The 2014 Patriots Super Bowl Ring Ceremony | NFL Films Presents

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yF8U2bhm5_0

This is what it’s all about, the 2014 Patriots Super Bowl ring ceremony! Always fun to get a look behind the scenes and there’s no other scene I’d rather go behind this one.

Looking back, it’s amazing how different this offseason already is. Yes, of course we still have Deflategate, but in a strange way I find seasons with disappointing ends to be more motivating. It all stems from the 2005 Broncos playoff loss, the first of Belichick and Brady’s career. I remember it was that game that told the cold hard truth that Belichick and Brady weren’t unbeatable in the playoffs and that there was a very real expiration date on their dynasty run. That was the loss that propelled me into the online world of Patriots messageboards and later, blogging.

Now, 10 years later, we’re all still going strong, but time is running out. Still, nice to take a moment an appreciate the latest Super Bowl victory just one more time.

 

Chris Long and Eric Weddle (Maybe) Visiting Patriots

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Couple of interesting visits being reported today, with veterans Chris Long and Eric Weddle taking a tour of Gillette Stadium and possibly working out for the Patriots. Neither position, defensive end nor safety, are among the top needs for the Pats, which makes the possible additions of these two players interesting.

Note – Tom E. Curran just tweeted this so take the Weddle visit with a grain of salt:

Let’s start with Long. Look, I don’t see how anyone could ever say no to a second overall pick who is just turning 31 in 11 days known for his high motor. There’s no question that Long’s production dipped last season, but you can never ever have too much pass rush in this league. How would Long potentially fit? Well, it’s certainly a log jam with Rob Ninkovich, Chandler Jones and Jabaal Sheard atop the depth chart, with second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom, along with Rufus Johnson in the mix.

Long has spent his career going forward, not dropping into space, something the Pats do like to do with their defensive ends at times. However, in a sub pass rusher role, where he could be moved around while also having his snaps managed a bit away from running downs, it could make sense schematically. After eight long seasons with the Rams, Long might be rejuvenated playing for a team like New England, and even a two-year deal would give the Pats a tiny bit of security with Ninkovich, Jones and Sheard all entering the last years of their deals.

As always, it will likely just come down to money, but Long is just the kind of situation where you can’t rule out him taking a low-end offer to have a shot to play with the big bad Patriots.

As for Weddle, it’s a little harder to see the fit as ideally he’d play Devin McCourty‘s free safety role. Still, Weddle can do it all on the back end and is as smart as they come. Again, the Pats are pretty set with their top three safety rotation from the last two years, with second year player Jordan Richards filling in from time to time.

So you have to wonder how Weddle would fit. Would he allow McCourty to stay at free safety at all times instead of using him in tight end coverage from time to time? Those were the snaps Duron Harmon would come on and cover the back end. Or would he compete directly with Patrick Chung for the strong safety spot who primarily plays in the box and covered tight ends on early downs? Chung is coming off his best year as a pro and is signed through 2017 with very manageable cap hits. Weddle is also three years older than Chung.

Here’s the bottom line, the Pats have given plenty of former star veterans from shitty teams a chance to come and compete for jobs, even when there isn’t a clear fit. Rodney Harrison, the last safety to make the jump from the Chargers, is a great example. With two talented guys like Long and Weddle, if you can make the finances work, it’s a no-brainer to add them to the squad and see how it all plays out.

Both players will undoubtedly have a number of teams interested, many of which will pay more than the Pats will. But we have the Patriots winning tradition going for us and you can never rule out players wanting a real chance at a ring.

 

Sunday Patriots Roundup

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Things have been quiet this weekend for the Pats as free agency settles in and loses the frantic pace. This is when the Pats do their damage as value comes to the forefront.

Saturday’s re-signing of Nate Ebner was expected because really, who values great special teams free agents more than the Patriots? Ebner has been another one of those fascinating draft stories, going from a rugby player, to bit player on the Ohio State football team to suddenly being draft by the only team who could see his potential.

Ebner hasn’t been a total stranger to defensive snaps either, usually in the early part of the season, seeing time at both free and strong safety. But special teams are his bread and butter, and with the departure of Tavon Wilson, Ebner’s return provides some stability.

In visit news…

Even Jets fans have seemed to know Kerley was then kind of player that has Patriots written on him. Without a role in Chan Gailey’s offense, the Jets cut Kerley loose. He had 56 catches in 2012, but that production has fallen off each season, but he still seems like he’d be a good fit in the slot for the Pats.

That sets up an interesting situation with Danny Amendola. We’ve been waiting for the Pats to re-structure/extend Amendola’s contract for the second season in a row — he’s due to make $5 million with a $6.8 million cap hit. If the Pats were to bring Kerley into the fold, especially for something in the $2 million range, it would put even more pressure on Amendola.

Don’t get me wrong, Amendola is a valued receiver on this team. He came through with a number of big plays/catches over the last two seasons, but still, he’s 30, had more injury issues last year and is due to make more money than any other receiver. We also saw last year that it’s not quite so simple to say he can fill in for Edelman. Amendola can’t take that beating and is best served as the third wide receiver who plays out of the slot.

Perhaps having Kerley would help protect both Amendola and Edelman. But there’s no denying Kerley could fill Amendola’s role both in the slot and returning punts. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Couple nuggets from the Sunday columns:

Mike Reiss has Tre Jackson getting a knee scope after missing the two playoff games.

Chris Price has some insight on the Pats’ rumored interest in Chris Long. Always loved Long as a twitter follow, and for a low cost deal I’d be all for bringing him in but I still don’t see the need at defensive end. Extend Sheard, work something out with Ninkovich next season and groom Trey Flowers and Geneo Grissom. Chandler Jones is going to make a huge sum of money next season, the Pats should just milk this contract year out of him and let him go.