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Should the Patriots Trade Chandler Jones?

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It’s been mentioned quite a bit this offseason, and today’s piece from Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com lays the scenario out pretty well — should the Patriots trade Chandler Jones? If there’s anything this offseason made clear, any pass rusher with a heartbeat is getting paid through the roof these days, and Jones certainly has the surface numbers to easily put him out of the Patriots’ price range next offseason.

Jones has 36 sacks in his first four years, including a career-high 12.5 last season. For someone who doesn’t watch the games Jones appears on paper to be a force, but a closer look at those numbers certainly gives cause for concern. The playoffs are an easy place to start. Here are his stats:

Nothing really jumps off the page there, does it? The last three times the Patriots were eliminated from the postseason, Jones total stats are two tackles. That’s it.

Of course it’s not all about sacks. The Patriots ask their defensive ends to do a lot of different things. For instance in Super Bowl 49, containing Russell Wilson was a bigger key that sacking him, and Jones did a good job in that regard. I’m not going to make the argument that Jones isn’t a good player. He is, but he’s inconsistent and often invisible in the biggest games, and I don’t think he has the consistency or the desired demeanor the Patriots want when giving out long term deals.

Last year’s synthetic marijuana incident certainly didn’t help Jones’ cause, but it was still surprising to see Jabaal Sheard get more snaps than Jones in both playoff games. But it’s not a stretch to think Jones was passed on the depth chart for the playoffs and reduced to the sub-package pass rusher role even without the strange off-field incident during the playoff bye week.

Jones was miked up last year against the Redskins and I thought one particular pregame pep talk from Matt Patricia stuck out to me, summing up what I, and apparently the coaches, think about Chandler.

Patricia said “you’re a great player, you need to be great every week.” The other part was in essence ‘you’re too good not to be productive every week’.

Patriots In Control

The Patriots are in a good position with Jones regardless. He’ll be playing for his next contract this season and usually that adds up to career years for good players. So that’s a double edge sword. The Pats get a great season from an impact player but it will also be the final nail in the coffin for his days in New England. If he walks to a big free agent deal, the Pats still get a compensatory selection.

With the report of Chris Long visiting, it only puts a bigger spotlight on the defensive end position. Sign Long and you have plenty of depth to deal Jones. Not to mention how promising second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom could take big steps forward this year. Even without Long, it’s not insane to think the Pats could ship Jones. They did it to Richard Seymour with even less depth behind him.

There’s much uncertainty at the defensive end spot beyond this year. Rob Ninkovich, Sheard and Jones are all in the last years of their deal. Sheard would be my priority. He plays the way the Patriots want their defensive ends to play, with a toughness that jumps off the tape.

I can’t say the same for Chandler Jones. He’s athletic and strong, and can get to the quarterback in spurts. But week in and week out I truly believe the Patriots want more out of him. If they were to move Jones this offseason, and it could happen all the way up until the week before the season opener, they’d have to have Long in the fold or believe that Grissom or Flowers is ready to step into a rotational third DE role.

But again, the Pats are in the driver’s seat. They might not have Jones long-term, but they can still hope to get some playoff production out of him for one last season before he moves on. Or they can jettison him now and turn him into a draft pick that will be one or two rounds higher than the compensatory selection they’d get in 2018.

For the right deal, they shouldn’t hesitate to move him now, but I think the real action will come the first week of September after Flowers or Grissom have proven themselves and other teams have needs due to injuries.

 

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The 2014 Patriots Super Bowl Ring Ceremony | NFL Films Presents

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yF8U2bhm5_0

This is what it’s all about, the 2014 Patriots Super Bowl ring ceremony! Always fun to get a look behind the scenes and there’s no other scene I’d rather go behind this one.

Looking back, it’s amazing how different this offseason already is. Yes, of course we still have Deflategate, but in a strange way I find seasons with disappointing ends to be more motivating. It all stems from the 2005 Broncos playoff loss, the first of Belichick and Brady’s career. I remember it was that game that told the cold hard truth that Belichick and Brady weren’t unbeatable in the playoffs and that there was a very real expiration date on their dynasty run. That was the loss that propelled me into the online world of Patriots messageboards and later, blogging.

Now, 10 years later, we’re all still going strong, but time is running out. Still, nice to take a moment an appreciate the latest Super Bowl victory just one more time.

 

Chris Long and Eric Weddle (Maybe) Visiting Patriots

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Couple of interesting visits being reported today, with veterans Chris Long and Eric Weddle taking a tour of Gillette Stadium and possibly working out for the Patriots. Neither position, defensive end nor safety, are among the top needs for the Pats, which makes the possible additions of these two players interesting.

Note – Tom E. Curran just tweeted this so take the Weddle visit with a grain of salt:

Let’s start with Long. Look, I don’t see how anyone could ever say no to a second overall pick who is just turning 31 in 11 days known for his high motor. There’s no question that Long’s production dipped last season, but you can never ever have too much pass rush in this league. How would Long potentially fit? Well, it’s certainly a log jam with Rob Ninkovich, Chandler Jones and Jabaal Sheard atop the depth chart, with second-year players Tre Flowers and Geneo Grissom, along with Rufus Johnson in the mix.

Long has spent his career going forward, not dropping into space, something the Pats do like to do with their defensive ends at times. However, in a sub pass rusher role, where he could be moved around while also having his snaps managed a bit away from running downs, it could make sense schematically. After eight long seasons with the Rams, Long might be rejuvenated playing for a team like New England, and even a two-year deal would give the Pats a tiny bit of security with Ninkovich, Jones and Sheard all entering the last years of their deals.

As always, it will likely just come down to money, but Long is just the kind of situation where you can’t rule out him taking a low-end offer to have a shot to play with the big bad Patriots.

As for Weddle, it’s a little harder to see the fit as ideally he’d play Devin McCourty‘s free safety role. Still, Weddle can do it all on the back end and is as smart as they come. Again, the Pats are pretty set with their top three safety rotation from the last two years, with second year player Jordan Richards filling in from time to time.

So you have to wonder how Weddle would fit. Would he allow McCourty to stay at free safety at all times instead of using him in tight end coverage from time to time? Those were the snaps Duron Harmon would come on and cover the back end. Or would he compete directly with Patrick Chung for the strong safety spot who primarily plays in the box and covered tight ends on early downs? Chung is coming off his best year as a pro and is signed through 2017 with very manageable cap hits. Weddle is also three years older than Chung.

Here’s the bottom line, the Pats have given plenty of former star veterans from shitty teams a chance to come and compete for jobs, even when there isn’t a clear fit. Rodney Harrison, the last safety to make the jump from the Chargers, is a great example. With two talented guys like Long and Weddle, if you can make the finances work, it’s a no-brainer to add them to the squad and see how it all plays out.

Both players will undoubtedly have a number of teams interested, many of which will pay more than the Pats will. But we have the Patriots winning tradition going for us and you can never rule out players wanting a real chance at a ring.

 

Sunday Patriots Roundup

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Things have been quiet this weekend for the Pats as free agency settles in and loses the frantic pace. This is when the Pats do their damage as value comes to the forefront.

Saturday’s re-signing of Nate Ebner was expected because really, who values great special teams free agents more than the Patriots? Ebner has been another one of those fascinating draft stories, going from a rugby player, to bit player on the Ohio State football team to suddenly being draft by the only team who could see his potential.

Ebner hasn’t been a total stranger to defensive snaps either, usually in the early part of the season, seeing time at both free and strong safety. But special teams are his bread and butter, and with the departure of Tavon Wilson, Ebner’s return provides some stability.

In visit news…

Even Jets fans have seemed to know Kerley was then kind of player that has Patriots written on him. Without a role in Chan Gailey’s offense, the Jets cut Kerley loose. He had 56 catches in 2012, but that production has fallen off each season, but he still seems like he’d be a good fit in the slot for the Pats.

That sets up an interesting situation with Danny Amendola. We’ve been waiting for the Pats to re-structure/extend Amendola’s contract for the second season in a row — he’s due to make $5 million with a $6.8 million cap hit. If the Pats were to bring Kerley into the fold, especially for something in the $2 million range, it would put even more pressure on Amendola.

Don’t get me wrong, Amendola is a valued receiver on this team. He came through with a number of big plays/catches over the last two seasons, but still, he’s 30, had more injury issues last year and is due to make more money than any other receiver. We also saw last year that it’s not quite so simple to say he can fill in for Edelman. Amendola can’t take that beating and is best served as the third wide receiver who plays out of the slot.

Perhaps having Kerley would help protect both Amendola and Edelman. But there’s no denying Kerley could fill Amendola’s role both in the slot and returning punts. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Couple nuggets from the Sunday columns:

Mike Reiss has Tre Jackson getting a knee scope after missing the two playoff games.

Chris Price has some insight on the Pats’ rumored interest in Chris Long. Always loved Long as a twitter follow, and for a low cost deal I’d be all for bringing him in but I still don’t see the need at defensive end. Extend Sheard, work something out with Ninkovich next season and groom Trey Flowers and Geneo Grissom. Chandler Jones is going to make a huge sum of money next season, the Pats should just milk this contract year out of him and let him go.

Patriots Free Agency: Land DT Kearse, Sign WR Hogan to Offer Sheet

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Patriots Free Agency Chris Hogan

Things are slowly starting to ramp up for the New England Patriots in free agency. After a quiet first day, and a second day filled with visits, the team has reportedly signed Bills wide receiver Chris Hogan to an offer sheet and also signed defensive tackle Frank Kearse.

Hogan fills a definite need at the receiver spot and can be pencilled into Brandon LaFell‘s spot, for now. He checks all the boxes the Pats look for, but doesn’t come with the kind of previous production that would get fans excited. Still, he’s big, athletic and can play any of the receiver spots in the Pats system. But most importantly (to Bill Belichick), Hogan is a former lacrosse standout and can also punt. Is there anything BB loves more than lacrosse and versatility? Nope.

Now we’ll see if Hogan can truly live up to his always-open 7-11 nickname with the best quarterback he’s ever played with. That is assuming the Bills don’t move salary cap mountains to retain their third receiver. With Rex you never know.

Frank Kearse was the 53rd man on the Redskins last year. Again, that gets no one excited but if you read this article about the kind of player he is you’ll quickly understand why the Patriots pursued him. In a lot of ways the signing of Kearse embodies what I ranted about earlier today with the Pats and free agency. Kearse isn’t being pencilled into a starters spot, but you know if injuries strike he’s going to be ready, working his tail off and will compete his ass off.

 

To the Patriots Free Agency Whiners

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Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski celebrate a touchdown.

Why doesn’t every team win 12 games every year?

Another year of Patriots free agency, another year of the sad sack Patriots free agency whiners about their approach. You’d think after nine years of blogging about the team and being on social media so much that I’d be used to it. Or maybe that after 15 years of Patriots domination the whiners would be silenced a bit, but on they go, undeterred because the Pats didn’t go out and spend on a big name.

Here’s the misconception about free agency — it’s actually a benefit not to have to spend a billion dollars on a player who has never done anything for your team, without any guarantee that they will ever do anything for your team. We see it year in and year out. The shitty teams that can’t draft or can’t win enough to maintain any kind of stability have to go out and find talent, because they believe talent wins games. Or at the very least, they need to win games and win them quickly to keep their jobs.

I think the Patriots have proven that yes, you certainly need talent in some spots, especially quarterback, but teams win games, not talent. Look at the Colts last year. Talented quarterback. They go out and surround him with a spending spree of free agents and what happens? A couple injuries here and there, the new guys never click and everything else just falls apart, including that talented quarterback.

So while teams are out spending a ton of dough on guys who had one or two good (not even great) years for other teams under other circumstances, teams like the Patriots can focus their resources on the things that do win games — BUILDING A TEAM.

Patriots Free Agency Whiners Forget it’s About 1-53

Health is as big a factor in a Super Bowl winning season as just about anything else. The 2014 Patriots only had one significant injury loss — Jerod Mayo. The 2015 Broncos were largely healthy as well, except for the number father time did on Peyton Manning and his neck/arm/etc. What happens when that guy you’re paying $20 million a year gets hurt? Or has a bad year? The next man up is certainly making less than he should be, and is likely an after thought in the team-building equation.

Can that guy step in and do the job that Rob Ninkovich has done since coming over as a free agent afterthought in 2009? Or that Patrick Chung has done since his return as a free agent afterthought? Or Jabar Gaffney? Or Danny Woodhead? Or Mike Vrabel? Or Roman Phifer? Or Antowain Smith? Yes, the list goes on and on and the same people who could’ve cared less about those acquisitions at the time could care less about the same under-the-radar signings that are happening now.

How quickly Patriots free agency whiners forget Mike Vrabel was one of the best Patriots under-the-radar acquisitions.Players like those are why the Patriots can have an injury-riddled season like 2013 or 2015 and still not only win the division, but host a playoff game and go to the AFC Championship. Because they are a strong and deep team filled with 53 guys who all buy in, who all want it and who are all ready to step in and “do their job”.

It’s not a handful of highly-paid top end guys who are magically still playing their balls off even though their net worth is approaching $100 million, while surrounded by underpaid but over-performing and unbreakable back ups and role players.

I think a lot of spoiled Patriots fans lose sight of how special this run is. How hard it is to consistently win in the salary cap era. Not to mention when you’re doing it without almost ever having a draft pick in the top half of the first round, where all the special rookie talent is usually snapped up.

Some might want to put it all on Belichick and Brady, as if you could put 21 morons out there and they’d somehow figure out a way to pull out 12-win season after 12-win season. But that’s not the case.

And it goes back to Scott Pioli’s quote, “We’re building a team, not collecting talent.”

Or from Belichick himself, “This is a football team. It’s not a bunch of guys in the same jersey running around out there. This is a football team. And for 60 minutes you’re gonna have to deal with all of us and it’s gonna be a long night.”

Free agency really is for losers if you think you’re going to buy your way to year in and year out Super Bowl contention. Internal player development, drafting well and rounding out your depth with solid and under appreciated free agents is for winners.

Patriots Bargain Bin Visits Continue

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More visits to Foxboro are being reported with RB James Starks, TE Clay Harbor and WR Rod Streater the latest bargain bin free agents to take a tour of facilities. I know none of these names get people excited, but again, it’s just what the Pats do, and all of them fit needs.

Biggest thing to take away from free agency so far, at least based on rumored interest and visits, is that we were pretty dead on with what the Patriots viewed as their needs that must be filled during the silly season. For all the attention that the offensive line got in the wake of the season-ender, it was indeed the skill positions that needed reinforcements.

Harbor seems like a decent option to fill the second TE role that was vacated by Scott Chandler. Here’s what Bill Belichick had to say on Harbor this past season:

Streater is one of the more interesting players and was pointed out by Mike Reiss as an under-the-radar type:

The five-year veteran had 60 catches for 888 yards and four touchdowns in 2013 for the Raiders, but has fallen off the radar since — first because of injury in 2014 and then as a result of a scheme/coaching change and stacked depth chart that remained healthy in 2015. He’s the type of undervalued asset on the market that could be appealing to the Patriots at a position of need.

Streater was the Raiders number one receiver during that 2013 season and if he had put up those numbers last year it would certainly be getting people’s attention. Interestingly, no one could really tell why he fell out of favor last season with the new regime.

Finally comes Starks, who is coming off a career-best 601 yards rushing and 392 yards receiving. Starks has good size (6’1″, 203) and would seem to fit the bill for a do-it-all back in the Pats’ system.

There’s just no telling how these guys would blossom in New England. Two of them would be coming from teams that have had far-worse quarterbacks than Tom Brady. Can they pick up the system? How will they respond to a system that is cemented in place and expects them to be in the exact right spot after making post-snap reads? This mostly applies to Streater, but it’s also easy to insert Harbor and Starks into the holes the Pats have and expect they’d be okay.

That’s ultimately what free agency is about. Players like these set the stage before the draft, enabling the Pats to not have to reach to fill a need. And if the perfect tight end, running back or receiver falls to them it could make any one of these low risk free agents expendable.